TOM CRUISE LOVES HIS POPCORN. MOVIES. POPCORN: THE WEEKEND THREAD | We are just waiting for Barbenheimer here

[MattW]

The talk about box office being bad this year or this summer doesn't have any bearing in reality. Every month has been roughly flat or well ahead of last year up until July. 

 

Jan 2023 almost 200m ahead of 2022.

Feb +130m.

March +50m

April +300m

May 2023 was only 12m under May 2022.

June 2023  +35m over 2022

 

July is significantly behind month-to-date but that's only bc the big movies last year were at the beginning of the month, this year they're coming near the end and will play strong past labor day weekend which I think will make August this year play much stronger than last years August.

Last year the big movie was a plf heavy movie while this year it was an animated one, which I think likely means a lower overall share for plf this year and thus (marginally) higher admissions relative to revenue.

 

The overall box office recovery is still going well....

 

(overly rehashed argument hidden)

 

Spoiler

But...

It's never going back to what it was. Like many I think the primary cause is the lack of a well defined window like we had on the 2000s. Used to be like 6 months before you could buy or rent a physical copy, 12-18 months before it went on cable, and many years to get to network TV. Now it's 2 or 3 months to streaming? You don't even have to leave your house and you get something in effect cheaper than a trip to blockbuster. I'm surprised executives are as blind to this as they seem to be. 

 

[M37]

15 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Saturday was $21.3M, repping a 28% spike over Friday’s $16.7M. Sunday is figured at a -15% ease with $18.1M.

That Saturday number, if it holds, would be just a hair below Fallout’s opening Saturday. Also not sure why anyone would project a -15% Sun, both Fallout and RN had a -20%

 

Just throwing this out there, given the “we hear”: I wonder if Anthony’s source knows the Friday number is inflated by ~$2M in leftover EA, and isn’t mistakenly projecting a +28% from the reported $16.5M rather than theTFri of ~$14.5M

[Ryan Reynolds]

11 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

Has anyone in this forum attended a showing of SOF? Are there actually people in the seats watching the film? The numbers for it are absurd and I struggle to believe they are realistic. I think I will go see DR in Dolby on Sunday afternoon and peak my head into a SOF screening to see for myself.

i have not, its a wom film, the people that have seen it love it. if you see empty screenings its just people taking advantage of seeing a free movie over, but go to different screening once at theater , but that is a small percentage

[LegionWrex]

Just now, LonePirate said:

I just purchased a ticket to see DR in Dolby at 3pm on Sunday. There is a 2:45pm showing of SOF so I’ll see how full it is because this is what the AMC app shows for it right now: 

 

And that's not accounting for walk-ups either, that's insane. It's not playing in my local theater (I live in Canada) but I heard from a friend that in his theater showings are either sold out or basically empty, no in between.

[Ryan Reynolds]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

That Saturday number, if it holds, would be just a hair below Fallout’s opening Saturday. Also not sure why anyone would project a -15% Sun, both Fallout and RN had a -20%

 

Just throwing this out there, given the “we hear”: I wonder if Anthony’s source knows the Friday number is inflated by ~$2M in leftover EA, and isn’t mistakenly projecting a +28% from the reported $16.5M rather than theTFri of ~$14.5M

its later in its run, Rise of the Beasts with weaker wom fell 17.2% so its optimistic but not impossible

[M37]

1 minute ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

its later in its run, Rise of the Beasts with weaker wom fell 17.2% so its optimistic but not impossible

Yeah, but that’s a different audience demo, so not really comparable 

[Ryan Reynolds]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

Yeah, but that’s a different audience demo, so not really comparable 

still DL is doing what Paramount says, it won't be far off, though they oversold D&D 40m opening , so can fall short

[JustLurking]

13 minutes ago, M37 said:

That Saturday number, if it holds, would be just a hair below Fallout’s opening Saturday. Also not sure why anyone would project a -15% Sun, both Fallout and RN had a -20%

 

Just throwing this out there, given the “we hear”: I wonder if Anthony’s source knows the Friday number is inflated by ~$2M in leftover EA, and isn’t mistakenly projecting a +28% from the reported $16.5M rather than theTFri of ~$14.5M

Surely they're not that dumb.

 

...right?

[interiorgatordecorator]

Charlie says 76-77

they might need to fudge it to get it over MI2's 5-day of 78.8

 

[LegionWrex]

Time to Age of Extinction those numbers.

[keysersoze123]

Saturday number is really good considering the true friday number. Let us see how the weekdays go. 

[Ryan Reynolds]

3 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

Charlie says 76-77

they might need to fudge it to get it over MI2's 5-day of 78.8

 

80m estimate and 79m final , no way it falls short

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Holds coming in good. Glad to see it.

[Webslinger]

I was thinking about this while rewatching the entire franchise in the run-up to seeing Dead Reckoning today, but it is kinda weird to think how the first two Mission: Impossible films both posted the third biggest opening weekend ever at their respective times of release, while none of the subsequent sequels sniffed anywhere near those relative heights.

 

During said rewatches, I also remembered how badly M:I-III underperformed at the box office and was glad that the whole franchise wasn't just canceled right then and there. I'll never forget my jaw literally dropping when I got back home from a weekend trip with no internet access (because 2006, LOL) and saw that film's $48 million weekend estimate, which then dropped even further with actuals. Between that and the general backlash to Tom Cruise over his public antics around that time, it really seemed like the franchise was dead in the water. To see it still getting a $290 million budgeted Part One 17 years later feels absolutely bonkers in the best way.

[Gavin Feng]

if FRI actually got $14.5M without early previews, the SAT jump is pretty good, right?

 

Not the best MI films, but it deserve better performance.

[interiorgatordecorator]

so pretty much the exact same 5-day as MI2

wonder what 79 million in 2000 is today, too lazy to do that math, but I assume DR is selling half as many tickets as 2 did

maybe in another world mission impossible is a 400-million-dollar franchise (instead of the usual 200), that of course would have required 2 and 3 to have been better and for tom cruise to have had a more normal early 2000's

Edited July 16, 2023 by interiorgatordecorator

[LegionWrex]

1 minute ago, Webslinger said:

I was thinking about this while rewatching the entire franchise in the run-up to seeing Dead Reckoning today, but it is kinda weird to think how the first two Mission: Impossible films both posted the third biggest opening weekend ever at their respective times of release, while none of the subsequent sequels sniffed anywhere near those relative heights.

 

During said rewatches, I also remembered how badly M:I-III underperformed at the box office and was glad that the whole franchise wasn't just canceled right then and there. I'll never forget my jaw literally dropping when I got back home from a weekend trip with no internet access (because 2006, LOL) and saw that film's $48 million weekend estimate, which then dropped even further with actuals. Between that and the general backlash to Tom Cruise over his public antics around that time, it really seemed like the franchise was dead in the water. To see it still getting a $290 million budgeted Part One 17 years later feels absolutely bonkers in the best way.

In retrospect I blame the shifting public perception of Tom Cruise at the time (particularly during the mid-2000s) and M:I2's somewhat "eh" reception among critics and audiences. M:I2 has a cult following nowadays but it's easy to forget that people were mostly just kind of it not really for it when it first came out, it was mostly a huge hit cause it was at the height of Cruise's star power and the first film's success.

 

Also another fun fact about M:I2 is that while it was the big winner of 2000 in terms of WW box office, domestically it was beaten by How the Grinch Stole Christmas, of all things.

[WorkingonaName]

12 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

Charlie says 76-77

they might need to fudge it to get it over MI2's 5-day of 78.8

 

Were back baby

[Ryan Reynolds]

8 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

if FRI actually got $14.5M without early previews, the SAT jump is pretty good, right?

 

Not the best MI films, but it deserve better performance.

after seeing the film, under Rogue Nation seems about right

[Algebra]

Will Cruise's career survive another MI franchise OW record?