The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

Tinalera · July 6, 2023

11 hours ago, DAJK said:

I’ll tell ya right now, there are quite a few locations that don’t have higher ticket sales for Barbie simply because they’re sold out, and aren’t adding more screens.

Im honestly trying to think of the last non MCU-Disney/Universal tentpole that was doing this well presales in Canada two weeks out.

katnisscinnaplex · July 6, 2023

Santikos Tracking

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold
T-0	Insidious 5	PLF	15	1,025	1,025	3,072	33.37%
		Standard	42	1,758	1,758	5,360	32.80%
	Total		57	2,783	2,783	8,432	33.01%

T-0 comps

- Nope - 2.19x (14.01m)

- Halloween Ends - 1.295x (6.99m)

- Black Phone - 3.691x (9.6m)

Disclaimer: this run was taken much later than normal, but this is an excellent sign for walkups!

abracadabra1998 · July 6, 2023

20 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

Joy Ride (T-1):

Day: T-1, T-0 Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Thursday: 19 theaters 61 40 145 5359 2.71
Wednesday EA: 18 theaters 18 67 133 1711 7.77
TOTALS: 79 107 278 7070 3.93

Growth Rate (%):

1-Day:

62.57

3-Day:

150.45

Comp:

0.85x No Hard Feelings: 1.83 Million (Just Thursday for both)

This keeps gaining ground on NHF (3-day growth rate for that was 110.91%). But that truly exploded in its last 24 hours. I'll give a final update and prediction at T-1 hour tomorrow

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

Joy Ride (T-1 hour):

Day: T-0	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 19 theaters	61	81	226	5359	4.22

Growth Rate (%):

1-Day:	55.86

3-Day:	227.54

Comp:

0.67x No Hard Feelings: 1.43 Million (Just Thursday)

As expected, it slowed down a lot more compared to No Hard Feelings (for comparison, its final day growth rate was more than double, 112%). The Twin Cities has a bit higher concentration of Asians/Asian-Americans than the US national average, and I'm sure this won't play super well outside of bigger cities. I'll put my final prediction at $1 Million

Edited July 6, 2023 by abracadabra1998
Typo

vafrow · July 6, 2023

1 hour ago, Tinalera said:

Im honestly trying to think of the last non MCU-Disney/Universal tentpole that was doing this well presales in Canada two weeks out.

For me, it's tracking behind ATSV. Not by a lot, but, notable enough.

However, from what I'm seeing generally, this is running stronger in urban centres than suburbs, and ATSV was the opposite.

I also think the biggest factor going for Barbie is that it seems well positioned to have a great final week and walk ups.

el sid · July 6, 2023

Insidious: The Red Door counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 260 (6 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 76 (8 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 2 (8 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): no showtimes
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 29 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 63 (9 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 430 (12 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 860.

Comps (all films counted on Thursday of the release week for Friday): The Invitation (6.8M OW) had 204 sold tickets,
Prey for the Devil (7.2M) had 262,
Barbarian (10.5M) had 249,
Smile (22.6M) had 549,
Scream VI (44.4M) had 1.562,

M3gan (30.4M) had 752,
Old (16.9M) had 500,
HK (49.4M) had 1.575
and The Boogeyman (12.4M) had 193 sold tickets.

The comps point to more than 25M OW so I just say 25M+ OW.

Edited July 6, 2023 by el sid

Issac Newton · July 6, 2023

TheFlatLannister · July 6, 2023

2 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

INSIDIOUS: THE RED DOOR

THURSDAY Previews

T-0 *1:00PM CHECK

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

109

1127

17953

6.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 1:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

360

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

0

COMPS

T-0

(2.444x) of BOOGEYMAN

~$2.7M THUR Previews

(3.659x) of THE BLACKENING

~$2.7M THUR Previews

COMP AVG: $2.7M

I will have the final update up at 4 PM

Should be at $3M+ by then

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

INSIDIOUS: THE RED DOOR

THURSDAY Previews

T-0 *4:00PM Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
109	1491	17953	8.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 4:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

364

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

0

COMPS

T-0

(3.324x) of BOOGEYMAN

~$3.6M THUR Previews

(4.841x) of THE BLACKENING

~$3.6M THUR Previews

COMP AVG: $3.6M

Excellent final day. This is a great sign for walkups throughout the weekend. I'll go with $3M-$3.5M and high $20Ms with a chance at $30M+ OW

tonytr87 · July 6, 2023

52 minutes ago, vafrow said:

For me, it's tracking behind ATSV. Not by a lot, but, notable enough.

However, from what I'm seeing generally, this is running stronger in urban centres than suburbs, and ATSV was the opposite.

I also think the biggest factor going for Barbie is that it seems well positioned to have a great final week and walk ups.

That's more than a little peculiar. This oughta be catnip for suburban parents/kids.

abracadabra1998 · July 6, 2023

22 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

Insidious: Red Door (T-1):

Day: T-1 Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Totals: 18 theaters 64 110 407 7299 5.58

Growth Rate (%):

1-Day:

37.04

3-Day:

152.8

Comps:

0.48x Smile: 955k

4.37x The Invitation: 3.38 Million

2.87x Beast: 2.65 Million

3.1x Barbarian: 2.635 Million

Average: 2.4 Million

This number went down because The Invitation comp dropped a ton; this is more because The Invitation number was so low, so its growth rate was higher. Every other comp went up though. Looking at other numbers, I'm going to guess this will do around 2.8-3 Million in previews. I'll give a T-1 hour update tomorrow.

Minneapolis-St Paul Area Previews:

Insidious: Red Door (T-1 hour):

Day: T-0	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	63	772	1179	7152	16.48

Growth Rate (%):

1-Day:	189.68

3-Day:	520.53

Yeah... the horror final day run is real, nearly tripling its T-1 numbers. Don't have T-0 numbers from last year, but just wanted to show what other trackers are showing, that it's having an insane final day. Over $3 million previews for sure.

M37 · July 6, 2023

On 7/4/2023 at 7:37 AM, M37 said:

Noted this before, but wouldn't get too down on Insidious 5 just yet, think it will finish strong. Along with holiday mucking up sales patterns, will likely benefit from a starved audience (only 2nd horror release since start of May), plus frankly a bit of dead zone recently for the younger & diverse audience since Transformers and somewhat Flash, with only Elemental, NHF & Asteroid, and now Indy as new releases, with older & whiter skewing MI7 the following week. Could do well even if by default (see previously: M3GAN)

Preview value has been rising vs the larger set of comps Katniss has - $1.9-->$2.19 vs Black Phone (T-6) & $1.67-->$2.54 vs Nope (T-4) - and won't be at all surprised if we see a similar outcome as Black Phone's $3M Thur/$23M OW

Happy Gilmore Win GIF

Horror opening coming off a holiday = low presales & big walk-ups

[even more than usual late breaking for this genre]

vafrow · July 6, 2023

22 minutes ago, tonytr87 said:

That's more than a little peculiar. This oughta be catnip for suburban parents/kids.

Maybe it'll run better on the weekends. But, this also hits the downtown urban 20 something pretty well.

I wanted to do more than eyeball, so I did a rough count comparing Toronto proper (population of around 3 million) compared to the western suburb cities (Peel and Halton region, total population of around 2 million). Emphasis on rough count, doing a rough tally in my head.

There's about 700 tickets sold for Peel/Halton region. Around 1500 for Toronto proper. This is all for Thursday evening.

The flagship theatre downtown Toronto (Scotiabank theatre) has over 500 tickets sold alone. Notably, it's only in one auditorium currently as well for that theatre, but, it's a 550 seater.

I didn't track anything formally, but, ATSV was weaker in this theatre than what I saw in the suburbs, as well as other big downtown theatres.

Inceptionzq · July 6, 2023

On 7/5/2023 at 3:30 PM, Inceptionzq said:

MI: Dead Reckoning Part 1 Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 181 2036 8.89%
AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 291 2479 11.74%

Sunday: 77(+16)

Monday: 582(+29)

Tuesday:

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
839 70 22539 3.72% 13 111

1.443 Indiana Jones T-6 10.39M
0.505 JW Dominion T-6 9.09M
1.543 NTTD T-6 9.61M

MI: Dead Reckoning Part 1 Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

191

2036

9.38%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

309

2479

12.46%

Sunday: 98(+21)

Monday: 608(+26)

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
918	79	22757	4.03%	13	112

0.627

AtSV T-5

10.88M

0.397

Avatar 2 T-5

6.76M

1.491

NTTD T-5

9.29M

Inceptionzq · July 6, 2023

On 7/5/2023 at 3:32 PM, Inceptionzq said:

MI: Dead Reckoning Part 1 Alamo Drafthouse

T-6 Tuesday 148 Showings 2998 +234 22274 ATP: 8.62
0.447 JW Dominion T-6 8.05M

T-7 Wednesday 191 Showings 1359 +233 29191 ATP: 16.79

T-8 Thursday 159 Showings 1122 +98 25518 ATP: 16.44

T-9 Friday 144 Showings 1711 +123 23264 ATP: 16.66
0.244 Avatar 2 T-9 8.82M

T-10 Saturday 145 Showings 2030 +145 23847 ATP: 16.19
0.252 Avatar 2 T-10 11.18M

MI: Dead Reckoning Part 1 Alamo Drafthouse

T-5 Tuesday

149 Showings

3415

+417

22317

ATP:

8.61

0.448	AtSV T-5	7.77M
0.499	Avatar 2 T-5	8.48M

T-6 Wednesday

191 Showings

1593

+234

29137

ATP:

16.70

T-7 Thursday

159 Showings

1263

+141

25512

ATP:

16.41

T-8 Friday

144 Showings

1858

+147

23256

ATP:

16.67

0.331	AtSV T-8	11.41M
0.249	Avatar 2 T-8	9.03M

T-9 Saturday

145 Showings

2241

+211

23839

ATP:

16.18

0.423	AtSV T-9	15.82M
0.264	Avatar 2 T-9	11.71M

Inceptionzq · July 6, 2023

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

MI: Dead Reckoning Part 1 Emagine Entertainment

T-5 Monday 7 Showings 272 +30 1601
T-6 Tuesday 194 Showings 937 +141 28642
1.044 Indiana Jones T-6 7.52M
0.535 AtSV T-6 9.28M

T-7 Wednesday 274 Showings 277 +51 38283

T-8 Thursday 236 Showings 191 +41 34773

T-9 Friday 205 Showings 348 +54 32371
0.404 Indiana Jones T-9 6.78M
0.198 AtSV T-9 6.82M

T-10 Saturday 203 Showings 336 +47 32116
0.724 Indiana Jones T-10 13.45M
0.357 AtSV T-10 13.37M

MI: Dead Reckoning Part 1 Emagine Entertainment

T-4 Monday	7 Showings	313	+41	1602
T-5 Tuesday	197 Showings	1100	+163	28906

0.575

AtSV T-5

9.98M

T-6 Wednesday

284 Showings

364

+87

39172

T-7 Thursday

240 Showings

218

+27

35129

T-8 Friday

205 Showings

403

+55

32416

0.418	Indiana Jones T-8	7.02M
0.202	AtSV T-8	6.96M

T-9 Saturday

200 Showings

385

+49

31834

0.756	Indiana Jones T-9	14.05M
0.362	AtSV T-9	13.55M

kayumanggi · July 6, 2023

katnisscinnaplex · July 6, 2023

7 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Insidious 5 T-0 Jax 5 30 125 264 3,061 8.62%
Phx 6 25 172 422 3,578 11.79%
Ral 8 32 176 335 3,454 9.70%
Total 19 87 473 1,021 10,093 10.12%
Joy Ride T-0 Jax 5 22 7 30 1,933 1.55%
Phx 7 26 7 39 2,322 1.68%
Ral 7 24 14 36 2,099 1.72%
Total 19 72 28 105 6,354 1.65%

Joy Ride (Total) T-0 comps

- Cocaine Bear - .492x (985k)

- 80 for Brady - 1x (750k)

- Easter Sunday - 2.34x (1.17m)

- Violent Night - 1.098x (1.21m)

- No Hard Feelings - .662x (1.22m)

Size adjusted average - 1.05m

New model forecast - 937k

These are pretty inflated by the EA shows (187 tickets sold). Here are the Thursday-only comps

Joy Ride (Thu) T-0 comps

- Cocaine Bear - .177x (354k)

- 80 for Brady - .36x (270k)

- Easter Sunday - .84x (420k)

- Violent Night - .395x (434k)

- No Hard Feelings - .238x (440k)

I'll go with 450k for true previews and maybe 400k for EA? Not great, but maybe it surprises.

Insidious 5 T-0 comps

- Black Phone (Total) - 1.232x (3.69m)

- Scream VI - .534x (3.04m)

- Nope - .515x (3.29m)

- M3GAN - 1.674x (4.6m)

- Halloween Ends - .711x (3.84m)

- Knock at the Cabin - 2.77x (4.02m)

- Candyman - 1.975x (3.75m)

- Halloween Kills - .563x (2.73m)

- Resident Evil - 3.36x (3.14m)

Size adjusted average - 3.47m

New model forecast - 4.06m

Last day growth for Insidious (86.3%) was higher than any of the comps. In descending order...

M3GAN - 82.63%

Candyman - 75.85%

Resident Evil - 65.22%

Knock at the Cabin - 47.2%

Everything else is under 45%

If this is any indication of walkups I feel pretty good about this getting up to 3.75m. Huge increase from yesterday's forecast.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Insidious 5	1-Hr	Jax	5	30	291	555	3,061	18.13%
		Phx	6	25	186	608	3,578	16.99%
		Ral	8	32	279	614	3,454	17.78%
	Total		19	87	756	1,777	10,093	17.61%
Joy Ride	1-Hr	Jax	5	22	20	50	1,933	2.59%
		Phx	7	26	35	74	2,322	3.19%
		Ral	7	24	41	77	2,099	3.67%
	Total		19	72	96	201	6,354	3.16%

Joy Ride (Thu) T-1 hr comps

- Cocaine Bear - missed

- 80 for Brady - missed

- Easter Sunday - 1.241x (620k)

- Violent Night - .475x (523k)

- No Hard Feelings - .23x (426k)

All comedy movies - 435k

All 3pm movies - 398k

All R movies - 461k

All movies - 428k

I'm sticking with 450k for true previews and 400k for EA. EA was pretty widespread with nearly as many theaters as normal previews, though with only one show each for most.

Insidious 5 T-1 hr comps

- Black Phone (Thu) - 1.544x (4.01m)

- Scream VI - .719x (4.1m)

- Nope - .612x (3.91m)

- M3GAN - 1.599x (4.4m)

- Halloween Ends - missed

- Knock at the Cabin - missed

- Candyman - 1.911x (3.63m)

- Halloween Kills - .713x (3.46m)

- Resident Evil - 4.71x (4.41m)

All horror movies - 4.33m

All 4pm movies - 3.65m

All movies - 3.79m

Size adjusted average - 3.91m

New model forecast - 4.43m

Pretty incredible how fast this turned up. On Monday there were only 324 tickets sold in my regions! I'm all aboard the 4m train now. That would be more than double what the previous installment made.

kayumanggi · July 6, 2023

Inceptionzq · July 6, 2023

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Oppenheimer Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 423 1008 41.96%
AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 263 1165 22.58%

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
1271 58 9314 13.65% 13 46

1.753 Indiana Jones T-15 12.62M
0.689 JW Dominion T-15 12.39M

Oppenheimer Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

442

1008

43.85%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

286

1165

24.55%

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1338	67	9271	14.43%	13	46

1.796

Indiana Jones T-14

12.93M

Inceptionzq · July 6, 2023

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Oppenheimer Alamo Drafthouse

T-15 Thursday 83 Showings 4035 +104 12331 ATP: 17.26
0.898 Indiana Jones T-15 6.47M

T-16 Friday 134 Showings 4148 +178 20040 ATP: 16.40
1.069 Indiana Jones T-16 17.95M

T-17 Saturday 132 Showings 5088 +206 20227 ATP: 16.66
1.354 Indiana Jones T-17 25.16M

T-18 Sunday 123 Showings 3114 +192 19360 ATP: 16.66
1.577 Indiana Jones T-18 28.54M

Oppenheimer Alamo Drafthouse

T-14 Thursday

83 Showings

4196

+161

12329

ATP:

17.22

0.909

Indiana Jones T-14

6.54M

T-15 Friday

134 Showings

4374

+226

19811

ATP:

16.32

1.088

Indiana Jones T-15

18.27M

T-16 Saturday

132 Showings

5363

+275

20221

ATP:

16.60

1.379

Indiana Jones T-16

25.63M

T-17 Sunday

123 Showings

3328

+214

19354

ATP:

16.65

1.595

Indiana Jones T-17

28.88M

Inceptionzq · July 6, 2023

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Oppenheimer Emagine Entertainment

T-15 Thursday 77 Showings 811 +32 11965
0.892 Indiana Jones T-15 6.42M

T-16 Friday 139 Showings 747 +62 19456
1.620 Indiana Jones T-16 27.22M

T-17 Saturday 139 Showings 510 +66 19453
1.977 Indiana Jones T-17 36.73M

T-18 Sunday 135 Showings 250 +14 18979
2.336 Indiana Jones T-18 42.29M

Oppenheimer Emagine Entertainment

T-14 Thursday

77 Showings

867

+56

11965

0.943

Indiana Jones T-14

6.79M

T-15 Friday

139 Showings

823

+76

19456

1.636

Indiana Jones T-15

27.49M

T-16 Saturday

139 Showings

546

+36

19453

2.060

Indiana Jones T-16

38.28M

T-17 Sunday

135 Showings

288

+38

18979

2.420

Indiana Jones T-17

43.81M

Day: T-1, T-0	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 19 theaters	61	40	145	5359	2.71
Wednesday EA: 18 theaters	18	67	133	1711	7.77
TOTALS:	79	107	278	7070	3.93

Day: T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	64	110	407	7299	5.58

T-5 Monday	7 Showings	272	+30	1601
T-6 Tuesday	194 Showings	937	+141	28642

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