The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[eeetooki]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

Oppenheimer Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	80	7569	10682	3113	29.14%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	126
Total Seats Sold Today	302

NOTE:  Regal Delta Shores was sampled at approx 6am PDT - all other showings were sampled at 11:45pm Tue night.

 

T-2 Comps:

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	139.60		349	2230		0/176	22255/24485	9.11%		3737	83.30%		8.65m
Dune	178.70		235	1742		0/109	13069/14811	11.76%		2915	106.79%		9.11m
JWD	45.39		796	6859		0/288	26655/33514	20.47%		10966	28.39%		8.17m
BP2	26.10		879	11927		2/375	31211/43138	27.65%		16800	18.53%		7.31m
Ava 2	49.65		723	6270		0/296	27849/34119	18.38%		8986	34.64%		8.44m
Wick 4	97.31		552	3199		0/166	17433/20632	15.51%		5448	57.14%		8.66m
FX	130.63		327	2383		0/235	30517/32900	7.24%		4122	75.52%		9.80m
Indy 5	107.64		367	2892		0/169	21180/24072	12.01%		4767	65.30%		7.75m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Oppenheimer's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:       773/3390  [22.80% sold]
Matinee:          28/81  [34.57% | 0.90% of all tickets sold]
----    
70mm:                       707/776 [+9 tickets] [22.71% of all tickets sold]
All other PLF:    1542/4620 [+143 tickets] [49.53% of all tickets sold]
Standard:            864/5286 [+150 tickets] [27.75% of all tickets sold]

 

=========

 

This was a really meh Tuesday, unfortunately. :---/.

 

Don't know if it was due to lack of screen expansion (literally one — ONE!!! — theater expanded, and that at exactly two showings) or Barbie hogging all the glory or other factors like the in-built fanbase of Nolan finally catching up to the film or it was just a randomly meh day.

 

Can't sugar coat it though.  Just not a great day locally.

 

NB: As noted, Regal Delta Shores was sampled a little after 6am local time, which is so early into the day as to not matter, IMO.

 

The lack of screen expansion is definitely an issue. Constantly seeing people complaining about not being able to grab normal, non view impairing seats. And then I guess a lot of places don't have their schedule up for more than one or two weeks at a time. People are still waiting for their local theatres to release more showtimes and seats.

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

Cobweb T-2: 14.75% Awareness

The Last Voyage of the Demeter: 19.39% Awareness
White Bird T-37: 10.42% Awareness

Dumb Money T-65:

Napoleon T-126: 20.18% Awareness

Wonka T-149: 45.87% Awareness

 

Barbie T-2: 74.02% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 90M, 75% chance of 100M, 25% chance of 200M

 

Oppenheimer T-2: 46.42% Awareness

Final Awareness: 35% chance of 30M, 19% chance of 40M, 8% chance of 70M

Original - High Awareness: 40% chance of 30M

 

Haunted Mansion T-9: 53.06% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 89% chance of 20M, 78% chance of 30M, 44% chance of 40M, 33% chance of 50M

Known IP Awareness: 100% chance of 40M

 

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 T-51: 28.04% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 55% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 31% chance of 10M

 

Dumb Money T-65: 13.06% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 21% chance of 10M

Original - High Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

[katnisscinnaplex]

20 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold
T-2	Barbie	PLF	18	329	2,383	4,320	55.16%
		Standard	67	722	3,014	8,909	33.83%
	Total		85	1,051	5,397	13,229	40.80%
T-3	Barbie (Fri)	PLF	37	657	3,016	8,852	34.07%
		Standard	98	475	2,357	12,642	18.64%
	Total		135	1,132	5,373	21,494	25.00%
T-4	Barbie (Sat)	PLF	36	449	2,309	8,692	26.56%
		Standard	98	347	1,705	12,797	13.32%
	Total		134	796	4,014	21,489	18.68%
T-5	Barbie (Sun)	PLF	37	273	1,461	8,846	16.52%
		Standard	100	256	1,068	12,819	8.33%
	Total		137	529	2,529	21,665	11.67%

 

Barbie Previews T-2 comps (Excl EA)

 - Batman (Thu) - 1.048x (18.44m)

 - TG2 (Thu) - 1.492x (21.93m) 

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 4.043x (24.26m)

 - Avatar 2 - 1.328x (22.58m)

 - Sonic 2 (Thu) - 5.37x (26.74m)

 - JWD - .875x (15.74m)

 

Barbie + EA T-2 comps

 - Batman (Total) - 1.055x (22.79m)

 - TG2 (Total) - 1.183x (22.84m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 4.422x (26.53m)

 - Avatar 2 - 1.453x (24.7m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - 3.237x (20.23m)

 - JWD - .957x (17.22m)

 

Barbie Fri T-3 comps

 - Batman - 1.001x (35.03m)

 - TG2 - 1.304x (42.66m)

 - JW3 - .805x (33.47m)

 - Avatar 2 - 1.24x (44.9m)

 

Barbie Sat T-4 comps

 - Avatar 2 - .94x (41.66m)

 

Barbie Sun T-5 comps

 - Avatar 2 - .975x (35.67m)

 

Avatar OW comp - 1.13x (152.14m)

 

Awesome day all around.  Added 206 shows for the full weekend (+72%!) and a couple of theaters hadn't finished setting up for the weekend yet so more to come.   

Santikos Tracking

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold
T-0	Barbie (EA)	PLF	2	7	370	376	98.40%
		Standard	1	0	144	145	99.31%
	Total		3	7	514	521	98.66%
T-1	Barbie	PLF	21	193	2,576	4,785	53.83%
		Standard	83	812	3,826	10,589	36.13%
	Total		104	1,005	6,402	15,374	41.64%
T-2	Barbie (Fri)	PLF	42	356	3,372	9,627	35.03%
		Standard	136	748	3,105	16,581	18.73%
	Total		178	1,104	6,477	26,208	24.71%
T-3	Barbie (Sat)	PLF	41	417	2,726	9,467	28.79%
		Standard	135	451	2,156	16,613	12.98%
	Total		176	868	4,882	26,080	18.72%
T-4	Barbie (Sun)	PLF	42	214	1,675	9,621	17.41%
		Standard	138	199	1,267	16,656	7.61%
	Total		180	413	2,942	26,277	11.20%

 

 

Barbie Previews T-1 comps (Excl EA)

 - Batman (Thu) - 1.062x (18.69m)

 - TG2 (Thu) - 1.549x (22.77m) 

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 4.141x (24.85m)

 - Avatar 2 - 1.348x (23.53m)

 - Sonic 2 (Thu) - 4.204x (20.93m)

 - JWD - .882x (15.87m)

 

Barbie + EA T-1 comps

 - Batman (Total) - 1.069x (23.089m)

 - TG2 (Total) - 1.276x (24.62m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 4.473x (26.84m)

 - Avatar 2 - 1.495x (25.42m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - 3.202x (20.01m)

 - JWD - .952x (17.14m)

 

Barbie Fri T-2 comps

 - Batman - 1.006x (35.01m)

 - TG2 - 1.32x (43.19m)

 - JW3 - .784x (32.59m)

 - Avatar 2 - 1.264x (45.77m)

 

Barbie Sat T-3 comps

 - Avatar 2 - 1.001x (44.37m)

 

Barbie Sun T-4 comps

 - Avatar 2 - .993x (36.33m)

 

Avatar OW comp - 1.206x (161.78m)

 

Another 30% increase in shows for the weekend.  I remember why I hardly ever track Santikos anymore.  Based on Santikos, I'd put Thu previews at 21.5m.  Weekend sales are almost exactly like Avatar 2 while previews and Fri are well ahead.   Looking good to have a strong multiplier. 

[redfirebird2008]

12 minutes ago, eeetooki said:

 

The lack of screen expansion is definitely an issue. Constantly seeing people complaining about not being able to grab normal, non view impairing seats. And then I guess a lot of places don't have their schedule up for more than one or two weeks at a time. People are still waiting for their local theatres to release more showtimes and seats.

 

Paramount seems to have squeezed a pretty good deal out of the theater owners. I noticed ScreenX and 4DX at one theater that are still playing MI7 on Friday and beyond, instead of Barbie or Oppenheimer.

 

Somehow MI7 has more showtimes than Oppenheimer, which doesn't make sense. Both movies are very long, so it's not a runtime difference in those 2 movies. It seems extremely unlikely that MI7 will have more demand, so how do the theaters justify the screencount difference in those 2 movies? I assume it's due to contractual obligations. 

[reddevil19]

Just now, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Paramount seems to have squeezed a pretty good deal out of the theater owners. I noticed ScreenX and 4DX at one theater that are still playing MI7 on Friday and beyond, instead of Barbie or Oppenheimer.

 

Somehow MI7 has more showtimes than Oppenheimer, which doesn't make sense. Both movies are very long, so it's not a runtime difference in those 2 movies. It seems extremely unlikely that MI7 will have more demand, so how do the theaters justify the screencount difference in those 2 movies? I assume it's due to contractual obligations. 

Probably - so I expect it will be NEXT weekend that sees MI7 bleeding screens heavily. If Oppie opens high enough (60+) and looks ok on the weekdays, I think it will get a fair share of those screens.

[MrPink]

2 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Paramount seems to have squeezed a pretty good deal out of the theater owners. I noticed ScreenX and 4DX at one theater that are still playing MI7 on Friday and beyond, instead of Barbie or Oppenheimer.

 

Somehow MI7 has more showtimes than Oppenheimer, which doesn't make sense. Both movies are very long, so it's not a runtime difference in those 2 movies. It seems extremely unlikely that MI7 will have more demand, so how do the theaters justify the screencount difference in those 2 movies? I assume it's due to contractual obligations. 

 

I assume the main reason for this is that Oppenheimer was not formatted for either ScreenX/4DX

[ZackM]

Some of these theaters need to figure out a way to get Oppy some more shows.  Basically the whole weekend is packed.  There's a ton of demand.

[keysersoze123]

thursday is the least important day for Oppy. Its doing great entire weekend. IM is going to be huge and probably the biggest of all big openers in a while. 

[redfirebird2008]

Just now, reddevil19 said:

Probably - so I expect it will be NEXT weekend that sees MI7 bleeding screens heavily. If Oppie opens high enough (60+) and looks ok on the weekdays, I think it will get a fair share of those screens.

 

Or Barbie will get them, ha. Paramount really screwed the pooch with this release date. They'll get some collateral damage by hurting other movies, but their movie is going to be hurt in a major way too. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold
T-2	Oppenheimer	PLF	10	51	1,257	2,298	54.70%
		Standard	19	105	341	2,013	16.94%
	Total		29	156	1,598	4,311	37.07%
T-3	Oppenheimer (Fri)	PLF	21	157	1,887	4,763	39.62%
		Standard	29	63	358	2,917	12.27%
	Total		50	220	2,245	7,680	29.23%
T-4	Oppenheimer (Sat)	PLF	21	149	1,826	4,747	38.47%
		Standard	29	81	299	2,919	10.24%
	Total		50	230	2,125	7,666	27.72%
T-5	Oppenheimer (Sun)	PLF	21	129	1,232	4,747	25.95%
		Standard	31	39	182	3,114	5.84%
	Total		52	168	1,414	7,861	17.99%

 

Oppenheimer Previews T-2 comps

 - Batman (Total) - .286x (6.17m)

 - TG2 (Total) - .32x (6.18m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 1.197x (7.18m)

 - Avatar 2 - .393x (6.68m)

 - JWD - .259x (4.66m)

 - Morbius - 1.405x (8.01m)

 

Oppenheimer Fri T-3 comps

 - Batman - .418x (14.64m)

 - TG2 - .545x (17.83m)

 - JW3 - .336x (13.99m)

 - Avatar 2 - .518x (18.76m)

 

Oppenheimer Sat T-4 comps

 - Avatar 2 - .498x (22.05m)

 

Oppenheimer Sun T-5 comps

 - Avatar 2 - .545x (19.94m)

 

Avatar 2 OW comp - .484x (64.87m)

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold
T-1	Oppenheimer	PLF	12	107	1,396	2,694	51.82%
		Standard	23	159	468	2,033	23.02%
	Total		35	266	1,864	4,727	39.43%
T-2	Oppenheimer (Fri)	PLF	21	157	2,044	4,763	42.91%
		Standard	50	238	596	4,729	12.60%
	Total		71	395	2,640	9,492	27.81%
T-3	Oppenheimer (Sat)	PLF	21	236	2,062	4,747	43.44%
		Standard	47	181	480	4,414	10.87%
	Total		68	417	2,542	9,161	27.75%
T-4	Oppenheimer (Sun)	PLF	21	159	1,391	4,747	29.30%
		Standard	51	113	295	4,767	6.19%
	Total		72	272	1,686	9,514	17.72%

 

Oppenheimer Previews T-1 comps

 - Batman (Total) - .288x (6.22m)

 - TG2 (Total) - .344x (6.64m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 1.206x (7.23m)

 - Avatar 2 - .403x (6.85m)

 - JWD - .257x (4.62m)

 - Morbius - 1.307x (7.45m)

 

Oppenheimer Fri T-2 comps

 - Batman - .41x (14.35m)

 - TG2 - .538x (17.6m)

 - JW3 - .319x (13.28m)

 - Avatar 2 - .515x (18.65m)

 

Oppenheimer Sat T-3 comps

 - Avatar 2 - .521x (23.1m)

 

Oppenheimer Sun T-4 comps

 - Avatar 2 - .569x (20.82m)

 

Avatar 2 OW comp - .497x (66.58m)

 

Capacity really an issue here, but that's helping out the weekend just like other areas.  Looking like we might get a disappointing number for previews with Santikos pointing to around 7.5 after accounting for the huge PLF presence.

[reddevil19]

Just now, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Or Barbie will get them, ha. Paramount really screwed the pooch with this release date. They'll get some collateral damage by hurting other movies, but their movie is going to be hurt in a major way too. 

Undoubtedly Barbie will be the main to benefit, but it already had a huge expansion this weekend. There certainly seems to be more room to grow for Oppenheimer given its restraints, so it really depends on how the numbers stack up through Wednesday next week. If the reception is good and demand still there, Oppenheimer will see an expansion as well.

[redfirebird2008]

7 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Undoubtedly Barbie will be the main to benefit, but it already had a huge expansion this weekend. There certainly seems to be more room to grow for Oppenheimer given its restraints, so it really depends on how the numbers stack up through Wednesday next week. If the reception is good and demand still there, Oppenheimer will see an expansion as well.

 

Gonna be a rough couple weekends for MI7. It's gonna get nailed pretty hard this weekend by the 2 brand new movies, and next weekend gonna get hit pretty hard in screen count when some of the contractual stuff expires. I don't know why they didn't pick a different release date. At one point they planned it for September 2022. Why not move it to September 2023? 

[reddevil19]

Just now, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Gonna be a rough couple weekends for MI7. It's gonna get nailed pretty hard this weekend by the 2 brand new movies, and next weekend gonna get hit pretty hard in screen count when some of the contractual stuff expires. I don't know why they didn't pick a different release date. At one point they planned it for September 2022. Why not move it to September 2023? 

Ya, Paramount screwed the pooch badly on this one I feel - marketing was uninspired and the release date (especially seeing how August looks) was also poor. Hell, imagine Indy 5 actually being great and doing numbers similar to Crystal Skull - that would have hobbled MI7 even more.

[eeetooki]

2 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Gonna be a rough couple weekends for MI7. It's gonna get nailed pretty hard this weekend by the 2 brand new movies, and next weekend gonna get hit pretty hard in screen count when some of the contractual stuff expires. I don't know why they didn't pick a different release date. At one point they planned it for September 2022. Why not move it to September 2023? 

I guess nobody expected both Barbie and Oppenheimer to exceed expectations at the time.

[ZackM]

I haven't really been keeping up with comps, but I thought it would be nice to see where Oppy is.

 

I've included 3 comps that all behaved pretty different, especially with regards to indexing.  I imagine all 3 will drop a little bit by D0 due to screen constraints.

 

Oppenheimer Comps
	Indy 5		Jurassic World: Dominion		The Flash
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2	$12.8	$13.1	$16.0	$17.2	$11.0	$11.2
T-3	$12.9	$13.1	$16.1	$17.2	$11.1	$11.2
T-4	$12.7	$13.0	$15.9	$17.1	$10.9	$11.0
T-5	$12.6	$12.9	$15.9	$17.1	$10.6	$10.7
T-6	$12.5	$12.8	$16.1	$17.3
T-7	$12.4	$12.7	$16.2	$17.4
T-8	$12.0	$12.3	$15.9	$17.1	$10.0	$10.1
T-9	$11.8	$12.1	$15.8	$17.0	$9.8	$9.9
T-10	$11.4	$11.8	$15.4	$16.6	$9.1	$9.2
T-11	$11.0	$11.4	$14.9	$16.0
T-12	$10.8	$11.2	$14.6	$15.8
T-13	$10.6	$11.0	$14.4	$15.5
T-14	$10.5	$10.9	$14.2	$15.3
T-15	$10.4	$10.8	$14.1	$15.2	$8.5	$8.5

[DC Rich]

23 minutes ago, ZackM said:

I haven't really been keeping up with comps, but I thought it would be nice to see where Oppy is.

 

I've included 3 comps that all behaved pretty different, especially with regards to indexing.  I imagine all 3 will drop a little bit by D0 due to screen constraints.

 

Oppenheimer Comps
	Indy 5		Jurassic World: Dominion		The Flash
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2	$12.8	$13.1	$16.0	$17.2	$11.0	$11.2
T-3	$12.9	$13.1	$16.1	$17.2	$11.1	$11.2
T-4	$12.7	$13.0	$15.9	$17.1	$10.9	$11.0
T-5	$12.6	$12.9	$15.9	$17.1	$10.6	$10.7
T-6	$12.5	$12.8	$16.1	$17.3
T-7	$12.4	$12.7	$16.2	$17.4
T-8	$12.0	$12.3	$15.9	$17.1	$10.0	$10.1
T-9	$11.8	$12.1	$15.8	$17.0	$9.8	$9.9
T-10	$11.4	$11.8	$15.4	$16.6	$9.1	$9.2
T-11	$11.0	$11.4	$14.9	$16.0
T-12	$10.8	$11.2	$14.6	$15.8
T-13	$10.6	$11.0	$14.4	$15.5
T-14	$10.5	$10.9	$14.2	$15.3
T-15	$10.4	$10.8	$14.1	$15.2	$8.5	$8.5

 

Thanks for this. I always found these helpful and have really missed them. 

[keysersoze123]

28 minutes ago, ZackM said:

I haven't really been keeping up with comps, but I thought it would be nice to see where Oppy is.

 

I've included 3 comps that all behaved pretty different, especially with regards to indexing.  I imagine all 3 will drop a little bit by D0 due to screen constraints.

 

Oppenheimer Comps
	Indy 5		Jurassic World: Dominion		The Flash
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2	$12.8	$13.1	$16.0	$17.2	$11.0	$11.2
T-3	$12.9	$13.1	$16.1	$17.2	$11.1	$11.2
T-4	$12.7	$13.0	$15.9	$17.1	$10.9	$11.0
T-5	$12.6	$12.9	$15.9	$17.1	$10.6	$10.7
T-6	$12.5	$12.8	$16.1	$17.3
T-7	$12.4	$12.7	$16.2	$17.4
T-8	$12.0	$12.3	$15.9	$17.1	$10.0	$10.1
T-9	$11.8	$12.1	$15.8	$17.0	$9.8	$9.9
T-10	$11.4	$11.8	$15.4	$16.6	$9.1	$9.2
T-11	$11.0	$11.4	$14.9	$16.0
T-12	$10.8	$11.2	$14.6	$15.8
T-13	$10.6	$11.0	$14.4	$15.5
T-14	$10.5	$10.9	$14.2	$15.3
T-15	$10.4	$10.8	$14.1	$15.2	$8.5	$8.5

Can you do it for Friday as well as you have tracked fridays for all these movies 

[ZackM]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Can you do it for Friday as well as you have tracked fridays for all these movies 

 

I'll take a look when I get home from work, but it might be tough since I don't keep those numbers in a neat reference table.

[keysersoze123]

23 minutes ago, ZackM said:

 

I'll take a look when I get home from work, but it might be tough since I don't keep those numbers in a neat reference table.

Thank you. Reason I bring it up is that Friday showtimes are way better and so its not constrained that much. PS is not that far off A2 and JWD !!!.

[el sid]

Barbie, counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 809 (13 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 1.432 (18 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 392 (20 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 454 (10 showtimes, a very good number for that theater)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 552 (13 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 1.390 (17 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 1.646 (23 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 6.675.

Comps (all five films counted on Wednesday of the release week for Friday): TLC (9M true Friday) had 519 sold tickets,
TLM (27.7M) had 2.112 (TLM finally had 2.523 sold tickets and Barbie should have at least around 7.5k sold tickets by tomorrow so the factor 3 will stay which is more than astonishing),
JC (10.7M) had 655,

Minions 2 (37.4M) had 2.018
and Sonic 2 (20.55M) had 1.484 sold tickets.
JWD finally (= counted on Thursday for Friday) had 5.623 sold tickets.
Thor 4 finally had 6.946 sold tickets for Friday.
And GotG 3 also finally had 4.484 sold tickets for Friday.

The number I get from the comps can't be true (or could it be true? ). Of course the comparison number for Barbie will be (slightly) down tomorrow because on a lower level it's way easier to have a good jump.  
I wait till I see the Thursday jump before I say an OW numbers. But very very probably 150M is too low IMO.