Weekend Thread | May 12 - 14 | Weekend Actuals | 62.01M GOTG III | 12.61M MARIO | 6.68M BOOK CLUB: THE NEXT CHAPTER

[titanic2187]

Just now, stripe said:

 

Purchase for $20-25 is still cheaper than go to a theater with all family. As I said, it's not just that this can affect SMB legs. It's the message you send to audience of future family films that are not juggernaut tentpoles like SMB or Minions.

Yes, I do agree that Minion2 and PIB2 proved that digital release didn't affect legs or whatsoever but that was when the market was truly empty with family-friendly movie. We still haven't tested them in the situation when abundant of choices are around. Moreover, the early digital release probably won't cut the leg but they surely cut the gross from the beginning, the OW itself. The year-to-date aggregate gross is still below that of 2019 and 2018 is a proof the streaming is cutting box office directly from the start of the run. 

 

[JohnnyGossamer]

8 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

Purchase for $20-25 is still cheaper than go to a theater with all family. As I said, it's not just that this can affect SMB legs. It's the message you send to audience of future family films that are not juggernaut tentpoles like SMB or Minions.

Depending on family size, if seen during a matinee or cheap Tuesday with a family of four... It's same or less to see it in a theater in Pittsburgh. So, no. Disagree. And, someone just mentioned that it's actually $30. If it's $30, actually family of 5 matinee is cheaper still. And, again, this had little to no impact on Rise of Gru and Puss and Boots. We already have that data to fall back on. It will have little to no impact.

Edited May 15, 2023 by JohnnyGossamer

[stripe]

7 minutes ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

Isn't AIR more of a Glass Onion scenario where the owner genuinely bought it to be a streaming focused product?  

 

Didnt know that!

[Krissykins]

Watched “Air” on prime on Friday and still have no idea how the budget was so high. Must’ve been salaries. 

[stripe]

4 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Depending on family size, if seen during a matinee or cheap Tuesday with a family of four... It's same or less to see it in a theater in Pittsburgh. So, no. Disagree. And, someone just mentioned that it's actually $30. If it's $30, actually family of 5 matinee is cheaper still. And, again, this had little to no impact on Rise of Gru and Puss and Boots. We already have that data to fall back on. It will have little to no impact.

Hope you are right. Anyways, I think it would be healthier for the industry to give movies a longer exclusive life in theaters.
And I really dislike that this strategy seems to focus just on animated films. They deserve more respect

[Mr Roark]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

So if Jat thinks $400M can happen that means $1B is in play? Or would DOM have to be something like $425M? 

Well Fast is stronger OS so personally I don’t see Guardians being able to keep the current 40/60 split til the end of the run so it would need slightly more than $400M DOM.

Anyway it will lose tons of PLF and IMAX, Fast X tomorrow will already land in China.

To hit that milestone it would need almost unprecedented legs for a CBF especially with this competition…

 

[JohnnyGossamer]

1 minute ago, stripe said:

Hope you are right. Anyways, I think it would be healthier for the industry to give movies a longer exclusive life in theaters.
And I really dislike that this strategy seems to focus just on animated films. They deserve more respect

I mean, yeah, I prefer they waited at least another few weeks too. I just don't think it'll impact the box office much. It's already down to 13M weekend with Fast X coming then Little Mermaid directly after... I don't think this stuff impacts later legs much.

[JustWatching]

15 minutes ago, druv10 said:

Hopefully weekend number goes up to 62.53M.

 

HR going with 62.6

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/guardians-galaxy-box-office-book-club-1235487301/

[druv10]

2 minutes ago, JustWatching said:

 

HR going with 62.6

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/guardians-galaxy-box-office-book-club-1235487301/

Yes, 2nd best 2nd weekend hold ever for MCU. Just squeaking by original Thor

1. BP1 -44.7%
2. GOTG3 -47.1% (Projected by Disney)
3. Thor1 -47.2%
4. DS1 -49.5%
5. IM1 -49.9%
6. TA1 -50.3%

 

[ThomasNicole]

4 minutes ago, Mr Roark said:

Well Fast is stronger OS so personally I don’t see Guardians being able to keep the current 40/60 split til the end of the run so it would need slightly more than $400M DOM.

Anyway it will lose tons of PLF and IMAX, Fast X tomorrow will already land in China.

To hit that milestone it would need almost unprecedented legs for a CBF especially with this competition…

 

If China didn’t pick up i would say Guardians will ended up higher OS than Fast X

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[wildphantom]

11 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I mean, yeah, I prefer they waited at least another few weeks too. I just don't think it'll impact the box office much. It's already down to 13M weekend with Fast X coming then Little Mermaid directly after... I don't think this stuff impacts later legs much.

plus the studios had always wanted to reduce the window as they wouldn’t have to spend as much on re-marketing months down the line.

 

I’ve been massively critical of the likes of Disney for straight to free streaming after a 6 week or so window. But 6-7 weeks for PVOD is a totally different ball game. 

 

[Mojoguy]

2 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

 

Top Gun Maverick had a longer free for streaming window than Avatar 2. The POWER of Tom Cruise.

[Mr Roark]

13 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

If China didn’t pick up i would say Guardians will ended up higher OS than Fast X

Yes. 

 

[wildphantom]

3 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

 

10 weeks after PVOD. Much better. 
Wish they’d done the same with Ant-Man, which only had four weeks on PVOD before Disney+

[DAJK]

Weekday presales for Guardians in Canada are NUTS. This thing is about to have another strong set of weekdays. Canada also has a 4-day weekend which will help with the drop, even if only slightly.

 

Hold on to your butts, folks.

[Mr Roark]

3 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Top Gun Maverick had a longer free for streaming window than Avatar 2. The POWER of Tom Cruise.

Its not about the power of Cruise it’s about Mav having better late legs DOM.

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, wildphantom said:

10 weeks after PVOD. Much better. 
Wish they’d done the same with Ant-Man, which only had four weeks on PVOD before Disney+

Avatar is consistently in top 3 on PVOD platforms since the release, most of them at #1 spot, it was profiting too much to cut it 

 

Quantumania did fine for 2 weeks and then freefall, that’s probably why 

[wildphantom]

19 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Avatar is consistently in top 3 on PVOD platforms since the release, most of them at #1 spot, it was profiting too much to cut it 

 

Quantumania did fine for 2 weeks and then freefall, that’s probably why 

Could be right.  We’re still to see a consistent pattern from Disney but it’s sort of beginning to form and way better than it used to be. 
 

Elemental is the biggest test for me as where they’re at right now in terms of their family audience coming out for a summer animated event movie.  

Edited May 15, 2023 by wildphantom

[stripe]

36 minutes ago, JustWatching said:

 

HR going with 62.6

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/guardians-galaxy-box-office-book-club-1235487301/

 

Huge! Some have already pointed these achievements, but it is great to see them together 

 

Over AMQ domestic total in just 10 days despite only opening 12M more

2nd best second weekend hold for an MCU film

9th best 2nd weekend drop for a 100M+ opener
Over MoM 2nd weekend gross