Weekend Thread | July 7-9 | Weekend Estimates on Page 32

[MrHardapple]

31 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

From Mark@Insidekino

 

 

 

FYI he has comscore access as well. 

Massive numbers for SoF.

Actuals could be even higher with the Pay it Forward tickets.

It will beat Insidious next weekend for sure.

Looks highly possible that it also beats Indy next weekend.

Edited July 10, 2023 by MrHardapple

[Legion Again]

A recent history of 2nd weekends for A+ faith community adjacent movies (true FSS drop to be more apples to apples):

Jesus Revolution -32.5%

American underdog excluded for Xmas sat opening

Overcomer -23% (~ -32% adjusting for labor sun)

Unplanned -33%

I can Only Imagine -14%

The Case for Christ -30% (can’t find any preview fig)

Miracles from Heaven -35% (midweek open)

Woodlawn -36% (can’t find previews)

War Room -12% (~ -24% adjusting for Labor sun)

 

Overall I would guess perhaps 13-15M for SOF

[PlatnumRoyce]

54 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

From Mark@Insidekino

 

without magic money

Something that's clearly getting lost in the Sound of Freedom "pay it forward" discourse is that the film is also heavily pushing group tickets (buy one get one free starting at ten tickets [aka 5 purchased tickets]). How common is this? I suspect that's also playing a role here. 

[baumer]

2 minutes ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

Something that's clearly getting lost in the Sound of Freedom "pay it forward" discourse is that the film is also heavily pushing group tickets (buy one get one free starting at ten tickets [aka 5 purchased tickets]). How common is this? I suspect that's also playing a role here. 

 

Do you have a link for this? I don't see this anywhere near where I am.

[PlatnumRoyce]

6 minutes ago, baumer said:

Do you have a link for this? I don't see this anywhere near where I am.

It was an atoms ticket promo that seems to have semi-expired (on their website but no longer on atomtickets).

Quote

 

Which theaters support this promotion?
Coupon codes are valid at any theater that is partnered with Atom Tickets. See angel.com/groups for details.

Why are group tickets discounted?
The Angel Community will match your group ticket purchase (ex: buy 10 get 10 free)

How do I redeem tickets?
You will get a coupon code good for up to the total size of your group. Pass your coupon code to your group so they can pick their own seats.

 

https://www.angel.com/tickets/sound-of-freedom and click on "group tickets." /"Flex group tickets"

 

I could easily be overselling this, but it stuck out to me when I poked around last week. 

[M37]

1 hour ago, LegionGPT said:

FWIW:

Movie	Shows	Change	Gross	PSA
Indiana Jones 5	68,347	-31.15%	$27,000,000	$395
Insidious 6	63,877		$33,000,000	$517
Joy Ride	46,097		$5,850,000	$127
Elemental	36,597	-14.92%	$9,600,000	$262
Ruby Gillman	31,974	-28.67%	$2,800,000	$88
Sound of Freedom	31,280		$19,000,000	$607
Spider-Verse 2	30,229	-20.12%	$8,000,000	$265
No Hard Feelings	27,981	-25.94%	$5,250,000	$188
Transformers 6	23,616	-21.56%	$5,000,000	$212
The Little Mermaid	17,956	-27.01%	$3,500,000	$195
The Flash	12,416	-56.39%	$2,215,000	$178
Asteroid City	12,045	-51.42%	$2,240,000	$186
Past Lives	5,026	-55.09%	$1,000,000	$199
Guardians Vol. 3	4,723	-45.08%	$1,000,000	$212

 

 

Showcounts sourced from @katnisscinnaplex, an incomplete but substantial coverage.

 

Ruby will get pasted, Joy Ride may have some 2 wk contract protection but it’s gone on barbieheimer wknd, and then there is a lot of 200ish stuff which can give up screens to provide some protection for Elemental/SV2/Indy. SOF may expand? The Sunday from marks suggests a great 2nd weekend imo retaining 2nd place PSA after MI and maybe even 2nd place gross if things get funky.

Would expect decent cuts to everything below $300 PSA, but also a lot of screen sharing (including Ruby keeping 1-3 shows)

 

And then Barbemheimer clears house, other than MI7, Insiduous, and Indy, maybe SOF. Theater counts probably look similar to JWD OW last summer

[baumer]

I'm really curious to see how the Sunday numbers hold up. I think some movies might have a better Sunday than with the estimated.

[Water Bottle]

Very disappointed Joy Ride did only estimated $5 million. What a funny movie. Hopefully wasn't too expensive for Lionsgate. 

[Last Man Standing]

2 minutes ago, Water Bottle said:

Very disappointed Joy Ride did only estimated $5 million. What a funny movie. Hopefully wasn't too expensive for Lionsgate. 

I blame American racism (that's how it works right guys?).

[ChipDerby]

6 minutes ago, Last Man Standing said:

I blame American racism (that's how it works right guys?).

 

You're not far off base though. But good try!

[Gokai Red]

Can someone explain to me why all of Disney's major releases seem to be in a theater count that is divisible by 5 every single weekend since COVID reopenings? The only exceptions I've found are the OW for ATWOW, BPWF, DSMOM, and the fourth weekend of Shang Chi. It seems too intentional and gone on for too long to be a coincidence. 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

8 minutes ago, Last Man Standing said:

I blame American racism (that's how it works right guys?).

It is valid to an extent overseas, but I'm not sure about America. Regardless, the real issue is that it's an original comedy with no real hook or stars. As I said previously, No Hard Feelings would've tanked just as badly as this without Jennifer Lawrence.

[Last Man Standing]

2 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

 

You're not far off base though. But good try!

Glad that we're on the same page!

[Mojoguy]

13 minutes ago, Last Man Standing said:

I blame American racism (that's how it works right guys?).

Keep that shit out of this topic.

 

Racism trolling is what ruined TLM topic.

[Last Man Standing]

1 minute ago, Mojoguy said:

Keep that shit out of this topic.

 

Racism trolling is what ruined TLM topic.

Gotta bring it back at least once after Americans in this forum accused approx. half the world of racism.

[Eric S'ennui]

Moderation

 

@Last Man Standing continue this nonsense any further and you're getting a threadban. This isn't funny.

[Last Man Standing]

3 minutes ago, Eric Bunny said:

Moderation

 

@Last Man Standing continue this nonsense any further and you're getting a threadban. This isn't funny.

I don't think it's funny at all, I think it's an accusation Americans weaponize against other countries but will never let anyone weaponize against them (hence the warning), fair enough though I'll let it rest, I've made my point.

[Hildagarde25]

26 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Regardless, the real issue is that it's an original comedy with no real hook or stars. As I said previously, No Hard Feelings would've tanked just as badly as this without Jennifer Lawrence.

 

Yeah, I was surprised NHF did as well as it did (guess thanks to JLaw), because I feel like rauchy comedies are a hard sell these days. Anecdotal, but I also don't remember that much promotion for Joy Ride. Most of my friends didn't even know it was out now.   

Edited July 10, 2023 by Hildagarde25

[Eric S'ennui]

Moderation

 

@Last Man Standing has now been threadbanned for continuing his "American racism" argument when a staff member specifically told them to stop. When a staff member tells you to stop, you stop. And if you really want to state your case, you can do so through PMs. Sorry, but that is how the rules work.

[Krissykins]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

From Mark@Insidekino

 

 

 

FYI he has comscore access as well. 

Everything increased then, nice. 
 

43 minutes ago, Water Bottle said:

Very disappointed Joy Ride did only estimated $5 million. What a funny movie. Hopefully wasn't too expensive for Lionsgate. 

Me too, I thought it was hilarious. Funniest film of the year.