Han and Eric's (Not-So) Controversial Predictions of 2023

[TwoMisfits]

So, with Disney struggling so much to bring family audiences out b/c of widespread D+ adoption, why would The Little Mermaid be the movie that bucks that trend, especially with so many live action remakes being released as solely D+ events?  I'm struggling to see Cinemark one-movie-a-month subscribers not going for GOTG 3 or Fast X in May and the Spidey or Transformers in June and skipping this entirely at full price.

 

And, as a non-animated, I also don't see it becoming the swim team/summer camp movie, so it won't make up for a subpar initial outing later.

 

So, all in all - I think the Memorial Day curse comes back b/c this won't top Aladdin and it won't be close...I'd be in any under $300M club for this movie there is...

[Verrows]

18 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, with Disney struggling so much to bring family audiences out b/c of widespread D+ adoption, why would The Little Mermaid be the movie that bucks that trend, especially with so many live action remakes being released as solely D+ events?  I'm struggling to see Cinemark one-movie-a-month subscribers not going for GOTG 3 or Fast X in May and the Spidey or Transformers in June and skipping this entirely at full price.

 

And, as a non-animated, I also don't see it becoming the swim team/summer camp movie, so it won't make up for a subpar initial outing later.

 

So, all in all - I think the Memorial Day curse comes back b/c this won't top Aladdin and it won't be close...I'd be in any under $300M club for this movie there is...

This makes me sad because you're usually bang on with these things. ☹️

[JWR]

We'll see, I guess. But I think their slate looks a lot more appealing in 2023.

[Grebacio]

34 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, with Disney struggling so much to bring family audiences out b/c of widespread D+ adoption, why would The Little Mermaid be the movie that bucks that trend, especially with so many live action remakes being released as solely D+ events?  I'm struggling to see Cinemark one-movie-a-month subscribers not going for GOTG 3 or Fast X in May and the Spidey or Transformers in June and skipping this entirely at full price.

 

I think there's could be some course correction if Black Panther 2, Avatar 2 and Ant-Man 3 have longer windows 

[YM!]

I think the remakes skew more adult than the animation because of the animation stigma so what effects the animation shouldn’t effect Mermaid. I mean, the Marvel movies would’ve done about the same without the pandemic.

 

As for the field trip comment, lol at Fast X and Transformers being superior choices when they skew more adult and are likely to do sub 150m.

Edited December 30, 2022 by YM!

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Verrows said:

This makes me sad because you're usually bang on with these things. ☹️

 

BUT, my girls are now older so way out of the princess phase...then again, I'm not sure a lot of today's girls (looking at my younger nieces) ever entered the princess phase, especially one about just finding a prince...so...

 

Yeah, those are my thoughts...could be 100% wrong...(and I'll watch this on D+ myself b/c did I mention my girls are older and my boys would never go for this:)...Spider-verse all the way for all 4 now.

 

In fact, I might join a Spiderverse over Little Mermaid club....that would be a helluva summer club (if I started clubs and if I loved the 1st more, I'd do it...but those visuals - I love the movie despite them, not b/c of them:)...

[cookie]

They should/should've moved one of the June releases to Labor Day, maybe Transformers. I don't know why studios haven't capitalized on that after Shang-Chi proved it could work.

Edited December 30, 2022 by cookie

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, YM! said:

I think the remakes skew more adult than the animation because of the animation stigma so what effects the animation shouldn’t effect Mermaid. I mean, the Marvel movies would’ve done about the same without the pandemic.

 

As for the field trip comment, lol at Fast X and Transformers being superior choices when they skew more adult and are likely to do sub 150m.

 

Nah, Elemental or Spider Verse will be the field trip/summer camp movie for June.  Gotta see what's in July to see if they get all summer...

[WrathOfHan]

I'm behind from traveling, will catch up momentarily (drink in hand)

[WrathOfHan]

May 5

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3: Calling it now: this will be the last non-Avengers MCU movie to hit 400M+ domestically for quite a while (Deadpool 3 is the only one that could fuck up the prediction...). Between James Gunn going across the aisle and several cast members signaling their exit from the MCU, there's a finale effect on top of being six years since the Guardians had a solo outing. GOTG2 already adjusts to 470M+ (maybe 500M in 2023 dollars), so unless the film pisses off audiences in some fashion, the floor will be high on this one. I don't think the roof extends far beyond 550-560M, but with a weak-ish May, you never know. 195/535 (2.74x)

[Verrows]

14 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

May 5

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3: Calling it now: this will be the last non-Avengers MCU movie to hit 400M+ domestically for quite a while (Deadpool 3 is the only one that could fuck up the prediction...). Between James Gunn going across the aisle and several cast members signaling their exit from the MCU, there's a finale effect on top of being six years since the Guardians had a solo outing. GOTG2 already adjusts to 470M+ (maybe 500M in 2023 dollars), so unless the film pisses off audiences in some fashion, the floor will be high on this one. I don't think the roof extends far beyond 550-560M, but with a weak-ish May, you never know. 195/535 (2.74x)

Out of likes but...

[WrathOfHan]

May 12

 

Book Club 2: This feels like a repeat of The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel. Both that and Book Club were modest hits with ginormous senior skews. The Second Best etc etc dropped 25% from its predecessor, and were it not for the pandemic/new audience habits, I'd predict the same for Book Club 2. However, between older audiences staying at home more and switching distributors from Paramount to Focus, I'd expect a slightly worse drop. It'll still do well given its budget and the state of studio comedies. 10/40 (4x)

 

Love Again: After being delayed from Valentines Day to Mother's Day, I can't tell what Sony wants to do with this. The last drama (I'm not counting Breaking In) to see a notable gross or hold over Mother's Day was The Age of Adaline in 2015, when it was already in week 3 and had WOM building. Priyanka won't be a big draw for the middle aged audience Sony is targeting unless they're going young with this, so who knows. 4/10 (2.5x)

[Eric the Fall Guy]

4 minutes ago, Verrows said:

Out of likes but...

https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/subscriptions/

[WrathOfHan]

May 19

 

Fast X: F9 killed off a lot of goodwill this franchise had. Louis Letterier is (obviously) a big downgrade from Justin Lin, and we know Universal is spiraling from production drama. Jason Momoa and Brie Larson joining mean nothing at this point, and no one cares about Gal Gadot's revival if she even makes the final cut. Will there even be a big, stupid, over the top setpiece that one-ups going into space? With an eleventh and presumably final installment on the way, this sounds like another FILLER Fast film, and it'll die furiously after Memorial Day. 60/140 (2.33x)

[WrathOfHan]

May 26

 

The Little Mermaid: Being the first theatrical, non-Disney+ remake of the post-COVID era brings some unpredictability here, especially for a big Disney classic. I truly don't know what to predict until we see the second trailer. If it looks fun with good visuals, it'll be a solid performer. If it becomes uncanny valley like The Lion King or too realistic, something closer to Cinderella or Maleficent makes sense in the current market. Best case scenario, it matches Aladdin's total (which was boosted by stellar WOM and a deflated opening from infamous marketing). I'll go somewhere in-between the two extremes for now. 70/90/250 (3.57x from 3 day/2.78x from 4 day)

 

About my Father: It's been a while since De Niro has done one of these comedies... oh boy. Well, The War with Grandpa was a pandemic "hit", so maybe there's still interest here. 6/8/24 (4x from 3 day/3x from 4 day)

Edited December 31, 2022 by WrathOfHan

[Eric the Fall Guy]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

May 26

 

The Little Mermaid: Being the first theatrical, non-Disney+ remake of the post-COVID era brings some unpredictability here, especially for a big Disney classic. I truly don't know what to predict until we see the second trailer. If it looks fun with good visuals, it'll be a solid performer. If it becomes uncanny valley like The Lion King or too realistic, something closer to Cinderella or Maleficent makes sense in the current market. Best case scenario, it matches Aladdin's total (which was boosted by stellar WOM and a deflated opening from infamous marketing). I'll go somewhere in-between the two extremes for now. 70/90/250 (3.57x from 3 day/2.78x from 4 day)

[WrathOfHan]

June 2

 

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse: This sequel will be a real test on whether Spider-Verse's audience will actually show up to theaters. The first was a WOM hit with a leggy run, and an increase is obviously in store. However, it didn't gain a good portion if not the majority of its audience until it hit Netflix in the summer. Would *only* a 60-70M opening be disappointing? Is 100M+ unrealistic? Could it even open to 120-140M? There are many variables at play here, and I think the higher the opening, the worse legs will be. I'll go with a modest guess here that will surely change closer to release. 80/260 (3.25x)

[Eric the Fall Guy]

WAIT YOU'RE DOING JUNE ENTRIES?

 

FUUUUUUUUCK NOW I HAVE TO PUT MINE UP TOO

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, Eric in Boots said:

WAIT YOU'RE DOING JUNE ENTRIES?

 

FUUUUUUUUCK NOW I HAVE TO PUT MINE UP TOO

Lol shit no worries, I needed to take a break too. I can finish tomorrow 

[Eric the Fall Guy]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

Lol shit no worries, I needed to take a break too. I can finish tomorrow 

Love you baby