New Years Weekend Thread || Dec. 30-Jan. 1 || ATWOW $67.4M 3rd WE - $88.8M 4-Day WE — Orange Panther $22.6M 4-Day!

[Krissykins]

“I’ll guess $24.8m Friday. A +24% jump”

I wasn’t too far off  

[stuart360]

A2 going to extend its lead over the orig film to around  70+mil after this weekend. And if this weekend matches the 68mil that the first film did on this weekend, well the sky is the limit

[XXR & Friends]

 

Where will ATWOW end up?

 

Top 5 DOM 3rd Weekends 

TFA = $90,241,673

Avatar = $68,490,688

Black Panther = $66,306,935

Endgame = $63,299,904

Infinity War = $62,078,047 

 

[stuart360]

1 minute ago, XXR M37's Club Is Dead said:

 

Where will ATWOW end up?

 

Top 5 DOM 3rd Weekends 

TFA = $90,241,673

Avatar = $68,490,688

Black Panther = $66,306,935

Endgame = $63,299,904

Infinity War = $62,078,047 

 

Around Black Panther imo, although could see it matching the first film.

[tomknff]

12 minutes ago, stephanos13 said:

The December calendar for Avatar 3.

 

 

 

Damn. That looks sweet.

[IronJimbo]

can someone explain to me very slowly why Avatar 2 can't make post holiday $397m that Avatar made? I'm finding it hard to understand why it's impossible

[Elessar]

5 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

can someone explain to me very slowly why Avatar 2 can't make post holiday $397m that Avatar made? I'm finding it hard to understand why it's impossible

 

Because it's not having the legs that Avatar had?

 

Avatar 1 would have probably dropped like 35% on its 2nd weekend and increased like 50% on its 3rd weekend with the same calendar setup (and storm).

Edited December 31, 2022 by Elessar

[tomknff]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

can someone explain to me very slowly why Avatar 2 can't make post holiday $397m that Avatar made? I'm finding it hard to understand why it's impossible

 

OG Avatar brought in people who were usually non-movie goers in droves because of the 3D novelty factor. A2 won't be able to do the same.

[stuart360]

1 minute ago, Elessar said:

 

Because it's not having the legs that Avatar had?

 

 

After the OW A2 had a 57mil lead over the first film.

After the 3rd weekend, A2's lead will be around 70mil.

[Brainbug]

Just now, IronJimbo said:

can someone explain to me very slowly why Avatar 2 can't make post holiday $397m that Avatar made? I'm finding it hard to understand why it's impossible

 

Its not impossible. It would be hyperbole to say that since anything really CAN happen with box office.

 

But is it likely? I dont think so since Avatar 2's great holds can be attributed ofc to the holiday calendar and teh aftereffects of the storm (though that factor may be little). The real question now is: Is WOM good enough that it has similarly amazing legs in January? One major factor going for it is the non-existent competition besides the cute little doll. But no competition doesnt help you that much when WOM is not strong enough.

 

But it is undeniable that Avatar 1 had such insane holds post-New Year because it truly was a must-see event which offered something new on the table. Avatar 2 doesnt have this same factor, it relies much more on the power of WOM than Avatar 1 in my opinion. And i dont think that it is good enough for holds similar to the first movie.

 

But hey, i might be wrong.

 

[IronJimbo]

2 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

Because it's not having the legs that Avatar had?

 

Avatar 1 would have probably dropped like 35% on its 2nd weekend and increased like 50% on its 3rd weekend with the same calendar setup.

So when is it Avatar 1 breaks ahead in dailies?

This Tuesday?
Next Saturday?

or maybe never!

[XXR & Friends]

5 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

can someone explain to me very slowly why Avatar 2 can't make post holiday $397m that Avatar made? I'm finding it hard to understand why it's impossible

 

Theoretically it's not impossible. It's just incredibly unlikely. Should be easy to determine after next weekend. 3rd WE will be very close to A1's so we have a great jump-off point. Avatar made just over $70M from it's 3rd Tuesday through 4th Sunday. Lets see what A2 does. 

[Torontofan]

Be at 440 to 450 domestic by monday

 

It be running at a higher rate NWH so I think 200 million more after holidays will happen.

[Elessar]

2 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

After the OW A2 had a 57mil lead over the first film.

After the 3rd weekend, A2's lead will be around 70mil.

 

It's still the aftermath of the much bigger opening weekend.

[stephanos13]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

So when is it Avatar 1 breaks ahead in dailies?

This Tuesday?
Next Saturday?

or maybe never!

 

We'll have to wait to find out.

 

 

[IronJimbo]

Just now, XXR M37's Club Is Dead said:

 

Theoretically it's not impossible. It's just incredibly unlikely. Should be easy to determine after next weekend. 3rd WE will be very close to A1's so we have a great jump-off point. Avatar made just over $70M from it's 3rd Tuesday through 4th Sunday. Lets see what A2 does. 

 

Avatar 2 will be ahead in dailies if weekend numbers hold. A2's Sunday should be around $5m higher than Avatar ($22m vs 17m)

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Deadline updated their Avatar 2 projections to $67.8M for the 3-day weekend and $87M-$92M for the 4-day frame.

https://deadline.com/2022/12/avatar-the-way-of-water-box-office-new-years-2023-1235208802/

[stuart360]

2 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

It's still the aftermath of the much bigger opening weekend.

I mean A2's legs may not hold as strong as the first film from here onwards, but it will still have a 70mil lead to help navigate thiose possible worse legs.

 

It still IMO means 700mil is in play.

[XXR & Friends]

3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

Avatar 2 will be ahead in dailies if weekend numbers hold. A2's Sunday should be around $5m higher than Avatar ($22m vs 17m)

 

Sure but A2 will be $6M behind A1 3rd Sat. Either way neither mean much for post holiday legs yet, hence the wait-and-see. 

[Elessar]

3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

So when is it Avatar 1 breaks ahead in dailies?

This Tuesday?
Next Saturday?

or maybe never!

 

It already did on Friday.

 

3rd weekend will probably go to Avatar 1 and the difference will only grow in the coming weeks.