Christmas-New Year Weekdays Thread || Avatar $20.1M THU - Top 10 DOM or Bust!

[M37]

59 minutes ago, Alexdube said:

Obviously you have no interest in James Cameron's work, so have you no clue what makes his movies rewatchable

I mean, I’ve probably watched T2 and The Abyss (or at least parts them) like 10 times each, but sure 

[IronJimbo]

reminder to the cinemascore fanatics that the original Avatar got an A, not an A+

1 minute ago, M37 said:

I mean, I’ve probably watched T2 and The Abyss (or at least parts them) like 10 times each, but sure 

so you know Jim films are extremely rewatchable, what exactly is it that makes you think A2 won't be the same?

Outside of that would put your club in danger

[Reed121]

12 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

TBF @Reed121 said:

The Audience scores clearly indicate Avatar won’t have the legs of TGM or NWH.

I was thinking legs after the 3rd weekend.

[Cooper Legion]

2 minutes ago, LinksterAC said:

Well, I wonder if the size of the opening weekend isn't a better predictor of legs than the Cinemascore is?

It’s not. Movies can open all over the size spectrum and have awful to bad to average to good to great legs. Extremely noisy relationship.
 

Several of the recent OW record breakers had low legs (endgame, DH2, SM3) one had medium legs (IW) and many had great legs (TFA, JW, TA, TDK, DMC, SM1, HP1). Even if you want a harsher cut on “recent” it’s like even at worst.

[Gkalaitza]

Also the assertion was about repeat viewings initialy. Avatar 2 can have much better repeat vieweing stats than some other blockbusters but that only translating to somewhat better legs and not even coming close to their gross. Avatar 2 being more rewatched in the theaters than NWH and most blockbusters (and i really believe thats the case) just means it will do 570m instead of the 530m that it would have done if its repeat viewing strength was normal . It doesnt mean that it will have x5 legs nor that it will be a top 10 highest grosser ever DOM. It just means that from the people that showed up ,more decided to rewatch it again on theaters

Edited December 28, 2022 by Gkalaitza

[Flopped]

He should have kept A2 at 2hr40mins like the first one. The 3hr+ thing is hurting it. "Too long" is the only real complaint I'm hearing from people (not critics). 

[LinksterAC]

2 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

It’s not. Movies can open all over the size spectrum and have awful to bad to average to good to great legs. Extremely noisy relationship.
 

Several of the recent OW record breakers had low legs (endgame, DH2, SM3) one had medium legs (IW) and many had great legs (TFA, JW, TA, TDK, DMC, SM1, HP1). Even if you want a harsher cut on “recent” it’s like even at worst.

Are you absolutely sure that's not true of Cinemascore too? Have we done the stats?

 

This points to what I asked about earlier. Has anyone done the math to establish a statistical relationship between Cinemascore & legs?

[wildphantom]

Best Dad in all of fiction? No contest 

 

 

 

[kayumanggi]

ERC is terrible at rounding numbers sometimes. This can be $24.5 M. We'll see.

Edited December 28, 2022 by kayumanggi

[Alex SciChannel]

2 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

ERC is terrible at rounding numbers sometimes. This can be $24.5 M. We'll see.

He's kind of Cringe. But I follow him for the numbers.

[Alex SciChannel]

 

Cringe man strikes again with an imprecise number

[Cooper Legion]

7 minutes ago, LinksterAC said:

Are you absolutely sure that's not true of Cinemascore too?

Yes

7 minutes ago, LinksterAC said:

Have we done the stats?

Yes

8 minutes ago, LinksterAC said:

This points to what I asked about earlier. Has anyone done the math to establish a statistical relationship between Cinemascore & legs?

Yes

 

It’s still pretty noisy (especially without accounting for genre) but there’s at least a clear weak relationship

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

3 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

He's kind of Cringe. But I follow him for the numbers.

 

He isn't nice. Can be very biased a lot of times, but yeah, I just follow him for the numbers.

[Deep Wang]

33 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

Still fair to note the legs weren’t that good. It was a bit of a weird run as @M37 has outlined recently.

 

Sure, not to mention the fact that the majority(5/8) of $200m+ openers actually have a 3x and only 2 of those came in December means there is something else going on lol. 

 

I still think it's impressive 🤷‍♂️

[wildphantom]

Word of mouth and ‘wait, this isn’t going to be on Disney Plus?’ realisation is starting to kick in for Puss. 

[LinksterAC]

5 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

Yes

Yes

Yes

 

It’s still pretty noisy (especially without accounting for genre) but there’s at least a clear weak relationship

Can you please provide references on the statistics? Are they somewhere on this board?

[stripe]

Around me there are many people that have shown interest to see Avatar 2 but they have been hesitant to go these days because 3 hours is a lot of time. Anyways, most of them will see the film in the near future. They just don't rush to theater. I am quite confident the legs will be ok in the coming weeks thanks to these kind of audience.

[Alex SciChannel]

Amazing how Puss in Boots managed to match strange world's domestic total in 1 week.

[Cooper Legion]

Just now, LinksterAC said:

Can you please provide references on the statistics? Are they somewhere on this board?

If I had them on hand I would have but I’ll need to do a little digging (I’ve definitely seen at least one on Reddit, I think multiple, and maybe one over here and one on some other site?) and I’m about to go to sleep. I can find some for you in 10 hrs or so if nobody else has provided the goods by then.