THE LITTLE MERMAID WEEKEND THREAD

[TalismanRing]

4 minutes ago, XXR Anti-Hero said:

Maybe I'm missing something but why would TLM reach 120-130 off a 38M full Friday? WOM is good but even Aladdin ratios only get it to 114.

 

They have it at $105 for the 3 day and $120-130 for the 4 day - both of which would be off Aladdin's pace - especially the $120 4 day

[cookie]

2 minutes ago, XXR Anti-Hero said:

 

I know. That's what I'm talking about. 

But wouldn't Aladdin multi from full Friday get it to 140?

Edited May 27, 2023 by cookie

[M37]

2 minutes ago, XXR Anti-Hero said:

Maybe I'm missing something but why would TLM reach 120-130 off a 38M full Friday? WOM is good but even Aladdin ratios only get it to 114.

I believe that's the 4-day total. Aladdin was $31.4 Fri/$116.8M 4-day. Using the same day/day changes gets to $135M (27.7/34.2/34.3/28.8)

[ZattMurdock]

14 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

SATURDAY AM: Disney’s The Little Mermaid is staying on its great course, maintaining that $38M Friday (which includes previews) for what is shaping up to be an estimated $104M 3-day and a 4-day between $120M-$130M. At that upper part of that threshold, the pic is the third best opening for a movie over Memorial Day weekend

 

Audience exits are great with an A CinemaScore (same grade as Disney’s live-action Cinderella, Beauty and the Beast, Aladdin and The Lion King). Screen Engine/Comscore’s PostTrak notched 91% positive and a 76% definite recommend while kids under 12 were over the moon at 92% positive and a 69% definite recommend. Natch, heavy female leaning at 68% with 61% between 18-34 and the largest demo being 25-34 year olds at 35%. Diversity demos strong across the board with 35% Black, 25% Latino and Hispanic, 26% Caucasian and 11% Asian.

That’s awesome. You go, Ariel. 

[TwoMisfits]

15 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

SATURDAY AM: Disney’s The Little Mermaid is staying on its great course, maintaining that $38M Friday (which includes previews) for what is shaping up to be an estimated $104M 3-day and a 4-day between $120M-$130M. At that upper part of that threshold, the pic is the third best opening for a movie over Memorial Day weekend

 

Audience exits are great with an A CinemaScore (same grade as Disney’s live-action Cinderella, Beauty and the Beast, Aladdin and The Lion King). Screen Engine/Comscore’s PostTrak notched 91% positive and a 76% definite recommend while kids under 12 were over the moon at 92% positive and a 69% definite recommend. Natch, heavy female leaning at 68% with 61% between 18-34 and the largest demo being 25-34 year olds at 35%. Diversity demos strong across the board with 35% Black, 25% Latino and Hispanic, 26% Caucasian and 11% Asian.

 

From Deadline - "Final Disney reported demos: 60% females, 40% guys with 74% business in 2D." for Beauty and the Beast's live action..."Females at 59% are driving business" for Aladdin...

 

68-32 for Mermaid means this is practically the 2 demo movie I saw it being...wild skew, much more than previous Disney classic live action.  The ethnic skew is less wild than the female demo skew and this seems to be playing like a giant Woman King vs a regular Disney blockbuster as we know it...

 

Legs should be very interesting to track...

Edited May 27, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[kayumanggi]

Can GOTG III outgross FAST X this weekend?

[XXR & Friends]

3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

They have it at $105 for the 3 day and $120-130 for the 4 day - both of which would be off Aladdin's pace - especially the $120 4 day

 

3 minutes ago, cookie said:

But wouldn't Aladdin multi from full Friday get it to 140?

 

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

I believe that's the 4-day total. Aladdin was $31.4 Fri/$116.8M 4-day. Using the same day/day changes gets to $135M (27.7/34.2/34.3/28.8)

 

My fault gang! I was looking at "The-Numbers" and they break out previews but still add the previews numbers back into Friday (which seems dumb to me if you're gonna separate them out in the first place).

 

Carry on! 130 here we come  

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

Can GOTG III outgross FAST X this weekend?

 

It could but probably $3-4m behind

[kayumanggi]

That's just a 36.09% drop for GOTG III from last Friday, by the way.

Edited May 27, 2023 by kayumanggi

[Issac Newton]

6

N

About My Father

Lionsgate

$1,460,000

[keysersoze123]

Deadline was totally on point for Mermaid. I think big openers are easiest to extrapolate. Mermaid is skewing MTC and big cities. Presales at MTC1 is flat compared to yesterday(sold around 9% more tickets at lower rate). Walkups will be better and ATP will be lower. We have to see how much it will increase today. 

Weird RTH was so far off for FX. Still awful drop. Great for Guardians. 

[filmlover]

7 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

From Deadline - "Final Disney reported demos: 60% females, 40% guys with 74% business in 2D." for Beauty and the Beast's live action..."Females at 59% are driving business" for Aladdin...

 

68-32 for Mermaid means this is practically the 2 demo movie I saw it being...wild skew, much more than previous Disney classic live action.  The ethnic skew is less wild than the female demo skew and this seems to be playing like a giant Woman King vs a regular Disney blockbuster as we know it...

 

Legs should be very interesting to track...

Nothing overly surprising here considering the OG Mermaid is likely widely viewed as arguably the most "girly" of Disney's Big Four. 

[M37]

3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

68-32 for Mermaid means this is practically the 2 demo movie I saw it being...wild skew, much more than previous Disney classic live action.  The ethnic skew is less wild than the female demo skew and this seems to be playing like a giant Woman King vs a regular Disney blockbuster as we know it...

 

Legs should be very interesting to track...

I'm not overly optimistic tbh, seems like a good number of people have already crossed this film off the potential list, so the pool from which to draw down the line is smaller and not likely to be expanded no matter how good the WOM.

 

Matching Aladdin's $355M, even from a better OW start, might be too much to ask. Thinking more like $330-$340M for now

[Joyous Legion]

7 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

Can GOTG III outgross FAST X this weekend?

Bit of a weak fri for guardians so seems unlikely. Better chance on the 4day than the 3day.   

[WorkingonaName]

Sub $600M has entered the chat

[John Marston]

Why would TLM play like Aladdin over the weekend when it was already more frontloaded from previews? 

[M37]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Deadline was totally on point for Mermaid. I think big openers are easiest to extrapolate. Mermaid is skewing MTC and big cities. Presales at MTC1 is flat compared to yesterday(sold around 9% more tickets at lower rate). Walkups will be better and ATP will be lower. We have to see how much it will increase today. 

Weird RTH was so far off for FX. Still awful drop. Great for Guardians. 

They tend to miss more on the big openers that are blowing up, because they use a basic range for extrapolation from mid-day sales (think Venom 2, Mario, etc)

 

Like I expect their Friday to be low on SV next week 😉

[Issac Newton]

3 minutes ago, Legions of the Galaxy said:

Bit of a weak fri for guardians so doesn't only seems unlikely but impossible    

[M37]

1 minute ago, John Marston said:

Why would TLM play like Aladdin over the weekend when it was already more frontloaded from previews? 

It should be close to Aladdin's daily trajectory, but probably a bit more True Friday heavy, so like +18-20% Sat rather than +23%. But was using that match as more of the best case outcome, before adjusting down from it

[TwoMisfits]

For my own records, my Cinemarks expanded Mermaid to 5 screens (24 showings) and 4 screens (16 showings) this weekend from the presales.  I just want to post this, so I have a mental memory when I see how Spidey gets expanded this week (b/c it started very low at my Cinemarks - 12 and 9 showings, which was slightly under Mermaid's initial sets).