kayumanggi Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mango Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 1 minute ago, kayumanggi said: Gitesh is just low balling on purpose at this point lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrPink Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 (edited) 3 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said: As a 3 hour movie, you would think a lot of people might wait to see it on the weekend instead of weekdays. But TDKR was also nearly 3 hours and ended up with 4.7x on the 2nd weekend compared to Thursday. Let’s say Empire is a bit low on this early number and Oppy ends up at $9.8M for Thursday. TDKR’s 4.7x multiplier would give Oppy a $46M weekend. Pretty damn good! TDKR also burned off like, twice as much demand as Oppenheimer did and basically had a ton of screens to itself for the first couple weeks. The situation feels completely different here, and we're not even getting to reception or say the Olympics. Just saying, 50m still seems very much plausible to me. Edited July 27, 2023 by MrPink 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeepItU25071906 Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 (edited) 32 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said: Not a game. Just looking at data on Nolan’s previous numbers. With a $9.5M Thursday, it looks like this: TDK (4.568x): $43.4M weekend TDKR (4.704x): $44.7M weekend INCEP (4.99x): $47.4M weekend DUNK (5.124x): $48.7M weekend Needs at least $10M for Thursday to have a shot at $50M on the weekend, but that is only following Inception & Dunkirk type of performance. A $10M Thursday would be $45-47M weekend with TDK or TDKR performance. Yeah, but Oppy already has a different behaviour than Dunkirk. And, as I understand BO pattern in 2010 and now a little bit (and sometimes a lot) different (again), if we're talking about Inception. So I'm not sure if we can take previous Nolan's movies as example. P.S. just to be clear: i can believe in 45-47 mln weekend but I also think there's a very good chance for 50+ mln result. Edited July 27, 2023 by KeepItU25071906 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChipDerby Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 What's funny is those BoxOffice predictions of $88 mil and $50 mil would've both been really good numbers for their respective opening weekends. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Just now, MrPink said: TDKR also burned off like, twice as much demand as Oppenheimer did and basically had a ton of screens to itself for the first couple weeks. The situation feels completely different here, and we're not even getting to reception. Just saying, 50m still seems very much plausible to me. TDKR definitely had a much better screen count to help meet demand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, ChipDerby said: What's funny is those BoxOffice predictions of $88 mil and $50 mil would've both been really good numbers for their respective opening weekends. Those were indeed within the range of the early predictions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheFlatLannister Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 49 minutes ago, eddyxx said: Isn’t that secret wars Should be, but 10 years isn't enough time to really build up a strong sense of nostalgia. The late 2030s would work better for a nostalgic secret wars film. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 ELEMENTAL still at number 5. What a turnaround. 😭 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mango Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 I think Oppy can do $50m. The comps to Nolan’s other films are important, but I think one factor that might give it a boost compared to them is films like Oppenheimer generally have much better Friday/Saturday boosts. 3 hours, more limited screens, R-rating (though that last one is the least of the factors imo) Wouldn’t be surprised if it has a decently better Friday (or at least Saturday) jump than Inception or other Nolan outings. Either way it’s all gravy at this point. Even with the Nolan name, on paper this seemed like $60m opening at best. The second weekend predictions are basically what every outlet had its opening weekend doing a few weeks back. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 1 minute ago, Mango said: I think Oppy can do $50m. The comps to Nolan’s other films are important, but I think one factor that might give it a boost compared to them is films like Oppenheimer generally have much better Friday/Saturday boosts. 3 hours, more limited screens, R-rating (though that last one is the least of the factors imo) Wouldn’t be surprised if it has a decently better Friday (or at least Saturday) jump than Inception or other Nolan outings. Either way it’s all gravy at this point. Even with the Nolan name, on paper this seemed like $60m opening at best. The second weekend predictions are basically what every outlet had its opening weekend doing a few weeks back. Hell, that Quroum tracking data just a couple days before release said there was a decent chance the movie would open below $40M. The fact it’s locked to make above $40M on the 2nd weekend is awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 TDKR is a terrible comp for Oppy. I am confident Oppy will hit 50m this weekend. its a 3 hour movie targeting older adults who will come in over the weekend. It has sufficient show times for 50m as its not that far off last weekened. Plus it has sold out most of the imax shows over the weekend in big markets/big screens. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Barbie: 20.7M (-10%) 26.9M (+30%) 37.7M (+40%) 30.2M (-20%) 94.8M Weekend, 42% drop We'll see how big the Fri/Sat increases end up being, but even with some weekday frontloading, a low to mid 40s drop with Dolby losses is fantastic for something this scale. Oppenheimer: 10.4M (-3%) 15.6M (+50%) 23.4M (+50%) 17.5M (-25%) 56.5M Weekend, 32% drop Even if Oppenheimer's Friday is only a 30-40% increase, it's still looking at a 42-43% drop at worst. I don't see how the weekend would fall below 48M without a disappointing Friday (+10-20%) or Saturday (+20-30%). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mango Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said: Barbie: 20.7M (-10%) 26.9M (+30%) 37.7M (+40%) 30.2M (-20%) 94.8M Weekend, 42% drop We'll see how big the Fri/Sat increases end up being, but even with some weekday frontloading, a low to mid 40s drop with Dolby losses is fantastic for something this scale. Oppenheimer: 10.4M (-3%) 15.6M (+50%) 23.4M (+50%) 17.5M (-25%) 56.5M Weekend, 32% drop Even if Oppenheimer's Friday is only a 30-40% increase, it's still looking at a 42-43% drop at worst. I don't see how the weekend would fall below 48M without a disappointing Friday (+10-20%) or Saturday (+20-30%). Those are some hefty Saturday jumps, though I think your Friday’s for both might be low 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Did you guys not read what he said about Barbie and then openheimer? For Barb he said good luck figuring out a number but he'll be conservative and go with I think it was 20 million and then for Oppenheimer he said it's a super early number. This is all extrapolation and guesses right now. When he posted that number it was like 2:00 p.m. eastern time. It could go up it could go down it could be bang on but he certainly not saying that that's going to be the number 100%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ororo Munroe Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Gitesh might not actually be that far off if Fri/Sat jumps are on the softer side. Not impossible especially as Barbie has been stronger than expected on weekdays. Could see the effects of that on the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 7 minutes ago, Ororo Munroe said: Gitesh might not actually be that far off if Fri/Sat jumps are on the softer side. Not impossible especially as Barbie has been stronger than expected on weekdays. Could see the effects of that on the weekend. That’s what happened with TDK. Huge spillover into massive weekdays. 2nd weekend showed signs of losing steam. But that’s a superhero movie. Barbie might be able to overcome that type of frontloading. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Train Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 80m would be a good second weekend. It's summer so second weekend drops are usually bad. Anything above 90 would be insane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamblinRed Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Elemental after a big jump yesterday had a nice hold for Wednesday, has been ahead of Indy the past 2 days. Could Elemental end up ahead of MI:7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
