New Years Weekend Thread || Dec. 30-Jan. 1 || ATWOW $67.4M 3rd WE - $88.8M 4-Day WE — Orange Panther $22.6M 4-Day!

[Blankments]

[MovieMan89]

24 minutes ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

 

Difficult to tell with the comp sets. They're still returning a decent range depending on which ratio you use. With that being said, if it matches yesterdays ratio going forward then we'd be looking at something around.....

 

Could NYE estimate move up, or does 18 seem pretty set? 

[AJG]

What are the chances of Disney keeping the Number 1 slot all the way until three weeks through Ant-Man?

[dignam]

6 minutes ago, Blankments said:

 

[Ronin46]

I think Knock at the Cabin will open above it. Meagan wont now. So 4 more weekends

[Alex SciChannel]

Chances of Puss in Boots staying in second place over M3GAN this coming weekend?

Edited January 1, 2023 by Alex SciChannel

[MovieMan89]

Before anyone jumps down my throat, this is NOT a prediction at all from me, but I thought it would be fun to point out that the exact same post-third weekend share of the total gross as A1 based off the 3rd weekend estimate would put A2 right around…. $935-940 (aka The Force Abdicates the throne) 

Edited January 1, 2023 by MovieMan89

[Ronin46]

2 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Chances of Puss in Boots staying in second place over M3GAN this coming weekend?

 

I think M3GAN is going to do around 20M , after looking like it would be much bigger (30+). Not sure PIB can get to 20. So I think its unlikely. 

[AJG]

12 minutes ago, Blankments said:

Coping is for the weak. I’ve decided to hate on Avatar 3 EVEN HARDER!!!

[Eric Burnett]

14 minutes ago, Blankments said:

lol did you make this? This is golden.

[Alex SciChannel]

Just now, Ronin46 said:

 

I think M3GAN is going to do around 20M , after looking like it would be much bigger (30+). Not sure PIB can get to 20. So I think its unlikely. 

I am mostly betting on M3GAN underperforming domestically in this scenario based on the poor wom I've heard from early screenings.

[efialtes76]

7 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Chances of Puss in Boots staying in second place over M3GAN this coming weekend?

0.

[Brainbug]

10 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Chances of Puss in Boots staying in second place over M3GAN this coming weekend?

 

1%.

 

Not 100% impossible, but incredibly unlikely. I dont see Megan going under a 20M OW and i dont see Puss reaching that number.

[Brainbug]

20 minutes ago, Blankments said:

 

Advanced acceptance:

 

Avatar 2 proves yet again that people flock to the theaters for the right movies/experience. The lesson for Hollywood is: Make appealing products and people will still come in high numbers.

[Ronin46]

5 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

I am mostly betting on M3GAN underperforming domestically in this scenario based on the poor wom I've heard from early screenings.

 

I think M3Gan will crash and burn quickly but still have a decent opening. Just wont have the legs of Smile and other horror movies like the Black Phone. 20/45 something like that. WOM I think will be bad.

[XXR vs XXR]

22 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Could NYE estimate move up, or does 18 seem pretty set? 

 

Perhaps +/- $200-250K but not a million.

 

17 minutes ago, AJG said:

What are the chances of Disney keeping the Number 1 slot all the way until three weeks through Ant-Man?

 

Probably keeps it for 3 more weekends after this one. 

 

13 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Chances of Puss in Boots staying in second place over M3GAN this coming weekend?

 

Essentially zero. Probably looking at a 35-45% drop next weekend. I think M3GAN is over-predicted but it should still do at least 18M.

[Eric Burnett]

38 minutes ago, AJG said:

What are the chances of Disney keeping the Number 1 slot all the way until three weeks through Ant-Man?

Non-existent. Even if M3GAN doesn't do it, Knock at the Cabin has a good shot and Magic Mike is damn near certain.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

5 hours ago, filmlover said:

They were likely looking to emulate Green Book with the Thanksgiving launch + Universal already had Puss in Boots on Christmas weekend. That said, I'm sure it (or something else) would've been pushed to Christmas if they had a hint that Whitney and Babylon would crash and burn as much as they ended up doing.

Of course, Puss in Boots 2 is the far safer holiday bet for Universal...maybe if The Fabelmans was with Focus? It's wild that She Said got released in so many more theaters than Spielberg's latest.

 

[Cheddar Please]

48 minutes ago, Sheldon Cr said:

Wow my prediction was 63m. I'm hoping it makes more in actuals too. Very happy regardless!.

 

Hopefully 65-68 in actuals brother dragoncaine😄🦝👍. Wow what a hold!!

Avatar coming in above Sheldon's estimates???

[Cheddar Please]

25 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Advanced acceptance:

 

Avatar 2 proves yet again that people flock to the theaters for the right movies/experience. The lesson for Hollywood is: Make appealing products and people will still come in high numbers.

I thought we learned this with Top Gun. Literally nothing coming out this year other than A2 looked like it would be top 10 material and here we are.
 

Spoiler

Force Awakens is going down next year fr