Weekend Thread | Transformers $25.6M FRI

[ZattMurdock]

Avengers: Endgame was such an absurd event. I remember attending the midnight premiere, crying my eyes out and then heading to an open bar party crowded as fuck full of people with cosplays and regular party clothes and when we got there, a funk remix of the Avengers theme started playing and people went nuts over it. Such an wild, crazy experience. 
 

 

[Cooper Legion]

No one has star power. Comedies are dead. 10 sounds perfectly reasonable to me (not to say it can't go higher, just ballpark)

[Eric Prime]

32 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Lmao you fool. Original movies in general are dead. Not just animation.

I kept telling people this, but people got mad at me every time I said it. I know the truth hurts, but it has to be said sometimes.

[Mojoguy]

16 minutes ago, PenguinHyphy said:

 

The Flash is supposed to be the story, but the Jennifer Lawrence opening to $10,000,000 is astonishing. The trailers are absolutely insufferable, but isn't star power supposed to be a thing still? 

JLaw's problem was Hollywood pushed her too hard and too fast that the audience got tired and sick of her. Not her fault, but it's better for an actor to start small and work their way to stardom. JLaw is going to be trying to make her big comeback for the next decade.

[ringedmortality]

10 minutes ago, Eric Prime said:

I kept telling people this, but people got mad at me every time I said it. I know the truth hurts, but it has to be said sometimes.

 

iirc they just got annoyed you called Top Gun a nostalgic toy commercial 

[Eric Prime]

5 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

 

iirc they just got annoyed you called Top Gun a nostalgic toy commercial 

That's because it is lol

[vinny2487]

So... are movie goers finally tapped out from the May/early June releases? 

[ringedmortality]

2 minutes ago, Eric Prime said:

That's because it is lol

Okay

[Bob Train]

Oppenheimer, Wish, and Migration are probably the only original 100m+ DOM grossers this year although something else could break out. Last year we only had Nope so maybe this is an improvement, although IDK if Bullet Train and Smile should be considered original. They seem like gray area.

[cooldude97]

"more animated adaptations that will most likely be better than if it was live-action " Oh how terrible 

[Bob Train]

1 hour ago, Mulder said:

Rise of The Beasts was trending upwards at this point in time. We were seeing shifts in its performance that indicated last minute interest and then the Thursday of we were seeing those walk-ups in action. Before the weekend everyone was pretty set on it opening in the 50s being a genuine possibility, and then it overperformed by 5-6 million. Let's say Flash does that, if we're thinking 65 that only puts it in 70/71. If we're thinking 70/71 that puts its in 75/76. If we're thinking 75 that puts it in 80/81. None of these numbers are good, just various degrees of bad and that's just ignoring how the tracking is not suggesting this.

Why would 80m be "bad" for Flash if 90m was "good" for The Little Mermaid, despite Flash having a budget 60m lower?

[misterpepp]

Don't Disney live-action family remakes tend to leg out better than comic book-based superhero movies? I would think a $90m opening for TLM would be a better sign for totals than $80m for Flash.

[GOGODanca]

7 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Why would 80m be "bad" for Flash if 90m was "good" for The Little Mermaid, despite Flash having a budget 60m lower?

tlm is a family film, in most cases its gonna leg out stronger than the flash (barring some insane audience reception)

[Bob Train]

7 minutes ago, datpepper said:

Don't Disney live-action family remakes tend to leg out better than comic book-based superhero movies? I would think a $90m opening for TLM would be a better sign for totals than $80m for Flash.

True but again, Flash has a lower budget, and I'd imagine it could play better internationally

[Mulder]

17 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Why would 80m be "bad" for Flash if 90m was "good" for The Little Mermaid, despite Flash having a budget 60m lower?

First of all that 190 budget is absolutely not true as said many times, but besides that TLM opened to 100 something million over memorial day first of all you can't just cut off the fourth day in a 4 day weekend. And beyond that going by the legs of DC movies (Minus Aquaman because of holiday weekdays, and the D&D WW84 and TSS) an 80 OW would only get it to-

 

WW 2017-320 (This is a bad comp since Wonder Woman has some of the all time best legs for a CBM...which is unlikely)
JL 2017 legs-198

Shazam 1 legs-212
BoP legs-204
The Batman legs-220
Black Adam legs-201

Shazam 2 legs-152

 

None of these are great final totals besides the incredibly unlikely universe where it would somehow get Wonder Woman 2017 legs.

 

EDIT: Not to mention just the optics of opening below JL 2017.

 

Edited June 13, 2023 by Mulder

[Ledmonkey96]

hmmmm do we have any idea what the Flash's 4-day is projected at since the 19th is a holiday now?

[Bob Train]

8 minutes ago, Mulder said:

First of all that 190 budget is absolutely not true as said many times, but besides that TLM opened to 100 something million over memorial day first of all you can't just cut off the fourth day in a 4 day weekend. And beyond that going by the legs of DC movies (Minus Aquaman because of holiday weekdays, and the D&D WW84 and TSS) an 80 OW would only get it to-

 

WW 2017-320 (This is a bad comp since Wonder Woman has some of the all time best legs for a CBM...which is unlikely)
JL 2017 legs-198

Shazam 1 legs-212
BoP legs-204
The Batman legs-220
Black Adam legs-201

Shazam 2 legs-152

 

None of these are great final totals besides the incredibly unlikely universe where it would somehow get Wonder Woman 2017 legs.

 

EDIT: Not to mention just the optics of opening below JL 2017.

 

You aren't factoring in international numbers. With 220m domestically it could get past the 475m worldwide mark with 255m internationally, which I see as perfectly doable way to get 2.5x the budget. The same DOM/INT split of Guardians would get it to 220/300/520 worldwide, which would be good.

 

And in regards to the "aktually the budget is harder because xyz" conversation, I don't bother with that nonsense. There is no way of knowing the actual budget. It's best to just go with whatever the studio tells the trades, which is as of right now 190m.

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, Bob Train said:

You aren't factoring in international numbers. With 220m domestically it could get past the 475m worldwide mark with 255m internationally, which I see as perfectly doable way to get 2.5x the budget. The same DOM/INT split of Guardians would get it to 220/300/520 worldwide, which would be good.

 

And in regards to the "aktually the budget is harder because xyz" conversation, I don't bother with that nonsense. There is no way of knowing the actual budget. It's best to just go with whatever the studio tells the trades, which is as of right now 190m.

220 is with The Batman level of WOM which is...unlikely. I won't get into the budget debate with you again but if you think the budget is only 190 million, then I have a bridge to sell you.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

11 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

hmmmm do we have any idea what the Flash's 4-day is projected at since the 19th is a holiday now?

70-85

[Ledmonkey96]

I don't see how The Flash gets to 220mil Dom off an 80mil OW, especially not when it's a 4-day weekend (lets say 95mil for the 4-day which is generous) even matching Black Adams legs only gets it to around 200mil dom and 470mil WW. And again that'd be best case scenario if it's a good enough crowd pleaser which it doesn't seem like it will be, at least not as much as Black adam