Christmas-New Year Weekdays Thread || Avatar $20.1M THU - Top 10 DOM or Bust!

[Alexdube]

5 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:

It's not misunderstood. I'm not going to drop stuff that journalist say who does reporting for a living. There is no exact number on the budget. Please give me the source where Cameron clarified it. Saying that it's breaking even the new few days is clearly delusional and incorrect.

 

Latest from Variety: "“Avatar 2” looks to stay strong into the new year, which is necessary to justify its massive price tag. Cameron estimated the $350 million-budgeted movie (not including at least $100 million in marketing fees) needs to generate roughly $2 billion to break even, though analysts believe the threshold to profitability is probably closer to $1.5 billion."

 

I agree, the real break-even point is probably closer to 1.5 billion then to 2 billion. It's tough to know how much marketing they spent. It will break even either way, will hit 2 billion.

I literally just gave it to you

[eridani]

So Cameron corrected himself there and with 10th highest grossing movie to break even we get 1.5 billion required gross to break even. 

That still doesn't necessarily tell us everything because A LOT of the times hollywood media and perhaps even professionals will refer to breakeven point based JUST on theatrical grosses. Many films have been proclaimed as financial flops even before they've started their home entertainment /streaming/ tv earnings. 

 

It's possible, though I don't know how likely, that Cameron too is doing the same, when talking about breakeven. That he might be refering just to theatrical revenues to break even. If true, and if the breakeven point is 1.5 billion, then that might mean total costs of the movie might be around 900 million.  

A personal estimate follows of 900 million cost breakdown using 460 million rumored base budget.

460 m base production budget

40 m studio overhead

160 m worldwide prints and ads

90 m video/HE market costs

40 m participations

40 m residuals

70 m interest

 

[lab276]

We'll know it's broken even when they green light Avatar 5.

[Mr Roark]

Use your head. The movie reportedly cost $350/450M to make. Add marketing costs and distribution. It will need something in the $1.2/1.5B to break even theatrically. It’s not that complicated.

[stripe]

1 hour ago, CJohn said:

Are 2B back on the menu?

 

Wasn't 2B always on the menu?

[reddevil19]

Can we all agree Avatar 2 is Schrodinger's movie? A flop and yet a success? 

[JustLurking]

It took a surprising amount of time for people to start flat out trolling ngl

[Shanks]

Why people argue there at all? If you are JC's fan just say "YES, It's $2B. His 13 Years DESERVE those extra Billion and be done with it!" It is also guaranteed to reach and surpass those numbers anyway. 

[The Dark Alfred]

15 minutes ago, Alexdube said:

I literally just gave it to you

 

What he said that the likehood is around 1.5 billion. Which what I posted exactly in the recent Variety report, which is accurate. Which makes the claims that it's breaking even in a day or two laughable. At leasts we are clear on that.

 

It's not the mainstream media misreporting it. James Cameron's ego saying dumb things. That's what happened. You reap what you sow.

 

Also there's no clear figures yet as marketing costs are fluid, it's still happening.

 

It's reaching its budget anyway. It's reaching its FLOOR predictions.

Edited December 29, 2022 by The Dark Alfred

[Mr Roark]

It is called “trolling”.

[Jonan23]

14 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Fine I'll do it.

 

The original article that started the $2b misinformation.

https://variety.com/2022/film/news/avatar-2-budget-expensive-2-billion-turn-profit-1235438907/

 

 

The above is what Jim said, not to them but to GQ, that variety quoted in their article and they extrapolated to mean the break-even is 2 billion dollars.

 

So first Jim never gave a concrete number, that's the first point.

Second point, Jim is talking about a business case he had. A business case for Avatar 2 to get greenlit. That's over 10 years ago. The highest grossing films back then looked a little different.

Variety dropped the ball on this one, probably because they weren't the ones interviewing Jim so they minderstud. Terrible reporting honestly.

 

Jim never gave a concrete number but I mean it makes sense that a majority would assume he was talking about the third highest grossing film today and not ten years ago. Also I won't blame a forum member for believing something that was reported in all the major trades. I won't hold Cameron blameless as well, He knows how the media is and how it would interpret his words. 

Anyway ten years ago Avengers was the third highest grossing film at 1.5 Billion so that number matches with what others here have computed. 

[Gkalaitza]

21 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

They should keep him under control for the Avatar 3 promo tour. Some of the stuff he was spouting was straight up annoying. He was giving sound bites for attention. And some of it has backfired on him/the film and made him look pretty cringe. 

anyone thinking the film will lose even 10 million worldwide due to some clickbait Cameron quote posts trending on twitter might be a bit too terminaly online

[stephanos13]

28 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:

It's not misunderstood. I'm not going to drop stuff that journalist say who does reporting for a living. There is no exact number on the budget. Please give me the source where Cameron clarified it. Saying that it's breaking even the new few days is clearly delusional and incorrect.

 

Latest from Variety: "“Avatar 2” looks to stay strong into the new year, which is necessary to justify its massive price tag. Cameron estimated the $350 million-budgeted movie (not including at least $100 million in marketing fees) needs to generate roughly $2 billion to break even, though analysts believe the threshold to profitability is probably closer to $1.5 billion."

 

I agree, the real break-even point is probably closer to 1.5 billion then to 2 billion. It's tough to know how much marketing they spent. It will break even either way, will hit 2 billion.

 

Dude the movie had production budget $465M. How much do you think they spent on marketing? 1 Billion?

 

I mean come on...

[Factcheck]

29 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I am not sure why James Cameron decided to walk around in interviews saying the movie needed 2B to break even. Its dumb. If it does like 1.9B it will be seen as a flop.

because it actually needs 2B to break even through only theatrical gross. Ancillary revenues are going to be very low for this because of D+. DVD and Blu-ray sales are down by 80% for Disney movies, and I believe the same is the case with PVOD revenue.

 

[stephanos13]

1 minute ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

"KING" "CAMERON" HIMSELF said 2 billion. WHY MUST WE LIES it is time for CAmeron to come to the light for his words. 

 

You know trolling is not allowed right?

[Mr Roark]

Stop this nonsense…

[Jonan23]

8 minutes ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

CAmeron said 2 BILLION DOLLARS IT is clear this movie is A BOMB! 

uhhhhmmm but it will make 2 Billion

[JustLurking]

How are we 2 weeks into the film's release and still using a misleading, out-of-context quote that has been debunked a trillion times - even directly, word-for-word by Cameron himself! - to argue about whether the film will break-even?

 

The film's break-even point is not 2 billion, it was never said to be 2 billion, move on. This shit is exhausting.

[stuart360]

Holy shit at the trolling the last 4 or 5 pages, what the hell is wrong with some of you?.

 

Cameron already clarified that he was talking about in 2011 when the sequel were greenlit and he was given 1bil for 3 sequels. Obviosuly that 1bil wasnt spent only on A2 as he's shot A2, A3, parts of A4, and even the finale to A5. Needing to reach a certain level in 2011 is quite a bit different than in 2022.

It was pretty sloppy reporting by variety, but it sure got them the clicks they wanted lol.

 

And The Dark Alfred laid some pretty pathetic bait down, and a lot of you took that bait.

Edited December 29, 2022 by stuart360

[stephanos13]

1 minute ago, JustLurking said:

How are we 2 weeks into the film's release and still using a misleading, out-of-context quote that has been debunked a trillion times - even directly, word-for-word by Cameron himself! - to argue about whether the film will break-even?

 

The film's break-even point is not 2 billion, it was never said to be 2 billion, move on. This shit is exhausting.

 

I thought this forum didn't have these kind of people posting in here, apparently not!  #Sad