New Years Weekend Thread || Dec. 30-Jan. 1 || ATWOW $67.4M 3rd WE - $88.8M 4-Day WE — Orange Panther $22.6M 4-Day!

[stuart360]

11 minutes ago, AJG said:

 

He may have a point.

 

How do we know for certain A2's current box office isn't part of a global, tax-dodging money laundering scheme?

Dude lets not even go there. The haters will latch onto anything they can so lets not give them ideas.🤣

[stuart360]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Don't worry about it, it's difficult to survive through negativity.

It was almost like it was an advanced tactic to overinflate projections of the opening weekend so that when it came in at $135m mentally you already think A2 is in a bad spot.

The most similair movie to A2 box office wise will be the first Avatar, I don't know why that's so hard for people to see.

It's a sequel? Well not really is it. There's a big difference between a sequel to a 13yo movie that has been out of the spotlight intentionally, and the fifth movie from the same franchise in one year and #35 of the total franchise.

It's very possible that the only day that Avatar 1 is above A2 in dailies from now is today and tomorrow because of New Years Eve + New Years Day. A2 can simply from now just make more than A1 every single day until the end of it's run.

People will tell you that's impossible, why? Because they refuse to see
 

Yep me, you, Sheldon, a few others, we all said for a long time that its a legs film, and not amazing first and second weekend film.

 

I cantr believe there are still people on here that think 600mil is in doubt. I mean its going to bearound or over 500mil by the end of next weekend, and next weekend should be in the 40mil range.

 

'Sky people can not see'.

[wildphantom]

Realistically it looks like Incredibles 2, The Last Jedi, The Avengers are in TWOW’s sights to take out now.  Possibly even Jurassic World

[IronJimbo]

Fri - $24,000,000
Sat - $19,400,000
Sun - $22,200,000
Mon - $20,800,000

 

3 day - $65.6m

4 day - $86.4m

 

My estimations.

Alright the first big ??????? will be this tuesday. Can anyone help me work it out.

 

(E) = estimate

Day Of Week |   A:TWOW Gross |  Rogue Gross | Avatar Gross    | TG:M Gross   | NWH Gross
Sun                     $22,200,000(E)   $16,751,857    $17,381,129        $17,537,112    $17,502,959
Mon                   $20,800,000(E)    $15,913,674    $8,094,554          $6,632,341      $7,908,732
Tue                          ???????          $6,268,921      $7,327,233          $7,555,031      $5,918,802

Edited December 31, 2022 by IronJimbo

[AJG]

7 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Dude lets not even go there. The haters will latch onto anything they can so lets not give them ideas.🤣

 

Avatar was directed by James CAMERon.

 

There's a company registered in the Bahamas called CAMERic Limited.

 

 

It's time we put the dots together and start asking QUESTIONS.

[cdsacken]

7 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Yep me, you, Sheldon, a few others, we all said for a long time that its a legs film, and not amazing first and second weekend film.

 

I cantr believe there are still people on here that think 600mil is in doubt. I mean its going to bearound or over 500mil by the end of next weekend, and next weekend should be in the 40mil range.

 

'Sky people can not see'.

next weekend may not be in the 40m range and the week after will drop harder. 600+ seems likely 

[ThomasNicole]

 

 

 

[ThomasNicole]

Astonishing number, 60M is locked. 

 

Some R1 comparisson would put it at 64M. I think it can do slightly better than that, so 65-66M and an surreal increase over an pretty good second weekend. 

 

600-650M finish seems like the realistic range now, Nice.

 

[Mr Roark]

17 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Technically it's box office related. 

Not in this thread.

[charlie Jatinder]

58 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Hopefully estimates today end up as 6.45M or higher

as you wish. 

[Torontofan]

Unless my math is wrong this will be around 1.45 billion by monday

 

It's at 1.24 billion as of Friday lol

Edited December 31, 2022 by Torontofan

[ThomasNicole]

These OS numbers is simply a wonder

 

2B seems locked at this point, and the #4 on the all time chart  

 

 

[adaros]

2 minutes ago, Torontofan said:

Unless my math is wrong this will be around 1.45 billion by monday

[Dale Cooper]

While I agree in general that last year isn't a good barometer for drops next weekend (because of external factors last year), I am actually not sure it is applicable to Avatar. It's very common that movies landing 20-25m or lower during Christmas weekend to increase a bit during NY weekend, however no movie has ever increased from a 63m weekend. It has just never happened. Sure, it would quite possibly have done a bit more last weekend if it wasn't for the storm and it might have ended up being more flat instead if so, but then again, pretty much only one movie has managed to do so as well, and that was with a snow storm weekend. Want to hazard a guess which film that is?

Edited December 31, 2022 by Dale Cooper

[stuart360]

15 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

 

 

 

Got a couple of smilies when i said in the daily numbers thread that the film should hit 1bil International by the end of Monday. And it looks like its going to do just that.

[wildphantom]

How much of its ultimate take is money that could have gone to another blockbuster, and I’m talking on a world level. 

 

I guess studios were too scared they’d get eaten alive, but it does feel like there was room for a big movie to rake in some cash through these prized holiday days. 

 

It makes TGM’s performance domestically even more incredible when you consider all the other summer movies it was going to war with. 
 

[stuart360]

Can you imagine if this matches, or even beats, the first AVATAR's 68mil 3rd weekend. A2 is alrady 50 something mil ahead, and NYE wasnt part of the first films 3rd weekend.

Edited December 31, 2022 by stuart360

[M37]

Once is an accident, twice is a coincidence, but 3 times is a trend. On that note, I do think the RO comp is becoming less useful, but at least through this current week is still probably the best baseline we have

 

That Avatwo broke away from RO is not at all surprising - I think most people expected it would leg out better at some point

 

That it pulled >20% ahead is also not shocking - was always in the realm of possibility given the frontloaded nature of Star Wars compared to Avatar

 

But that it did it so suddenly and sharply - going from Mon even, Tue +7%, Wed +14%, Thu +20% to Fri +32% is a little more difficult to wrap one's head around (but certainly worth celebrating if you're rooting for higher numbers)

 

And before the "but Cameron!" "but legs!" folks come at me, there is a beat, a pattern to how  legs or a second wave develops - including for the first Avatar and TGM - and this is not what it typically looks like. I don't know if its holiday or storm impacted, or maybe something with RO that isn't obvious, but going to need a few more days of data to establish a new baseline on which to project forward

[ThomasNicole]

I can't believe we're heading to 2023 and this argument is still going strong lol 

 

(please don't start the same arguing here, is suppose to be a quick fun tweet to laugh)

 

 

[interiorgatordecorator]

11 minutes ago, M37 said:

And before the "but Cameron!" "but legs!" folks come at me, there is a beat, a pattern to how  legs or a second wave develops - including for the first Avatar and TGM - and this is not what it typically looks like. I don't know if its holiday or storm impacted, or maybe something with RO that isn't obvious, but going to need a few more days of data to establish a new baseline on which to project forward

 

yep

thats why i was getting a bit worried about the dom total last week