The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[abracadabra1998]

On 7/18/2023 at 12:09 AM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Twin Cities Previews:

 

Don't like how I keep missing my 4 PM Central mark, but traveling makes it harder to stay on track. These numbers are two hours later than usual.

 

Oppenheimer (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	61	604	3285	10364	31.7

 

Comps:

1.53x Mission Impossible 7 (total)- $13.78 Million

2.27x Indiana Jones- $16.38 Million

 

Barbie (T-3):

Day: T-3, T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 19 theaters	109	1153	5102	17351	29.4
Wednesday EA: 6 theaters	6	34	1165	1221	95.41
TOTALS:	115	1187	6267	18572	33.74

 

Comps:

2.92x Mission Impossible 7 (total)- $26.28 Million

1.91x Oppenheimer

Just Thursday--> 6.63x Don't Worry Darling- $20.57 Million

 

Good day for both, no signs of slowing down here.

 

Twin Cities Previews:

 

Oppenheimer (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	76	555	3840	11957	32.12

 

Comps:

1.52x Mission Impossible 7 (total)- $13.67 Million

2.24x Indiana Jones- $16.15 Million

 

Tiny drops versus both comps, good holds since it was already overperforming.

 

Barbie (T-2):

Day: T-2, T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 19 theaters	158	1013	6115	21306	28.7
Wednesday EA: 6 theaters	6	16	1181	1221	96.72
TOTALS:	164	1029	7296	22527	32.39

 

Comps:

2.89x Mission Impossible 7 (total)- $25.97 Million

1.9x Oppenheimer

Just Thursday--> 6.41x Don't Worry Darling- $19.88 Million

 

B-A-N-A-N-A-S

[abracadabra1998]

On 7/15/2023 at 3:15 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

(Pulled these numbers last night but wasn't able to post them)

 

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (T-18):

Day: T-18, T-17, T-15	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Tuesday: 15 theaters	87	72	72	13080	0.55
Monday EA: 6 theaters	6	98	98	1190	8.24
Saturday EA: 5 theaters	5	56	56	603	9.29
TOTALS:	98	226	226	14873	1.52

 

Comp:

1.81x Haunted Mansion

 

Pleasantly surprised at how many shows are available, even with a few of the theaters I usually count missing showtimes still.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (T-14):

Day: T-14, T-13, T-11	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Tuesday: 16 theaters	93	45	117	14775	0.79
Monday EA: 7 theaters	7	47	145	1580	9.18
Saturday EA: 5 theaters	5	20	76	603	12.6
TOTALS:	105	112	338	16958	1.99

 

Comp:

2.11x Haunted Mansion

[eeetooki]

Curious question.

 

I noticed a lot of people complaining in my city about not being able to get seats for Oppenheimer. Well at least the normal seats that won't impair your viewing experience. I don't think this was such a big problem with his other movies. Why is that? I mean I remember seeing the screen numbers in this thread, and it's pretty decent typical Nolan numbers, albeit not as many as Barbie. Is Barbenheimer eating away at Oppenheimer's screen allocation?

[abracadabra1998]

19 minutes ago, eeetooki said:

Curious question.

 

I noticed a lot of people complaining in my city about not being able to get seats for Oppenheimer. Well at least the normal seats that won't impair your viewing experience. I don't think this was such a big problem with his other movies. Why is that? I mean I remember seeing the screen numbers in this thread, and it's pretty decent typical Nolan numbers, albeit not as many as Barbie. Is Barbenheimer eating away at Oppenheimer's screen allocation?

M37’s breakdown earlier in the thread sums it up better than me, but basically Barbie taking away lots of auditoriums, plus holdovers like SOF, MI7, Indy etc., getting one each. means Oppy gets basically IMAX/PLF (not even all PLF, Barbie is getting a lot of Dolby for example) then one other auditorium. Because of the runtime, that’s not a lot of screenings.
 

If you wanna see that illustrated, look at the previews I’n tracking in MSP. while Barbie previews start earlier, it’s still at a whopping more than double the number of shows that Oppy has

[eeetooki]

23 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

M37’s breakdown earlier in the thread sums it up better than me, but basically Barbie taking away lots of auditoriums, plus holdovers like SOF, MI7, Indy etc., getting one each. means Oppy gets basically IMAX/PLF (not even all PLF, Barbie is getting a lot of Dolby for example) then one other auditorium. Because of the runtime, that’s not a lot of screenings.
 

If you wanna see that illustrated, look at the previews I’n tracking in MSP. while Barbie previews start earlier, it’s still at a whopping more than double the number of shows that Oppy has

A lot of theatres are booked for the entire three weeks exclusivity period unless you want to be in the front row or outside corners. I wonder what the arrange for IMAX is after the three weeks. Gran Turismo? But they could keep some for Oppenheimer right? Wonder if this will help with Oppenheimer's legs.

[redfirebird2008]

57 minutes ago, eeetooki said:

Curious question.

 

I noticed a lot of people complaining in my city about not being able to get seats for Oppenheimer. Well at least the normal seats that won't impair your viewing experience. I don't think this was such a big problem with his other movies. Why is that? I mean I remember seeing the screen numbers in this thread, and it's pretty decent typical Nolan numbers, albeit not as many as Barbie. Is Barbenheimer eating away at Oppenheimer's screen allocation?

 

Oppenheimer is definitely getting screwed on the screen count in comparison with Nolan's earlier movies. We'll see if people are patient enough to wait and see the movie in later weeks, or if they just give up and wait for home video (or don't bother at all, lol). 

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Oppenheimer is definitely getting screwed on the screen count in comparison with Nolan's earlier movies. We'll see if people are patient enough to wait and see the movie in later weeks, or if they just give up and wait for home video (or don't bother at all, lol). 

They are definitely patient looking at how strong presales at big plexes are. I am not even getting reasonable seat at Metreon even for next Sunday :-(. 

[eeetooki]

2 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Oppenheimer is definitely getting screwed on the screen count in comparison with Nolan's earlier movies. We'll see if people are patient enough to wait and see the movie in later weeks, or if they just give up and wait for home video (or don't bother at all, lol). 

Judging from what I have seen, people are at least patient enough to constantly refresh the site for cancelled seats. That's more dedicated than a 15 year fan like me lol

[keysersoze123]

15 minutes ago, eeetooki said:

A lot of theatres are booked for the entire three weeks exclusivity period unless you want to be in the front row or outside corners. I wonder what the arrange for IMAX is after the three weeks. Gran Turismo? But they could keep some for Oppenheimer right? Wonder if this will help with Oppenheimer's legs.

Lincoln Sq is keeping it when GT opens as well. This is 1030AM in its 4th sunday :-)

 

Edited July 19, 2023 by keysersoze123

[redfirebird2008]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

They are definitely patient looking at how strong presales at big plexes are. I am not even getting reasonable seat at Metreon even for next Sunday :-(. 

 

Metreon IMAX is a very special screen with an audience that knows it's a very special screen. It's one of the 2 or 3 biggest IMAX screens in America. One of the very few that are above 75 feet tall. I would expect it to be sold out for weeks.

 

My other post was more about the treatment of this movie on regular screens at regular theaters. It's getting squeezed onto very small screens/auditoriums with very few showings. When those small screens sell out, how many of the people will bother to come back for other shows in future days/weeks...and how many of them will give up or just wait for home video? 

[LonePirate]

Please chime in if I am misreading the pre-sales numbers, but it sure looks like Barbie will have a monstrous true Friday but a noticeable decline on Saturday. Whereas Oppenheimer has a chance for Saturday to outgross its true Friday or only decline by a scant amount. Definitely looks like we're in for the biggest opening duo we've had in many years.

[keysersoze123]

Metreon actually added 3PM show on thursday recently and it immediately sold out. I think demand for Imax 70mm could last a while. BFI is also showing the same in UK. 

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Metreon actually added 3PM show on thursday recently and it immediately sold out. I think demand for Imax 70mm could last a while. BFI is also showing the same in UK. 

 

As it should be. Giant 70mm IMAX is a very special format and Nolan's team worked hard to put together a movie that actually uses this format in a way that 99.9% of movies don't use it. It's just sad that IMAX hasn't been more dedicated to the format over the last 15 years, instead pushing a watered down version of IMAX with lower quality projection and much smaller screens in the wrong aspect ratio.

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Metreon IMAX is a very special screen with an audience that knows it's a very special screen. It's one of the 2 or 3 biggest IMAX screens in America. One of the very few that are above 75 feet tall. I would expect it to be sold out for weeks.

 

My other post was more about the treatment of this movie on regular screens at regular theaters. It's getting squeezed onto very small screens/auditoriums with very few showings. When those small screens sell out, how many of the people will bother to come back for other shows in future days/weeks...and how many of them will give up or just wait for home video? 

Even digital sales are quite strong now. All prime time shows are 60%+ full at big plexes. its presales is not just strong for previews. Its crazy strong through the weekend. My Sunday check yesterday afternoon had it slightly below Barbie on ticket numbers but still up on $ value. That is insane considering how much crazy the Barbie buzz is. So I expect it to play very strong for weeks especially with the reception being so strong and its ensemble will pull in audience who otherwise might not be amenable to seeing a 3 hour drama on big screen. 

 

Anyway I dont want to make this a discussion thread on Oppy. Anything further let us take it in its own thread. 

 

FYI Barbie show count has increased dramatically. There is no reason for it to miss the biggest 3 day weekend this year.  Oppy friday show count is > 2x thursday and so it should have great IM for sure. 

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

 

Oppenheimer Friday and Saturday

 

Friday
Theaters - 425
Showings - 3,253
Sold - 148,221
Total - 597,488
ATP - $17.01
 

Saturday
Theaters - 425
Showings - 3,220
Sold - 145,688
Total - 595,163
ATP - $16.34
 

THU comp with Dune is reasonable $9M ish. FRI is $29M!!!!!!!

[MrPink]

32 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said:

THU comp with Dune is reasonable $9M ish. FRI is $29M!!!!!!!

 

29m being True FRI or combined with previews?

[keysersoze123]

6 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

29m being True FRI or combined with previews?

Nope. Just friday :-)

[redfirebird2008]

6 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

29m being True FRI or combined with previews?

 

I assume he means with previews included. That type of number would give it a pretty decent chance of going above $65M for the weekend. 

[ringedmortality]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Nope. Just friday 🙂

 

80M opening weekend let's go.

[keysersoze123]

I am not even able to reasonable extrapolation of data as I am getting ridiculous numbers. If there were no Barbie and Oppenheimer got all PLF it would have opened to 100m+ !!!!