baumer Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nate Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Assuming a ~90m 2nd weekend and 30-45% drops from here on out, I'm going with a range of 575-600m for Barbie. Think it'll land right between Mario and Incredibles 2. Now, if we see 100m+ 2nd weekend... oh boy, Incredibles 2 (and the Avengers) are in big trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 SOF only falls about 10% while MI7 crumbles by about 37% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
upriser7 Posted July 27, 2023 Author Share Posted July 27, 2023 Glad to see Elemental touching 1M. Quite a good hold 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 1 hour ago, harrisonisdead said: Minions 2 got close last summer, $10.34M to $10.75M Definitely some holiday inflation in those weekdays around July 4th, especially for a family movie, but good catch Boogeyman actually did it earlier this summer ($1.23M vs $1.1M), but pretty sure a lot of school got out that week, so not apples to apples Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheddar Please Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, Nate said: Assuming a ~90m 2nd weekend and 30-45% drops from here on out, I'm going with a range of 575-600m for Barbie. Think it'll land right between Mario and Incredibles 2. Now, if we see 100m+ 2nd weekend... oh boy, Incredibles 2 (and the Avengers) are in big trouble. If it makes 90m this weekend it will have caught up to Incredibles 2 despite opening 20m under. Imo the chances of it going over I2 are reasonably high, but in the case that it begins to fall off, i don't see it landing between SMB and I2 on account of how narrow that range is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingonaName Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Why did Incredibles 2 make so much money, movies mid as hell. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 8 minutes ago, baumer said: SOF only falls about 10% while MI7 crumbles by about 37% It's actually typical midweek action for SOF - it doesn't grow much Tuesdays, so it doesn't fall much Wednesdays...it's like the opposite of almost every other film's business...it's not price sensitive, it's crowd sensitive...its crowds like to enjoy the theaters when they have a few less kids and chaos around...so, Tues/Fri tend to be softer and M/W/Th stronger... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dragoncaine Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 (edited) Do we have an exact Oppy figure for Wednesday yet? Not ERC's rounding shenanigans. Edited July 27, 2023 by Dragoncaine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nate Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said: If it makes 90m this weekend it will have caught up to Incredibles 2 despite opening 20m under. Imo the chances of it going over I2 are reasonably high, but in the case that it begins to fall off, i don't see it landing between SMB and I2 on account of how narrow that range is Incredibles 2 had pretty average legs initially, but actually legged out quite strong in the back half of its run. If it hits a 90m 2nd weekend, I'm expecting Barbie will be able to mostly keep pace (maybe even outpace) before dropping off ever so slightly towards the end of its run. I2 and SMB comps here, with a few others thrown in for fun:https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Barbie-(2023)/Super-Mario-Bros-Movie-The-(2022)/Dark-Knight-The/Lion-King-The-(Live-Action)-(2019)/Beauty-and-the-Beast-(2017)/Incredibles-2#tab=day_by_day_comparison Of course, this all changes if Barbie's 2nd weekend goes over 100. We'll definitely know much more after this weekend. Re. between SMB and I2 being a narrow range, I don't think 575-610 is that narrow? I generally try to predict final grosses within a 20-25ish range. Edited July 27, 2023 by Nate 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 4 hours ago, The Gotham Bank said: Is it safe to say Oppenheimer will start generating pure profit for Universal after the end of this week? I wonder what deal Nolan got for this movie. Variety reported that it needs $400M worldwide to be profitable. It will take awhile to get there, but at least it won’t come up short of that number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ipickthiswhiterose Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 (edited) 10 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said: Why did Incredibles 2 make so much money, movies mid as hell. - Caught some absolutely perfect placement with very few highly anticipated family movies that Summer. - Got early positive reception despite being mediocre since it kept everyone happy (ie Did it shut the kids up for 2 hours and do what it was meant to? Did it use those characters that I liked again? Yes? Then it was great). - The first has outrageous positive perception (personally I find it overrated, but I'm in the minority) that has only grown as a babysitter movie for 15 years leading to many with massive nostalgia for it and thus it being acceptable for groups of teens and twentysomethings to watch unlike some films that are positioned like it. - Mrs Incredible. - Edna Mode was nearly as consciously-made-shamelessly-for-memes as Olaf from Frozen and, just as with Olaf, it worked. - It's a harlequinade/episodic type film, and those are fun and don't suffer from weak plots too much in the way more narrative driven films do. - Superhero movie with a point of difference in the superhero zeitgeist. Edited July 27, 2023 by Ipickthiswhiterose 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toutvabien Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 22 minutes ago, baumer said: Elemental sweep is back 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VanillaSkies Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 9 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said: It's actually typical midweek action for SOF - it doesn't grow much Tuesdays, so it doesn't fall much Wednesdays...it's like the opposite of almost every other film's business...it's not price sensitive, it's crowd sensitive...its crowds like to enjoy the theaters when they have a few less kids and chaos around...so, Tues/Fri tend to be softer and M/W/Th stronger... A lot of the crowd aren’t paying for the tickets themselves, they are using pay it forward funds. So they don’t worry about getting a discounted ticket or not. That also accounts for some of the weaker Tuesday jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingonaName Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ipickthiswhiterose said: - Mrs Incredible. You make a strong argument. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
upriser7 Posted July 27, 2023 Author Share Posted July 27, 2023 In another news, apparently July 20th-26th was the most attended week in theaters in Argentina history. I'd guess there might be couple of other countries in South America with similar records over the last week 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toutvabien Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 11 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said: Why did Incredibles 2 make so much money, movies mid as hell. Elastigirl's thighs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheddar Please Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 7 minutes ago, Nate said: Incredibles 2 had pretty average legs initially, but actually legged out quite strong in the back half of its run. If it hits a 90m 2nd weekend, I'm expecting Barbie will be able to mostly keep pace (maybe even outpace) before dropping off ever so slightly towards the end of its run. I2 and SMB comps here, with a few others thrown in for fun:https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Barbie-(2023)/Super-Mario-Bros-Movie-The-(2022)/Dark-Knight-The/Lion-King-The-(Live-Action)-(2019)/Beauty-and-the-Beast-(2017)/Incredibles-2#tab=day_by_day_comparison Of course, this all changes if Barbie's 2nd weekend goes over 100. We'll definitely know much more after this weekend. Re. between SMB and I2 being a narrow range, I don't think 575-610 is that narrow? I generally try to predict final grosses within a 20-25ish range. It's more that I don't believe that's where I will trend. Right now the possibility is that it would either outtrend I2 (which it has ATM) or it will fall behind. Imo if it gets 90m that puts it on pace to outgross I2, as by the time Barbie runs into more competition, it will have pulled away sufficiently enough from I2 to grant it a bit of leeway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 12 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said: Why did Incredibles 2 make so much money, movies mid as hell. Same reason why Lion King 2019 made so much money: If the predecessor or original is one of the most beloved movies of all time, audiences will storm the sequels doors, even if the film itself is mediocre (Incredibles 2) or even trash (Lion King 2019) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeQ Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 I don't foresee see $100M+ for Barbie. If it follows The Dark Knight from here, it will hit $94.1M for the weekend (which is already an incredible -41.9% drop). That, for me, is kinda best-case-scenario-ish, since I can imagine a bit of a softer Friday jump (+35%) for Barbie. Day Barbie The Dark Knight FRI 70.5M 67.2M SAT 47.8M (-32.2%) 47.7M (-29.1%) SUN 43.7M (-8.6%) 43.6M (-8.5%) MON 26.1M (-40.3%) 24.4M (-43.8%) TUE 26.0M (-0.4%) 20.9M (-14.8%) WED 23.0M (-11.5%) 18.4M (-11.9%) THU 20.6M (-10.4%)* 16.5M (-10.4%) FRI 29.1M (+41.1%)* 23.2M (+41.1%) SAT 35.4M (+21.7%)* 28.3M (+21.7%) SUN 29.6M (-16.3%)* 23.7M (-16.3%) WKD #2 TOTAL: 94.1M (-41.9%) *If follows TDK For now, I'm thinking 90M give or take. That said, I hope I'm wrong (I often am 😅). Definitely would love to see a weekend over Mario's 2nd weekend of 92.35M. And $100M+ would be mind-blowing... Peace, Mike 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
