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Shawn Robbins

The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

By Shawn Robbins, in Box Office Discussion

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Posted by katnisscinnaplex,

Presales Tracking Information   I guess this is as good of a time as any to share this sheet I've been putting together for the past few weeks.  It's a table of movies from the past few years with relevant pre-sales information (release date, sales date, sales window, previews gross, etc.)  @datpepper and I will try to keep it updated when ticket sales dates are announced for upcoming films to make those easier to find.     There are a few gaps in the sheet where I couldn't f

Pre Sale Data Google Doc

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Posted by XXR & Friends,

I’m sure I’ve done enough “reminding” at this point that this is the tracking thread and not a discussion thread. Take your predictions and commentary elsewhere. No more warnings on this subject.
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katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

Why do people on here even bother with Quorum, anyway? It seems like a terrible metric at predicting anything.

The point of tracking it is determine its usefulness over time.  Just like every metric, nothing is going to be right every time.  Being able to find trends will help identify where potential misses will be ahead of time.  I don’t think we should throw any data point out the window without thoroughly analyzing it over time.

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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Quorum numbers are bullshit. Even looking at Oppy presales before Barbie PS started, it was not looking like a sub 40m opener. 

I wouldn’t say they’re BS, rather a not necessarily representative sample, but should correlate decently to presales, less so on walk-ups/GA.  So to me, it says something that a lower awareness film is having this kind of presale run (what, exactly, I’m not sure)

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, M37 said:

I wouldn’t say they’re BS, rather a not necessarily representative sample, but should correlate decently to presales, less so on walk-ups/GA.  So to me, it says something that a lower awareness film is having this kind of presale run (what, exactly, I’m not sure)

They probably can't account for fanbase interest which tends to be more concrete than GA interest. Nolan has a sizeable and engaged fanbase.

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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

The point of tracking it is determine its usefulness over time.  Just like every metric, nothing is going to be right every time.  Being able to find trends will help identify where potential misses will be ahead of time.  I don’t think we should throw any data point out the window without thoroughly analyzing it over time.

I remember (but could be wrong) both GOTG3 and Transformers having higher Quorum numbers than pre-sales, AMWQ being low, and their final weeks reflective of that awareness. So I might have that correlation backwards, in that it’s GA reflective, not fanbase/presale (which would not be a good sign for Oppy’s final week here)

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Bobzaruni Indie Sensation

Bobzaruni

Posted
Posted (edited)

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Haunted Mansion being that high is very confusing and, in my opinion, shows the inability to capture a clear picture here

A movie that is (potentially) years away from release is just 10% under Barbie too

 

 

 

Also, Barbie and Oppenheimer are both not even top 10 in Interest here

 

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Edited by Bobzaruni
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rehpyc Indie Sensation

rehpyc

Posted
Posted (edited)

T-5 Barbie

JW4: 31.1M

AtSV: 28.4M

FX: 31.9M

GoTG3: 18.5M

TLM: 27.1M

A2: 15.7M

TGM: 14.6M

L&T: 17.4M

BP2: 14.1M

NWH: 9.8M

 

T-4 Barbie

JW4: 32.0M

AtSV: 30.0M

FX: 33.3M

GoTG3: 19.6M

TLM: 28.4M

A2: 16.5M

TGM: 15.4M

L&T: 19.1M

BP2: 15.2M

NWH: 10.9M

Edited by rehpyc
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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 7/13/2023 at 4:32 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Oppenheimer Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 537 1008 53.27%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 499 1163 42.91%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
2172 199 9726 22.33% 13 49

 

2.216 Indiana Jones T-7 15.96M
0.964 AtSV T-7 16.72M
0.611 Avatar 2 T-7 10.39M
0.369 Thor L&T T-7 10.70M
1.661 Dune T-7 8.47M

Oppenheimer Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 644 1008 63.89%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 679 1383 49.10%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST 4 DAYS TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
3082 910 10509 29.33% 13 59

 

0.985 AtSV T-3 17.08M
0.615 Avatar 2 T-3 10.45M
0.427 Thor L&T T-3 12.39M
0.805 JW Dominion T-3 14.49M
1.746 Dune T-3 8.91M
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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 7/13/2023 at 4:34 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Oppenheimer Alamo Drafthouse

T-7 Thursday 92 Showings 6013 +393 13068 ATP: 17.22
1.059 Indiana Jones T-7 7.62M
1.004 Avatar 2 T-7 17.07M
0.422 Thor L&T T-7 12.25M

 

T-8 Friday 147 Showings 7140 +617 21347 ATP: 16.19
1.402 Indiana Jones T-8 23.56M
0.959 Avatar 2 T-8 34.70M
0.598 Thor L&T T-8 24.26M

 

T-9 Saturday 148 Showings 8815 +836 21778 ATP: 16.33
1.803 Indiana Jones T-9 33.50M
1.039 Avatar 2 T-9 46.05M
0.775 Thor L&T T-9 32.66M

 

T-10 Sunday 136 Showings 5765 +486 20511 ATP: 16.53
1.946 Indiana Jones T-10 35.23M
1.069 Avatar 2 T-10 39.11M
0.905 Thor L&T T-10 29.40M

Oppenheimer Alamo Drafthouse [+4 days of sales]

T-3 Thursday 100 Showings 7864 +1851 13768 ATP: 16.88
0.901 Avatar 2 T-3 15.31M
0.441 Thor L&T T-3 12.79M
0.923 JW Dominion T-3 16.62M

 

T-4 Friday 166 Showings 10332 +3192 22755 ATP: 16.01
0.915 Avatar 2 T-4 33.12M
0.659 Thor L&T T-4 26.71M
1.113 JW Dominion T-4 46.29M

 

T-5 Saturday 168 Showings 12257 +3442 23331 ATP: 16.06
0.996 Avatar 2 T-5 44.16M
0.840 Thor L&T T-5 35.37M
1.336 JW Dominion T-5 62.65M

 

T-6 Sunday 161 Showings 8748 +2983 22600 ATP: 16.24
1.056 Avatar 2 T-6 38.61M
0.989 Thor L&T T-6 32.14M
1.712 JW Dominion T-6 66.09M
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Bob-omb Straight-to-DVD

Bob-omb

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Hopefully there’s a big social media boost for Barbie during todays run. Pace kind of slowed over the past 3 days. 

How did you arrive to that conclusion? Alpha chain had a great jump in the past day: from 10k to 16k. Or what metric are you seeing? I am new into this and I only see whether it is growing quasi-exponentially. 

Also, does alpha chain represent 10% of the total DOM theaters?

Edited by Bob-omb
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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 7/13/2023 at 4:35 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Oppenheimer Emagine Entertainment

T-7 Thursday 81 Showings 1683 +39 12036
1.580 Indiana Jones T-7 11.38M
0.822 AtSV T-7 14.26M

 

T-8 Friday 148 Showings 2257 +298 22257
2.341 Indiana Jones T-8 39.33M
1.130 AtSV T-8 38.97M

 

T-9 Saturday 147 Showings 1775 +288 22060
3.487 Indiana Jones T-9 64.79M
1.670 AtSV T-9 62.45M

 

T-10 Sunday 143 Showings 929 +163 21444
4.445 Indiana Jones T-10 80.45M
2.401 AtSV T-10 75.02M

Oppenheimer Emagine Entertainment [+4 days of sales]

T-3 Thursday 82 Showings 3294 +1611 13161
1.039 AtSV T-3 18.03M

 

T-4 Friday 150 Showings 4702 +2445 23085
1.359 AtSV T-4 46.87M

 

T-5 Saturday 148 Showings 3714 +1939 22615
1.906 AtSV T-5 71.27M

 

T-6 Sunday 143 Showings 2042 +1113 21855
2.638 AtSV T-6 82.45M
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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 7/13/2023 at 4:37 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Barbie Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 367 839

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 448 1291

 

Wednesday: 998(+41)

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
2507 309 12222 20.51% 13 78

 

1.555 AtSV T-7 26.98M
2.899 TLM T-7 29.86M
0.986 Avatar 2 T-7 16.76M
0.595 Thor L&T T-7 17.26M

Barbie Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 520 839 61.98%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 765 1942 39.39%

 

Wednesday: 1115(+117)

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST 4 DAYS TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
4274 1767 16842 25.38% 13 121

 

1.722 AtSV T-3 29.87M
3.148 TLM T-3 32.42M
1.075 Avatar 2 T-3 18.28M
0.747 Thor L&T T-3 21.67M
1.408 JW Dominion T-3 25.34M
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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 7/13/2023 at 4:38 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Barbie Alamo Drafthouse

T-6 Wednesday 15 Showings 2060 +0 2067 ATP: 19.52
T-7 Thursday 192 Showings 15219 +961 24119 ATP: 23.53
0.892 Doctor Strange 2 T-7 32.11M
0.654 No Way Home T-7 32.71M

 

T-8 Friday 256 Showings 17770 +1267 33886 ATP: 15.44
1.021 Doctor Strange 2 T-8 55.88M
0.744 No Way Home T-8 53.51M

 

T-9 Saturday 260 Showings 18744 +1394 34612 ATP: 15.12
1.030 Doctor Strange 2 T-9 59.57M
0.795 No Way Home T-9 58.82M

 

T-10 Sunday 241 Showings 14156 +1060 31248 ATP: 14.98
1.490 Doctor Strange 2 T-10 57.96M
1.126 No Way Home T-10 72.33M

Barbie Alamo Drafthouse [+4 days of sales]

T-2 Wednesday 15 Showings 2061 +1 2067 ATP: 19.52
T-3 Thursday 223 Showings 17938 +2719 26510 ATP: 22.67
0.863 Doctor Strange 2 T-3 31.05M
0.700 No Way Home T-3 35.02M

 

T-4 Friday 301 Showings 23132 +5362 38141 ATP: 15.07
1.045 Doctor Strange 2 T-4 57.18M
0.850 No Way Home T-4 61.19M

 

T-5 Saturday 307 Showings 23930 +5186 38953 ATP: 14.90
1.017 Doctor Strange 2 T-5 58.77M
0.855 No Way Home T-5 63.21M

 

T-6 Sunday 313 Showings 18444 +4288 38392 ATP: 14.82
1.347 Doctor Strange 2 T-6 52.39M
1.128 No Way Home T-6 72.47M
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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 7/13/2023 at 4:39 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Barbie Emagine Entertainment

T-6 Wednesday 4 Showings 492 +4 518
T-7 Thursday 123 Showings 3898 +444 14925
2.144 AtSV T-7 37.19M
2.907 TLM T-7 29.95M

 

T-8 Friday 202 Showings 6123 +993 26501
3.065 AtSV T-8 105.73M
2.241 TLM T-8 62.42M

 

T-9 Saturday 196 Showings 3021 +502 25770
2.842 AtSV T-9 106.29M
1.496 TLM T-9 45.05M

 

T-10 Sunday 191 Showings 1482 +325 24781
3.829 AtSV T-10 119.67M
1.885 TLM T-10 51.49M

Barbie Emagine Entertainment [+4 days of sales]

T-2 Wednesday 5 Showings 616 +124 649
T-3 Thursday 139 Showings 6991 +3093 16622
2.400 AtSV T-3 41.63M
3.210 TLM T-3 33.06M

 

T-4 Friday 224 Showings 11249 +5126 30062
3.250 AtSV T-4 112.13M
2.285 TLM T-4 63.64M

 

T-5 Saturday 224 Showings 6421 +3400 30355
3.295 AtSV T-5 123.21M
1.654 TLM T-5 49.83M

 

T-6 Sunday 214 Showings 3397 +1915 28695
4.389 AtSV T-6 137.15M
2.093 TLM T-6 57.16M
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