Weekdays Thread | April 10 - 13 | Thursday Numbers | 9.87M THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE | 1.04M JOHN WICK IV | 1.02M AIR | 0.96M D&D

[screambaby]

9 minutes ago, Flip said:

Revenge of the Sith or The Rise of Skywalker?

Gonna guess rise of skywalker

[TwoMisfits]

14 minutes ago, Flip said:

Revenge of the Sith or The Rise of Skywalker?

 

Rise - they are huge Star Wars fans, and watched the whole trilogy in theater (they are a little young for the other 2 trilogies, although they've watched them at home:)...they used to watch movies in theaters a lot and then stopped...I guess Mario was as good as Star Wars to get them out again:)...

[grey ghost]

This summer looks bananas. 🍌

 

What will break out? What will flop?

 

After Memorial Day there's a major release every weekend for two months straight.

 

 

 

 

[narniadis]

45 minutes ago, nerves said:

will Mario drop in Tuesday or will stay flat or even increase?

Drop, the flat or increase aspect becomes how small will the drop be. 

If you look at past Easter weekends, the Monday is inflated then Tuesday drops, usually followed by a normal Wednesday (drops over 20%+). 

The dropping has nothing to due with legs or WOM, its normal behavior from holiday(ish) inflated Mondays, such as when we have other Monday holidays. 

[MattW]

Guaranteed drop today. 15m or even a bit less I'd guess.

[Cheddar Please]

2 minutes ago, MattW said:

Guaranteed drop today. 15m or even a bit less I'd guess.

Do you have the data to say that?

[narniadis]

19 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:

Do you have the data to say that?

He isn't one of the trackers. All depends on the historical data. 20-25% off (15-16m) would be a good baseline. Significantly better than Sonic 2 last year, but much higher drop than the more adult skewing Fantastic Beasts

 

I personally think it will end up around the 15m mark myself due to the kiddo skew but 🤷‍♂️

Edited April 12, 2023 by narniadis

[keysersoze123]

Dropping today is a lock. How much I am not sure. It wont be a trivial drop either. 

[cooldude97]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dropping today is a lock. How much I am not sure. It wont be a trivial drop either. 

thinking what 25%-30%?

[keysersoze123]

9 minutes ago, cooldude97 said:

thinking what 25%-30%?

I dont know. its just instinct. It dropped low 40s on a monday. That is like a partial holiday boosted BO. I think multiple provinces in Canada had Monday off(just googled it) and hear few cities/1 state in US has local holiday. 42% of schools are off(here is Cal its spring break). So it has to drop. But family movies have had insane discount tuesday boost in admits. So we have to see. 

 

I cannot predict discount tuesdays data as I am not able to pull in accurate ticket prices. if it were a normal week, tuesdays sell like 75% more tickets but BO is boosted like 30%. Here the boost is just 11% more ticket sales. But that is just 1 chain. It could mean 20% drop or 30%. But I dont know.  You could go with Sonic 2 drop. But that held even better on Monday and this has way bigger BO and should hold better. 

[Brainbug]

4 hours ago, grey ghost said:

This summer looks bananas. 🍌

 

What will break out? What will flop?

 

After Memorial Day there's a major release every weekend for two months straight.

 

 

 

 

 

Its the first "normal" summer since 2019 in terms of the number of big movie releases, so its also a true test to the question if people are willing to go to the theaters in similar numbers to pre-covid times. It will be very interesting for sure to see it unfold.

[DTP]

Damn Mario.  What an absolute pop culture behemoth.

 

I saw the movie over the weekend.  As a huge Mario fan for decades, I was extremely excited to watch it, albeit a bit cautious because of the mixed reviews.  I can see why it got those reviews:  There's certainly not a lot of depth to the story or script, and even some of the humor fell a bit flat.  It's also a weird case where they crammed too much into it and not enough at the same time.  There's still so much they can explore in sequels/spinoffs, given the amount of material they had to work with.  That being said, as most people seem to agree, the movie is just downright fun.  It's both a perfect movie for little kids who just want to see a fun kids movie, and for adults who will revel in the high doses of nostalgia (I got chills when it started). For casual viewers, it's a colorful and feel-good way to pass the time, and sometimes, that's all many people want, especially given everything going on in the world today.  

 

Given that families were starved as PIB2 was the last big animated film in theaters, and the good WOM / re-watch value (I myself can't wait to see it again to discover more easter eggs), I expect this will have good legs even after its monstrous opening.  

 

Highlights:  Jack Black as Bowser (awesome!), the little blue Luma (hilarious!), and Mario and Luigi's dynamic (very touching).  

[grey ghost]

Was Monday's number ever confirmed?

[screambaby]

3 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Was Monday's number ever confirmed?

20.1 monday

[Maggie]

10 hours ago, grey ghost said:

This summer looks bananas. 🍌

 

What will break out? What will flop?

 

After Memorial Day there's a major release every weekend for two months straight.

 

 

 

 

I hope Oppenheimer doesn't flop

[JohnnyGossamer]

30 minutes ago, Maggie said:

I hope Oppenheimer doesn't flop

Hard to imagine it does... What's the last Nolan movie to not breakout? Prestige? I'm not counting Tenet and even that did well enough all things considered with the pandemic WW at the box office.

[Torontofan]

This is grossing 500 million? This will be around 330-340 million by Sunday. 

[Hiccup23]

I am thinking a Tuesday number in the mid $14M for Mario. 

[Spidey Freak]

44 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Hard to imagine it does... What's the last Nolan movie to not breakout? Prestige? I'm not counting Tenet and even that did well enough all things considered with the pandemic WW at the box office.

 

Wasn't Interstellar considered an underwhelming performance compared to Inception though, which helped Nolan arm twist WB into giving back his late July spot?

[Maggie]

1 minute ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

Wasn't Interstellar considered an underwhelming performance compared to Inception though, which helped Nolan arm twist WB into giving back his late July spot?

And it worked. Dunkirk made more than Interstellar which to me is a huge surprise