THE SUPER MARIO BROS MOVIE WEEKEND THREAD

[filmscholar]

As for the potential "NCU (Nintendo Cinematic Universe)".   I think "Zelda" can work as an Animated or even Live Action.   It has the whole "LOTR"/"Willow" Vibe.  "Metroid" could work as an awesome Sci-Fi type story especially with a Female Protagonist.    As for Animation, Obviously doing a "Donkey Kong Country" type film would do big numbers too.   Obviously you do a "Mario 2".   I think "Star Fox" has potential as well.   Again Nintendo is literally a gold mind for family audiences.   So I'd definitely fast track a Donkey Kong film, Zelda film and Mario Sequel.   

[Flip]

32 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

 

 

2x as many theaters as Weathering with You, encouraging.

[CaptNathanBrittles]

1 hour ago, ThomasNicole said:

I think Mario will be the single billionaire movie this year 

 

I think GOTG3, Transformers, Elemental, SpiderVerse, Flash, MI7, Fast X, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Indy etc all should do well which is good for theaters, but honestly without China doing some heavylifting i think all of them will ended in the 500-850M range 

 

Adjusted for inflation all previous Indy movies hit $1b without China's help.

 

Not saying Indy 5 will but the series has never been reliant on China.

[Flip]

14 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Super Mario Bros Movie O/U domestic ow 3-day of Minions 1?

Also O/U domestic total of Frozen 2?

Over, under

[Maggie]

2 minutes ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

 

Adjusted for inflation all previous Indy movies hit $1b without China's help.

 

Not saying Indy 5 will but the series has never been reliant on China.

Yeah, i too believe Indy has the biggest chance to reach 1B after Mario. The others, slim to none

Edited April 6, 2023 by Maggie

[Flip]

3 minutes ago, filmscholar said:

As for the potential "NCU (Nintendo Cinematic Universe)".   I think "Zelda" can work as an Animated or even Live Action.   It has the whole "LOTR"/"Willow" Vibe.  "Metroid" could work as an awesome Sci-Fi type story especially with a Female Protagonist.    As for Animation, Obviously doing a "Donkey Kong Country" type film would do big numbers too.   Obviously you do a "Mario 2".   I think "Star Fox" has potential as well.   Again Nintendo is literally a gold mind for family audiences.   So I'd definitely fast track a Donkey Kong film, Zelda film and Mario Sequel.   

Zelda can work, but only without Illumination

[eddyxx]

7 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

They have plenty of characters but they're doing their best to burn themselves out by phase 6.

Oh. I don't mean amount of characters. I meant the type of film. A animated film from marvel would be nice. When the comic book craze started we were getting all sorts of different adaptions like Sin City or 300 or Scott Pilgrim or A History of Violence and now everything is just superhero goobly gook. A animated film would be a nice change of pace as seen by SPIDERVERSE. I also think they should make Blade a straight R rated horror movie. Runaways should've been a movie trilogy aping Stranger Things in kid adventures,  not a generic hulu series.We need more variety in this genre from Marvel Studios.

Edited April 6, 2023 by eddyxx

[CoolioD1]

if it's all animation then universal should let Dreamworks do the Zelda movie. They're not perfect but they will probably at least resist the urge to have Link dance to party rock anthem or whatever

[grey ghost]

1 minute ago, John Marston said:

 

 

Lmao. There are only like 3 humans. And 2 need to be Italian.

[Flip]

2 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

I think Mario will be the single billionaire movie this year 

 

I think GOTG3, Transformers, Elemental, SpiderVerse, Flash, MI7, Fast X, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Indy etc all should do well which is good for theaters, but honestly without China doing some heavylifting i think all of them will ended in the 500-850M range 

Mission Impossible will probably need a big Domestic increase off the back of Top Gun to offset any possible China losses, but I still think it can do over $100m there

[wildphantom]

31 minutes ago, filmscholar said:

As for the potential "NCU (Nintendo Cinematic Universe)".   I think "Zelda" can work as an Animated or even Live Action.   It has the whole "LOTR"/"Willow" Vibe.  "Metroid" could work as an awesome Sci-Fi type story especially with a Female Protagonist.    As for Animation, Obviously doing a "Donkey Kong Country" type film would do big numbers too.   Obviously you do a "Mario 2".   I think "Star Fox" has potential as well.   Again Nintendo is literally a gold mind for family audiences.   So I'd definitely fast track a Donkey Kong film, Zelda film and Mario Sequel.   

can a Zelda story be done in one film though? I’m not sure. Agree it can be animated, but you can’t do Ocarina in two hours. A trilogy, yeah. That would be a first for animation to do that, but it could set a precedent. 

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, superduperm said:

Good OD, but I don’t see the math as to how this gets to $200M five-day. I’m struggling to see how $175M is even possible.

 

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 is the best comparison we have (opened 9 days before Easter instead of 4) and it dropped 42% on Easter Sunday.

 

The only way $200M happens is if this goes Wednesday-to-weekend bonkers like Shrek 2 in 2004 somehow, but I don’t think that’s what will happen. Best-case scenario is Friday-Saturday both manage to have a “4” at the start of their numbers but even then, a 35%+ Sunday drop softens the weekend total to ~$110M.

 

Not saying the numbers we’ve gotten so far aren’t good. They’re great. But I just don’t see the math in a $175M+ five-day. Maybe this will stun me and have a Shrek 2 bounce, idk, but I give that maybe a 5% chance of happening.

 

Right now the range is more than likely $150-$170M. And that’s plenty good from what we expected a few days ago.

My range is lower 

 

I would say $150M-$160M

[Flamengo81]

57 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

Why this would need a Latino character exactly?

 

I swear to God I can't understand some of those appeals for "diversity". Some indeed make sense, but others seems just an effort to creat a controversy and generate buzz.

[DAJK]

1 hour ago, grey ghost said:

 

Lmao. There are only like 3 humans. And 2 need to be Italian.

I don't think... anyone... would call the 90s Mario "groundbreaking" lol

[keysersoze123]

based on presales pattern 50m+ fri/sat are happening. I am thinking at least 185m over 5 days. 

[TheFlatLannister]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

based on presales pattern 50m+ fri/sat are happening. I am thinking at least 185m over 5 days. 

 WTF! 

[DAJK]

I've been following box office since I was 13 and I still never really understood something, if anyone's able to answer this who may have been older than me/following box office back at the time.

 

Twilight opened to 69M in 2008. Then all of a sudden the sequel comes out a year later and more than doubles its opening weekend. Did the franchise really see that much of a spike in popularity over 12 months? Wouldn't book fans have driven up sales of the first film? Kind of like Hunger Games/Catching Fire, there was a bit of a sequel bump there, but nothing like Twilight. And then every subsequent sequel after New Moon performed pretty much on par with New Moon (both domestic and overseas).

 

So, what happened in those 12 months? Why is the original such an outlier box office-wise?

[MovieMan89]

1 hour ago, Eric is Gay for Bowser said:

And this isn't fueled by nostalgic audiences at all? Come on now.

Yes, it has everything. The kids. The teens. The nostalgic adults. That’s my whole point. It’s a bonafide juggernaut in the making with this kind of appeal. 

[DisposedData]

Ant man finally fell below Avatar 

[TheFlatLannister]

1 minute ago, DAJK said:

I've been following box office since I was 13 and I still never really understood something, if anyone's able to answer this who may have been older than me/following box office back at the time.

 

Twilight opened to 69M in 2008. Then all of a sudden the sequel comes out a year later and more than doubles its opening weekend. Did the franchise really see that much of a spike in popularity over 12 months? Wouldn't book fans have driven up sales of the first film? Kind of like Hunger Games/Catching Fire, there was a bit of a sequel bump there, but nothing like Twilight. And then every subsequent sequel after New Moon performed pretty much on par with New Moon (both domestic and overseas).

 

So, what happened in those 12 months? Why is the original such an outlier box office-wise?

Films tend to lead to a larger exposure compared to books which could be seen as niche (especially in the 21st century) 

 

Same reason why I think Across the Spiderverse could blow up big time because back in 2018 only hardcore Marvel/Spidey comic book fans knew who Miles was