Weekdays Thread (2/27-3/2) | Cocaine Bear's #1 on Wednesday. America's got a drug problem!

[kayumanggi]

 

[M37]

-64% week/week for AMWQ is by no means good, but rest of Tuesday numbers do confirm some inflation for previous weekdays due to some limited breaks 

 

Expecting upcoming weekend to be 9-10x Thur (was 8.5x last week), though the loss of PLFs to Creed III probably drags down the Wed and esp Thursday numbers 

[Dragoncaine]

Early aud scores from the EA Creed III previews are 97% from <50 verified users and 91% from 100+ unverified users.

[GOGODanca]

Finally a poorly recieved mcu film is bottoming out

[dxmatrixdt]

how do they ruin an Ant-Man movie about quantum physics, or titled Quantumania, i have not seen it yet? 

do they still have the dollar second run theaters?  I remember the first two Ant-Man movies did well on those, and i am pretty sure Bumblebee did well there too!

[nevermore]

 

[Nikostar]

25 minutes ago, Dragoncaine said:

Early aud scores from the EA Creed III previews are 97% from <50 verified users and 91% from 100+ unverified users.

A Cinamascore incoming

[efialtes76]

2 minutes ago, Nikostar said:

A Cinamascore incoming

Like Creed&Creed 2...

[Dragoncaine]

13 minutes ago, nevermore said:

 

$1.5m for AM3 would be back to where we originally thought it would land -- still bad, but better than the early $1.25m last night. 

[RamblinRed]

8 minutes ago, Dragoncaine said:

$1.5m for AM3 would be back to where we originally thought it would land -- still bad, but better than the early $1.25m last night. 

 

That would keep it exactly in line with what Unchartered did last year. Those drops would suggest a $1.5M Wed and $1.2M Thur.

 

I'm still thinking a weekend around $12.5M, around a 60% drop. Somewhere around $186.5M through Sunday.

 

 

[M37]

Around $1.5M Wed and $1.4M Thur is what I had mentally penciled in after Monday's numbers fwiw

 

AMWQ is going to be flirting with a 60% drop for weekend 3, though it may have just enough left to stay under at like $13-$14M

 

I've said as much before, but I think the more fan-heavy audience has already checked out due to WOM, leaving mostly GA, which is why its been dropping quickly and weekdays are particularly low. But could also mean PLF share is lower than normal, and losing those to Creed III won't be as harsh of an impact as some other titles in their 3rd week

[PlatnumRoyce]

1 hour ago, Dragoncaine said:

Early aud scores from the EA Creed III previews are 97% from <50 verified users and 91% from 100+ unverified users.

If anyone doesn't know this, you can look at HTML for "score-details-json" and pull the raw numbers. Right now it's 33 up - 1 down

which makes unverified 89% (74-9)

Edited March 2, 2023 by PlatnumRoyce

[Borobudur]

At this point, AM3 will only glad to pass $200m mark.

[stripe]

8 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

At this point, AM3 will only glad to pass $200m mark.

 

It should be at 186M+ after a low end 12M+ 3rd weekend. Likely scenario is 210-215M DOM.

[stuart360]

28 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

It should be at 186M+ after a low end 12M+ 3rd weekend. Likely scenario is 210-215M DOM.

I think there is a realistic chance it misses 212mil, which would mean under a 2x multiplier lol.

It doesnt happen often.

[GOGODanca]

Thor 4 had summer holidays

 

DS2 had summer to leg out near the end

 

Eternals had an empty month

 

Ant-Man 3 should continue to see these massive drops as there is a big release every single week 

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[RamblinRed]

1 hour ago, GOGODanca said:

Thor 4 had summer holidays

 

DS2 had summer to leg out near the end

 

Eternals had an empty month

 

Ant-Man 3 should continue to see these massive drops as there is a big release every single week 

I think it is going to end up hovering very close to the 2x line ($212.2M). If it gets over it won't be by much.

 

I think it may stabilize a little, but i'm expecting pretty significant drops every week in March.

It's going to take a big hit this weekend with Creed coming out and taking IMAX and PLF.

Next weekend will have Scream - which looks like could be an overperformer.

Then you have Shazam, which I expect to underperform, but it is the most direct competition in terms of audience that AM:Q will face and then finally you have Wick, which is likely to open large and kill off whatever is left of AM:Q. By March 26th I think its run it basically over.