The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[katnisscinnaplex]

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Turtles	T-18	Jax	5	40	34	34	5,828	0.58%
		Phx	6	59	65	65	8,926	0.73%
		Ral	5	35	48	48	5,055	0.95%
	Total		16	134	147	147	19,809	0.74%
Turtles (EA)	T-15	Jax	4	6	18	18	384	4.69%
		Phx	1	1	8	8	169	4.73%
		Ral	3	3	40	40	433	9.24%
	Total		8	10	66	66	986	6.69%
	T-17	Jax	5	7	46	46	961	4.79%
		Phx	1	1	42	42	208	20.19%
	Total		7	9	88	88	1,169	7.53%

 

Turtles (Total) T-18 comps

 - Barbie (Total) - .225x (4.8m w/ today's avg)

 - JW3 - .133x (2.39m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .865x (5.41m)

[vale9001]

38 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

I just... what?

Dude, ya gotta stop reading into what people say as some kind of fucking attack on Barbie, Jesus Christ. There is zero reason to use Mamma Mia as a comparison over the likes of other female-led, female-targeted movies that opened in the 150 range like Hunger Games (I do agree with you that Twilight isn't a likely comparison).

Just look at the multipliers of movies that have opened in the 130-170 range and see that a 2.8 multiplier is just basically par for the course average. The truth is we don't even know if it will open closer to 120 with VERY heavy preview skew, or closer to 180 with an amazing weekend multiplier, so getting worked up about what you perceive as a bad final multiplier is beyond silly. Just sit back and chill, man. It's a very wide range, based on the most likely outcome when looking at comparable precedents, rather than "best case scenario".

 

 

This is a big commercial comedy movie with 43 years old Ryan Gosling, star of classic drama- comedies for a mature female audience like La La land and Crazy Stupid love and Margot Robbie and America Ferrera and Will ferrell.

 

This is a silly comedy, same genre as mamma mia, and also a kinda of motivational comedy ala Devil wears Prada. These are the comparison makes more sense than Twilight with 16 years old star Taylor Launter 🤣😭

 

this has a way potential broader female audience. Her more fair comparison are mamma mia, the devil wears prada,  pretty woman etc... not Twilight and Fault of our stars.💀

Edited July 14, 2023 by vale9001

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

Haunted Mansion T-15: 46.98% Awareness

Talk to Me T-15: 20.9% Awareness

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem T-20: 45.93% Awareness

The Meg 2: The Trench T-22: 37.57% Awareness

Gran Turismo T-29: 24.86% Awareness

The Last Voyage of the Demeter T-29: 18.41% Awareness

The Equalizer 3 T-50: 36.85% Awareness

Five Nights at Freddy's T-106: 32.28% Awareness

 

Barbie T-8: 63.87% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 94% chance of 50M, 81% chance of 60M, 62% chance of 70M, 44% chance of 100M

 

Strays T-36: 27.9% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 51% chance of 10M, 16% chance of 20M

Original - Low Awareness: 35% chance of 10M, 5% chance of 20M

[ZackM]

21 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

Barbie Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	117	175	100	21	91
Seats Added	14,991	28,886	17,738	3,088	15,867
Seats Sold	9,910	9,499	10,100	5,242	4,217
7/12/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	416	2,504	98,466	409,264	24.06%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	19	76	181	352
ATP	Gross
$16.36	$1,610,904

 

 

Barbie Blowout Party: Early Access Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days
7/12/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	108	108	19,122	20,668	92.52%
ATP	Gross
$21.17	$404,813

 

 

Barbie Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	37	117	175	100	21
Seats Added	4,350	14,991	28,886	17,738	3,088
Seats Sold	11,477	9,910	9,499	10,100	5,242
7/13/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	416	2,541	109,943	413,614	26.58%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	25	94	213	408
ATP	Gross
$16.32	$1,794,270

 

 

Barbie Blowout Party: Early Access Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days
7/13/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	108	108	19,304	20,668	93.40%
ATP	Gross
$21.16	$408,473

[RamblinRed]

18 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Not sure if that number is going to be close to the actuals but I could see O/U $80M at this point

 

8.8

8.5

12

16

18

15

Unfortunately it looks like it was just the Orlando market since it ended up at 8.3 instead of 12.

Today's jump is going to be all important for MI:7.

[ZackM]

21 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

 

Oppenheimer Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	21	39	22	8	19
Seats Added	2,521	7,493	4,001	1,053	3,036
Seats Sold	4,316	4,255	4,348	2,769	2,338
7/12/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	426	1,442	69,078	280,008	24.67%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	2	13	47	99	171
ATP	Gross
$19.03	$1,314,554

 

 

Oppenheimer Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	10	21	39	22	8
Seats Added	1,280	2,521	7,493	4,001	1,053
Seats Sold	5,216	4,316	4,255	4,348	2,769
7/13/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	426	1,452	74,294	281,288	26.41%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	3	17	52	116	195
ATP	Gross
$18.96	$1,408,614

[Bobzaruni]

26 minutes ago, ZackM said:

 

 

Oppenheimer Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	10	21	39	22	8
Seats Added	1,280	2,521	7,493	4,001	1,053
Seats Sold	5,216	4,316	4,255	4,348	2,769
7/13/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	426	1,452	74,294	281,288	26.41%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	3	17	52	116	195
ATP	Gross
$18.96	$1,408,614

Thought the ATP would be higher tbh unless I was being extremely unreasonable. Very good day of sales for both however.

[TheFlatLannister]

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

TMNT 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-18 *First 24 Hours

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
150	344	27662	1.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 12:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

EA

T-17

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
10	332	1756	18.9%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

N/A

 

 

COMPS

T-18

*Excludes any EA

 

(0.841x) of Elemental

~$2.01M THUR Previews + gross from EA 

[TheFlatLannister]

Ran Mi7 script and today's numbers are concerning. Only a 27% jump from yesterday. 3346 seats sold

 

Yesterday had such a massive jump because Wednesday sales in Orlando were very poor

[reddevil19]

6 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Ran Mi7 script and today's numbers are concerning. Only a 27% jump from yesterday. 3346 seats sold

 

Yesterday had such a massive jump because Wednesday sales in Orlando were very poor

Ugh. This summer and 300 million budget movies, man. 

[M37]

49 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Ran Mi7 script and today's numbers are concerning. Only a 27% jump from yesterday. 3346 seats sold

 

Yesterday had such a massive jump because Wednesday sales in Orlando were very poor

Yeah, but that’s also like +80% from your Wed number. Possible Thursday was just an aberration for this market?  

Edited July 14, 2023 by M37

[TwoMisfits]

6 hours ago, filmlover said:

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 7/13/23)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	5-Day (WTFSS) Opening Low/High Range	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
7/21/2023	Barbie	$115,000,000 – $155,000,000	+32%		$303,000,000 – $426,000,000	+32%	Warner Bros. Pictures
7/21/2023	Oppenheimer	$48,000,000 – $57,000,000	+3%		$164,000,000 – $194,000,000		Universal Pictures
7/28/2023	The First Slam Dunk						GKIDS
7/28/2023	Haunted Mansion	$22,000,000 – $32,000,000			$73,000,000 – $113,000,000		Walt Disney Pictures
7/28/2023	Talk to Me						A24
8/2/2023	Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem	$27,000,000 – $36,000,000		$37,000,000 – $49,000,000	$101,000,000 – $145,000,000		Paramount Pictures
8/4/2023	Meg 2: The Trench	$26,000,000 – $35,000,000			$70,000,000 – $105,000,000		Warner Bros. Pictures
8/11/2023	Gran Turismo	$15,000,000 – $20,000,000			$35,000,000 – $55,000,000		Sony Pictures
8/11/2023	The Last Voyage of the Demeter	$5,000,000 – $10,000,000			$14,000,000 – $28,000,000		Universal Pictures

Long Range Box Office Forecast: Early Prospects for GRAN TURISMO and THE LAST VOYAGE OF THE DEMETER; Trends for BARBIE Climb to Potential $115M+ Debut - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

 

So, I see that Barbie number, and it's starting to get too high for my betting blood...

 

I'll say, it's gonna do great,  But women, especially Caucasian women, are known for early prebuying...and there's still only Dolby and a split with another huge movie...I just don't think $155M for a 3 day is in the possible realm for this summer.  Spidey was $120M, and that's asking $35M more than Spidey with limited PLF...I can't see it going that high (Spidey and GOTG 3's opens would be my rough ceiling guess)...

 

I'll be so thankful if I'm wrong, but I think we might be getting a little carried away on presales without understanding the presale buyers.  I mean, if you think diverse male 13-25 year old walk ups are gonna storm the theaters on Friday to join all the Caucasian 13-45 female buyers...okay...but I think they'll be in smaller numbers.  And this is a planned "arrival" movie, since everyone is dressing up.  It's just not as great for a walkup like boys doing it for Gentleminions (and Minions 2 was only $107m with the phenomenon in play)...

[MovieMan89]

Dont know why some are still assuming Barbie will just be female driven at this point. Movie is breaking out in hype with everyone in the teen to thirties range. I also think the Nolan fanboys are much more likely to get pulled into Barbie that weekend via the Barbenheimer vacuum than a lot of the female Barbie audience who don’t normally show up at theaters are likely to get pulled into Oppenheimer. Don’t underestimate Gosling’s “cool” factor with straight guys too. In fact, I can’t think of another actor who currently has as much of that “guys want to be him” sort of appeal. 

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Dont know why some are still assuming Barbie will just be female driven at this point. Movie is breaking out in hype with everyone in the teen to thirties range. I also think the Nolan fanboys are much more likely to get pulled into Barbie that weekend via the Barbenheimer vacuum than a lot of the female Barbie audience who don’t normally show up at theaters are likely to get pulled into Oppenheimer. Don’t underestimate Gosling’s “cool” factor with straight guys too. In fact, I can’t think of another actor who currently has as much of that “guys want to be him” sort of appeal. 

 

Spidey got 25 showings with split PLF (with Mermaid) at my locals to get to $120M (and GoTG had all PLF and more)...right now, Barbie's at 15 and 10 presale showings...so to get to $155M, I'd want to see 30+ showings minimum for a final set.  I just don't think it's gonna get that much with another huge opener and the continuing 1-2 punch of MI7 and SoF (not to mention, holdovers that studios might want a spot for - like are you dropping EVERY Disney film to make Barbie get all the screens - right now, I don't think so)...

Edited July 14, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Spidey got 25 showings with split PLF (with Mermaid) at my locals to get to $120M...right now, Barbie's at 15 and 10 presale showings...so to get to $155M, I'd want to see 30+ showings minimum for a final set.  I just don't think it's gonna get that much with another huge opener and the continuing 1-2 punch of MI7 and SoF (not to mention, holdovers that studios might want a spot for - like are you dropping EVERY Disney film to make Barbie get all the screens - right now, I don't think so)...

I don’t think the screen count is that important at this point. It has enough to do big damage. People underestimate how much a movie can do on a number of screens all the time if the demand is really there. I will never forget all the epic dissertations on here for months and months leading up to Endgame telling me that 300+ was borderline an impossible opening weekend number that required nearly all screens and every showing to be sold out and I was just like “lol, no.” 

Edited July 14, 2023 by MovieMan89

[TheFlatLannister]

21 minutes ago, M37 said:

Yeah, but that’s also like +80% from your Wed number. Possible Thursday was just an aberration for this market?  

For sure an aberration 

[TwoMisfits]

17 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I don’t think the screen count is that important at this point. It has enough to do big damage. People underestimate how much a movie can do on a number of screens all the time if the demand is really there. I will never forget all the epic dissertations on here for months and months leading up to Endgame telling me that 300+ was borderline an impossible opening weekend number that required nearly all screens and every showing to be sold out and I was just like “lol, no.” 

 

But it's not gonna sell out 10am, or 1pm, or 10pm...this is an event movie that the audience will show between 2-9pm - those are the sellouts for this movie, and there are only so many of them if you don't get screens and showings...

 

Edit to Add - Endgame had fans showing 24 hours a day - that event was not a "be seen" event like this one will be...

Edited July 14, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[djbayko]

3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

But it's not gonna sell out 10am, or 1pm, or 10pm...this is an event movie that the audience will show between 2-9pm - those are the sellouts for this movie, and there are only so many of them if you don't get screens and showings...

 

Edit to Add - Endgame had fans showing 24 hours a day - that event was not a "be seen" event like this one will be...

 

So where are you at then?

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, djbayko said:

 

So where are you at then?

 

I'd sit around $107-$120M - Minions 2 to Spidey - that'd be my target OW...I mean, I could expand it, but that seems on point based on what the movie is and the comparison to other similar zeitgeist movies and situations...

 

It could go lower if something weird happens with the strike this week, or it gets bad WOM after Wed, but I don't expect that...but I don't see it going much higher without a full clearout that will make Disney sad (I mean, are you dropping Elemental AND Indy for more Barbie as a theater manager?)...

Edited July 14, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[Belakor]

I still think MI7 is going to do strong numbers this weekend. Not all people have holidays and not everyone in holidays goes to  the movie theater midweek