stuart360 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Seeing as it looks like we are not having a weekend prediction thread, i'll leave my predictions here - 35mil 3 day weekend. 44mil 4 day weekend. 577mil total after the 4 day weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 10 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said: Was there a game last night? Not a playoff game. Best you got is the Golden Globes. NFL playoff games are Sat (4pm EST onward), Sun (1pm EST onward), and Mon (8pm EST onward)... Best game is Monday night... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tokugennumataka Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Meh for A2. Not gonna change my weekend projections right now, which was based on a 3.0M Thursday. Still thinking 32M+ 3 day and 40M+ 4 day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontofan Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Will say 650 million seems the target not 700 million. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex SciChannel Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 (edited) 11 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said: Best you got is the Golden Globes. Where Puss in Boots TLW did not win Best animated feature even though it should've 😠. Dont get me wrong, GT Pinnochio was good, great even. But I think PiB was marginally better. Edited January 11, 2023 by Alex SciChannel 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuart360 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Its pretty funny how some of us are reacting to these Monday and Tuesday numbers, and i include myslef in that. I mean wasnt the 'dissapointing' Monday like top 5 biggest 4th Mondays ever or something?.😁 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 11 minutes ago, stuart360 said: Its pretty funny how some of us are reacting to these Monday and Tuesday numbers, and i include myslef in that. I mean wasnt the 'dissapointing' Monday like top 5 biggest 4th Mondays ever or something?.😁 Its par of the course when you follow the box office of phenomenon films i think. Youre getting used to be amazed by amazing numbers so when the film says "You know what? Here, have a perfectly solid number instead", you are for a short time thrown out of the loop, despite the number - like in this case - beeing solid and acceptable in the bigger picture since well have to wait for Friday and Saturday to determine anything with Avatar going forward. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said: 4.3 2.6 1.4 But really: 1 hour ago, XXR the Conqueror said: Those terms are relative. Actuals will probably be 4.4-4.5 which puts A2 about ~155% ahead of R1 equivalent Tuesday and ~60% ahead of NWH. 1 hour ago, Legion in Boots said: But basically the rule for closely analyzing Tuesdays is — don’t 25 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said: Meh for A2. Not gonna change my weekend projections right now, which was based on a 3.0M Thursday. Still thinking 32M+ 3 day and 40M+ 4 day. Still look to be on track for at least a $30M+ 3-day, in range of topping Titanic & TGM for 2nd best all-time 5th weekend (with a holiday assist) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Seems like big tuesday not happen this year or last around christmas. Look at other movies too its the same. No Way Home has the same thing. A2 1st Mon: 16.26m A2 1st Tue: 18.29m +12.5% A2 2nd Tue: 24.13m A2 2nd Wed: 20.58m -17% drop A2 3rd Tue: 10.54 A2 3rd Wed: 7.48 -29% drop Not sure why people were expecting 40% jump tbh. Yesterday needed to be higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJohn Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 17 minutes ago, IronJimbo said: Seems like big tuesday not happen this year or last around christmas. Look at other movies too its the same. No Way Home has the same thing. A2 1st Mon: 16.26m A2 1st Tue: 18.29m +12.5% A2 2nd Tue: 24.13m A2 2nd Wed: 20.58m -17% drop A2 3rd Tue: 10.54 A2 3rd Wed: 7.48 -29% drop Not sure why people were expecting 40% jump tbh. Yesterday needed to be higher Because we are not in the holidays anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alexdube Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Torontofan said: Will say 650 million seems the target not 700 million. 650 is more like the rockbottom floor. If it did that exact same kind of money TFA did starting from the same point today, it would bring it to around 642. But Avatar will certainly make more than that because: 1- it's already having better dailies than TFA (on weekdays too, and should perform relatively better on weekends) 2- from both the trajectory these movies are having and the history of both franchises, Avatar will continue to have stronger legs Edited January 11, 2023 by Alexdube 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 (edited) 8 minutes ago, CJohn said: Because we are not in the holidays anymore. Go look at No Way Home Tuesdays from last year, that's jan and feb Edited January 11, 2023 by IronJimbo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 22 minutes ago, IronJimbo said: Seems like big tuesday not happen this year or last around christmas. Look at other movies too its the same. No Way Home has the same thing. A2 1st Mon: 16.26m A2 1st Tue: 18.29m +12.5% A2 2nd Tue: 24.13m A2 2nd Wed: 20.58m -17% drop A2 3rd Tue: 10.54 A2 3rd Wed: 7.48 -29% drop Not sure why people were expecting 40% jump tbh. Yesterday needed to be higher 1st Tuesday bump is almost always smaller, as 1st Monday is inflated with "weekend leftover" audience The second two are holiday impacted, so not normal. This was the first real weekday Tuesday, and coming off what was probably a softer Monday from the CFB NC. But it really doesn't matter if the Tuesday bump was (and continues to be) smaller, Wednesday is still the key day, if it can match - or even exceed - the $3.47 of Monday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 1 minute ago, M37 said: 1st Tuesday bump is almost always smaller, as 1st Monday is inflated with "weekend leftover" audience The second two are holiday impacted, so not normal. This was the first real weekday Tuesday, and coming off what was probably a softer Monday from the CFB NC. But it really doesn't matter if the Tuesday bump was (and continues to be) smaller, Wednesday is still the key day, if it can match - or even exceed - the $3.47 of Monday Tuesday bumps last jan and feb were so small too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 49 minutes ago, Brainbug said: Its par of the course when you follow the box office of phenomenon films i think. Youre getting used to be amazed by amazing numbers so when the film says "You know what? Here, have a perfectly solid number instead", you are for a short time thrown out of the loop, despite the number - like in this case - beeing solid and acceptable in the bigger picture since well have to wait for Friday and Saturday to determine anything with Avatar going forward. Absolutely. Avatwo is doing 4M+ in its freaking 26th day... ... In a January weekday ... With a 3 hour+ runtime ... Despite Sports ... Despite weather ... And in not favorable market conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Rich Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 11 minutes ago, IronJimbo said: Tuesday bumps last jan and feb were so small too! IIRC, the discount Tuesdays were not back in full force then if at all. They didn't fully return until later in the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said: Tuesday bumps last jan and feb were so small too! Smaller sure, but still mostly in the +25-40% range for both this week and the next non-holiday Tuesday. Its only the more younger skewing titles that get the sub 20/25% Tue bumps (ie NWH is not a great weekday/daily pattern comp at this point in the run), while the senior heavy titles can blow up on Tue to +60% or above The past week has been pretty damn close to TFA track for the same part of the calendar: From Fri to Tue: TFA = +79/-35/-75/+24 A2 = +81/-34/-75/+24 (depending on actuals) ...and would point to a ~$30M weekend depending on Wed (and if it saw the same +100% on Friday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 1.4M for Puss is kind of disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophia Jane Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 6 minutes ago, M37 said: Smaller sure, but still mostly in the +25-40% range for both this week and the next non-holiday Tuesday. Its only the more younger skewing titles that get the sub 20/25% Tue bumps (ie NWH is not a great weekday/daily pattern comp at this point in the run), while the senior heavy titles can blow up on Tue to +60% or above The past week has been pretty damn close to TFA track for the same part of the calendar: From Fri to Tue: TFA = +79/-35/-75/+24 A2 = +81/-34/-75/+24 (depending on actuals) ...and would point to a ~$30M weekend depending on Wed (and if it saw the same +100% on Friday) 3 or 4 day weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex SciChannel Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 (edited) 10 minutes ago, YM! said: 1.4M for Puss is kind of disappointing. Yea it kind of is. Only 24% increase when Jumanji, Sings and TGS made 30%+. The only hope now is that actuals end up higher. I also haven't had a concise answer from the forum on why the increase was muted today for PiB. Some said local regional holidays on Monday but I looked it up and there were none on the 9th. Others said holiday spillover but that doesn't make sense because why didn't any of the comps from previous years I mentioned be affected? Edited January 11, 2023 by Alex SciChannel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
