New Years Weekend Thread || Dec. 30-Jan. 1 || ATWOW $67.4M 3rd WE - $88.8M 4-Day WE — Orange Panther $22.6M 4-Day!

[Sheldon Cr]

16 minutes ago, RascarCapat said:

 

Well at least now it's relevant because A2 is finally out. After a few years away I'm glad to see brother K hasn't changed 😉

I've changed quite a bit actually. Kal is married with kids and a dedicated man of God nowadays, but I see alot of naysayers and  fanboys haven't changed from the banned list and name calling when they're films get pushed to the wayside from the bom days.l🦝👍

 

Still it's great to have Avatar box office talks and some fun with the numbers again. Heh

 

 

Edited January 3, 2023 by Sheldon Cr
Editing post

[M37]

Posting this for two reasons:

 

Showing how the RO comp just completely fell apart and no longer became predictive after Christmas, though perhaps showing some signs at stabilizing at around +35% as we move past the holiday week

 

But also because there is a (surprising) comp from 2016 that has fit/tracked much better over that period: Passengers (albeit at only ~27% of Avatwo's value)

 

 

Don't know what - if anything - it means (though I do have a theory, but going to wait to see how the rest of this week/weekend plays out first).

 

Fwiw, if this trend were to continue, we'd be looking at something like: $11/$7.5/$6.8 / $11.5/$16.5/$10 = $38M (-43%) through Sunday 1/08

[Sheldon Cr]

10 minutes ago, M37 said:

Posting this for two reasons:

 

Showing how the RO comp just completely fell apart and no longer became predictive after Christmas, though perhaps showing some signs at stabilizing at around +35% as we move past the holiday week

 

But also because there is a (surprising) comp from 2016 that has fit/tracked much better over that period: Passengers (albeit at only ~27% of Avatwo's value)

 

 

Don't know what - if anything - it means (though I do have a theory, but going to wait to see how the rest of this week/weekend plays out first).

 

Fwiw, if this trend were to continue, we'd be looking at something like: $11/$7.5/$6.8 / $11.5/$16.5/$10 = $38M (-43%) through Sunday 1/08

I'm think it will be at least 13-16m higher. I think your underestimating repeat business and families that waited until after holidays to checkout m37.

This week is going to be very interesting with alot of meltdowns I suspect( well the folks still wanting the film to some how miss 600m domestic  and under NWH WW anyway)

Friday I think will suprise with 20-25m 🦝👍.

 

Is 38m for weekend 4 your highend brother  m37?

 

Edited January 3, 2023 by Sheldon Cr
Editing post

[Dale Cooper]

10 minutes ago, M37 said:

Posting this for two reasons:

 

Showing how the RO comp just completely fell apart and no longer became predictive after Christmas, though perhaps showing some signs at stabilizing at around +35% as we move past the holiday week

 

But also because there is a (surprising) comp from 2016 that has fit/tracked much better over that period: Passengers (albeit at only ~27% of Avatwo's value)

 

 

Don't know what - if anything - it means (though I do have a theory, but going to wait to see how the rest of this week/weekend plays out first).

 

Fwiw, if this trend were to continue, we'd be looking at something like: $11/$7.5/$6.8 / $11.5/$16.5/$10 = $38M (-43%) through Sunday 1/08

I think this is a plausible scenario. I'd probably have weekdays a few million lower and weekend ~40m but 38m is very reasonable I think.

[M37]

8 minutes ago, Sheldon Cr said:

I'm think it will be at least 13-16m higher. I think your underestimating repeat business and families that waited until after holidays to checkout m37.

This week is going to be very interesting with alot of meltdowns I suspect( well the folks still wanting the film to some how miss 600m domestic  and under NWH WW anyway)

Friday I think will suprise with 20-25m 🦝👍

I’ll just say this: if that - or anything close to it - happens, then we can look back over the previous week as the start of what will likely be a remarkable run into the new year 

 

I’m just not yet convinced that is what is actually happening. But this weekend should be illuminating, one way or another …

[Sheldon Cr]

Just now, Dale Cooper said:

I think this is a plausible scenario. I'd probably have weekdays a few million lower and weekend ~40m but 38m is very reasonable I think.

Not a bad number but I think repeat and new viewers will push A2's bounty way closer to the original"s if not over it.

Let's see what happens folks,  but those 30-37m 4th weekends predicts seem a bit low for the holds I'm seeing so far. 

My sister for instance bought tickets for Dbox this weekend and next and so did her gfs. I think mom's are digging the family theme  and the whole breakthrough event movie thing bigtime.

 

[Sheldon Cr]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

I’ll just say this: if that - or anything close to it - happens, then we can look back over the previous week as the start of what will likely be a remarkable run into the new year 

 

I’m just not yet convinced that is what is actually happening. But this weekend should be illuminating, one way or another …

Agreed. Hah hah hopefully this weekend  has the avatar fans smiling and not the naysayers though brother m37.  Lol this run so far is fantastic.

[interiorgatordecorator]

27 minutes ago, M37 said:

But also because there is a (surprising) comp from 2016 that has fit/tracked much better over that period: Passengers 

 

 

 

[stripe]

Drops for Passengers the first two weeks of January were 45.4% and 39.4% (MLK weekend). After that, it crumbled (-58% and -59.4%).

It can work the comparission with Avatwo for the first days of January, but not after January 9th.

[WrathOfHan]

Babylon is Once Upon a Time in Hollywood's younger, drug addict sibling, so needless to say it's great  

[cory]

Have a weird feeling that it's just going to copy TFA's raw numbers from here on out and end up 10th all time, maybe slightly worse drops on weekdays and slightly stronger holds on weekends due to the run time but it will even out. If it comes in at or above TGM's 4th weekend then it will be a different story. 

[Alex SciChannel]

Not enough Puss in Boots on here. That's why we didn't get to 100 pages. 🤨 🗡🐈👢

 

 

Edited January 3, 2023 by Alex SciChannel

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[shruth]

10 minutes ago, cory said:

Have a weird feeling that it's just going to copy TFA's raw numbers from here on out and end up 10th all time, maybe slightly worse drops on weekdays and slightly stronger holds on weekends due to the run time but it will even out. If it comes in at or above TGM's 4th weekend then it will be a different story. 

tfa burnt a lot of demand through the holidays already. $770m through 17 days. IDT avatar has and will continue to do a lot through WOM and people waiting for premium formats. 

[Grebacio]

 

 

 

[Alex SciChannel]

3 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

 

This movie really got done dirty. I heard it was good. You know I might just support it this weekend.

[kayumanggi]

 

[Borobudur]

4 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

This movie really got done dirty. I heard it was good. You know I might just support it this weekend.

Ya, it was so good until 3 different posters posted this movie Monday's gross. 

[M37]

29 minutes ago, stripe said:

Drops for Passengers the first two weeks of January were 45.4% and 39.4% (MLK weekend). After that, it crumbled (-58% and -59.4%).

It can work the comparission with Avatwo for the first days of January, but not after January 9th.

Agree it’s a short term rather than long term comp given lower value and no legs, but did you mean 19th? 

[MovieMan89]

I would be curious to know total A2 3D share DOM? I believe A1s was absurdly high and would have gone even higher if the amount of screens were around at the time to meet the demand. Everyone wanted to see what this “new” non red/green cheesy “3D” was all about with A1. These days, no one is curious what it’s all about, and beyond that there are a huge chunk of the people who clamored to see A1 in 3D that know very well now that they hate it and would never see a movie in 3D.
 

All this to say, I’m curious is coming close to A1s gross DOM would actually be coming close to its admissions as well, in spite of inflation, bc of the huge 3D inflation from the first?