M3GAN W33K3ND THR3AD | ACTUALS - DADDY CAM3RON'S MAGNUM OPUS 45.8M | DOCUM3NTARY ABOUT KILL3R DOLL 30.4M | ORANG3 PANTH3R 13.5M

[IronJimbo]

23 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

12

23

17

 

52

revised

 

12.5

23.5

15.5

 

51m

 

SAT+SUN given extra millie for 3hr long film.

Edited January 6, 2023 by IronJimbo

[stuart360]

6 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

Luiz is once again terrible at analysing the box office.

 

A $750m domestic minimum is absurd — it'd require Avatar 2 running at 75-80% of Avatar for the entire rest of its run. $800m essentially requires it running at close to 100% of Avatar from here onwards when it's already likely to fall quite a bit behind Avatar's pace by this weekend alone, let alone in the coming weeks where it gets more and more likely to keep losing more and more pace against Avatar.

A2 is almost certainly going to start having higher drops, and lower gains, compard to the first film for the rest of its run. If it grosses say 40mil this weekend, that will be the first weekend where its grossed clearly lower than the orig flm (2nd and 3rd weekends were similar levels, and thats with A2 having the disadvantage of Christmas eve and New years eev in its weekend numbers)

But at the smae time we have to remember than A2 has a 85mil lead over the first film at the same point, so it can afford to lose SOME pace.

 

700+mil is my personal target and i still feel it can do it.

[Gkalaitza]

28 minutes ago, stephanos13 said:

 

What do you mean wrong thread? Is anything out of context of what this thread is supposed to be?

 

Also I said to explain as well your answer.

oh sorry , thought this was a weekend thread just for Megan. Im dumb

[IronJimbo]

TGM weekend should have been around 38-41m if not for fathers day sunday, instead it grosse 44m.

 

 

[stephanos13]

1 minute ago, Gkalaitza said:

oh sorry , thought this was a weekend thread just for Megan. Im dumb

 

it's alright dude. We move, just a misunderstanding. 😉

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[M37]

51 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

M3GAN:

10.75 (2.75 + 8

9.5 (-12%)

6.2 (-35%) // 26.5M

Avatwo:

10.9 (+63%)

17.5 (+60%)

11.7 (-33%) // 40.1M 

 

 

Think your Sundays - esp for Megan - might be a bit high (see 1/9/22), but otherwise basically on same page

[Xavier]

6,8m is very good, but is the stupid doll movie cutting into God Cameron's legs? I will need it to stop doing that.

[JustLurking]

6.8 landed right in my range, now I'm happy with it 👀

[Elessar]

37 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

12

23

17

 

52

 

FRI 10.7m

SAT 17.3m

SUN 12.0m

-------------

WE 40m

 

 

[Tokugennumataka]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

Think your Sundays - esp for Megan - might be a bit high (see 1/9/22), but otherwise basically on same page

The reasoning was that M3GAN being PG-13 might see better drop than other R rated horror flicks. Also OWs should see smaller Sat bumps and slightly lower Sun drops.

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, Elessar said:

 

FRI 10.7m

SAT 17.3m

SUN 12.0m

-------------

WE 40m

 

 

your sat & sun should be 10-15% higher off that fri

[upriser7]

considering the final actuals update have been going up by 0.1-0.2M, actuals will be around $6.9-7M for yesterday

[Elessar]

15 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

A2 is almost certainly going to start having higher drops, and lower gains, compard to the first film for the rest of its run. If it grosses say 40mil this weekend, that will be the first weekend where its grossed clearly lower than the orig flm (2nd and 3rd weekends were similar levels, and thats with A2 having the disadvantage of Christmas eve and New years eev in its weekend numbers)

But at the smae time we have to remember than A2 has a 85mil lead over the first film at the same point, so it can afford to lose SOME pace.

 

700+mil is my personal target and i still feel it can do it.

 

But A2 had the huge advantage of opening 74% higher.

[SchumacherFTW]

18 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

TGM weekend should have been around 38-41m if not for fathers day sunday, instead it grosse 44m.

 

 

Well, it is the daddest dad movie to ever dad. 

[Tokugennumataka]

3 minutes ago, Xavier said:

6,8m is very good, but is the stupid doll movie cutting into God Cameron's legs? I will need it to stop doing that.

If the audience interest remains high, A2 will leg out spectacularly. The marketplace is big. It can handle two different movies, with likely minimal audience overlap between them, making bank. For reference, see Avatar 1, it faced multiple 15M+ openers debuting in 3,000+ cinemas in the same weekend along with a 30M+ opener, and came our unfazed. It happened because the audience interest and positive word of mouth was fueling repeat viewings. 

[stuart360]

15 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

 

It should be so close to 1.7bil by the end of the weekend. Maybe 20mil away.

[stuart360]

9 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

But A2 had the huge advantage of opening 74% higher.

Yeah and without both Eve's, th 2nd and 3rd weekends would of been higher than the orig film.

I think its a little unfair to expect the same drops when you open that much higher.

 

Still after the OW, A2 had a 57mil lead. After the 3rd weekend, A2 had a 83mil lead.

Edited January 6, 2023 by stuart360

[M37]

11 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

The reasoning was that M3GAN being PG-13 might see better drop than other R rated horror flicks. Also OWs should see smaller Sat bumps and slightly lower Sun drops.

I think Jan 2022 is bad a comp generally because of COVID, but the one place it may be relevant is being the first BO year of NFL’s extended regular season. Previously, the 1st January weekend had 2 playoff games on Saturday, helping to flatten the drops from Sat to Sun, whereas most of that audience loss will be just on Sunday this year 
 

I have Avatwo at -35% Sun, which I think will lead the field, and everything else at -40% or above