The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[rehpyc]

Oppenheimer T-5

Ava2: 10.6M

TGM: 9.9M

Dune: 11.0M

IJ: 15.2M

FX: 21.6M

JW4: 21.1M

 

Oppenheimer T-4

Ava2: 10.7M

TGM: 10.0M

Dune: 11.2M

IJ: 15.5M

FX: 21.7M

JW4: 20.8M

Edited July 17, 2023 by rehpyc
Added T-4 TGM

[Inceptionzq]

14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

@Inceptionzq are you looking down under as well?

Yep, just posted

[Bobzaruni]

Oppenheimer might have a pretty good IM, OW as a whole is looking strong

[TheFlatLannister]

22 minutes ago, Bob-omb said:

How did you arrive to that conclusion? Alpha chain had a great jump in the past day: from 10k to 16k. Or what metric are you seeing? I am new into this and I only see whether it is growing quasi-exponentially. 

Also, does alpha chain represent 10% of the total DOM theaters?

Im not referring to Zack updates, just my market.

[Porthos]

24 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Hopefully there’s a big social media boost for Barbie during todays run. Pace kind of slowed over the past 3 days. 

 

17 minutes ago, Bob-omb said:

How did you arrive to that conclusion? Alpha chain had a great jump in the past day: from 10k to 16k. Or what metric are you seeing? I am new into this and I only see whether it is growing quasi-exponentially. 

Also, does alpha chain represent 10% of the total DOM theaters?

 

Films typically have a good to great jump from Sat-> Sun, and Barbie was no exception.  But when checking pace what @TheFlatLannister (and @M37 earlier in the day) were commenting on was pace versus other films that saw their Sat-> Sun jump.

 

I do have some thoughts on this, but I want to see Sacramento's Sun->Mon jump before really commenting on it, as there's some local factors (massive heat wave mainly) that might be putting a thumb on the scale.

 

But even before I get Mon numbers (about 9 hours from now) I do think it is safe to say that keeping up exponential growth is *HARD*, even when starting from a relatively lower base.

[Deep Wang]

Looks like my theater finally added Barbie Dolby shows and I switched mine out.  Hopefully that will provide a nice ATP boost?

 

Not just from my ticket, lol.  But I didn't think it was getting it at all, so if AMC is giving it all the Dolby screens, that should pretty good.

Edited July 17, 2023 by Deep Wang

[M37]

52 minutes ago, Bob-omb said:

How did you arrive to that conclusion? Alpha chain had a great jump in the past day: from 10k to 16k. Or what metric are you seeing? I am new into this and I only see whether it is growing quasi-exponentially.

To me, pace is measured by growth rate, which for most films continually ramps up in the last two weeks, especially from T-7 and beyond. However, that's not what we're seeing.  Here is the growth for the 3 days from T-11 to T-8 (Mon-Wed), compared to T-7 to T-4 (Fri-Sun) for Barbie

• Alpha = +34.3% / +31.1%
• Sacto = +47.8% / +38.1%
• Orlando = +26.9% / +23.7%
• Jax/Pho/Ral = +51.9% / +40.6%

Again, the actual number of sales and growth rate are still at very high levels, and the pace before was so ridiculous that it was unlikely to maintain, but the trendline is down, which ... well, lets wait and see how the next day or two of updates go

52 minutes ago, Bob-omb said:

Also, does alpha chain represent 10% of the total DOM theaters?

Charlie can give specifics, but believe its typically a bit below 25% of the domestic gross.

Edited July 17, 2023 by M37

[keysersoze123]

41 minutes ago, rehpyc said:

Oppenheimer T-5

Ava2: 10.6M

TGM: 9.9M

Dune: 11.0M

IJ: 15.2M

FX: 21.6M

JW4: 21.1M

 

Oppenheimer T-4

Ava2: 10.7M

Dune: 11.2M

IJ: 15.5M

FX: 21.7M

JW4: 20.8M

Crazy Strong. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

Santikos Tracking

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold
T-3	Barbie	PLF	18	2,054	2,054	4,320	47.55%
		Standard	51	2,292	2,292	6,717	34.12%
	Total		69	4,346	4,346	11,037	39.38%
T-4	Barbie (Fri)	PLF	31	2,359	2,359	7,370	32.01%
		Standard	42	1,882	1,882	5,728	32.86%
	Total		73	4,241	4,241	13,098	32.38%
T-5	Barbie (Sat)	PLF	30	1,860	1,860	7,216	25.78%
		Standard	40	1,358	1,358	5,599	24.25%
	Total		70	3,218	3,218	12,815	25.11%
T-6	Barbie (Sun)	PLF	31	1,188	1,188	7,370	16.12%
		Standard	42	812	812	5,724	14.19%
	Total		73	2,000	2,000	13,094	15.27%

 

Barbie Previews T-3 comps

 - Batman (Total) - .859x (18.56m)

 - TG2 (Total) - 1x (19.29m)  (one ticket away!)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 3.915x (23.49m)

 - Avatar 2 - 1.207x (20.51m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - 3.14x (19.63m)

 - JWD - .847x (15.25m)

 

Barbie Fri T-4 comps

 - Batman - .913x (31.95m)

 - TG2 - 1.192x (39m)

 - JW3 - .781x (32.48m)

 - Avatar 2 - 1.126x (40.77m)

 

Barbie Sat T-5 comps

 - Avatar 2 - .84x (37.25m)

 

Barbie Sun T-6 comps

 - Avatar 2 - .856x (31.31m)

 

Avatar OW comp - 1.02x (136.8m)

 

Edited July 17, 2023 by katnisscinnaplex
Fix OW comp

[katnisscinnaplex]

Santikos Tracking

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold
T-3	Oppenheimer	PLF	10	1,206	1,206	2,298	52.48%
		Standard	15	236	236	1,682	14.03%
	Total		25	1,442	1,442	3,980	36.23%
T-4	Oppenheimer (Fri)	PLF	19	1,716	1,716	4,367	39.29%
		Standard	24	309	309	2,646	11.68%
	Total		43	2,025	2,025	7,013	28.87%
T-5	Oppenheimer (Sat)	PLF	19	1,667	1,667	4,351	38.31%
		Standard	22	228	228	2,432	9.38%
	Total		41	1,895	1,895	6,783	27.94%
T-6	Oppenheimer (Sun)	PLF	19	1,101	1,101	4,351	25.30%
		Standard	24	145	145	2,626	5.52%
	Total		43	1,246	1,246	6,977	17.86%

 

Oppenheimer Previews T-3 comps

 - Batman (Total) - .285x (6.16m)

 - TG2 (Total) - .332x (6.4m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 1.299x (7.79m)

 - Avatar 2 - .4x (6.81m)

 - JWD - .281x (5.06m)

 - Morbius - 1.531x (8.73m)

 

Oppenheimer Fri T-4 comps

 - Batman - .436x (15.26m)

 - TG2 - .569x (18.62m)

 - JW3 - .373x (15.51m)

 - Avatar 2 - .538x (19.47m)

 

Oppenheimer Sat T-5 comps

 - Avatar 2 - .495x (21.94m)

 

Oppenheimer Sun T-6 comps

 - Avatar 2 - .533x (19.51m)

 

Avatar 2 OW comp - .488x (65.48m)

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Hopefully there’s a big social media boost for Barbie during todays run. Pace kind of slowed over the past 3 days. 

[filmlover]

Early Access for Gran Turismo on August 9.

 

Gran Turismo Early Access Fan Event at an AMC Theatre near you. (amctheatres.com)

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/16/2023 at 6:26 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

OPPENHEIMER

 

THURSDAY previews

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
103	2834	18783	15.1%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

219

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-4

 

(1.406x) of Fast X

~$10.55M THUR Previews

 

(1.083x) of Indy 5

~$7.8M THUR Previews

 

COMP AVG: $9.17M

 

Excellent jump today

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

OPPENHEIMER

 

THURSDAY previews

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
110	3126	20020	15.6%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

292

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

7

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-3

 

(1.416x) of Fast X

~$10.62M THUR Previews

 

(1.114x) of Indy 5

~$8.02 THUR Previews

 

COMP AVG: $9.32M

 

$8m previews is probably the floor. Adjusted for ATP difference, probably $10m previews.  

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/16/2023 at 6:18 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Barbie

 

Thursday

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
195	6731	35109	19.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

494

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

EA

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
9	1542	1747	88.3%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

26

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

7

 

 

COMPS

T-4

*Excludes any EA

 

(3.071x) of RoTB

~$27.0M THUR Previews

 

(3.340x) of Fast X

~$25.1M THUR Previews

 

(1.213x) of ATSV

~$21.05M THUR Previews

 

(0.882x) of GOTG 3

~$15.4M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $22.1M THUR Previews 

 

Survived Sunday! 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Barbie

 

Thursday

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
238	7693	43265	17.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

962

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

43

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

EA

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
9	1557	1747	89.1%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

15

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

7

 

 

COMPS

T-3

*Excludes any EA

 

(3.242x) of RoTB

~$28.5M THUR Previews

 

(3.484x) of Fast X

~$26.1M THUR Previews

 

(1.279x) of ATSV

~$22.19M THUR Previews

 

(0.951x) of GOTG 3

~$16.6M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $23.3M THUR Previews 

 

The most fascinating thing about this run is how Barbie is going to pass GOTG vol3 comp, but started out 0.227x...pretty nuts.

 

Based on trajectory, $25M-$27M previews looks possible 

[abracadabra1998]

On 7/16/2023 at 3:50 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Taken earlier than usual because I'm traveling today.

 

Oppenheimer (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	57	569	2681	10055	26.66

 

Comps:

1.39x Mission Impossible 7 (total)- $12.52 Million (going with circa $9 million for MI total previews, since we never heard officially what the numbers were. Also note: T-4 is when I added the Sunday Walmart deal for MI, which meant added tickets that weren't necessarily sold then. Without those, Oppy would be at 1.45x, still lost a bit of ground)

 

2.23x Indiana Jones- $16.09 Million

 

Finally losing ground against my comps, but it was overperforming anyway compared to other numbers posted here.

 

Barbie (T-4):

Day: T-4, T-3	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 19 theaters	108	1050	3949	17282	22.85
Wednesday EA: 6 theaters	6	57	1131	1221	92.63
TOTALS:	114	1107	5080	18503	27.46

 

Comps:

2.64x Mission Impossible 7 (total)- $23.73 Million

4.23x Indiana Jones- $30.48 Million (probably gonna drop this comp tomorrow lol)

1.89x Oppenheimer

 

Tracking these two daily from now on! Exciting stuff.

 

Haunted Mansion (T-11):

Day: T-11, T-10	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 17 theaters	58	4	111	7216	1.54
Wednesday EA: 2 theaters	2	7	60	380	15.79
TOTALS:	60	11	171	7596	2.25

 

Just flat here.

 

Twin Cities Previews:

 

Don't like how I keep missing my 4 PM Central mark, but traveling makes it harder to stay on track. These numbers are two hours later than usual.

 

Oppenheimer (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	61	604	3285	10364	31.7

 

Comps:

1.53x Mission Impossible 7 (total)- $13.78 Million

2.27x Indiana Jones- $16.38 Million

 

Barbie (T-3):

Day: T-3, T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 19 theaters	109	1153	5102	17351	29.4
Wednesday EA: 6 theaters	6	34	1165	1221	95.41
TOTALS:	115	1187	6267	18572	33.74

 

Comps:

2.92x Mission Impossible 7 (total)- $26.28 Million

1.91x Oppenheimer

Just Thursday--> 6.63x Don't Worry Darling- $20.57 Million

 

Good day for both, no signs of slowing down here.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/16/2023 at 6:29 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

TMNT 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-16

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
150	375	27662	1.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

7

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

EA

T-15

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
10	388	1756	22.1%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

21

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-16

*Excludes any EA

 

(0.856x) of Elemental

~$2.05M THUR Previews + gross from EA 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

TMNT 

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-15

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
150	382	27662	1.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

7

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

EA

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
10	408	1756	23.2%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

20

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-15

*With EA

 

(1.775x) of Elemental

~$4.26M TUE Previews + EA

 

(0.858x) of Elemental

~$2.1M TUE Previews 

 

AVG: $3.2M 

Edited July 17, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[Eric Prime]

5 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

The point of tracking it is determine its usefulness over time.  Just like every metric, nothing is going to be right every time.  Being able to find trends will help identify where potential misses will be ahead of time.  I don’t think we should throw any data point out the window without thoroughly analyzing it over time.

Also Oppenheimer can still easily get into the 50s in Awareness over the next few days. And in that regard, that means it has greater chances to reach higher expectations. There's a solid correlation for Quorum IMO, especially once we get to the final data point, though I know that doesn't mean causation.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/16/2023 at 6:32 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

HAUNTED MANSION

 

THURSDAY Previews 

 

T-11

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
111	1473	19452	7.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

37

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-11

 

(0.546x) of TLM

~$5.62M THUR Previews

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

HAUNTED MANSION

 

THURSDAY Previews 

 

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
111	1511	19452	7.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

38

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-10

 

(0.539x) of TLM

~$5.55M THUR Previews

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

9 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Barbie

 

Thursday

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
238	7693	43265	17.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

962

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

43

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

EA

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
9	1557	1747	89.1%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

15

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

7

 

 

COMPS

T-3

*Excludes any EA

 

(3.242x) of RoTB

~$28.5M THUR Previews

 

(3.484x) of Fast X

~$26.1M THUR Previews

 

(1.279x) of ATSV

~$22.19M THUR Previews

 

(0.951x) of GOTG 3

~$16.6M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $23.3M THUR Previews 

 

The most fascinating thing about this run is how Barbie is going to pass GOTG vol3 comp, but started out 0.227x...pretty nuts.

 

Based on trajectory, $25M-$27M previews looks possible 

Pardon my French but GOD DAMN.

[Bob Train]

10 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

TMNT 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-15

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
150	382	27662	1.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

7

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

EA

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
10	408	1756	23.2%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

20

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-15

*With EA

 

(1.775x) of Elemental

~$4.26M THUR Previews + EA

 

(0.858x) of Elemental

~$2.1M THUR Previews 

 

AVG: $3.2M 

I'm pretty sure TMNT open on a Wednesday, How is there Thursday previews if it opens on Wednesday? Or did you mean Tuesday?

Edited July 17, 2023 by Bob Train