MLK Weekend Thread (1/13-16) | 3-day/4-day Estimates: Avatar 32.4M/40.6M, M3GAN 18.26M/21.72M, Puss 14.39M/19.04M, Otto 12.8M/15.33M, Plane 10M/12.03M, House Party 4M/4.73M

[Firepower]

59 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

nothing's over while i'm breathing

[stuart360]

2 minutes ago, teard1972 said:

 

I don't think the new Avengers movies going to match the original. most importantly though, Marvel movies are basically studio products rather than "A James Cameron Film" thing. Titanic and Avatars exist only because of Cameron.  

Well i didnt want to say that but yeah, pople will be seeing Avengers because its the Avengers, not because of the director, who could be anyone really.

 

And i think if we get another MCU stage of multiple movies, finishing off with another multiple Avengers films that finish off that stage, i could then see Avengers possibly hitting 2bil.

 

Unlike many on here, i do actually think attendancies will improve over the coming years, and get back to pre-pandemic levels.

 

Its just going to take time for people to realize again that nothing at the home beats the cinema going experience.

[XXR & Friends]

25 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

That $8.2m Monday projection seems almost too good to be true. I know Disney often lowballs their projections but that would be 80% higher than NWH managed last year on the same holiday Monday. Even on Saturday, which most consider to be A2s strongest day of the week it only beat it by 59% (13.8m vs 8.7m). Generally on other days recently it's only been outpacing NWH by 30-40% so what could be the reason for such a big uptick? Maybe Disney overestimated for a change? Do we have any early Monday numbers here?

NWH dropped 27% from Sunday on the equivalent MLK Monday. Projecting $8.2M is a slightly bigger % drop that that. If anything, I’m expecting it to reach the $8.5-9M range.

[teard1972]

9 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Well i didnt want to say that but yeah, pople will be seeing Avengers because its the Avengers, not because of the director, who could be anyone really.

 

And i think if we get another MCU stage of multiple movies, finishing off with another multiple Avengers films that finish off that stage, i could then see Avengers possibly hitting 2bil.

 

Unlike many on here, i do actually think attendancies will improve over the coming years, and get back to pre-pandemic levels.

 

Its just going to take time for people to realize again that nothing at the home beats the cinema going experience.

 

just my feeling that the new Avengers rosters cannot compete with the original, Tony, Black Widow, and Captain. There used to have clear stars with nice supporting cast, now every hero seems to just blend together. Then, the unlimited extended Marvel universe (not just cinematic now) and around the clock release schedule are going to hurt the event feel Marvel movies. 

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

9 minutes ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

NWH dropped 27% from Sunday on the equivalent MLK Monday. Projecting $8.2M is a slightly bigger % drop that that. If anything, I’m expecting it to reach the $8.5-9M range.

I guess the real overperformance was Sunday then (11.6m vs. NWHs 6.2m Sunday for 87% gain) but that's kinda reasonable because of the runtime pushing people into viewing A2 on days where they have the entire day off. It's the same reason it performs so well on Saturdays in normal weeks. Seeing it hold so well on a Monday where I'd have guessed fewer people (proportionally) would choose to attend the late showing compared with NWH because of the runtime is surprising.

Edited January 16, 2023 by IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son

[Elessar]

52 minutes ago, M37 said:

No, because it will be falling from a holiday Sunday that won’t repeat, so ~5% worse than Tue for the w/e, unless Wed & Thur show something different (smaller drops). This Tue also possibly a tad inflated from holiday spillover with a few more people off than usual

 

I believe FRI and SAT jumps will be even bigger than last week's which will make up for the SUN drop. Plus THU might drop a tad less.

Edited January 17, 2023 by Elessar

[Elessar]

33 minutes ago, Mr Roark said:

Without China no future MCU film will ever top Titanic.

 

Phase 21 of the MCU in 2060 might do it because inflation.

Edited January 17, 2023 by Elessar

[corngrower87]

8 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

I believe FRI and SAT jumps will be even bigger than last week's which will make up for the SUN drop.

Friday’s jump will have to be bigger if this the Thursday to Thursday drop is anything close to what it did drop this past Thursday…

[Dale Cooper]

32 minutes ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

NWH dropped 27% from Sunday on the equivalent MLK Monday. Projecting $8.2M is a slightly bigger % drop that that. If anything, I’m expecting it to reach the $8.5-9M range.

Wasn't it some sort of weather impact last year on SUN/MON of the MLK weekend as well? Seems most movies fell hard harder on the Sunday.

[Alexdube]

1 hour ago, stuart360 said:

I think JW is gone, in fact i'm certain of it as A2 would only need around 53mil off a 21-22mil weekend.

Its bound to do that.

I don't doubt it

I'm seeing this end around 700 as well

[IronJimbo]

21 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

Phase 21 of the MCU in 2060 might do it because inflation.

with the speed global inflation is increaseing due to a multitude of devastating factors such as pandemic/war and a rebound of the initial 08 banking crash a dollar might lose half it's value by 2030

[corngrower87]

15 minutes ago, Dale Cooper said:

Wasn't it some sort of weather impact last year on SUN/MON of the MLK weekend as well? Seems most movies fell hard harder on the Sunday.

I don’t know how wide spread it was, but we had an ice storm last year over MLK weekend. I was one of the few idiots brave enough to go to the cinema. (Full disclosure: I saw Scream)

[GOGODanca]

I don't think attendance will get back to pre pandemic levels, it has been decreasing since 2002 and covid only accelerated that and with ever increasing ticket prices,many families will just choose a night in and repeat viewership will be much lower. 

[M37]

51 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

I believe FRI and SAT jumps will be even bigger than last week's which will make up for the SUN drop. Plus THU might drop a tad less.

I’m going to work up a more formal projection tomorrow, but looking at the last couple of years that does seem to be the case (though I’m not sure why?), and that ~$21M number is probably too low, more like $24M as starting point 

[upriser7]

8 minutes ago, M37 said:

I’m going to work up a more formal projection tomorrow, but looking at the last couple of years that does seem to be the case (though I’m not sure why?), and that ~$21M number is probably too low, more like $24M as starting point 

I feel like this is the first time during A2's run - you are more optimistic about A2's next weekend number than general consensus on BOT

[upriser7]

Not sure what I wanna see more...Cowboys losing or Brady losing.

[Dragoncaine]

31 minutes ago, M37 said:

I’m going to work up a more formal projection tomorrow, but looking at the last couple of years that does seem to be the case (though I’m not sure why?), and that ~$21M number is probably too low, more like $24M as starting point 

A 26% week-to-week drop as your starting point would add another terrific weekend to this movie's run, though of course we do have the historical trend of this weekend holding even better than last holiday weekend over the past few years iirc. Pretty cool, hope it pans out!

[M37]

52 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

I feel like this is the first time during A2's run - you are more optimistic about A2's next weekend number than general consensus on BOT

As much as some people may believe otherwise, I really don't have an agenda other than trying to be right. Could certainly argue I've been leaning more on the expected, so it appears like pessimism because the results have consistently been above that baseline, (such as seeing it perform more like a family movie on Sat/Sun this weekend and getting ~$4M more for the 3-day than the Friday number suggested was coming)

[Alex SciChannel]

Just saw Puss in Boots for the 6th time t

[interiorgatordecorator]

15 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Just saw Puss in Boots for the 6th time t

 

why?

Puss in Boots 2 is the ones that prety good, Puss in Boots is just ok