MLK Weekend Thread (1/13-16) | 3-day/4-day Estimates: Avatar 32.4M/40.6M, M3GAN 18.26M/21.72M, Puss 14.39M/19.04M, Otto 12.8M/15.33M, Plane 10M/12.03M, House Party 4M/4.73M

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

5 over $10m is fantastic.

 

Avatar looked like maybe fading a bit and that Saturday hits and is so impressive. M3gan treading with fairly mundane weekday numbers but looks like it's going to post a really solid second week drop for a horror and just an absolutely terrific Saturday hold for PUSS!!!!!!!!!

 

C'Mon for that level weekend Puss!

[mike&night]

Great weekend overall.

 

 Very intrigued by Avatar 2’s legs moving forward. Let’s see if it can maintain strong weekend legs on par with TGM. Ideally it could even surpass it, but for now I’m thinking $680M is the ceiling. 
 

 

[Firepower]

A2 is saved????

[Brainbug]

13 minutes ago, Firepower said:

A2 is saved????

 

Until next Wednesday.

[Sophia Jane]

3 hours ago, Shanks said:

Do Studio's earn more if it legs out? I thought it was Theatres that make more if movie legs out but because Price would decrease a lot over dozens of weekend, even with higher share of cut, Theatres would be getting low amount of money. Don't assume I am asking because of generic Marvel or Avatar run, it's simple curiosity that occurred to when I was looking through Admission numbers, Grosses and the ATP getting lower and lower as weekends went on~

 

Selling 10M tickets in 1st Weekend with highest ATP is way more profitable for both Studio and Theatres rather than spreading out those 10M Admissions in 20 Weekends. 

 

Someone knowledgeable enough explain me, What am I missing here - What exactly led to this belief that a movie opening to 100m & legging to 800M in thirty weeks is better than movie making 800M in two weeks and dying next day. 

The leggy run is creating the new brand, the opening fan rush is using the brand power,that’s the different thing which shows different effect

If the movie could leggy out to your number,like 800m ,and open just 70m(for example),then it means the movie must cause the social phenomena,if the leggy run shows everywhere on the earth,then we can say the movie must rise the global sensation

We wouldn’t surprise if the big franchise like Star Wars doing it,but if the movie which nobody knows doing that,it will be the true social event and rise the new brand

For exmaple,Frozen,the movie leggy out to 1300m,beating the IP Ironman 3 as the global champion,then guess what,Frozen become the the Franchise which earns $10B with just a single movie,Elsa’s face shows out every 1 years old girls clothes and ‘Let it Go’song play in every street

If we have the movie without franchise power and do the same number like a big franchise,then congurlations we have the new global brand

That’s the meaning of leggy run

 

Edited January 15, 2023 by Bruce

[stuart360]

20 hours ago, stuart360 said:

It shouldnt be far off.

7

13-14

10

9

39-40mil.

 

If Friday ends up 7.5-8 with actuals, it can easily do over 40mil.

I posted this yesterday and had a few replies saying i was basically wrong, especially with the Saturday number

[stuart360]

If the NFL games really do have the effect some poeple say on here, it makes you wonder what kind of weekend numbers A2 would be having if there was no football.

 

Would the NFL schedule of been the same back in 2009 with the first AVATAR?.

[titanic2187]

19 hours ago, John Marston said:

Avatar slowing down a bit but that's OK of course since it will make 650m or so. Still it is awesome Top Gun will be number 1 domestically

 

 

Until A2 deplete its lead over TGM, I won't declare TGM is safe. 

 

Anyway, glad to see two blockbusters that actually show sincerity in production value and top class filmmaking engineering prevail at the top box office list.  

[KGPatt2]

10 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

If the NFL games really do have the effect some poeple say on here, it makes you wonder what kind of weekend numbers A2 would be having if there was no football.

 

Would the NFL schedule of been the same back in 2009 with the first AVATAR?.

It would have been similar. Back then there were less regular season games and less playoff teams, so the playoffs would have started a week earlier and had 1 less playoff game in the first round, but overall would be about the same.

[Borobudur]

I am happy for A2' Saturday number but we can't really just live off with a great one Saturday and the rest of the meh-to-tepid day. And aren't we suppose to expect some impacts from NFL? Does this mean Sunday will be great too since Sunday has less NFL games? 

[corngrower87]

13 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Until A2 deplete its lead over TGM, I won't declare TGM is safe. 

 

Anyway, glad to see two blockbusters that actually show sincerity in production value and top class filmmaking engineering prevail at the top box office list.  

I think we’ll have a fairly good idea after next weekend. It will just be a regular three day for Avatar, but the sixth weekend for Maverick was the Fourth of July inflated four day. It will be very telling going forward what the gap is then, especially with the loss of so many PLFs on the horizon for Avatar. 

[stuart360]

2 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

I am happy for A2' Saturday number but we can't really just live off with a great one Saturday and the rest of the meh-to-tepid day. And aren't we suppose to expect some impacts from NFL? Does this mean Sunday will be great too since Sunday has less NFL games? 

We have to remember its going to be close to 570mil after this weekend, around 600mil after next weekend.

Its not like the film only opened a week or two ago and is giving us average weekdays.

The film has already madea  large part of its final gross.

 

Some of us also did say this would become a weekend film after the holidays are over, mainly due to its runtime.

[corngrower87]

4 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

I am happy for A2' Saturday number but we can't really just live off with a great one Saturday and the rest of the meh-to-tepid day. And aren't we suppose to expect some impacts from NFL? Does this mean Sunday will be great too since Sunday has less NFL games? 

Sunday actually has more NFL games, and arguably those have a bigger draw than yesterday’s. 

[M37]

21 hours ago, M37 said:

It needs a Jumanji or Sing 2 like weekend pattern from that Friday (5.77x and 5.70x respectively), which I don't think is a reasonable expectation. For comparison, NWH was a 4.75x last year, but that's probably too low, though only the two family movies (Sing 2 and GA) were better than +68% on MLK/NFL Playoff Saturday

 

Avatwo is a better Sat/Sun movie than a typical blockbuster, but not family movie good.  Mid to high $30s far more likely

 

9 hours ago, Brainbug said:

96,4% (!!) jump for Avatar.
96,6% for Puss (based on the 5,9M number)

 

 

[Joyous Legion]

Just as these were the first real weekdays, this is the first real sat bump from weekday fri. Runtime considerations finally running at max power.

[kayumanggi]

58 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

I posted this yesterday and had a few replies saying i was basically wrong, especially with the Saturday number

 

[upriser7]

56 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

If the NFL games really do have the effect some poeple say on here, it makes you wonder what kind of weekend numbers A2 would be having if there was no football.

 

Would the NFL schedule of been the same back in 2009 with the first AVATAR?.

NFL games will definitely have significant effect because 90% of the top100 most watched events on TV every year in US are NFL games. I would estimate the impact of NFL games on boxoffice to be around 10-15% on an average. You can notice this during the weekends where we have no NFL games...you tend to see lesser drops at boxoffice on these weekends than previous week when NFL games were being played. You will see lesser drop in Feb 3rd-5th weekend for Avatar2 as that'd be the first weekend in a long time without any NFL games.

 

NFL schedule was also slightly different back in 2009. There were slightly less number of games back then and season would be finished by February Week1 whereas now, season finishes by February Week2 as NFL added an extra week to schedule 2 years ago. Also there were less number of playoff games back then than now...until 3 years ago we typically used to have only 4 playoff games this weekend but due to playoff expansion, we now have 6 playoff games this weekend spread across Saturday - Monday

Edited January 15, 2023 by upriser7

[IronJimbo]

FLOP: Mon, Wed, Thu

Confusion: Tue, Fri

OMG: Sat, Sun

 

same song and dance every week

[TwoMisfits]

3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

FLOP: Mon, Wed, Thu

Confusion: Tue, Fri

OMG: Sat, Sun

 

same song and dance every week

 

And we still end up at $650M DOM:)...give or take $10M...

[LinksterAC]

1 hour ago, stuart360 said:

If the NFL games really do have the effect some poeple say on here, it makes you wonder what kind of weekend numbers A2 would be having if there was no football.

 

Would the NFL schedule of been the same back in 2009 with the first AVATAR?.

I have doubts the NFL playoff games really do have a marginal effect vs the regular season until the Super Bowl, but I honestly haven’t researched it too deeply.

 

Yes, they get insane viewership numbers, but there’s also very few of them & zero college games, so I wonder how much of that is just moving the same eyeballs from a vast array of games to a handful of games instead.

Edited January 15, 2023 by LinksterAC