C’MON BARBIE LET'S GO PARTY...AT LOS ALAMOS | BARBENHEIMER WEEKEND THREAD | We’re Thriving in our Plastic Fantastic Era | Mother Mothered with 162M | Daddy Exploded with 82.4M

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

I wonder if Indy became the go-to spillover movie for people that couldn't see Barbenheimer because their showings were full.

It would have made way more sense for that movie to be MI though imo, so I’ll need to see the #s from somewhere besides DL before I believe it 

[Travod]

My main theater is sold out of Barbie all weekend through 10 PM Sunday night, and Oppenheimer with about 75% of the number of showings is maybe 95% sold

[baumer]

16 minutes ago, KC7 said:

https://deadline.com/2023/07/box-office-barbie-oppenheimer-barbenheimer-1235443828/

 

 

Friday Miday: Warner Bros.’ Barbie is eyeing $68M-70M today, including last night’s previews, for what’s shaping up to be the best opening of the year with $150M at 4,243 theaters. That would beat the 3-day of Super Mario Bros‘ $146.3M. Some rivals see higher like $165M-$170M but it’s still early and everyone is getting excited. Remember, female skewing movies are very front-loaded (remember a movie called Twilight?).

Universal’s Oppenheimer is certainly not getting scraps: It’s headed for $32M today, including previews, and a $75M 3-day at 3,610 theaters. That’s higher than Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny‘s $60.3M start. Wow.

Do your math, the two titles are fueling $225M alone this weekend.

So far, Paramount’s Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning despite shedding Imax, isn’t taking a horrible hit, -54% in weekend 2 with $25M with a $124.2M running total. Friday is looking like $6.6M.

Angel Studios’ Sound of Freedom at 3,285 is resilient as well with an amazing $20M, -26%, weekend 3 and running total of $124.4M. Disney’s Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny is fifth with an estimated fourth weekend of $7M, -43% and running cume by Sunday of $159.3M.

For mission Impossible. I don't really see how it's going to hold out well when it basically lost all this most expensive screens. And the Indiana Jones hold is amazing as well. Sound of freedom is having another great hold but most of us thought it would finish ahead of mission Impossible this weekend. 

[MovieMan89]

Do we know Indy’s screen loss this weekend? 

[spizzer]

4 minutes ago, KC7 said:

 

The issue is, they're using Twilight as their comparison, thinking they're similarly female-skewing, and those movies did make half of their weekend gross on Friday.

 

Twilight: $35.987M Friday; $69.6M 1st weekend

Breaking Dawn 2: $71.1M Friday; $141M 1st weekend

 

But those were books that had diehard fans, and not a infinite number, so of course they were frontloaded. They're ignoring that Barbie has a wider potential audience, especially with its reviews. At least in my area, the theaters are close to sold out all weekend so there's no sign its going to burn through half of its audience on the first day.

 

Not only that, they're also (as always) ignoring Preview:True Friday ratio, choosing to just do the simplest comparison math possible by getting a total Friday number and applying an IM pulled from a comp, without questioning the splits that made up that Friday figure in the first place. 

[baumer]

2 minutes ago, KC7 said:

 

It's on the last page.

Thank you very much, I just found it.

[excel1]

R.I.P.

 

EVERY OTHER MOVIE

[bakedpotato]

12 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

There is no sync between 70M Friday and 150M weekend lol...feel like they are intentionally lowballing the weekend number

Yeah, pretty clearly low-balling. They are still assuming frontloading, but as trackers here have shown... there are not really signs this is happening. Should be more in line with 170M 😃. Shout out to all the folks here who work hard to track sales and post updates!

[Day and Date The Best]

19 minutes ago, Heretic said:

BFI IMAX in London sold out the 4am show last night and also tonight for Oppenheimer. Insane.

Not insane considering is famously the biggest IMAX by screen area in UK. And congrats on your engagement @Heretic

Edited July 21, 2023 by Day and Date The Best

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

5 minutes ago, DisposedData said:

SoF and Elemental dropped more than i expected. Indy held way better than I expected. Weird.

I think Elemental lost almost all of its evening shows (since it's a kids movie), which means anyone who planned to see it late weren't able to. Meanwhile Indy probably lost more shows but in a more spread out way so no matter what time you wanted to see it there would always be a showing within an hour or so that you could get to. 

[MovieMan89]

There is 0% chance Barbie isn’t closer to 200 than 150 with current Friday #, y’all know DL pulls these out of thin air. Why I’m not believing their amazing Indy projection either. 

[Robertron]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

It does beg the question though: are movies legitimately dying with the youngest gens (primarily alpha)? Two adult skewing blockbusters opening to nearly 300m would have been unthinkable probably until just this very decade. Meanwhile, we can hardly get a family/kid driven movie to open to much of anything now (Minions doesn’t even count bc teens fueled that one). Makes Mario even more impressive honestly. 

To me, this says more about general affordability of/accessibility to purchasing tickets, and doing so regularly. 
It’s become absurdly expensive to go to the cinema these days, so I don't know how families do it. As an example, my partner and I went to the movies on discount Tuesday and got a drink and popcorn to share - that night still cost us about $50.

Consider that in the context of a family who are almost forced to go on weekends, the price skyrockets.

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

5 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

It would have made way more sense for that movie to be MI though imo, so I’ll need to see the #s from somewhere besides DL before I believe it 

I still think there's an assumption in the GA that you need to have seen all 6 prior MI movies to watch the 7th whereas most of them know that you can watch Indy 5 without really needing to see the other 4. 

[harrisonisdead]

13 minutes ago, KC7 said:

 

The issue is, they're using Twilight as their comparison, thinking they're similarly female-skewing, and those movies did make half of their weekend gross on Friday.

Twilight: $35.987M Friday; $69.6M 1st weekend

Breaking Dawn 2: $71.1M Friday; $141M 1st weekend

 

But those were books that had diehard fans, and not a infinite number, so of course they were frontloaded. They're ignoring that Barbie has a wider potential audience, especially with its reviews. At least in my area, the theaters are close to sold out all weekend.

Those movies were also already quite frontloaded from previews alone. Breaking Dawn Part 1 and 2 both had Fridays just over 2.3x their previews (& New Moon 2.76x), whereas Barbie has 3.14x if 70M holds. Not to mention the fact that New Moon and Breaking Dawn Part 1's showings started at midnight and Part 2's started at 10PM, while Barbie enjoyed showings that started far earlier at 3PM (along with those Wednesday screenings) which would theoretically inflate its previews potential compared to the Twilight films. The first Twilight also came out 15 years ago, so hardly feels relevant to today's moviegoing landscape. It feels like a virtually (possibly entirely) useless comp.

Edited July 21, 2023 by harrisonisdead

[WebSurfer]

Is Barbie tracking higher than Mario?

[Brainbug]

Man this thread makes me really nostalgic about the mid and late 2010s on this forum. I miss those times.

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, Robertron said:

To me, this says more about general affordability of/accessibility to purchasing tickets, and doing so regularly. 
It’s become absurdly expensive to go to the cinema these days, so I don't know how families do it. As an example, my partner and I went to the movies on discount Tuesday and got a drink and popcorn to share - that night still cost us about $50.

Consider that in the context of a family who are almost forced to go on weekends, the price skyrockets.

It’s a factor for sure, but I do think kids are generally less interested in the theater today. Some of them don’t even know what it is at all bc covid was when they would have gone to their first movies normally. I think if kids really want to go see something at the theater, most parents aren’t going to deny them outright. Maybe make them wait until a discount Tuesday or something, but not just not go. 

[DAR]

2 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

At&t pissed him off, not Zaslav

I know that now.  More fun to blame Zaslav though 

 

[budice]

 

[McNerdy]

11 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

nah..Indy lost only 32% of the shows...that's probably the main reason why it hasn't had a bigger drop. MI7 for example lost like 50% of it's shows. Some of the other holdovers like ATSV, TLM lost like 70% of shows. I think even Insidious3 lost like 40%+ of the shows

So Thursday is already with all the shows/theater losses or does that start Friday?