Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.

[GambitPool]

20 minutes ago, Shawn said:

$9.7M official Flash previews

[Legion Again]

5 minutes ago, XXRkham Asylum said:

I feel like KFP as an IP has built up a lot of love since the last one came out. I mean, I wouldn’t be surprised with 70M but also not surprised with 110M.
 

Mufasa doesn’t worry me. I know the 2019 version isn’t beloved but it’s still the Lion King, it’s still the summer, and Mufasa is the most popular character. JEJ will not be denied.

 

Thunderbolts I think they’ll make it a big enough crossover + holidays to get it done. 

I feel like the most popular character is… Simba. But my biggest concern is that it’s an original spin-off prequel, not a close adaptation of a beloved Renaissance movie. Dropping off hard seems quite possible so I would just put it in potential.   
 

I do think that they’re got some tricks up their sleeve for thunderbolts in terms of draw and hopefully good movies have restored good will by then but xmas holidays is a detriment to the OW, not an aid!

Edited June 16, 2023 by Into the Legion-Verse

[AJG]

19 minutes ago, Shawn said:

$9.7M official Flash previews

 

3 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Elemental official $2.4M

Deadline Anthony’s write up is gonna be one for the history books. 
 

A truly unhinged amount of spin for The Flash number. A long and completely unsourced rant blaming the streaming devil for Elemental. I’m so excited.

[Dragoncaine]

Wait a minute, the PostTrak exits are so bad

 

Early audience PostTrak exits from Comscore/Screen Engine for The Flash shows 4 stars for general audiences and a 60% recommend and 3 1/2 for kids under 12 and 57% recommend. Remember Thursday night due to fans always has better, skewed exits.

 

Possible B CS incoming?!

Edited June 16, 2023 by Dragoncaine

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

1 minute ago, Dragoncaine said:

Wait a minute, the PostTrak exits are so bad

 

Early audience PostTrak exits from Comscore/Screen Engine for The Flash shows 4 stars for general audiences and a 60% recommend and 3 1/2 for kids under 12 and 57% recommend. Remember Thursday night due to fans always has better, skewed exits.

 

Possible B CS incoming?!

No holiday next weekend, I look forward to the meltdown when this drops 65% after an already turgid OW

[stripe]

So tracking thread was correct with both previews.

 

Crossing fingers Elemental can recover and gain some muscle through the weekend.

[ThomasNicole]

Theoretically it can still ended up with 70M, but I doubt it. 
 

At 87% verified score on RT, unless there’s been some kind of attacks, this is on the verge of a B+ on CS, A- at best

 

So yeah idk about WOM

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, Into the Legion-Verse said:

I feel like the most popular character is… Simba. But my biggest concern is that it’s an original spin-off prequel, not a close adaptation of a beloved Renaissance movie. Dropping off hard seems quite possible so I would just put it in potential.   
 

I do think that they’re got some tricks up their sleeve for thunderbolts in terms of draw and hopefully good movies have restored good will by then but xmas holidays is a detriment to the OW, not an aid!

Simba is trash. Mufasa the GOAT. 
 

But nah, it’s gonna drop of course but even a 50% drop in ticket sales should still get it over 100M (TLK adjusts to ~220 right now). My current expectation is around 110-120.

[ThomasNicole]

2 minutes ago, Dragoncaine said:

Wait a minute, the PostTrak exits are so bad

 

Early audience PostTrak exits from Comscore/Screen Engine for The Flash shows 4 stars for general audiences and a 60% recommend and 3 1/2 for kids under 12 and 57% recommend. Remember Thursday night due to fans always has better, skewed exits.

 

Possible B CS incoming?!

Lol is even worse than what i was thinking 

 

Yeah I’ll be surprised with anything better than B+ for this

[YM!]

15 minutes ago, XXRkham Asylum said:

I assume you mean Cap 4 and Thunderbolts. I think you’re underestimating the strength of the MCU. One will have the summer and the other the winter holidays. We’ve had 6 straight MCU films over $100M and the 3 that missed before that had extenuating circumstances related to COVID and being brand new characters.

I think both will be movies that work on legs rather than OW. What’s Thunderbolts hook aside from the Marvel brand and I think Winter Soldier numbers especially with a new Cap even with all the Hulk stuff is more comparable for Brave New World. The audience is definitely getting more pick and choosy with Marvel stuff especially when I think these two are more likely to play as new Marvel stuff instead of sequels.

[Menor the Destroyer]

14 minutes ago, Into the Legion-Verse said:

🧐

I was thinking about this a little bit franchise history of 60 40 40 is… eh

 

The only expecteds that make me nervous are Mufasa and Thunderbolts

I would not even put Mufasa under expected, I don't think it gets to 100m at all. Feels like a movie with little demand unless it's very very good. 

[ringedmortality]

Oh wait I got the next 100DOM opener: Dune

[Deep Wang]

Just now, stripe said:

So tracking thread was correct with both previews.

 

 

I don't know how they do that voodoo, but it was very cute watching people coming into their world and telling them they were wrong lmao

[Veclozy]

Once again:

[YM!]

With what I’ve seen from the KFP4 trailer leaks, I think a Dragon 3 run would be great for it.

[THUNDER BIRD]

4 minutes ago, Dragoncaine said:

Wait a minute, the PostTrak exits are so bad

 

Early audience PostTrak exits from Comscore/Screen Engine for The Flash shows 4 stars for general audiences and a 60% recommend and 3 1/2 for kids under 12 and 57% recommend. Remember Thursday night due to fans always has better, skewed exits.

 

Possible B CS incoming?!

59 OW back on the Menu..... Lfg

Edited June 16, 2023 by THUNDER BIRD

[John Marston]

4 minutes ago, Dragoncaine said:

Wait a minute, the PostTrak exits are so bad

 

Early audience PostTrak exits from Comscore/Screen Engine for The Flash shows 4 stars for general audiences and a 60% recommend and 3 1/2 for kids under 12 and 57% recommend. Remember Thursday night due to fans always has better, skewed exits.

 

Possible B CS incoming?!

 

not only is this flopping but audience reaction does not look that good

 

 

I think  Muschietti will be leaving Brave and the Bold due to “creative differences” soon

[Legion Again]

7 minutes ago, GambitPool said:

 

[JustLurking]

26 minutes ago, XXRkham Asylum said:

Expected $100M DOM Openers

 

2023

The Marvels
 

2024

Beyond the Spider-Verse 

Deadpool 3

Mufasa: The Lion King

Captain America: Brace New World

Joker: Folie a Deux

Thunderbolts

 

2025

Fantastic Four 

Superman Legacy

MCU Spider-Man 4

The Batman Pt. 2

Avatar 3

 

———
 

Potential $100M DOM Openers

 

2023

Aquaman 2

 

2024

Kung Fu Panda 4

Snow White

Inside Out 2

MI:DR - Pt. 2

Despicable Me 4 (opens on Wednesday but the weekend could still do it ala Mario)

 

2025

Blade 

How to Train Your Dragon (LA)

Moana (LA)

 

NOTE: Just my personal thoughts right now. Might have missed some films with all the date shuffling.

 

I will not forgive y'all if you let mufasa open over 100M folks

[AJG]

2 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

Oh wait I got the next 100DOM opener: Dune