The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Inceptionzq]

On 7/4/2023 at 2:50 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Barbie Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

149

839

17.76%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

154

789

19.52%

 

Wednesday: 758(+15)

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
838	74	11275	7.43%	13	71

 

0.889

JW Dominion T-16

16.00M

Barbie Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

157

839

18.71%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

180

789

22.81%

 

Wednesday: 774(+16)

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
941	103	11318	8.31%	13	71

 

1.13

AtSV T-15

19.58M

0.929

JW Dominion T-15

16.72M

[Inceptionzq]

On 7/4/2023 at 2:52 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Barbie Alamo Drafthouse

T-15 Wednesday	15 Showings	1906	+1	1914	ATP:	19.63
T-16 Thursday	142 Showings	10311	+300	18277	ATP:	16.31

0.782

Doctor Strange 2 T-16

28.17M

 

T-17 Friday

193 Showings

11244

+361

25723

ATP:

15.12

0.849

Doctor Strange 2 T-17

46.48M

 

T-18 Saturday

194 Showings

12063

+400

26356

ATP:

14.73

0.880

Doctor Strange 2 T-18

50.89M

 

T-19 Sunday

182 Showings

8641

+358

24134

ATP:

14.67

1.338

Doctor Strange 2 T-19

52.03M

Barbie Alamo Drafthouse

T-14 Wednesday	15 Showings	1906	+0	1914	ATP:	19.63
T-15 Thursday	142 Showings	10642	+331	18277	ATP:	16.25

0.794

Doctor Strange 2 T-15

28.58M

 

T-16 Friday

193 Showings

11587

+343

25723

ATP:

15.09

0.854

Doctor Strange 2 T-16

46.73M

 

T-17 Saturday

194 Showings

12432

+369

26356

ATP:

14.72

0.880

Doctor Strange 2 T-17

50.87M

 

T-18 Sunday

182 Showings

9015

+374

24134

ATP:

14.63

1.358

Doctor Strange 2 T-18

52.83M

[Inceptionzq]

On 7/4/2023 at 2:52 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Barbie Emagine Entertainment

T-15 Wednesday	4 Showings	445	-2	518
T-16 Thursday	89 Showings	1350	+104	10950

 

T-17 Friday

128 Showings

1535

+192

16940

 

T-18 Saturday

129 Showings

675

+68

17025

 

T-19 Sunday

134 Showings

234

+27

17236

Barbie Emagine Entertainment

T-14 Wednesday	4 Showings	454	+9	518
T-15 Thursday	89 Showings	1495	+145	10953

 

T-16 Friday

128 Showings

1766

+231

16940

 

T-17 Saturday

129 Showings

813

+138

17025

 

T-18 Sunday

134 Showings

303

+69

17236

[M37]

On 7/2/2023 at 9:15 AM, M37 said:

MI7 T-10 Preview Update

Will start by saying that a Tuesday release in general mucks up comparisons, because T-X days are no longer the same day of the week, and then you add in a full PLF run EA day and another smaller EA show set, plus some discount Tuesday pricing, oh and a major holiday that disrupts sales patterns? Yeah, precision will be lacking here, so take all analysis with a grain of salt, as a best guess with much higher uncertainty than usual

 

With the preface out of the way, how are things looking? Generally, seem to be on track for ~$7.5-$8M total previews (all 3 days), before adjusting the actual $ value for the Tuesday discounts:

 

However, a fairly big width in comp values, a bit of a choose your own adventure:

• Indy 5 comps are mostly hovering around $6M
• The few for John Wick (and ATSV) are over $8M
• Alpha is high for all comps, over $10M

Overall, expect that Alpha is overindexing at present due to EA shows and will come back to the pack over time, and MI7 to play not quite as old as Indy, and those comps to come up with better pace/walk-ups at the end. But it will be very difficult to get a sense of pace and project forward, because of the July 4th holiday effect and then heading right into the weekend before a Sun/Mon/Tue show rollout. Anything from like $6M-$10M is possible based on the spread of comps, will have to see if/how the average moves over time

Updated with all T-7 numbers.

Note: averages may include additional values not shown on graph

 

Can see the uptick yesterday in a few samples and the average, and as mentioned up thread, I expect that to trajectory continue for a couple days before potentially dipping back down over the weekend. Still thinking around $8M previews ($7-$9M) based on admissions, before adjusting the actual $ value down by some % for Tuesday Discounts

 

The T-7 mark is usually when I roll out the Forecast Matrix, but given the extended preview days and opening, going to forego that exercise for this release. Did do some mathing previously about a potential IM, and mostly still in line with that, so in a roughly $75M - $100M 5-day range, though can certainly argue that up or even down by like $10M or so. But that would put the 3-day OW in line with basically every other Mission Impossible release - so nothing too surprising, just remarkable consistency and audience retention over time

[excel1]

I am surprised the MI films haven't GROWN though. Every film since Ghost Protocol has been straight up awesome.

[ChipDerby]

4 minutes ago, excel1 said:

I am surprised the MI films haven't GROWN though. Every film since Ghost Protocol has been straight up awesome.

 

I'd imagine because of the age of the series, everyone who is interested in it, has already been reached. Yeah you can draw in some casuals every once in a while, but it's got an audience that's been around for 20+ years.

[GOGODanca]

action franchises like bond,mi, and wick and f&f have ceilings especially domestically, 300m is a damn near miracle, only 2 of the movies from those franchises ever did it and one of them was due to a tragedy boosting the series box office

[M37]

11 minutes ago, excel1 said:

I am surprised the MI films haven't GROWN though. Every film since Ghost Protocol has been straight up awesome.

In fairness, the series probably has. There's always going to be some natural attrition, but yet has largely managed to draw in new viewers to replace the old ones (Though the OW $ value does include some ATP increases over time and so is technically smaller for same total)

 

I guess the real Mission Impossible is having an OW other than $45-$62M (without a weird IMAX exclusive week)

[abracadabra1998]

22 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Twin Cities Previews:

 

Insidious: Red Door (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	64	107	297	7299	4.07

 

Comps:

0.42x Smile: 840k

8.2x The Invitation: 6.37 Million

2.84x Beast: 2.63 Million

3.04x Barbarian: 2.58 Million

 

Average: 3.1 Million

 

Joy Ride (T-2):

Day: T-3, T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 19 theaters	61	36	105	5359	1.96
Wednesday EA: 17 theaters	17	10	66	1635	4.04
TOTALS:	78	46	171	6994	2.44

 

Comp: 

0.76x No Hard Feelings: 1.64 Million (Just Thursday for both)

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Insidious: Red Door (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	64	110	407	7299	5.58

 

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	37.04
3-Day:	152.8

 

Comps:

0.48x Smile: 955k

4.37x The Invitation: 3.38 Million

2.87x Beast: 2.65 Million

3.1x Barbarian: 2.635 Million

 

Average: 2.4 Million

 

This number went down because The Invitation comp dropped a ton; this is more because The Invitation number was so low, so its growth rate was higher. Every other comp went up though. Looking at other numbers, I'm going to guess this will do around 2.8-3 Million in previews. I'll give a T-1 hour update tomorrow.

 

Joy Ride (T-1):

Day: T-1, T-0	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 19 theaters	61	40	145	5359	2.71
Wednesday EA: 18 theaters	18	67	133	1711	7.77
TOTALS:	79	107	278	7070	3.93

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	62.57
3-Day:	150.45

 

Comp: 

0.85x No Hard Feelings: 1.83 Million (Just Thursday for both)

 

This keeps gaining ground on NHF (3-day growth rate for that was 110.91%). But that truly exploded in its last 24 hours. I'll give a final update and prediction at T-1 hour tomorrow

Edited July 5, 2023 by abracadabra1998

[Austin]

11 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

action franchises like bond,mi, and wick and f&f have ceilings especially domestically, 300m is a damn near miracle, only 2 of the movies from those franchises ever did it and one of them was due to a tragedy boosting the series box office

Okay, on that F&F point, the 9th one had no Paul Walker and still managed $1.2B. Unless you are just talking straight domestic than it kinda was a steeper drop. Not to mention the reception being worse than Furious 7.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/4/2023 at 6:23 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

 

INSIDIOUS: THE RED DOOR

 

THURSDAY

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
102	572	16628	3.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

88

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

3

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(1.749x) of BOOGEYMAN

~$1.9M THUR Previews

 

(2.689x) of THE BLACKENING 

~$2.0M THUR Previews

 

COMP AVG: $2M

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

 

INSIDIOUS: THE RED DOOR

 

THURSDAY

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
109	767	17953	4.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

195

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

7

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(1.890x) of BOOGEYMAN

~$2.1M THUR Previews

 

(3.093x) of THE BLACKENING 

~$2.3M THUR Previews

 

COMP AVG: $2.2M

 

Great day locally. Probably headed for $2.5M+

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/4/2023 at 6:25 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

OPPENHEIMER

 

THURSDAY previews

 

T-16

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
96	1303	17427	7.5%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

83

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-16

 

(0.927x) of Fast X

~$7.0M THUR Previews

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

OPPENHEIMER

 

THURSDAY previews

 

T-15

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
96	1351	17427	7.8%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

48

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-15

 

(0.949x) of Fast X

~$7.1M THUR Previews

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/4/2023 at 6:30 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One

 

Tuesday

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
212	1532	43522	3.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

273

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

 

EA

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
11	613	2148	28.5%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

9

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

 

Mi7 Walmart+ Special 

 

MTC1 = 49 sold / 291 seats  (+12)

MTC2 = 36 sold / 114 seats  (+0)

 

COMPS

T-7

*Excludes any EA

 

(0.900x) of RoTB

~$7.9M TUES

 

(0.863x) of FAST X

~$6.5M TUES

 

COMP AVG: $7.2M TUES

 

This is more like it, finally accelerating. Increased against every comp

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One

 

Tuesday

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
212	1601	43522	3.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

69

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

 

EA

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
11	641	2148	29.8%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

28

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

 

Mi7 Walmart+ Special 

 

MTC1 = 55 sold / 291 seats  (+6)

MTC2 = 39 sold / 114 seats  (+3)

 

COMPS

T-6

*Excludes any EA

 

(0.878x) of RoTB

~$7.7M TUES

 

(0.877x) of FAST X

~$6.6M TUES

 

COMP AVG: $7.2M TUES

 

No apparent review bump. Maybe tomorrow. 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/4/2023 at 6:38 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Barbie

 

Thursday

 

T-17

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
177	2513	31835	7.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

167

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

46

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

 

EA

T-16

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
9	1404	1747	80.3%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

8

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

6

 

 

COMPS

T-17

*Excludes any EA

 

(2.111x) of RoTB

~$18.6M THUR Previews

 

(1.789x) of Fast X

~$13.4M THUR Previews

 

(0.859x) of ATSV

~$14.9M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $15.6M THUR Previews 

 

Barring a disastrous final week, I don't see Barbie going below $12M previews 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Barbie

 

Thursday

 

T-16

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
177	2656	31835	8.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

143

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

 

EA

T-15

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
9	1409	1747	80.6%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

6

 

 

COMPS

T-16

*Excludes any EA

 

(2.152x) of RoTB

~$18.9M THUR Previews

 

(1.865x) of Fast X

~$14.0M THUR Previews

 

(0.884x) of ATSV

~$15.3M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $16.1M THUR Previews 

 

Comps still on the uptick 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/4/2023 at 6:41 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

HAUNTED MANSION

 

THURSDAY

 

T-23

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
111	990	19452	5.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

12

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-23

 

(0.514x) of TLM

~$5.3M THUR Previews

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

HAUNTED MANSION

 

THURSDAY

 

T-22

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
111	1007	19452	5.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

17

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-22

 

(0.509x) of TLM

~$5.2M THUR Previews

[Austin]

31 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

No apparent review bump. Maybe tomorrow.

Reviews came out Wednesday (today) so that would make sense.

Edited July 5, 2023 by Austin

[filmlover]

Film	Studio	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, July 9	Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed)	3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny	Disney / Lucasfilm	$28,600,000	$125,800,000	~4,600	-53%
Insidious: The Red Door	Sony Pictures / Screen Gems	$24,100,000	$24,100,000	~3,000	NEW
Sound of Freedom	Angel Studios	$8,900,000	$25,600,000	~2,600	NEW
Joy Ride	Lionsgate	$8,400,000	$8,400,000	~2,700	NEW
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse	Sony / Columbia Pictures	$8,000,000	$357,300,000	~3,200	-33%
Elemental	Walt Disney Pictures / Pixar	$7,400,000	$104,700,000	~3,500	-39%
No Hard Feelings	Sony / Columbia Pictures	$4,500,000	$39,800,000	~2,700	-43%
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts	Paramount Pictures	$4,500,000	$146,100,000	~2,600	-39%
The Little Mermaid (2023)	Walt Disney Pictures	$3,600,000	$288,700,000	~2,200	-33%
Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken	Universal / DreamWorks Animation	$2,600,000	$11,200,000	~3,400	-53%

 

Weekend Box Office Forecast: INSIDIOUS: THE RED DOOR, JOY RIDE, and SOUND OF FREEDOM Debut as INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY Looks to Repeat at #1 - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

 

Deadline is also projecting $23M for Insidious, $7-9M for Joy Ride.

 

Box Office: ‘Sound of Freedom’ Battles ‘Indiana Jones’ On July 4th – Deadline

[Bob Train]

Gillman's gonna lose 2000 theaters in it's 3rd week

[filmlover]

Joy Ride is having another round of sneaks tonight in addition to the ones last Saturday. Imagine these will inflate the numbers for the overall weekend a bit (sales are looking pretty anemic for the weekend near me).

[M37]

Barbie T-16.5 Preview Update

 

Let me preface this first update by saying that I went ahead and excluded several comps that were over the top end of the scale on the chart - anything from Drafthouse [where ATSV and JWD have been comping around $53M !!!], as well as a few others (like Orlando vs Fast X = ~$32M). Also, the EA shows, while not PLF, may still inflate these values depending on how much relative capacity was allocated in each sample [I may go back and just pull Thursday only numbers]

 

With those caveats out of the way, I'm not sure there is much else to say, so here it is:

Spoiler

 

Let me know if the background color is distracting and/or makes graph more difficult to read

 

So many comps are still pushing higher, 3 weeks after tickets first went on sale! The flattest line in that grouping - indicating similar pace - is Sacto vs ATSV ... which is coincidentally right around where the average of this comp set lies. Too early IMO to really set an upper and lower bound, as it hasn't quite hit the bottom of the curve - maybe it never does? - and need at least one more @ZackM Alpha update

 

The absence of PLF (lower ATP) and lack of capacity will be limiting factors, combined with this being a female driven film may, and won't be surprised if we don't see the pace over the home stretch that these comps. But $10M+ preview seems essentially locked, and the ceiling on demand (even is seat supply can't meet it) has yet to be determined