The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Bob-omb]

40 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Still don't get why BOP is forecasting legs this poor for Barbie tbh, why would 2.7x be the best case scenario if it opens 155M?

The last Twilight movie opened to 141M and legged out 2,0x-ish while for Hunger games, the best multiplier was 2.7x. Hunger Games movies were female-heavy films that had male appeal as well. I was thinking that maybe it could behave like those movies

Edited July 14, 2023 by Bob-omb
Hunger Games is friendlier for guy audiences not Twilight

[JustLurking]

3 minutes ago, Bob-omb said:

The last Twilight movie opened to 141M and legged out 2,0x-ish while for Hunger games, the best multiplier was 2.7x. Those are female-heavier films that had male appeal as well. I was thinking that maybe it could behave like those movies

I'm not saying it can't. I'm just saying it's weird to put it as the best case scenario for the film.

[filmlover]

Barbie is destined for such a huge and inflated opening that the second weekend is bound to see a massive drop. Where it goes from there will all depend on reviews/WOM.

[vale9001]

34 minutes ago, Bob-omb said:

The last Twilight movie opened to 141M and legged out 2,0x-ish while for Hunger games, the best multiplier was 2.7x. Those are female-heavier films that had male appeal as well. I was thinking that maybe it could behave like those movies

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I don't get what is the connection between this movie and Twilight and Hunger Games 😅

 They were like under 25 movies. 

 

 

 

The audience this movie can reach, even if we really want to treat it like is just a female driven movie, is clearly broadest.

 

I would think to something like Devil wears prada 27-125 (4.7x)

Mamma mia 27- 144 (5.3x)

 

of course this is more frontloaded cause it's more awaited but there is any reason imo if it's a great movie for its audience to think it's gonna perform like a romantic movie for teen girls 💀...seems more like the audience of a typical "female commercial comedy" and can take women from 10 to 60. 

 

 

 

Edited July 14, 2023 by vale9001

[Bobzaruni]

The drop might be overstated. After week 2, maybe. But for week 2 specifically, I can see spillover happening with how crowded the schedule is.

[M37]

I really can't argue with the updated LRF for Barbie and Oppenheimer (if anything, might be a touch low)

 

With the caveat that that rates may be somewhat inflated by July 4th holiday effect (deflating sales for a ~week before catching back up), the growth for Barbie from T-14 to T-7 is higher across samples than any major release besides Venom 2 and Minions (even above Mario OD's growth a week from release). Barbie should surpass GOTG3 in total sales in the T-7 update from ZackM for Alpha (130K+ vs 126.7K)

 

And Oppy is no slouch either, now slightly head of Mermaid's pace at this same checkpoint, on par with Mario,  higher than younger male skewing action flicks like Wick 4 and Black Adam. Seems clear there is a double feature and/or split audience effect here, Oppy riding Barbie's coattails

 

The good news is that unlike Venom 2, Minions, and even ATSV to a degree, the sales volume is high enough that official tracking sources have mostly sniffed out the pace early enough that (hopefully) enough seats can be allocated to meet the expected demand...

 

...which at this point sure looks like the biggest total Thursday preview since Strange MoM ($36M), ahead of Thor L&T ($29M) and BPWF ($28M)

 

Will post charts & Forecast Matrix once all the T-7 updates are in (may not be until tomorrow morning though)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 7/7/2023 at 8:41 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Indiana Jones 5	3,427	68,347	-31.15%	56,852	510.69	11,495	4,133	0
Insidious 6	2,774	63,877		60,362		3,515	0	0
Joy Ride	2,561	46,097		46,055		42	0	0
Elemental	2,779	36,597	-14.92%	34,630	281.95	1,967	0	1,921
Ruby Gillman	2,814	31,974	-28.67%	31,952	101.92	22	0	0
Sound of Freedom	2,361	31,280		31,268		12	0	0
Spider-Verse 2	2,484	30,229	-20.12%	30,140	317.28	89	0	0
No Hard Feelings	2,123	27,981	-25.94%	27,969	207.99	12	0	0
Transformers 6	2,073	23,616	-21.56%	22,293	244.26	1,323	0	1,267
The Little Mermaid	1,679	17,956	-27.01%	17,303	219.20	653	0	635
The Flash	1,447	12,416	-56.39%	12,384	183.93	32	0	0
Asteroid City	974	12,045	-51.42%	12,004	172.51	41	0	0
Past Lives	677	5,026	-55.09%	5,020	138.28	6	0	0
Guardians Vol. 3	620	4,723	-45.08%	4,695	235.00	28	0	22

 

US Showtime Report Sample*

*Not all theaters are accounted for

OW Showtimes Comps

Sound of Freedom (3-Day) - 31,280 (2,361 TC)

 - The King's Man - 29,915 (2,800)

 - Devotion - 30,341 (2,500)

 - Three Thousand Years of Longing - 32,529 (2,230)

 

Joy Ride 7/1 EA - 101 (101 TC)

Joy Ride 7/5 EA - 1,875 (1,685 TC)

Joy Ride - 46,097 (2,561 TC)

 - Bros - 46,647 (2,995)

 - Bones and All - 45,531 (2,384)

 - Babylon - 44,741 (3,029)

 - 65 - 46,554 (2,884)

 

Insidious 5 - 63,877 (2,774 TC)

 - Black Phone - 59,993 (2,800)

 - Smile - 60,493 (3,169)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 65,207 (3,216)

 

T-1 Week Showtime Comps

*Mission: Impossible 7/9 EA - 437 (433 TC)*

Mission: Impossible 7/10 EA - 709 (661 TC)

Mission: Impossible (5-day) - 117,939 (2,992 TC)

**Mission: Impossible (3-day) - 58,550 (2,531 TC)**

 - No Time to Die - 63,789 (2,910)

 - Bullet Train- 53,866 (2,579)

 - Ghostbusters - 63,866 (2,826)

 - Transformers RotB - 72,589 (2,647)

*Walmart+ shows are beginning to populate but no MTC3 yet

**The 3-day does not include previews, but comps do - each comp has between 10k and 15k preview shows; MI has 16.5k)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtime Comps

Barbie 7/19 EA - 401 (393 TC)

Barbie - 10,509 (2,488 TC)

 - Secrets of Dumbledore - 11,617 (2,405)

 - Shazam 2 - 11,334 (2,346)

 - Elemental - 10,493 (2,338)

 

Oppenheimer - 6,315 (2,375 TC)

 - Scream VI - 6,937 (2,271)

 - Dune - 5,906 (2,129)

 

T-3 Week Previews Showtime Comps

Haunted Mansion 7/26 EA - 115 (115 TC)

Haunted Mansion - 7,297 (2,028 TC)

 - Scream VI - 6,748 (2,192)

 - NTTD - 7,191 (1,520)

 - Sonic 2 - 7,639 (2,272)

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Mission: Impossible 7	3,546	100,031		86,577		13,454	4,130	0
Insidious 6	2,802	43,287	-20.22%	43,218	516.82	69	0	0
Indiana Jones 5	3,194	40,724	-40.42%	40,627	401.20	97	0	0
Sound of Freedom	2,719	36,577	16.93%	36,565	629.18	12	0	0
Elemental	2,685	35,171	-3.90%	33,547	274.13	1,624	0	1,568
Joy Ride	2,470	26,152	-32.20%	26,120	125.96	32	0	0
Spider-Verse 2	2,161	25,604	-15.30%	25,580	265.65	24	0	0
No Hard Feelings	1,696	19,455	-30.47%	19,455	193.15	0	0	0
Transformers 6	1,739	16,997	-28.03%	16,042	216.21	955	0	883
The Little Mermaid	1,329	11,623	-35.27%	11,221	205.49	402	0	385
The Miracle Club	612	8,364		8,364		0	0	0
Ruby Gillman	1,444	7,715	-75.87%	7,700	89.02	15	0	0
Asteroid City	620	6,283	-47.84%	6,259	187.03	24	0	0
Psycho-Pass	385	5,247		5,247		0	0	0
The Flash	676	4,335	-65.09%	4,306	182.49	29	0	0

 

US Showtime Report Sample*

*Not all theaters are accounted for

OW Showtimes Comps

*Mission: Impossible (3-day) - 100,031 (3,546 TC)*

 - Eternals - 104,448 (3,436)

 - Ghostbusters - 101,185 (3,243)

 - Transformers RotB - 101,005 (3,183)

 - No Time to Die - 95,876 (3,529)

*Since this was a mid-week opening, the 3-day total does not include previews.  The comp totals are also using F-Su show totals*

 

T-1 Week Showtime Comps

Barbie 7/19 EA - 437 (421 TC)

 - M:I 7 7/8 EA - 437 (433)

 - Lost City 3/23 EA - 434 (431)

Barbie - 80,057 (2,855 TC) (14,694 previews)

 - Lightyear - 82,420 (2,745) (15,359 previews)

 - Flash - 82,414 (2,823) (15,507 previews

 - Indiana Jones - 76,495 (2,876) (14,546 previews)

 

Oppenheimer - 44,992 (2,727 TC) (7,346 previews) (8,645 PLF)

 - Scream VI - 47,509 (2,548) (8,081 previews) (15,204 PLF)

 - Dune - 45,388 (2,771) (7,088 previews) (7,798 PLF)

 - Creed III - 48,260 (2,518) (5,790 previews) (11,443 PLF)

 

Barbie is right at double the number of preview shows as Oppenheimer.  I was expecting a higher PLF share for Oppenheimer, but it looks like it's only getting half of the Dolby and no D-Box in my sample.  Scream had 3D which was the biggest difference there.  

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtime Comps

Haunted Mansion 7/26 EA - 115 (115 TC)

Haunted Mansion - 7,500 (2,108 TC)

 - Uncharted - 7,459 (2,177)

 - Halloween Ends - 7,934 (2,126)

 - Sonic 2 - 7,979 (2,389)

 

Talk to Me 7/26 EA - 105 (105 TC)

Talk to Me - 2,569 (1,025)

 - Halloween Kills - 2,694 (1,368)

 - Resident Evil - 2,532 (936)

 - Beast - 2,330 (845)

 

T-3 Week Previews Showtime Comps

TMNT 7/25 EA - 30 (30 TC) (Harkins)

TMNT 7/29 EA - 568 (536 TC)

TMNT 7/31 EA - 419 (398 TC) (266 PLF)

TMNT - 9,481 (1,679 TC)

 - Black Adam - 10,710 (1,868)

 - Shazam 2 - 10,850 (2,193)

 - Eternals - 8,959 (2,267)

 - Barbie - 10,086 (2,388)

[Bobzaruni]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

I really can't argue with the updated LRF for Barbie and Oppenheimer (if anything, might be a touch low)

 

With the caveat that that rates may be somewhat inflated by July 4th holiday effect (deflating sales for a ~week before catching back up), the growth for Barbie from T-14 to T-7 is higher across samples than any major release besides Venom 2 and Minions (even above Mario OD's growth a week from release). Barbie should surpass GOTG3 in total sales in the T-7 update from ZackM for Alpha (130K+ vs 126.7K)

 

And Oppy is no slouch either, now slightly head of Mermaid's pace at this same checkpoint, on par with Mario,  higher than younger male skewing action flicks like Wick 4 and Black Adam. Seems clear there is a double feature and/or split audience effect here, Oppy riding Barbie's coattails

 

The good news is that unlike Venom 2, Minions, and even ATSV to a degree, the sales volume is high enough that official tracking sources have mostly sniffed out the pace early enough that (hopefully) enough seats can be allocated to meet the expected demand...

 

...which at this point sure looks like the biggest total Thursday preview since Strange MoM ($36M), ahead of Thor L&T ($29M) and BPWF ($28M)

 

Will post charts & Forecast Matrix once all the T-7 updates are in (may not be until tomorrow morning though)

You mean combined right? 

[Flopped]

Hi, I dont know what this mean/understand how to read it. Can someone explain? 

 

Talk to Me 7/26 EA - 105 (105 TC)

Talk to Me - 2,569 (1,025)

 - Halloween Kills - 2,694 (1,368)

 - Resident Evil - 2,532 (936)

 - Beast - 2,330 (845)

[reddevil19]

4 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I don't get what is the connection between this movie and Twilight and Hunger Games 😅

 They were like under 25 movies. 

 

 

 

The audience this movie can reach, even if we really want to treat it like is just a female driven movie, is clearly broadest.

 

I would think to something like Devil wears prada 27-125 (4.7x)

Mamma mia 27- 144 (5.3x)

 

of course this is more frontloaded cause it's more awaited but there is any reason imo if it's a great movie for its audience to think it's gonna perform like a romantic movie for teen girls 💀...seems more like the audience of a typical "female commercial comedy" can take women from 14 to 60. 

 

 

 

You don't like Twilight and Hunger Games as comparisons so you go to the exact opposite end? If this opens 6 times larger than Mamma Mia, it's unlikely to match the multiplier. That was the counterprogramming to TDK. Barbie is the main event and will be burning off more demand upfront. Obviously it could end up a proper 600 million phenom, but we need to see the first 7 days to try and get an idea of that. For now, something like Hunger Games isn't THAT outrageous a comparison. And even if we look at movies that opened in the 130 to 170 million range, excluding animated, 2.7-2.8 is a pretty good IM. Anything 3 and above is the exception, especially without holidays. I think your best case scenario to be on the look-out for is TDK. 150-ish opening to low 500 total. But we just don't know until we see the actual reception to the movie. It could be 120 opening and 430 total, which would actually be great legs, or 150 opening and 330 total due to a total collapse post first 7-10 days. The range for it is still very wilde.

[M37]

4 minutes ago, Bobzaruni said:

You mean combined right?

Correct, total preview combined $30M+

 

Though, if Barbie keeps up this pace (just don't think it can), then could be getting to high $20s all by herself

[katnisscinnaplex]

4 minutes ago, Flopped said:

Hi, I dont know what this mean/understand how to read it. Can someone explain? 

 

Talk to Me 7/26 EA - 105 (105 TC)

Talk to Me - 2,569 (1,025)

 - Halloween Kills - 2,694 (1,368)

 - Resident Evil - 2,532 (936)

 - Beast - 2,330 (845)

 

Talk to Me is currently booked in 1,025 theaters for previews night with a total of 2,569 shows.  I sample ~3,800 US theaters each week looking at showtime counts to find movies with similar distribution sizes.

 

It also has an early access show in 105 theaters.

Edited July 14, 2023 by katnisscinnaplex

[Bobzaruni]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

Correct, total preview combined $30M+

 

Though, if Barbie keeps up this pace (just don't think it can), then could be getting to high $20s all by herself

We'd be looking at all-time numbers then (160M+ at the minimum)

[M37]

Just for @Flopped

 

Talk To Me T-14 Tampa/St Pete Track

Tickets sold = 30

 

The only comp I have is Ruby Gillman, which would project to ~$1.5M Thursday, but with a single comp, numbers this low and crossing genres, will be some big error bars on that value. Will also note a fair number of seats are singles, suggesting club subscribers not purchases, could be inflating the volume

 

Would set preliminary expectations at $1M+ Thursday, $10M OW (most sites don't have previews until 7pm, so will have higher IM), but that could be a little high or way too low. Will know better by T-7 or T-4

[el sid]

Haunted Mansion, counted yesterday for Thursday, July 27 = 14 days to go:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 26 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 35 (8 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 4 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 6 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 7 (5 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 35 (6 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 63 (6 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 176.

Comps: Ghostbusters: Afterlife had with 4 days left 889 sold tickets,
Zombieland 2 had with 1 day left 743 sold tickets,
Renfield had also with 1 day left 316 sold tickets.

and Violent Night had with 9 days left 81 sold tickets

Haunted Mansion, counted yesterday for Friday, July 28 = 15 days to go:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 21 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 16 (11 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 0 (8 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 8 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 26 (9 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 52 (10 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 123.

 

Comps: Ghostbusters: Afterlife (44M OW) had with 11 days left 234 sold tickets,
Zombieland 2 (26.8M) had with 2 days left 727 sold tickets,
Violent Night (13.5M) had with 10 days left 48 sold tickets,

Renfield (8M) had with 2 days left 269 sold tickets

and JC (35M) had with 3 days left 357 sold tickets.
 

Not bad at all, especially being overshadowed by Barbie at the moment.
Maybe it could open similar to The House with a Clock in Its Walls (26.6M OW), maybe even higher. Just a wild guess.

Edited July 14, 2023 by el sid

[Tinalera]

Barbie

Thurs July 20 Fri July 21 (T-7)

Toronto and Montreal Canada

 

T-7		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Toronto	Thurs	4	25	2187	4715	6902	0.3168
	Fri	4	19	2730	2643	5373	0.5080
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Montreal	Thurs	2	9	1107	1881	2988	0.3704
	Fri	2	7	1284	566	1850	0.6940

 

 

I mean.....walkups might help maybe  (I couldnt find a sarcasm emote)

 

I cant think of any Comedy that has done these sorts of numbers in Canada since Ive tracked. I think for certain cities (like Montreal area) perhaps there is so much content from the summer so far, esp if those films are doing decent (and a certain movie about hydrogen or something), not helping as for them to decide which seats to release for pre-sale. 

 

Again though, these numbers for Barbie are just eye opening.

 

And just a reminder, reason why Montreal only has 2 theatres instead of usual 4, its because there are no presales available yet for those theatres. I didnt choose to do just 2, thats all it would give me for montreal.

) 

[vale9001]

1 hour ago, reddevil19 said:

You don't like Twilight and Hunger Games as comparisons so you go to the exact opposite end? If this opens 6 times larger than Mamma Mia, it's unlikely to match the multiplier. That was the counterprogramming to TDK. Barbie is the main event and will be burning off more demand upfront. Obviously it could end up a proper 600 million phenom, but we need to see the first 7 days to try and get an idea of that. For now, something like Hunger Games isn't THAT outrageous a comparison. And even if we look at movies that opened in the 130 to 170 million range, excluding animated, 2.7-2.8 is a pretty good IM. Anything 3 and above is the exception, especially without holidays. I think your best case scenario to be on the look-out for is TDK. 150-ish opening to low 500 total. But we just don't know until we see the actual reception to the movie. It could be 120 opening and 430 total, which would actually be great legs, or 150 opening and 330 total due to a total collapse post first 7-10 days. The range for it is still very wilde.

 

for every movie we don't know about reception but usually they don't have this kind of bad multiplier as BEST scenario lol 

 

 

 of course more frontloaded than Mamma mia but it's a kinda of mamma mia movie so there is any reason to think legs have to be like Twilight, this doesn't have the same audience of twilight 😅. For every kinda of blockbuster (so male driven) we have predictions about genres but I guess "female driven movie" makes every movie the same. This is a comedy, not a romantic movie for teens, and it's not a book adaption. 

 

Female driven movies don't have all the same kinda of legs. We should know about that...I guess

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 14, 2023 by vale9001

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 7/13/2023 at 7:45 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Barbie	T-7	Jax	6	54	108	958	6,498	14.74%
		Phx	7	68	214	1,003	10,113	9.92%
		Ral	8	54	151	1,222	6,232	19.61%
	Total		21	176	473	3,183	22,843	13.93%
Barbie (EA)	T-6	Jax	2	3	14	230	319	72.10%
		Phx	1	1	3	199	208	95.67%
		Ral	2	2	0	168	190	88.42%
	Total		5	6	17	597	717	83.26%
Oppenheimer	T-7	Jax	6	28	63	537	5,083	10.56%
		Phx	6	26	38	542	3,996	13.56%
		Ral	8	26	41	587	3,295	17.81%
	Total		20	80	142	1,666	12,374	13.46%

 

Oppenheimer T-7 comps

 - JWD (Total) - .461x (8.3m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .642x (9.44m)

 - Avatar 2 - .491x (8.35m)

 - Matrix (OD) - 1.06x (6.74m)

 - Dune - 2.027x (10.34m)

 - Indiana Jones - 1.841x (13.25m)

 - Mission Impossible 7 (Total) - 1.51x (14.2m)

 - Barbie (Total) - .441x

 

Size adjusted average - 9.8m 

 

Barbie (Total) T-7 comps

 - Avatar 2 - 1.115x (18.95m)

 - JWD (Total) - 1.047x (18.84m)

 - Indiana Jones - 4.177x (30.07m)

 - Shazam 2 - 7.62x (25.91m)

 - Top Gun 2 (Total) - .959x (18.52m)

 - I Wanna Dance - 27x (19.71m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 3.18x (19.09m)

 - Oppenheimer - 2.269x

 

Size adjusted average - 19.87m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Barbie	T-6	Jax	6	59	206	1,164	7,462	15.60%
		Phx	7	68	204	1,207	10,113	11.94%
		Ral	8	60	169	1,391	6,730	20.67%
	Total		21	187	579	3,762	24,305	15.48%
Barbie (EA)	T-5	Jax	2	3	6	236	319	73.98%
		Phx	1	1	3	202	208	97.12%
		Ral	2	2	7	175	190	92.11%
	Total		5	6	16	613	717	85.50%
Oppenheimer	T-6	Jax	6	28	77	614	5,083	12.08%
		Phx	6	26	54	596	3,996	14.91%
		Ral	8	28	52	639	3,427	18.65%
	Total		20	82	183	1,849	12,506	14.78%

 

Oppenheimer T-6 comps

 - JWD (Total) - .482x (8.67m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .654x (9.61m)

 - Avatar 2 - .502x (8.53m)

 - Matrix (OD) - 1.095x (6.98m)

 - Dune - missed

 - Indiana Jones - 1.855x (13.35m)

 - Mission Impossible 7 (Total) - 1.543x (14.51m)

 - Barbie (Total) - .423x

 

Size adjusted average - 10.17m 

 

Barbie (Total) T-6 comps

 - Avatar 2 - 1.188x (20.19m)

 - JWD (Total) - 1.14x (20.51m)

 - Indiana Jones - 4.388x (31.59m)

 - Shazam 2 - 8.45x (28.72m)

 - Top Gun 2 (Total) - 1.028x (19.84m)

 - I Wanna Dance - 27.69x (20.21m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 3.35x (20.08m)

 - Oppenheimer - 2.366x

 

Size adjusted average - 21.29m

 

Nothing to see here, just another insane day of sales.

[reddevil19]

1 minute ago, vale9001 said:

 

for every movie we don't know about reception but usually they don't have this kind of bad multiplier as BEST scenario lol 

 

 

 of course more frontloaded than Mamma mia but it's a kinda of mamma mia movie so there is any reason to think legs have to be like Twilight, this doesn't have the same audience of twilight 😅. For every kinda of blockbuster (so male driven) we have predictions about genres but I guess "female driven movie" makes every movie the same. This is a comedy, not a romantic movie for teens, and it's not a book adaption. 

 

Female driven movie doesn't have all the same kinda of legs. We should know about that...I guess

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I just... what?

Dude, ya gotta stop reading into what people say as some kind of fucking attack on Barbie, Jesus Christ. There is zero reason to use Mamma Mia as a comparison over the likes of other female-led, female-targeted movies that opened in the 150 range like Hunger Games (I do agree with you that Twilight isn't a likely comparison).

Just look at the multipliers of movies that have opened in the 130-170 range and see that a 2.8 multiplier is just basically par for the course average. The truth is we don't even know if it will open closer to 120 with VERY heavy preview skew, or closer to 180 with an amazing weekend multiplier, so getting worked up about what you perceive as a bad final multiplier is beyond silly. Just sit back and chill, man. It's a very wide range, based on the most likely outcome when looking at comparable precedents, rather than "best case scenario".

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 7/13/2023 at 7:47 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Haunted Mansion	T-14	Jax	5	31	4	67	3,813	1.76%
		Phx	6	27	0	60	4,543	1.32%
		Ral	8	30	6	48	3,672	1.31%
	Total		19	88	10	175	12,028	1.45%
Haunted Mansion (EA)	T-13	Jax	2	2	1	42	395	10.63%
		Phx	1	1	4	48	208	23.08%
	Total		4	4	5	90	603	14.93%
Talk to Me	T-14	Jax	4	10	0	0	1,029	0.00%
		Phx	5	11	0	0	1,258	0.00%
		Ral	6	16	0	2	1,567	0.13%
	Total		15	37	0	2	3,854	0.05%

 

Haunted Mansion (Total) T-14 comps

 - Shazam 2 - .656x (2.23m)

 - Barbie (Total) - .152x (3.02m w/ today's avg)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 3.313x (4.8m)

 - Nope - .82x (5.25m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .621x (3.88m)

 

Size adjusted average - 3.89m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Haunted Mansion	T-13	Jax	5	31	3	70	3,813	1.84%
		Phx	6	27	8	68	4,543	1.50%
		Ral	8	30	1	49	3,672	1.33%
	Total		19	88	12	187	12,028	1.55%
Haunted Mansion (EA)	T-12	Jax	2	2	0	42	395	10.63%
		Phx	1	1	5	53	208	25.48%
	Total		4	4	5	95	603	15.75%
Talk to Me	T-13	Jax	4	10	3	3	1,029	0.29%
		Phx	5	11	9	9	1,258	0.72%
		Ral	6	16	1	3	1,567	0.19%
	Total		15	37	13	15	3,854	0.39%

 

Haunted Mansion (Total) T-13 comps

 - Shazam 2 - .678x (2.3m)

 - Barbie (Total) - .15x (3.19m w/ today's avg)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 3.525x (5.11m)

 - Nope - .806x (5.16m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .6x (3.75m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .477x (2.86m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 3.863x (10.43m)

 

Size adjusted average - 4.39m

 

Talk to Me T-13 comps

 - Black Phone (Total) - .109x (326k)

 - M3GAN - .455x (1.25m)

 

Still much too early for horror to pop.