The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vafrow]

7 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Mission Impossible Dead Reckoning Part 1, T-0 Early show close Milton, ON

 

Early shows have closed, and sales are second highest I've seen, not that far off from Mario. Total so far is 472, with ability to increase with the late shows. 

 

3.455x of Fast X for $25.8M

4.252x of T:ROTB for $37.4M

6.742x of Indy 5 for $48.5M

1.392x of ATSV for $24.1M

3.933x of Flash for $38.2M

1.788x of GOTG3 for $31.3M

0.846x of Super Mario for $26.8M

 

I'll give a quick update tonight. I'm now just interested on how much this will overindex here compared to actuals.

 

Final tally was 532 tickets sold, so, 12% more than the early show figures.

 

This has been crazy. This ended up selling slightly less than Mario.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Oppenheimer Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days and counting

 

T-10 Comps:

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	157.68		74	950		0/135	20309/21259	4.47%		3737	40.09%		9.78m
JWD	47.02		192	3186		0/191	22186/25372	12.56%		10966	13.66%		8.46m
BP2	19.16		201	7817		2/295	29214/37031	21.11%		16800	8.92%		5.37m
Ava 2	43.13		162	3473		0/145	18011/21484	16.17%		8986	16.67%		7.33m
Wick 4	107.61		59	1392		0/95	12399/13791	10.09%		5448	27.50%		9.58m
FX	115.41		82	1298		0/178	26412/27710	4.68%		4122	36.34%		8.66m
Indy 5	97.46		114	1537		0/134	19034/20571	7.47%		4767	31.42%		7.02m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Oppenheimer's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:       301/3144  [9.57% sold]
Matinee:          13/81  [16.05% | 0.87% of all tickets sold]
----    
70mm:                 599/776 [+14 tickets] [39.99% of all tickets sold]
All other PLF:    654/4508 [+64 tickets] [43.66% of all tickets sold]
Standard:           245/3550 [+25 tickets] [16.36% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

LOL.  Trick question! It was Oppenhemier having a 100+ seat sold day in spite of Barbie and MI7 beasting out!!!

 

NARRATOR: It was in fact NOT a trick question.

 

(mind this is a very nice result for Oppenheimer, all things considered - just not "Mother of God" worthy)

 

Oppenheimer Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	65	7968	9600	1632	17.00%

 

Total Showings Added Today	8
Total Seats Added Today	766
Total Seats Sold Today	134

 

T-9 Comps:

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	157.23		88	1038		0/142	21077/22115	4.69%		3737	43.67%		9.75m
JWD	48.28		194	3380		0/190	21844/25224	13.40%		10966	14.88%		8.69m
BP2	20.11		300	8117		2/301	29820/37937	21.40%		16800	9.71%		5.63m
Ava 2	44.58		188	3661		0/184	22468/26129	14.01%		8986	18.16%		7.58m
Wick 4	111.55		71	1463		0/109	13836/15299	9.56%		5448	29.96%		9.93m
FX	119.82		64	1362		0/179	26523/27885	4.88%		4122	39.59%		8.99m
Indy 5	100.25		91	1628		0/134	18934/20571	7.91%		4767	34.24%		7.22m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Oppenheimer's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:       328/3144  [10.43% sold]
Matinee:          13/81  [16.05% | 0.80% of all tickets sold]
----    
70mm:                 612/776 [+13 tickets] [37.50% of all tickets sold]
All other PLF:    737/4496 [+83 tickets] [45.16% of all tickets sold]
Standard:           283/4328 [+38 tickets] [17.34% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

It's no Barbie. but all in all not to bad for the weight class.  At least, IMO.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Barbie Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	99	9785	12713	2928	23.03%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

426

 

T-10 Comps:

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TGM	58.12		190	5038		0/259	30895/35933	14.02%		11474	25.52%		11.19m
JWD	91.90		192	3186		0/191	22186/25372	12.56%		10966	26.70%		16.54m
BA	261.20		47	1121		0/148	21302/22423	5.00%		4494	65.15%		19.59m
Ava 2	84.31		162	3473		0/145	18011/21484	16.17%		8986	32.58%		14.33m
Scream 6	362.38		46	808		0/77	8931/9739	8.30%		3134	93.43%		20.66m
Wick 4	210.34		59	1392		0/95	12399/13791	10.09%		5448	53.74%		18.72m
FX	225.58		82	1298		0/178	26412/27710	4.68%		4122	71.03%		16.92m
TLM	146.03		142	2005		0/153	20609/22614	8.87%		6561	44.63%		15.04m
AtSV	121.95		154	2401		0/129	18385/20786	11.55%		9744	30.05%		21.16m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Barbie's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       580/4252  [13.64% sold]
Matinee:    188/1757  [10.70% | 6.42% of all tickets sold]
------------    
Wed:        396/506 [78.26% sold] [+8 tickets sold]
Thr:    2532/12207 [20.74% sold] [+418 tickets sold]

 

====

 

 

 

(It's Barbie's World, and we're just livin' in it)

 

============

 

Actually gonna recheck my theaters in about 15 minutes just to make sure there isn't a major error in my sheets, but after a few spot checks it looks OK so far.

 

Just a fucking fantastic day.

 

One small note.  Did notice that a theater which added a couple of Barbie EA showings a few days ago removed them today.  Fair enough.  Except curiously enough, the original one (and the one with the most sales) was one of the ones removed.

 

A curious enough situation that for now I'm not doing anything in case it's an error one way or the other.

 

Ftr, this is a very small dine-in theater with a max of some 48 seats per auditorium, so the amount of lost sales will be no more than 50 tickets.  But 50 tickets isn't nothing either.  Either way, gonna monitor the situation over the next couple of days and see what happens.

 

Barbie Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	129	12791	16071	3280	20.41%

 

Total Showings Added Today	30
Total Seats Added Today	3358
Total Seats Sold Today	352

 

T-9 Comps:

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TGM	63.02		167	5205		0/268	31810/37015	14.06%		11474	28.59%		12.14m
JWD	97.04		194	3380		0/190	21844/25224	13.40%		10966	29.91%		17.47m
BA	275.17		71	1192		0/152	21769/22961	5.19%		4494	72.99%		20.64m
Ava 2	89.59		188	3661		0/184	22468/26129	14.01%		8986	36.50%		15.23m
Scream 6	385.88		42	850		0/77	8897/9747	8.72%		3134	104.66%		22.00m
Wick 4	224.20		71	1463		0/109	13836/15299	9.56%		5448	60.21%		19.95m
FX	240.82		64	1362		0/179	26523/27885	4.88%		4122	79.57%		18.06m
TLM	153.99		125	2130		0/165	21370/23500	9.06%		6561	49.99%		15.86m
AtSV	126.49		192	2593		0/140	19549/22142	11.71%		9744	33.66%		21.95m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Barbie's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

Regal:       641/4252  [15.08% sold]
Matinee:    232/1814  [12.79% | 7.07% of all tickets sold]
------------    
Wed:        398/506 [78.66% sold] [+2 tickets sold]
Thr:    2882/15565 [18.52% sold] [+350 tickets sold]

 

===

 

74 fewer seats sold than yesterday??!? <@.@>. !!!!

 

[Porthos]

For realz though, just another super impressive day.  Like really super impressive.

 

No coincidence at all that we're starting to see theater expansion, either.

 

NB:  Those 30 added showings?

 

Was from exactly four theaters in the region.

 

FOUR!!!

[Bobzaruni]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Barbie Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	129	12791	16071	3280	20.41%

 

Total Showings Added Today	30
Total Seats Added Today	3358
Total Seats Sold Today	352

 

T-9 Comps:

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TGM	63.02		167	5205		0/268	31810/37015	14.06%		11474	28.59%		12.14m
JWD	97.04		194	3380		0/190	21844/25224	13.40%		10966	29.91%		17.47m
BA	275.17		71	1192		0/152	21769/22961	5.19%		4494	72.99%		20.64m
Ava 2	89.59		188	3661		0/184	22468/26129	14.01%		8986	36.50%		15.23m
Scream 6	385.88		42	850		0/77	8897/9747	8.72%		3134	104.66%		22.00m
Wick 4	224.20		71	1463		0/109	13836/15299	9.56%		5448	60.21%		19.95m
FX	240.82		64	1362		0/179	26523/27885	4.88%		4122	79.57%		18.06m
TLM	153.99		125	2130		0/165	21370/23500	9.06%		6561	49.99%		15.86m
AtSV	126.49		192	2593		0/140	19549/22142	11.71%		9744	33.66%		21.95m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Barbie's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

Regal:       641/4252  [15.08% sold]
Matinee:    232/1814  [12.79% | 7.07% of all tickets sold]
------------    
Wed:        398/506 [78.66% sold] [+2 tickets sold]
Thr:    2882/15565 [18.52% sold] [+350 tickets sold]

 

===

 

74 fewer seats sold than yesterday??!? <@.@>. !!!!

 

I just noticed the total seats are so much lower. 15.5k on Thurs. Are the total seats in the comp table at the end of presales or at T-9?

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, Bobzaruni said:

I just noticed the total seats are so much lower. 15.5k on Thurs. Are the total seats in the comp table at the end of presales or at T-9?

 

I'm not exactly sure which part of the total seats in the comp table you are referring to, sorry.

 

Are you talking about the total number of seats that Barbie  has right now, or some other movie in the comp block?

[Bobzaruni]

16 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I'm not exactly sure which part of the total seats in the comp table you are referring to, sorry.

 

Are you talking about the total number of seats that Barbie  has right now, or some other movie in the comp block?

For all the movies in the comp block, are the 'total seats' on the column next to sellout shows referring to the seats available at T-9 or what they were by T-0?

[Porthos]

15 minutes ago, Bobzaruni said:

For all the movies in the comp block, are the 'total seats' on the column next to sellout shows referring to the seats available at T-9 or what they were by T-0?

 

For those movies at T-9.  The "final sold" column is the final number of seats sold at end of tracking.

 

To give an example:

 

T-9 Comps:

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TGM	63.02		167	5205		0/268	31810/37015	14.06%		11474	28.59%		12.14m
JWD	97.04		194	3380		0/190	21844/25224	13.40%		10966	29.91%		17.47m

 

This means that Barbie has

 

sold 63.02% of the tickets that TGM sold by at T-9 and 97.04% of the tickets JWD did, which in turn spits out comps of 12.14m and 17.47m respectively.

 

The next column states that TGM sold 167 tickets on T-9 while JWD sold 194 tickets, with a total sold amount of tickets of 5205 and 3380 respectively.

 

The next column shows that TGM had 0 sellouts with 268 shows at T-9 while JWD had 0/190.

 

The column next to that shows TGM had 31810 seats available out of a total of 37015 seats, for a percentage of 14.06% sold. while JWD had 21844/25244 and 13.40% sold.

 

The next set of columns say the amount of tickets TGM and JWD sold at the end of tracking, and the percentage that Barbie currently has against it.

 

The final number is the current comp, which states if Barbie continued to have exactly 63% of TGM sales or exactly 97% of JWD sales the rest of the way, it would have those comps listed.

 

Basically, what's in the middle of the comp block is a reworked version of this:

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	129	12791	16071	3280	20.41%

 

and this:

 

Total Seats Sold Today

352

 

of the movie being comped, but in a more compact form so it doesn't take up a ton of screen real estate.

 

Does that help answer your question?

 

Edited July 12, 2023 by Porthos

[reddevil19]

56 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Oppenheimer Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days and counting

 

It's no Barbie. but all in all not to bad for the weight class.  At least, IMO.

It will be interesting to see how the early reactions translate into sales, especially since it's mostly been French critics. If it just slightly picks up the pace then similar reactions domestically could potentially take it to 10 million previews. Which...considering Barbie and the type of movie it is, would be insane for Oppenheimer. My doubts remain about the overall weekend though due to PLF preference and overall number of screens and length. Right now, 8-9 previews and 6 multiplier seems a safe bet though.

 

Also...the sadistic part of me can't wait to see the theater count bloodbath for holdovers in the 2nd and 3rd weekend of Barbenheimer if they truly open above 200 combined.

[Firepower]

I'm confused by this thread. So is MI doing well or not? Is it still doing 90 mln 5 day at least?

Edited July 12, 2023 by Firepower

[Belakor]

Just now, Firepower said:

I'm confused by this thread. So is MI doing well or not? Is it still doing 90 mln 5 day at least?

Is doing good, WOM its going to save the movie, legs should be really good, the new releases in the next weeks are dramas or teen movies, main audience is going to eat this.

[Porthos]

35 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

It will be interesting to see how the early reactions translate into sales, especially since it's mostly been French critics. If it just slightly picks up the pace then similar reactions domestically could potentially take it to 10 million previews. Which...considering Barbie and the type of movie it is, would be insane for Oppenheimer. My doubts remain about the overall weekend though due to PLF preference and overall number of screens and length. Right now, 8-9 previews and 6 multiplier seems a safe bet though.

 

Also...the sadistic part of me can't wait to see the theater count bloodbath for holdovers in the 2nd and 3rd weekend of Barbenheimer if they truly open above 200 combined.

 

Wellllll, let's lock in 8m-9m first.  It looks to me that it's doing really well in other markets outside of Sacto, so I'm not quite as concerned about Sacramento massively over-indexing thanks to the 15/70mm print.

 

At the same time it's still been in pre-sales forever AND it has a very devoted fanbase for the director.

 

Not saying that 8m or so isn't likely as I really haven't locked in an initial range right now.  Am saying there are more than a couple of factors surrounding this movie that could make it more frontloaded (never mind more metro centered) than many of the same films it's currently being comped against.

[Porthos]

18 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Wellllll, let's lock in 8m-9m first.  It looks to me that it's doing really well in other markets outside of Sacto, so I'm not quite as concerned about Sacramento massively over-indexing thanks to the 15/70mm print.

 

At the same time it's still been in pre-sales forever AND it has a very devoted fanbase for the director.

 

Not saying that 8m or so isn't likely as I really haven't locked in an initial range right now.  Am saying there are more than a couple of factors surrounding this movie that could make it more frontloaded (never mind more metro centered) than many of the same films it's currently being comped against.

 

Then again...

 

*double checks something*

 

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

Oppenheimer Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days and counting

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	65	7968	9600	1632	17.00%

 

 

Dune:

Quote

Dune Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 Days and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	92	11672	13179	1507	11.43%

 

Quote

Dune Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	109	13069	14811	1742	11.76%

 

 

     

 

(it's currently half-way between Dune's T-3 and T-2 and is very likely to catch up with Dune's T-2 by tomorrow)

((final total for Dune locally was 2915 and I dare say Oppenheimer is gonna blow by that much sooner than I personally expected))

Edited July 12, 2023 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

Mission: Impossible 7 MiniTC2

 

SUN - 2204/3772 (17 showings) $20,985

MON - 2016/3454 (11 showings) $33,152
TUE - 8131/65847 (254 showings) $99,872

 

Early shows did well, could have been better but Tuesday was meh. Not having discount, it did underindex but there was T-mobile deal so it was better than discount.

 

Normally would have meant $5M TUE but considering it wasn’t discount day and this may underindex Hispanic demos, possibly $6M. Including EA $8-8.5M.

 

Wednesday sales are pathetic.

 

 

Edited July 12, 2023 by across the Jat verse

[vale9001]

oppenhaimer btw seems really an heavy movie and really "depressing" (nothing wrong with it of course). Just i don't understand why nolas has to be "summer movie" at any cost, this really seems his less blockbuster audience appealing movie. I think another season of the year could have fit more probably. 

[reddevil19]

28 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Then again...

 

*double checks something*

 

 

Dune:

 

 

 

     

 

(it's currently half-way between Dune's T-3 and T-2 and is very likely to catch up with Dune's T-2 by tomorrow)

((final total for Dune locally was 2915 and I dare say Oppenheimer is gonna blow by that much sooner than I personally expected))

As you said, I am sure it is over-indexing in markets with 70mm prints or proper IMAX, but there also seems to be genuine hype (for this type of movie, at least). If the reactions and reviews hit home, then 8 should be safe, I think, with potential for hitting the double figures depending on its last 2-3 days of sales. Overall weekend though... still can't quite see the high 50's - 60 some are saying unless it really starts ramping up standard showings...

Dunkirk numbers, with higher previews but lower multiplier seems the target.

[reddevil19]

1 hour ago, Firepower said:

I'm confused by this thread. So is MI doing well or not? Is it still doing 90 mln 5 day at least?

Schrödinger's box office. The atypical opening, the overall GA-heavy rather than fanboy-heavy appeal of the franchise (with people still at work), reviews to build the WOM as we go deeper into the week - it all makes for this being a difficult movie to have a quick snap decision on its success. But given how these movies have always played, I think you could only consider it disappointing if your expectations were skewed by TGM.

[reddevil19]

14 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

oppenhaimer btw seems really an heavy movie and really "depressing" (nothing wrong with it of course). Just i don't understand why nolas has to be "summer movie" at any cost, this really seems his less blockbuster audience appealing movie. I think another season of the year could have fit more probably. 

I mean... yes? But I also think a lot of people have said this, but at the same time, there's no reason people can't enjoy a serious movie in the summer, the same way they can enjoy a superhero flick in February. The counter-programming with Barbie seems to be working to its benefit to the point where it's compensating for anything extra it would have made playing as "serious drama award season rainy weather" in like Oct/Nov. If anything, Oppenheimer doing 50/150 in July, given the type of movie it is would mean more for the overall state of cinemas and the depth of releases than it doing similar or slightly better in November.

[vale9001]

18 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

I mean... yes? But I also think a lot of people have said this, but at the same time, there's no reason people can't enjoy a serious movie in the summer, the same way they can enjoy a superhero flick in February. The counter-programming with Barbie seems to be working to its benefit to the point where it's compensating for anything extra it would have made playing as "serious drama award season rainy weather" in like Oct/Nov. If anything, Oppenheimer doing 50/150 in July, given the type of movie it is would mean more for the overall state of cinemas and the depth of releases than it doing similar or slightly better in November.

 

of course they can and the movie will make very good but there also cases when a release during award season (since this movie clearly is coming for 10+ nominations) is better. On summer for example his mature audience can prefer MI and something less heavy. I think this was a case where fall release was better. 

Basically they won't take any advantage of award season for a movie i think will be at the very center of it. 

Edited July 12, 2023 by vale9001

[TheOneWithTheHat]

Award season is increasingly not the best place to release Oscar contenders, based on the last few Oscar years.