Weekdays Thread (1/9-12)

[Eric Prime]

https://deadline.com/2023/01/box-office-plane-gerard-butler-the-avatar-way-of-water-m3gan-1235221135/

 

Quote

Here’s the thing, technically, Otto is the richer: If you count the Marc Forster directed title’s Thursday cash of $420K from 637 theaters, the pic made $1.06M yesterday. However, Sony will count the preview night cash from 2,493 theaters (which had showtimes start at 2PM yesterday) toward Otto’s Friday. Otto expands to 3,800 locations. Pic’s running total sans previews through two weeks is $6.2M.

 

Neither Otto nor Plane looks to rule over the 4-day MLK weekend with respective projections of $8M and $7M-$10M as Disney/20th/Lightstorm’s Avatar: The Way of Water looks to lead with $35M.. Plane had two sets of previews on Wednesday and Thursday which started at 7PM. The Butler pic is booked at 3,023 theaters. Avatar 2 finished its fourth week with close to $60M at 4,340 theaters and a running total of $531.7M. Avatar 2 led all movies yesterday with $2.92M, -8% from Wednesday.

 

Universal/Blumhouse/Atomic Monster’s M3GAN ends week one at 3,509 locations with $38.5M after a $1.67M Thursday, -6% from Wednesday. The pic is roughly $400K shy of Scream‘s first week take of $38.9M last year.

 

Universal/DreamWorks Animation’s Puss in Boots: The Last Wish at 3,919 did $1.08M on Thursday, -5% from Wednesday, a third week of $18.3M and running cume of $92.9M.

 

[Elessar]

1 hour ago, Eric the Plane said:

Is people saying mean things about a kids movie focusing on blue aliens really that terrible?

 

[Cooper Legion]

2,92 in the deadline article. 1.08 for puss. Keyser might be super close with actuals.

Edited January 13, 2023 by Legion in Boots

[MikeQ]

38 minutes ago, M37 said:

Outside of December, hitting 2.2x (or even 2.1x) is considered really good legs for a top level opening (Shang-Chi was 2.13x, for example). But for  December debuts, both the holiday boost and the fact that people don't rush out as quickly knowing they have a 3-week window helps to inflate OW/OWeek ratios so much more than the rest of the year (especially true for the Wed before Xmas openings).

 

First of all, @M37, I'm so grateful for all of your analyses - forever and always. Thank you.

 

This point is well taken, but this doesn't exactly reference the original argument being made: which is that The Way of Water's legs (a 5x multiplier, if it manages to hit that milestone - still very much uncertain) is normal for a December opener.

 

It's clear that December openers have leggier runs, on average, due to the holidays - and so direct comparisons to other times of year is problematic. (Though I appreciate that this was worth mentioning - since we do get new folks stopping by who aren't as cognizant of this.) Same can be said of comparing summer films to other times of year (minus December holidays) since these films benefit from boosted summer weekdays.

 

If a 5x multiplier for Friday openers was normal in December, regardless of gross, then we would see this happening at a higher rate than we do now, IMO. I suppose it depends on what our definition of "normal" is. We could make an argument that 5x is not as exceptional for a December opener - in general - and I think that would be a fair point. I think probably a 6x multiplier is a better milestone to look to, since only 5 films opening to $20+ million (Friday openers) have achieved this milestone.

 

And yet, this conversation about multipliers still requires more nuance. Other factors that influence legs and must be considered are: the genre of the film; the size of the opening weekend; the year of release (films have gotten progressively less leggy, on average, particularly with the addition of midnights, then previews, and now previews that start earlier and earlier such that we have effectively a 4-day opening weekend); the novelty factor (is the film a traditional offering within an existing genre, is it part of a known IP, a sequel, etc); and more (including the obvious: WOM).

 

Family animated films, for example, are significantly over-represented among the best multipliers of all-time for $70+ million Friday openers. The first time I shared my list of multipliers for these films, I provided an analysis that took into account the various factors that influence legs, but haven't continued to do that each time I've shared the list - assuming these nuances are self-evident to us box office nerds - but perhaps it is worth reminding us all.

 

In sum, if Way of Water does have strong late legs and manages to hit 5x, I think this is an exceptionally strong run - given the opening, the genre, etc. Lower opening and family/animated films are more apt to achieve long legs, including in December. The fact that most folks were not expecting a 5x multiplier after it opened (the conversation circled around the fact that it was following Rogue One legs closely), suggests to me that its strength into its third and fourth weekends were unexpected - in other words, not considered normal. (Supporting this is that the majority of entrants into the weekend prediction contests for the third and fourth weekends underestimated each weekend gross.) If other blockbusters at the level of Way of Water hit the 5+ multiplier over the coming decade, I'm genuinely open to changing my mind - because it's certainly true that we don't have a large sample of films to look to at this level. AND, we still have a lot of run to go - if Way of Water falls off a cliff this weekend and onwards, then we have new information to parse.

 

When we discuss these kinds of factors as a community, we're getting into the areas of box office analysis that aren't black and white. We should remain respectful and collegial - rigid and insulting posts aren't as persuasive, anyway.

 

Peace,

Mike

[Cooper Legion]

To be clear @MikeQ, what I’ve said is that it’s within the normal range, but in the good-great portion thereof. Not that they are completely normal I.e. the middle of the expected range.

Edited January 13, 2023 by Legion in Boots

[Jiffy]

16 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

2,92 in the deadline article. 1.08 for puss. Keyser might be super close with actuals.

Aw wanted $3m at least.

[Alexdube]

1 hour ago, Legion in Boots said:

 

You can take the silence as I’m doing other things right now. quick look:

Incredibles 2 clearly would have been over 100 and I think ~4.5-5 range, overall I’d expect more impressive legs given the opening if dates were equal 

The dark Knight clearly over 100 and probably 4.5-5x legs, same overall opinions

Black Panther same as above 2

Finding Dory comfortably over 100 and over 5x imo

TS4 over 5x imo, ow equivalent is like 140 in June so probably clears 100 in December but not totally confident?

TS3 easy both

Shrek 2 very easily both

The jungle book over 5x, 100 unclear

 Wonder Woman would have been over 5x with this date, 100 seems tough

HP1 over 100 easily, 5x ish, overall more impressive with same date

Passion of the Christ easily both

Avatar 1 the most impressive obv

Incredibles 1 probably 5x ballpark, easily over 100

Finding Nemo easily both

Bruce Almighty looks big enough OW, 5x maybe

TPM easily both 

Monsters inc easily both

Signs probably ~5x, OW looks maybe

TS2 easily

how the grinch stole Christmas easily over 5x, 100 probably

Batman forever OW easily, 5x maybe

JP1 easily both

Meet the fockers easily both

 

Might have a couple midweek open false negatives there, tried to double check and remove ones that looked suspicious

 

 

 

That's a long list but quantity doesn't equate quality

Lots of older movies, lots of movies that don't even clear 4x, 

Lots of animated movies of course

Any actual December releases?

Batman Forever? dude...

I am not impressed

[Firepower]

Ugly drops, just ugly. It needs a miracle this weekend.

[marveldcfox]

Overall, an epicly disappointing week. 

 

Let's see what the weekend brings.

 

Matching TGM domestically is going to be a tall task let alone avatar 1 domestically. 

[Borobudur]

After a whole meh week, A2 lose more than $10m of lead over TGM. Now the running total is about $40m ahead of TGM. If A2 can't cover this lose over the long weekend, I would say passing TGM is basically dead given that TGM had insane hold after this. 

[Alex SciChannel]

Just came out of Puss and Boots for the 5th time. Expect my $8 matinee to contribute to today's box office.

[Jiffy]

1 hour ago, marveldcfox said:

Overall, an epicly disappointing week. 

 

Let's see what the weekend brings.

 

Matching TGM domestically is going to be a tall task let alone avatar 1 domestically. 

I don't think A1 was ever realistically on the table after its opening.

[DaFlexi]

14 minutes ago, Jiffy said:

I don't think A1 was ever realistically on the table after its opening.

It's original run very much was and still kind of is. 35mil plus 3 day and 45mil plus 4 day and i can see it happen in the absolute best case scenario. Still sticking to my 675-725 prediction though. 

[titanic2187]

19 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Just came out of Puss and Boots for the 5th time. Expect my $8 matinee to contribute to today's box office.

Very impressive to see PIB2 is now double of what Sing 2 made on the same Thursday last night after failed to even reach half of Sing 2's OD.  The box office run of PIB2 so far behave more like a movie with A+ cinemascore instead of Sing2. I hope the Oscar nomination on 24 Jan can bring new families into  cinema since this is basically the only animated nominee that play wide in the theater. 

 

[Alex SciChannel]

8 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Very impressive to see PIB2 is now double of what Sing 2 made on the same Thursday last night after failed to even reach half of Sing 2's OD.  The box office run of PIB2 so far behave more like a movie with A+ cinemascore instead of Sing2. I hope the Oscar nomination on 24 Jan can bring new families into  cinema since this is basically the only animated nominee that play wide in the theater. 

 

I think it's because Sing 2 is a very shallow film that easily pleases young kids so the cinemascore is an easy A+. A babysitter movie if you wil, aka something you turn on to not have to deal with a kid for an hour and a half.

 

PiB has actual artistry and some pretty scary moments for younger kids. Something I bet Karen moms weren't fans of when rating it likely. But it's doing so well I think because it's starting to reach toward a wider demographic. Like tweens and young teens. 

 

For example, my theater was basically empty because it was a matinee. That was except 3 teen aged kids. And they actually payed attention to the movie. They didn't just buy a ticket to have sex in an empty theater.

Edited January 13, 2023 by Alex SciChannel

[Flip]

56 minutes ago, Jiffy said:

I don't think A1 was ever realistically on the table after its opening.

you cant determine legs just off an opening, A1 was only off the table after the realization that the weekdays wouldn't be close to as strong as the original

[Jiffy]

Getting $650m Dom / $2B WW is great. Anything extra is gravy, although toppling TGM in the US would have been nice.

[kayumanggi]

No one's posting the numbers? 😅

[kayumanggi]

 

Edited January 13, 2023 by kayumanggi

[kayumanggi]