Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania — Weekend Thread | 105.5M 3-Day, 120M 4-Day

[1Robert1]

AWOW will not win with infinity war, right?

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, 1Robert1 said:

AWOW will not win with infinity war, right?

can you formulate this question in a different way

[Killimano3]

I'm not very knowledgeable on this subject but assuming the numbers people have stated are true why is it that most big blockbusters seem to have Caucasian percentages in the 30-40% range for most big films? I would assume that it should roughly be similar to the population. Some movies would skew based on what age range they are targeted at, but Caucasian population is still at least 50% for even young adults I think. Plus if anything I always assumed older people were more likely to go the movies as young people were more into streaming and other media. 

[PlatnumRoyce]

14 minutes ago, Killimano3 said:

I'm not very knowledgeable on this subject but assuming the numbers people have stated are true why is it that most big blockbusters seem to have Caucasian percentages in the 30-40% range for most big films? I would assume that it should roughly be similar to the population. Some movies would skew based on what age range they are targeted at, but Caucasian population is still at least 50% for even young adults I think. Plus if anything I always assumed older people were more likely to go the movies as young people were more into streaming and other media. 

I would amend that to mid 30s to mid 40s but that's not exactly right either. 

The MPAA publishes a yearly theme report which includes "2 week posttrak data for the top 5 grossing films domestically. The raw average Caucasian % of all films in those lists (2013 - 2021) is  50.07 with a peak of 67% for 1917 (2020 weirdness) or 64% (Lego movie and catching fire) and a valley of 32% (Bad Boys 4 Life) or 36% (Black Panther 1). With stuff like Star Wars or GotG getting in the mid 50s

Can you reconcile this stuff with a hypothesis of an anti-caucasian/pro-hispanic bias on opening day itself (given that partial posttrak data often comes from thursday or friday) that fades away over time? Even 2 week posttrak at ~45/50% number leaves demographic data to explain. 
 

Here's e.g. the MPAA theme report for 2019 if you want to dive into some demo polls - PowerPoint Presentation (motionpictures.org) . it also includes age based frequency data based on polling.

Edited February 18, 2023 by PlatnumRoyce

[upriser7]

15 minutes ago, Killimano3 said:

I'm not very knowledgeable on this subject but assuming the numbers people have stated are true why is it that most big blockbusters seem to have Caucasian percentages in the 30-40% range for most big films? I would assume that it should roughly be similar to the population. Some movies would skew based on what age range they are targeted at, but Caucasian population is still at least 50% for even young adults I think. Plus if anything I always assumed older people were more likely to go the movies as young people were more into streaming and other media. 

 

I think this graph might explain it better. Caucasian share of overall US population in recent census was around 58% but If you look at more urban areas, it's even lower. For top50 cities, Caucasian % is just 36%, Hispanics is much higher at 30% and Black % is 19%. Whereas rural areas have much higher Caucasian % - almost close to 80%. Movie going audience skew more urban than rural, especially lot more these days and urban areas are lot less caucasian than overall country in general.

 

Also, movie going possibly decreased a lot among a section of conservative whites over the last decade due to their hatred of Hollywood. I doubt this section of people are gonna return back to theatres consistently even in future

 

Edited February 18, 2023 by upriser7

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

35 minutes ago, Killimano3 said:

I'm not very knowledgeable on this subject but assuming the numbers people have stated are true why is it that most big blockbusters seem to have Caucasian percentages in the 30-40% range for most big films? I would assume that it should roughly be similar to the population. Some movies would skew based on what age range they are targeted at, but Caucasian population is still at least 50% for even young adults I think. Plus if anything I always assumed older people were more likely to go the movies as young people were more into streaming and other media. 

 

There can be huge cultural diversity on this kind of issue that makes demos uneven.

 

For instance here in the UK, there are parts of the population with a higher density of people with South Asian backgrounds, and because lots of them - especially the Muslims - don't drink they therefore don't go to bars in the evening and instead go for group hangouts to either ice cream/dessert bars to hang out in the evening or the cinema. As such there is a disproportionate percentage of Asians who go to the cinema in my area matched against the national demo (reflected in films that are shown as well). 

 

So I imagine there are similar fluctuations in the US in terms of the general recreational choices - especially in the evenings - of people from various different cultural backgrounds that mean that the baseline cinemagoing breakdown demos aren't necessarily in line with the national demographic breakdown.

[Krissykins]

Surely there’s some pressure for Mario to compete with Sonic in terms of opening weekend? 
 

The last Sonic did $72m. 

[B D Joe]

2024 will be interesting to see how the MCU movies perform.  Captain America 4 and Thunderbolts are so heavily tied to meh phase 4 projects like Black Widow and Falcon and the Winter Soldier, we'll see how that affects them.

[SpiderByte]

17 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Surely there’s some pressure for Mario to compete with Sonic in terms of opening weekend? 
 

The last Sonic did $72m. 

Eh maybe? But Mario is animated so it's less of a direct comparison. It'll probably me more measured against other Illumination movies.

[SpiderByte]

2 minutes ago, B D Joe said:

2024 will be interesting to see how the MCU movies perform.  Captain America 4 and Thunderbolts are so heavily tied to meh phase 4 projects like Black Widow and Falcon and the Winter Soldier, we'll see how that affects them.

Cap 4 is reportedly, like Civil War, basically an Avengers movie in disguise, which should help with stuff like changing the main lead/cast (I'm assuming Bucky isn't in Cap 4 beyond a cameo if he's a lead in Thunderbolts)

[OncomingStorm93]

3 hours ago, Verrows said:

I agree with everything you've said here but think it can be way bigger than this. 

I do to, and I hope so, but I’ve got two months to reasonably crank up the prediction

[Krissykins]

11 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Eh maybe? But Mario is animated so it's less of a direct comparison. It'll probably me more measured against other Illumination movies.

I don’t really think so. I’m sure I seen someone here say that Mario has a bigger fan base than Sonic. And aren’t animated films easier sells than CGI character/Live action family films? 

[wildphantom]

41 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Surely there’s some pressure for Mario to compete with Sonic in terms of opening weekend? 
 

The last Sonic did $72m. 

it’ll blow past that in my opinion. They had a throwback rivalry in the early 90’s, but Mario and Nintendo’s characters are on a different planet of popularity now.  This is going to be a huge movie. I really do think many on here are going to be shocked at how well it does. 

[Flamengo81]

29 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I’m sure I seen someone here say that Mario has a bigger fan base than Sonic

And it for sure has, way bigger honestly...

[SpiderByte]

29 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I don’t really think so. I’m sure I seen someone here say that Mario has a bigger fan base than Sonic. And aren’t animated films easier sells than CGI character/Live action family films? 

Maybe? It depends. There's not really enough to go on yet in terms of how it might translate to box office. Mario is a super recognizable video game brand and the movie, so far, looks good. Till we get real numbers that's all we have to go on basically.

[M37]

9 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I don’t really think so. I’m sure I seen someone here say that Mario has a bigger fan base than Sonic. And aren’t animated films easier sells than CGI character/Live action family films? 

It cuts both ways: live action/CGI usually skews older, meaning you get more adults willing to watch, but also fewer younger kids. Full animation generally skews younger, more family heavy

 

That is until you get the realm of Pixar’s 10+ year sequels like Incredibles and Toy Story where former kids (and parents) are now going by themselves, on top of the next generation of families. 
 

So the ceiling is usually higher with LA/CGI, particularly for OW, because an animated movie has to clear the hurdle of being “just a kids movie”, which is difficult to do from the jump, but can happen over time (see Puss in Boots) and especially with sequels 

[corngrower87]

4 hours ago, GOGODanca said:

So with Titanic only being a 2 week release, will those 3D screens/showtimes go back to Avatar 2 or will they go to Ant Man?

My local AMC is giving Cocaine Bear Titanic’s screens. I don’t know how widespread that is though…

[Joyous Legion]

2 hours ago, upriser7 said:

 

I think this graph might explain it better. Caucasian share of overall US population in recent census was around 58% but If you look at more urban areas, it's even lower. For top50 cities, Caucasian % is just 36%, Hispanics is much higher at 30% and Black % is 19%. Whereas rural areas have much higher Caucasian % - almost close to 80%. Movie going audience skew more urban than rural, especially lot more these days and urban areas are lot less caucasian than overall country in general.

 

Also, movie going possibly decreased a lot among a section of conservative whites over the last decade due to their hatred of Hollywood. I doubt this section of people are gonna return back to theatres consistently even in future

 

Geographic skew is like one half of the story and the other half is age (though age and urban rural split are themselves entwined to a degree of course)

[Joyous Legion]

4 hours ago, Menor Reborn said:

Sat and Sun are too low imo. I think it'll get over 100. Feeling 32-33 Sat from the chain I'm tracking. 

I’ll put in 32.5-34.5 😉

[Krissykins]

54 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

it’ll blow past that in my opinion. They had a throwback rivalry in the early 90’s, but Mario and Nintendo’s characters are on a different planet of popularity now.  This is going to be a huge movie. I really do think many on here are going to be shocked at how well it does. 

 

38 minutes ago, Flamengo81 said:

And it for sure has, way bigger honestly...

 

38 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Maybe? It depends. There's not really enough to go on yet in terms of how it might translate to box office. Mario is a super recognizable video game brand and the movie, so far, looks good. Till we get real numbers that's all we have to go on basically.

 

30 minutes ago, M37 said:

It cuts both ways: live action/CGI usually skews older, meaning you get more adults willing to watch, but also fewer younger kids. Full animation generally skews younger, more family heavy

 

That is until you get the realm of Pixar’s 10+ year sequels like Incredibles and Toy Story where former kids (and parents) are now going by themselves, on top of the next generation of families. 
 

So the ceiling is usually higher with LA/CGI, particularly for OW, because an animated movie has to clear the hurdle of being “just a kids movie”, which is difficult to do from the jump, but can happen over time (see Puss in Boots) and especially with sequels 

Ah so from these four posts we have some expecting it to be bigger than sonic and then some uncertainty. 
 

It’ll be an interesting run for sure, either way.