Weekend Thread | July 7-9 | Weekend Estimates on Page 32

[Valonqar]

Does anyone have theater count for this weekend and also if AtSV is getting some PLF back again?

[baumer]

Fwiw BOR predicts sound of freedom will make 13.5 million.

[KP1025]

2 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Does anyone have theater count for this weekend and also if AtSV is getting some PLF back again?

 

Theater Counts for July 7

Movie	Distributor	Theaters	Previous Theaters	Change
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny	Walt Disney	4,600	4,600
Elemental	Walt Disney	3,440	3,650	-210
Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken	Universal Pictures	3,408	3,400	+8
Insidious: The Red Door	Sony Pictures	3,188		New
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse	Sony Pictures	3,023	3,405	-382
Sound of Freedom	Angel Studios	2,850	2,634	+216
Joy Ride	Lionsgate	2,820		New
No Hard Feelings	Sony Pictures	2,686	3,208	-522
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts	Paramount Pictures	2,475	2,852	-377
The Little Mermaid	Walt Disney	2,080	2,430	-350
The Flash	Warner Bros.	1,723	2,718	-995
Asteroid City	Focus Features	1,111	1,901	-790
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3	Walt Disney	735	1,165	-430
The Boogeyman	20th Century Studios	650	1,020	-370
Blackening	Lionsgate	436	853	-417
The Lesson	Bleecker Street	268		New
Every Body	Focus Features	255	255
The Super Mario Bros. Movie	Universal Pictures	184	450	-266
Fast X	Universal Pictures	172	550	-378
About My Father	Lionsgate	96	127	-31
Biosphere	IFC Films	48		New
The Last Rider	Roadside Attractions	9	31	-22
Somewhere in Queens	Roadside Attractions	5	7	-2
Amanda	Oscilloscope Pictures	2		New

[M37]

6 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

That range for Sound of Freedom in this weeks derby 

To be fair, there’s really not much of a guide path for such an unusual release. Anything from 2-5x Wed wouldn’t really surprise me 

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

1 minute ago, M37 said:

To be fair, there’s really not much of a guide path for such an unusual release. Anything from 2-5x Wed wouldn’t really surprise me 

Yeah I think I guessed way too low looking at the average, tbf that -72% drop yesterday is scary

[MightyDargon]

Spidey wouldn't get PLF back yet because Dial still has 1 week to go.

[M37]

7 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Does anyone have theater count for this weekend and also if AtSV is getting some PLF back again?

That would be no for ATSV. Pretty sure Indy had them locked down through second weekend, which is why MI7 pushed up to Wed opening with 2 PLF preview days 

 

 

[baumer]

4 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

Yeah I think I guessed way too low looking at the average, tbf that -72% drop yesterday is scary

 

If you're talking about sound of freedom, it's not a 72% drop lol. That 14 million number was almost 3 million dollars in paid forward sales plus two full days of grosses, Monday and tuesday.....so its drop is probably more in line with everything else.

[M37]

4 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

Yeah I think I guessed way too low looking at the average, tbf that -72% drop yesterday is scary

It was -72% off a 2 day total though, full day of “previews” on Mon + Tue holiday effect. I expected Wed to be closer to $3M tbh 

[TwoMisfits]

8 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

Yeah I think I guessed way too low looking at the average, tbf that -72% drop yesterday is scary

 

It was a drop from 2 days of BO + presales to just 1 day of BO, so if Charlie had real Tuesday right (about $6.5M?), then the Sound of Freedom drop from Tues to Wed was about 37-38%, or in line with a lot of other movie drops...

 

I'd expect Thursday to be flatish (-10%-+5%) and FSS to actually probably increase some with the extra Canada expansions and the workdays off for the adults audience...

 

Edit to Add: with $18M in BO already in and 4 days left (Thurs-Sun), I think even I was a little low on the 6 day...I think over $30M is almost certain if Thursday doesn't fall off a cliff...now $40M (the next mountain up) might still be too far...

Edited July 7, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[Valonqar]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

That would be no for ATSV. Pretty sure Indy had them locked down through second weekend, which is why MI7 pushed up to Wed opening with 2 PLF preview days 

 

 

 

Sucks.

 

Also thanks @KP1025 for the theater count list. Lmaoo why the fuck is Ruby getting 8 more theaters? 

[CJohn]

Waiting for some official Insidious previews numbers before celebrating.

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

6 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

If you're talking about sound of freedom, it's not a 72% drop lol. That 14 million number was almost 3 million dollars in paid forward sales plus two full days of grosses, Monday and tuesday.....so its drop is probably more in line with everything else.

Good point, I forgot about those damned previews lol

[baumer]

7 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

If you're talking about sound of freedom, it's not a 72% drop lol. That 14 million number was almost 3 million dollars in paid forward sales plus two full days of grosses, Monday and tuesday.....so its drop is probably more in line with everything else.

 

You guys should see some of the absolutely pissed off diatribes I get from people on Instagram when I try to explain this. I actually start off by saying "as much as I'm looking forward to seeing this movie and as much as I want it to make gobs of money, it did not dethrone Indiana Jones on Tuesday'" lol and this drives some people absolutely crazy. It's actually kind of humorous. 

[baumer]

3 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Waiting for some official Insidious previews numbers before celebrating.

But it's charlie, he's usually pretty Bang on.

[baumer]

11 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

It was a drop from 2 days of BO + presales to just 1 day of BO, so if Charlie had real Tuesday right (about $6.5M?), then the Sound of Freedom drop from Tues to Wed was about 37-38%, or in line with a lot of other movie drops...

 

I'd expect Thursday to be flatish (-10%-+5%) and FSS to actually probably increase some with the extra Canada expansions and the workdays off for the adults audience...

 

Edit to Add: with $18M in BO already in and 4 days left (Thurs-Sun), I think even I was a little low on the 6 day...I think over $30M is almost certain if Thursday doesn't fall off a cliff...now $40M (the next mountain up) might still be too far...

 

I think your assessment is bang on and so now an interesting question is, do you think this movie could touch a hundred million? I think it's reaching out beyond its core audience now and a lot of people are talking about it. I'm not trying to get ahead of myself but for a film that no one had even heard of 5 days ago to be making this kind of noise less than a week into it's run..... At this point I don't think anything is out of the realm of possibility.

[M37]

16 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

Sucks.

 

Also thanks @KP1025 for the theater count list. Lmaoo why the fuck is Ruby getting 8 more theaters? 

I had same reaction, like who said “gimme some of that Ruby action!”

 

Probably some smaller locations that didn’t open it, where Insidious and/or Joy Ride wouldn’t play well, wanted something new to offer 

[Issac Newton]

China PS for MI7 has started.

 

¥0 Previews &¥37 OD PS so far ~ $5.12

[TwoMisfits]

38 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

I think your assessment is bang on and so now an interesting question is, do you think this movie could touch a hundred million? I think it's reaching out beyond its core audience now and a lot of people are talking about it. I'm not trying to get ahead of myself but for a film that no one had even heard of 5 days ago to be making this kind of noise less than a week into it's run..... At this point I don't think anything is out of the realm of possibility.

 

Ask me after I see it Monday...normally watching something gives me the best "feel" for how it could or could not break out huge (when I saw TGM last summer on Memorial Day Monday, while I had been high on it for the board, that's when I made my "will win the year DOM" predict - you just knew seeing it).

 

I mean, sitting here, with the openers' gauntlet coming, I'd think no...but if it truly is as good as Variety said, then maybe...its problem is the same problem Indy/MI 7/Oppenheimer have - drawing from a lot of the same audience and all releasing in a row.  In Sound's favor, I think it's expanded its audience to the once-a-year and never-goers, so it's not as on point to that audience...but then again, it's not as on point to draw the other, much bigger, audience, either...at least, I suspect, although maybe I'll watch it and change my mind on a dime:)...but if it can't draw that bigger audience well, it's looking at being the drop over Indy (or with Indy) at Oppenheimer's open, b/c small and midsize won't want 4 adult drawing movies on their limited screens...

Edited July 7, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[divesyn]

 

jesus