Weekend Thread | Transformers $25.6M FRI

[reddevil19]

5 minutes ago, Claudio said:

GotG3 just released 5 weeks ago and it still became a hit bro…. And will finish above SV WW.

Could be close domestically as well, depending on the next couple of weeks...

GOTG3 is a perfect example though - pre-release hype was nowhere near the peak of the MCU, presales seemed weak (relatively), OW was OK but not amazing, it's as separate a story from the MCU overarching plot as possible, but it clicked with audiences. They didn't just go "nah, pass, there's a Spider-Man movie in a month".

[MightyDargon]

Shang-Chi did NOT release close to No Way Home. It came out in September! No Way Home was in December!

[Bobzaruni]

2 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Could be close domestically as well, depending on the next couple of weeks...

GOTG3 is a perfect example though - pre-release hype was nowhere near the peak of the MCU, presales seemed weak (relatively), OW was OK but not amazing, it's as separate a story from the MCU overarching plot as possible, but it clicked with audiences. They didn't just go "nah, pass, there's a Spider-Man movie in a month".

It's not gonna be close domestically

[Cooper Legion]

3 minutes ago, Bobzaruni said:

It's not gonna be close domestically

Could easily be within 10% not sure exactly how you want to define “close”

[reddevil19]

1 minute ago, Into the Legion-Verse said:

Could easily be within 10% not sure exactly how you want to define “close”

Ya, I think 20-30 million difference could happen. Again, this weekend isn't looking AMAZING for Spider-Verse but the weekdays could very well more than make up for it. That's why I said depending on the next couple of weeks it could be close (the range I mentioned).

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

3 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Ya, I think 20-30 million difference could happen. Again, this weekend isn't looking AMAZING for Spider-Verse but the weekdays could very well more than make up for it. That's why I said depending on the next couple of weeks it could be close (the range I mentioned).

Hopefully it has some strong weekdays this week now that the competition and loss of PLFs from Transformers has been 'baked in'. Next weekend might be brutal though, Elemental and The Flash will take away more screens and a lot of audience overlap.

[MightyDargon]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

Hopefully it has some strong weekdays this week now that the competition and loss of PLFs from Transformers has been 'baked in'. Next weekend might be brutal though, Elemental and The Flash will take away more screens and a lot of audience overlap.

The Flash maybe but nobody cares about Elemental.

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

15 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

The Flash maybe but nobody cares about Elemental.

Elemental will probably bomb yeah, but it's still gonna open to around $30-50m and take screens and family audiences away from ATSV, it's not something you can completely ignore when the audience overlap is so large. Conversely if an R18 slasher tracking for a $40m OW opened in its place that would have a much smaller effect. Flash + Elemental combined is like a single $100m+ opener opening this weekend, you can't say it won't have an impact.

Edited June 11, 2023 by IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son

[TwoMisfits]

35 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Ya, I think 20-30 million difference could happen. Again, this weekend isn't looking AMAZING for Spider-Verse but the weekdays could very well more than make up for it. That's why I said depending on the next couple of weeks it could be close (the range I mentioned).

 

This coming week, GOTG 3 did $19.7M for M-Th, so Spidey should hopefully continue to top the weekdays but probably lose the weekends (last week, Spidey made $16Mish more on the M-Th weekdays, but looks about $6-7M less for the weekend for +10Mish for the week)...with $400M still very doable...

Edited June 11, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[JohnnyGossamer]

48 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

The Flash maybe but nobody cares about Elemental.

There's a middle ground here... If Flash and Pixar releases were as anticipated as DCEU releases were a few years ago, it would've been absolutely brutal. That said, even now, Flash has direct overlap with superhero and even more specifically multiverse. Elemental has direct overlap with kids and families due to it be animation. Even if Flash does 65M and Elemental does 25M, it's still a hit to Spidey. That's the absolute catastrophically lowest I can imagine either. They'll both do probably 10M~ more than that. But, that's 100M+ DOM between the two with each having a direct audience overlap. If Spidey has any PLFs still they're absolutely all gone by Thursday afternoon too. Flash and Elemental will have them all. 

 

Long story short, due to Flash and Elemental, I expect AtSV to drop 50%+ next weekend too. Then, it should stabilize pretty well the rest of its run and get a nice bump around July 4.

Edited June 11, 2023 by JohnnyGossamer

[Cooper Legion]

56 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

The Flash maybe but nobody cares about Elemental.

I mean it’s not even clear Flash will open 50% over Elemental. Like 40 vs 58 would be perfectly reasonable. Even if it comes up low for elemental and high for flash for more of a 25/75 scenario Elemntal will be much closer in the amount of screens taken, just with worse PSA. The blackening will come to squeeze screens a little as well.  
 

That said there are a good amount of screens to give up from Machine, About my Father, Fast X, Mario, Boogeyman, Mermaid etc

Edited June 11, 2023 by Into the Legion-Verse

[M37]

First, let me add to the chorus and say that Across the Spider-Verse is AMAZING and everyone should go watch it [we might even go watch it again today]

 

As for that weaker Saturday bump ... my concern with legs/reaching $400M, despite the great WOM, was how much weaker it played outside of bigger metros for OW, and whether it could bring GA folks in off the fence. Like there are some adults who are a hard no for any animated picture - "its a cartoon!" - and bridging that gap, expanding the audience, is an uphill climb. Its just a lot easier to open with a GA friendly crowd and later pull in frequent moviegoers who may have initially passed (see TGM, Puss, Crawdads, etc), than for WOM to flow in the opposite direction

 

From an ~$80M second week/$250M total, will need to have a run of roughly -35% holds going forward to put $400M on the table, but starting from a -45% Sat/Sat (though with PLF loss) makes that seem dicey. Thinking $380-$390M finish for now (yet another title falling just short of a threshold!), but still room to grow higher

[Willowra]

1 hour ago, reddevil19 said:

Nah man. I get the argument of interest in one property and lack of interest in the other but your overall argument makes no sense. People didn't give much of a shit about SC, BW, Eternals (partly because return to cinemas wasn't yet 100%) because they just didn't click. Having an Avengers film instead of NWH would have done fuck all for those movies. The only way your argument makes sense is if an Avengers movie setting up those characters came first, to raise their profile. But we already saw how Marvel did it in phase 1 - good but not amazing returns for the introductory films, bring them together later for big bucks. 

 

It's similar with Spider-Verse now. That movie is floating on a lot of love for the first movie, as well as the MCU version. Even so, Flash, Indiana Jones and Transformers could do similar numbers to it if people cared. And people don't care about them not because of Spider-Man being too big, but because they're genuinely not interesting on the same level. Flash is part of a dead franchise, with an endless number of bad movies preceding it, with a long and troubled production that ensured any enthusiasm died a long time ago, Indy already had a nostalgic sequel but it was badly received to the point it poisoned this movie, and Transformers has been declining for the last 3 movies (and still ended up opening better than a lot expected). And don't even get me started on a Matrix movie no one wanted (not even the creators), part of a franchise where only the first movie was well liked, with the third dropping massively at the vox office and with a home release same day.

 

None of this is on Spider-Man alone. It's a very big whale in a sea populated by clown fish, not some kind of box office black hole.

SM wasn't the biggest thing in the MCU in the Infinite Saga. The void left by Tony and then their ignoring of the Avengers franchise made him the biggest thing in the Marvel universe. But this hyper-interest in SM movies doesn't help other MCU movies, as other MCU heroes don't appear in SM movies. If they had released an Avengers movie instead of NWH, it would have helped SC and Eternals box office, as they would have appeared in the Avengers trailer just like Black Panther and Captain Marvel. Disney, WB, and Paramount are actually very lucky that Sony has released just an animated SM movie; if they had released a live-action movie, then TLM, Transformers, and The Flash wouldn't have been seen anywhere at the box office, and their fate would have been similar to that of Matrix.

[Eric Prime]

3 hours ago, Eric Prime said:

It is Pride Month when you think about it 🤔 

 

[Willowra]

2 hours ago, Claudio said:

GotG3 just released 5 weeks ago and it still became a hit bro…. And will finish above SV WW.

GOTG3 isn't just a normal MCU movie; it's a beloved and well-established franchise of the Infinity Saga. In fact, if we exclude FFH, which obviously benefited from Endgame, the GOTG franchise was as big as the SM franchise in Infinity Saga, and even if we include FFH, the GOTG franchise was as big as SM domestically. So an animated SM movie which is not even a MCU movie can't drag down a beloved franchise like GOTG

Edited June 11, 2023 by Willowra

[M37]

27 minutes ago, Into the Legion-Verse said:

Elemntal will be much closer in the amount of screens taken, just with worse PSA.

There’s a 3D push for Elemental, so most of the 12 screen+ plus locations are going to give it 1.5-3 screens to accommodate that. And with Flash still being somewhat overestimated by trades, will likely be over-allocated in screens, probably 1-2 more per location than TF got this weekend 

 

Plus Disney will insist on GOTG3 playing (at least) half a screen, along with Fast X, TLM, ATSV, TF, a few shows of Boogeyman and SMB (edit forgot about that one!), then Blackening and the other smaller releases. Going to be very cramped, as every studio wants their films to be in good position to ride the double holiday weekend wave (with not much coming next weekend either to displace them)

Edited June 11, 2023 by M37

[Cooper Legion]

I suspect Fast is in for a proper gutting

[Starphanluke]

Very interested to see where estimates fall. Based on past antics, I fully expect Paramount to announce $60m, even if Transformers falls a little short of it in actuals.

[M37]

10 minutes ago, Into the Legion-Verse said:

I suspect Fast is in for a proper gutting

That's definitely on the cut line, but still going to have a PTA close to $2000, will lose some shows and screens, but I wouldn't think all that much. Theaters often preemptively pull one family movie when another releases, so Universal might let SMB die in favor of Fast X. Market can usually support 7-9 titles in 2K+ locations depending on how top heavy it is, think Fast X makes that cut, but below Boogeyman and GOTG3. Disney is going to have 4 of top 6 titles, so they may have to let Boogeyman (under Fox umbrella) take the beating in favor of the others

[MightyDargon]

It really does seem like Elemental has zero hype though. Most people aren't even bothering tracking it.