New Years Weekend Thread || Dec. 30-Jan. 1 || ATWOW $67.4M 3rd WE - $88.8M 4-Day WE — Orange Panther $22.6M 4-Day!

[Torontofan]

Expect a big tuesday due to canada 

 

Shows full here all day due to discount tuesday. 

[XXR vs XXR]

7 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

Industry estimates believe that Avatar 2‘s fourth weekend will be between $25M-$30M beating new wide release, Universal/Blumhouse’s PG-13 genre title M3GAN which is looking at $17M, despite tracking have that film higher in the lower $20Ms. Showtimes start Thursday at 5PM. Young females under 25 are the prime demo.

 

 

 

hummmmmmm

why do industry estimates see the same drop as rogue as the best case scenario?

because they’re not actually experts.

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

A1’s first run admissions would be over $950M with A2’s ticket prices. 

But you have to wonder if the 3D share is very notable at all with A2? I’m one of the only people I know for example who wanted to see it in the “dreaded” 3D. Whereas 3D was the cool new thing w the first film and I believe lots of people at the time were guesstimating the movie made more like $600m at the time if you took out all of the 3D inflation. I can’t imagine 3D would account for more than $50m absolute max of inflation w A2s total. 

[Torontofan]

I think it will do 40 million  this weekend and then 25-30 million weekend 5 and same over the 4 day mlk weekend

 

Add in weekdays and it likely be over 600 million by MLK weekend. 

[marveldcfox]

14 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Japan finally makes its debut.

[Gkalaitza]

8 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

Around india

Ah outperforming the US relatively then?

[cory]

17 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I wouldn’t be surprised if that number went up for total DOM too. Big part of A1s WOM was “you gotta check out this new kind of 3D.”  Again, A2 doesn’t have that sort of thing going for it. 

Which really makes me think it will be approaching A1s DOM admissions if it does creep near  that $750 first run gross of A1. 

I think the increase in PLF offsets the decrease in normal 3D so it probably needs more than that to match. 

[MovieMan89]

We know for example that 3D showings were so popular with A1 DOM that the entire market shifted immediately after the movie’s run to try to accommodate every blockbuster having that kind of 3D demand. For awhile in 2010 and 2011, it was literally hard to find 2D showings of some big movies. That’s how huge A1s 3D impact was at the time, before GA made it clear that was the exception not the rule and they were essentially taking 3D for a “test drive” w A1, with most not actually buying it. 

Edited January 3, 2023 by MovieMan89

[kayumanggi]

9 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

This seems like kind of a low sum from top markets for a movie nearly at $1b OS…. 

 

The developing markets are helping a lot.

 

[cory]

5 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

But you have to wonder if the 3D share is very notable at all with A2? I’m one of the only people I know for example who wanted to see it in the “dreaded” 3D. Whereas 3D was the cool new thing w the first film and I believe lots of people at the time were guesstimating the movie made more like $600m at the time if you took out all of the 3D inflation. I can’t imagine 3D would account for more than $50m absolute max of inflation w A2s total. 

That sounds right. Slightly above TDK with everything broken out by format IIRC. But that was back when that data was easier to find and only 3 real formats to track. 

[shruth]

bro luis on twitter updated his range for avatar all the way to 670-870 lmfaoo he was tired of being clowned on 😂

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, cory said:

I think the increase in PLF offsets the decrease in normal 3D so it probably needs more than that to match. 

Eh, TDK was doing huge things from PLF back in 2008 already, so idk if I buy there’s that big of a difference between A1 PLF and A2 PLF. 2D PLF vs 3D PLF is another story. 

[XXR vs XXR]

6 minutes ago, Gkalaitza said:

Ah outperforming the US relatively then?

By a lot. If the US was matching Canada, we’d be looking at a domestic total in the Endgame region.

[M37]

23 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

Industry estimates believe that Avatar 2‘s fourth weekend will be between $25M-$30M beating new wide release, Universal/Blumhouse’s PG-13 genre title M3GAN which is looking at $17M, despite tracking have that film higher in the lower $20Ms. Showtimes start Thursday at 5PM. Young females under 25 are the prime demo.

 

 

 

hummmmmmm

why do industry estimates see the same drop as rogue as the best case scenario?

I could see $30-$35 as a pessimistic “holiday bubble is gonna pop” range, but 25-30? Avatwo made almost that lower figure just on Friday 

[MovieMan89]

Yeah, it’s not dropping to $25m next weekend lol. -50% if holiday inflation was doing most of the work, but that’s gotta be about a worst case scenario. Again, you can’t have weekend like it just had without strong WOM holidays and storms or not. 

[kayumanggi]

That $21.1M Monday is the biggest January Monday ever.

[interiorgatordecorator]

IronJimbo is Luiz?

[Alex SciChannel]

Second belonged to Universal/DreamWorks Animation’s Puss in Boots: The Last Wish with a second 3-day and 4-day respectively of $16.8M, +35%, and $22.6M for a running 13-day total of $67M.

 

Hopefully these numbers are nice and round and not rounded up from actuals where it really is 16.799M, 66.999M, or 22.599M

[CJohn]

I think a 35M+ Avatar weekend, a 20M+ M3gan weekend and 10M+ for Puss would give us good headlines.

[grey ghost]

Ya'll worried about Maverick vs A2 domestic but this the real battle of the century.