Weekend Actuals (Jun 23 - 25) | 19.00M ATSV | 18.44M ELEMENTAL | 15.14M THE FLASH | 15.00M NO HARD FEELINGS

[Issac Newton]

#Studio Reports (via CS)

 

[straggler]

1 hour ago, baumer said:

I think it's kind of sad when these days you consider an a-lister to be someone who can open a film to 15 million dollars. Back in the day that would seem pretty damn pathetic. If you're paying someone $25 million dollars to do your film you best be hoping that film opens to at least what you paid her. I like Jennifer lawrence, in fact I like her probably more than a lot of people do here. I absolutely loved Passengers and Silver linings playbook is one of my favorite movies of the last quarter century. But a 15 million dollar opening? That's pretty sad.

I think it is just the reality nowadays. The days when a movie like Bad Teacher can make a $100 million are likely gone. I think Covid and especially streaming changed people's behaviors. They know they can catch a film at home a few months down the line. There is a reason the market is now almost all established IPs and why certain types of films are now streaming films. And why the R-rated comedies disappeared. Expectations have to be judged against reality, not nostalgia. I think it did as well as could be reasonably expected. I have a feeling this film will be very popular on Netflix or Amazon. Have not figured out how that factors into a studio's calculations.  

[KP1025]

4 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

How much did Lost in the Stars do? That probably won worldwide but not sure

 

Looks like that had a $97.5 million OW in China.

[Starphanluke]

For some reason I was thinking Transformers was still in the $200m range WW. Hm. Maybe it actually will squeak by $400m. 

 

Not great, but not The Flash, either.

 

Edit: It seems like Australia opened this weekend, and Japan is the last major market to go. Can't find the Japanese numbers for past movies off-hand, but I think Bumblebee was like $5m? So not like it will make much of a dent in the total. 

Edited June 25, 2023 by Starphanluke

[Issac Newton]

2 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

 

Looks like that had a $97.5 million OW in China.

That incl. WED limited shows + THU DBF start. I wonder if those are included in WW OW (I meant if it's FSS WW then need to cut $27.2M from $97.5M)

[emoviefan]

50 minutes ago, toutvabien said:

MCU has 3 of its leggiest runs ever post Endgame with Shang-Chi, NWH and now this one.

But But But the MCU is over isnt't it. 

[kayumanggi]

 

I know it opened low, but this is still good. Let us see how much this drops against RUBY GILLMAN, TEENAGE KRAKEN next week.

[John Marston]

I remember loads of people, mainly on Reddit and Superherohype, who thought Keaton Batman would cause people to barge down the doors like it was Black Friday to see The Flash. 

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, kayumanggi said:

 

I know it opened low, but this is still good. Let us see how much this drops against RUBY GILLMAN, TEENAGE KRAKEN next week.

I fully expect it to be ahead of Ruby Gillman (which seems as if it'll be lucky to hit a double digits opening) over next weekend.

[kayumanggi]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I fully expect it to be ahead of Ruby Gillman (which seems as if it'll be lucky to hit a double digits opening) over next weekend.

 

Hoping for at least 12M for ELEMENTAL.

[toutvabien]

33 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

So ELEMENTAL wins worldwide, right? 😅

 

worldwide / overseas / domestic

 

49.76M / 31.30M / 18.46M / ELEMENTAL

41.87M / 26.60M / 15.27M / THE FLASH

41.30M / 22.00M / 19.30M / SPIDER-MAN: ATSV

37.20M / 25.60M / 11.60M / TRANSFORMERS: ROTB

24.60M / 09.50M / 15.10M / NO HARD FEELINGS

18.07M / 09.40M / 08.67M / THE LITTLE MERMAID

ELEMENTAL SWEEP

[toutvabien]

23 minutes ago, Starphanluke said:

Not great, but not The Flash, either.

This is quickly becoming several studios' motto for this Summer.

[wildphantom]

I see Flash finishing around $120 million
 

Appropriately in line with: 

 

Superbad - $121.5 million

Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again - $120.6 million
The Sum of All Fears - $118.9 million

The Break-Up - $118.7 million

A Series of Unfortunate Events - $118.6 million

Horrible Bosses - $117.5 million

 

[21C]

3 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

I see Flash finishing around $120 million
 

Appropriately in line with: 

 

Superbad - $121.5 million

Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again - $120.6 million
The Sum of All Fears - $118.9 million

The Break-Up - $118.7 million

A Series of Unfortunate Events - $118.6 million

Horrible Bosses - $117.5 million

 

It won't finish at around 120 million. It's already pacing behind Green Lantern and Watchmen. 110 million at best. 

[Deep Wang]

1 hour ago, toutvabien said:

MCU has 3 of its leggiest runs ever post Endgame with Shang-Chi, NWH and now this one.

 

You're not wrong, but they have also had their 2 least leggy runs of all time and if I'm looking at the right data - 4 of the bottom 5 in OW multi's are post Endgame.  

[ZeeSoh]

2 hours ago, M37 said:

I'll put it this way: Collide holds the (likely) unbeatable record of a -88.5% second weekend drop because Open Road was willing to dump it, pulling half of its theaters and likely 75% of its shows for the second weekend, something that almost never happens for a major release. Same for National Champions at #2, against NWH. Can't make money if there are no shows

 

If a bad second weekend drop is being used as a measure of frontloadness, audience rejection after the opening, then that should be weighed against opportunity, ie the show volume. Flash, Morbius and the others on this list didn't lack for supply, only demand, and to me that puts them a step above (well, below)

I don't even know what is going on right now lol. See your original point was that Steel should not be called a CBM. And I was arguing that it is a CBM movie regardless of any qualifiers like TC and what not. 

[M37]

33 minutes ago, straggler said:

Bad Teacher can make a $100 million

Doesn’t change the point, but like $98.5M and a whole lot of fudging (somebody wanted that bonus)

[DAR]

8 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

I see Flash finishing around $120 million
 

Appropriately in line with: 

 

Superbad - $121.5 million

Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again - $120.6 million
The Sum of All Fears - $118.9 million

The Break-Up - $118.7 million

A Series of Unfortunate Events - $118.6 million

Horrible Bosses - $117.5 million

 

And those movies combined probably cost slightly more than the Flash.

[toutvabien]

With Guardians 3 hitting digital in two weeks and Disney+ probably sometime in August and no dates set for The Little Mermaid yet, is it possible that Elemental remains fairly theatrically exclusive through Labor Day wknd?

[Eevin]

1 hour ago, toutvabien said:

MCU has 3 of its leggiest runs ever post Endgame with Shang-Chi, NWH and now this one.

did a lil digging and once it passes ~$356m gotg 3 will be the leggiest summer opener since…iron man, funnily enough. feels like a very full circle moment

 

2008: iron man - 98.7m/318.6m (3.23x)

2009: x-men origins wolverine - 85.1m/179.9m (2.11x)

2010: iron man 2 - 128.1m/312.4m (2.44x)

2011: thor - 65.7m/181m (2.75x)

2012: avengers - 207.4m/623.3m (3.00x)

2013: iron man 3 - 174.1m/409m (2.35x)

2014: TASM2 - 91.6m/202.8m (2.21x)

2015: age of ultron - 191.4m/459m (2.40x)

2016: civil war - 179.1m/408m (2.28x)

2017: gotg 2 - 146.5m/389.8m (2.66x)

2018: infinity war - 257.7m/678.8m (2.63x) 

2019: endgame - 357.1m/858.4m (2.40x)

2021: black widow - 80.4m/183.7m (2.28x)

2022: doctor strange 2 - 187.4m/411.3m (2.11x)

2023: gotg 3 - 118.4m/~360m (3.04x)