The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[charlie Jatinder]

Decent day in the end for Meh. Was thinking $3M since Monday but yday was bad, decent recovery today.

[djbayko]

2 hours ago, across the Jat verse said:

Decent day in the end for Meh. Was thinking $3M since Monday but yday was bad, decent recovery today.

 

What a wonderful typo.

[M37]

7 hours ago, DAJK said:

I don’t know about you guys but Meg 2’s walkup % today is unlike anything I’ve seen all summer…

It’s the typical Creature Feature (Jurassic) audience, but without the big IP name (nor PLF) to grab a lot of advance sales, so it’s all walk-ups. Probably similar to Transformers, though Insidious is the walk-up king for the summer 

[MovieMan89]

Not sure if I should drop this here, but Nintendo’s quarterly sales report apparently came with worldwide admissions sales for the Mario movie. They are claiming 168 million. This is massive, since when do we ever get an actual admissions number for a blockbuster, especially worldwide?

 

Or rather their exact wording in the report is that the box office numbers stand at “168.10 million viewers” (and then the gross is listed). Though I would imagine they are just using viewers as a substitute word for tix since obviously unique viewers would be impossible to determine. 

Edited August 4, 2023 by MovieMan89

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 7/28/2023 at 8:28 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Link to last week's post

 

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Barbie	3,336	115,871	-14.20%	110,444	1,003.84	5,427	0	0
Haunted Mansion	3,056	73,105		68,259		4,846	0	0
Oppenheimer	3,062	56,181	-13.06%	50,473	1,100.87	5,708	4,029	0
Talk to Me	2,113	37,809		37,792		17	0	0
Sound of Freedom	2,659	32,273	-12.68%	32,252	536.39	21	0	0
Mission: Impossible 7	2,625	30,602	-39.66%	30,383	381.61	219	0	0
Indiana Jones 5	1,717	15,595	-43.20%	15,572	243.24	23	0	0
Elemental	1,671	14,003	-49.45%	13,586	206.63	417	0	411
Insidious 6	1,588	13,991	-51.68%	13,985	229.16	6	0	0
The First Slam Dunk	539	6,041		6,041		0	0	0
Spider-Verse 2	639	4,009	-62.00%	4,009	273.30	0	0	0

 

US Showtime Report Sample*

*Not all theaters are accounted for

OW Showtimes Comps

Haunted Mansion - 73,105 (3,056 TC)

 - Addams Family 2 - 68,219 (3,204)

 - Strange World - 71,743 (3,406)

 - Puss in Boots 2 - 71,525 (3,434)

 

Talk to Me - 37,809 (2,113)*

 - Last Night in Soho - 37,843 (2,701)

 - Antlers - 36,968 (2,572)

 - Reminiscence - 37,739 (2,931)

 

Talk to Me sample is well above the 1900 reported TC, so expect that to rise with actuals.  With Canada it should be ~2300

 

T-1 Week Showtime Comps

TMNT 7/29 EA - 691 (642 TC)

TMNT 7/31 EA - 526 (492 TC) (317 PLF)

TMNT 5-Day - 89,925 (2,662 TC) (13,668 previews)

 - M:I 7 5-Day - 117,939 (2,992) (16,525 previews)

 - Strange World 5-Day - 64,162 (2,768) (5,517 previews)

 - Puss in Boots - 59,985 (2,877) (no previews)

 

TMNT 3-Day - 39,056 (2,105 TC) (excludes previews)

 - Sonic 2 (F-Su) - 41,892 (2,764)

 - Dragon Ball Super (F-Su) - 39,419 (2,460)

 - Dune (F-Su) - 38,300 (2,771)

 

The Meg 2 - 38,093 (1,911 TC) (7,486 previews)

 - Lost City - 38,802 (2,634) (6,823 previews)

 - Haunted Mansion - 41,831 (2,393) (8,100 previews)

 - TMNT (3-Day) - 39,056 (2,105) (no previews)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtime Comps

Gran Turismo 8/2 EA - 100

Gran Turismo 8/8 IMAX EA - 130

Gran Turismo 8/9 EA - 725 (663)

Gran Turismo - 7,244 (1,832 TC)

 - Uncharted - 7,459 (2,177)

 - Dragon Ball Super - 7,254 (2,180)

 - Super Pets - 7,321 (1,843)

 

The Last Voyage of the Demeter - 3,037 (1,278 TC)

 - Firestarter - 2,811 (1,150)

 - The Menu - 3,316 (1,418)

 - Missing - 2,800 (1,182)

 

T-3 Week Previews Showtime Comps

Strays (8/14 Alamo EA) - 32

Strays (8/16 EA) - 746

Strays - 3,870 (1,394 TC)

 - 80 for Brady - 3,779 (1,353)

 - Dungeons & Dragons - 4,074 (959)

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Barbie	3,271	84,803	-26.81%	83,606	802.72	1,197	0	0
Ninja Turtles	3,153	74,466		56,265		18,201	0	12,106
Meg 2: The Trench	2,826	67,894		51,314		16,580	0	11,859
Oppenheimer	2,969	42,208	-24.87%	37,970	831.34	4,238	3,806	0
Haunted Mansion	2,982	40,272	-34.90%	40,186	329.42	86	0	0
Talk to Me	2,086	28,391	-12.13%	28,376	275.91	15	0	0
Sound of Freedom	2,346	25,705	-20.35%	25,693	397.05	12	0	0
Mission: Impossible 7	2,004	20,403	-33.33%	20,346	346.39	57	0	0
Elemental	848	5,860	-58.15%	5,690	248.02	170	0	164
Theater Camp	509	5,404		5,404		0	0	0
Indiana Jones 5	864	5,291	-66.07%	5,285	254.78	6	0	0
Insidious 6	672	4,154	-70.31%	4,154	229.50	0	0	0

 

US Showtime Report Sample*

*Not all theaters are accounted for

OW Showtimes Comps

TMNT 3-Day - 74,466 (3,153 TC) (excludes previews)

 - Free Guy (F-Su) - 72,131 (3,318)

 - Uncharted (F-Su) - 73,998 (3,358)

 - Dune (F-Su) - 72,784 (3,318)

 - The Lost City (F-Su) - 71,896 (3,443)

 - Puss in Boots (F-Su) - 71,525 (3,434)

 - Super Pets (F-Su) - 77,320 (3,390)

 

The Meg 2 - 67,894 (2,826 TC) (11,451 previews)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 65,207 (3,216) (7,894 previews)

 - Don't Worry Darling - 66,697 (3,387) (9,054 previews)

 - Insidious 6 - 63,877 (2,774) (9,617 previews)

 

T-1 Week Showtime Comps

The Last Voyage of the Demeter - 21,520 (1,552 TC) (3,572 previews)

 - Last Night in Soho - 20,306 (1,787) (2,672 previews)

 - The Northman - 22,383 (1,935) (2,770 previews)

 - Prey for the Devil - 23,020 (1,732) (3,300 previews)

 - Talk to Me - 23,247 (1,431) (3,711 previews)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtime Comps

Strays (8/14 Alamo EA) - 32

Strays (8/16 EA) - 835

Strays - 4,756 (1,745 TC)

 - Easter Sunday - 4,712 (1,706)

 - Cocaine Bear - 4,967 (2,029)

 

Blue Beetle - 7,943 (1,726 TC)

 - Halloween Ends - 7,934 (2,126)

 - Bullet Train - 8,244 (1,877)

 - Haunted Mansion - 7,500 (2,108)

 - Uncharted - 7,459 (2,177)

Edited August 4, 2023 by katnisscinnaplex
Add PSAs

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

Lol Haunted Mansion got nuked in the PLFs, also I'm surprised Elemental still has a fair few given the number of showings it's lost over the last few weeks

[M37]

11 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Not sure if I should drop this here, but Nintendo’s quarterly sales report apparently came with worldwide admissions sales for the Mario movie. They are claiming 168 million. This is massive, since when do we ever get an actual admissions number for a blockbuster, especially worldwide?

Would be a World Wide ATP of right around $8 US, so could be an estimate rather than a true count. But at least gives some context (with a lot of variability) for translating WW$ to admits

 

Avatar 200M+, TGM ~150M, Barbie probably going to end up in similar range  

[M37]

7 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

Lol Haunted Mansion got nuked in the PLFs, also I'm surprised Elemental still has a fair few given the number of showings it's lost over the last few weeks

Mansion basically only had Dolbys, which have given way to TMNT & Meg 2 for this weekend. Also I believe (and @katnisscinnaplex can correct me if not), both IMAX and 3D are subsets of the total PLF count. So all but 6 of Elemental’s PLF shows are just 3D 

 

And (not shown?), both Indy and Insidious losing over 60% of shows from last week; big drops incoming 

[katnisscinnaplex]

19 minutes ago, M37 said:

Mansion basically only had Dolbys, which have given way to TMNT & Meg 2 for this weekend. Also I believe (and @katnisscinnaplex can correct me if not), both IMAX and 3D are subsets of the total PLF count. So all but 6 of Elemental’s PLF shows are just 3D 

 

And (not shown?), both Indy and Insidious losing over 60% of shows from last week; big drops incoming 

Yes, that's correct.

 

Show drops have been fixed and I added PSAs.  Got up too early this morning I guess.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/3/2023 at 8:06 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Gran Turismo (EA)	T-5	Jax	2	2	0	8	841	0.95%
	T-6	Jax	5	7	5	85	960	8.85%
		Phx	1	1	4	48	208	23.08%
		Ral	1	1	4	21	261	8.05%
	Total		7	9	13	154	1,429	10.78%
Last Voyage	T-7	Jax	5	12	3	21	1,387	1.51%
		Phx	5	14	3	11	1,138	0.97%
		Ral	6	15	8	18	1,361	1.32%
	Total		16	41	14	50	3,886	1.29%

 

Last Voyage T-7 comps

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Black Phone - .424x (1.1m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - .467x (678k)

 - Northman - .316x (427k)

 - Green Knight - 1.19x (893k)

 - Talk to Me - 1.111x (1.38m)

 - Beast - 1.111x (1.03m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.04m

 

Could this reach 1m for previews?  Renfield did 900k with EA.  First day I tracked that was T-2 when it had 185 tickets sold (including EA).  I guess it's possible, but I'm more in the 800k camp at the moment.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Gran Turismo (EA)	T-4	Jax	2	2	0	8	841	0.95%
	T-5	Jax	5	7	16	101	960	10.52%
		Phx	1	1	18	66	208	31.73%
		Ral	1	1	11	32	261	12.26%
	Total		7	9	45	199	1,429	13.93%
Last Voyage	T-6	Jax	5	12	0	21	1,387	1.51%
		Phx	5	14	6	17	1,138	1.49%
		Ral	6	15	-1	17	1,361	1.25%
	Total		16	41	5	55	3,886	1.42%

 

Last Voyage T-6 comps

 - Black Phone - .407x (1.06m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - .43x (623k)

 - Northman - .306x (413k)

 - Green Knight - 1.1x (825k)

 - Talk to Me - 1.02x (1.27m)

 - Beast - 1.122x (1.04m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.01m

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/3/2023 at 8:22 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Blue Beetle	T-14	Jax	4	30	7	30	4,950	0.61%
		Phx	5	37	6	36	6,488	0.55%
		Ral	5	16	14	39	2,954	1.32%
	Total		14	83	27	105	14,392	0.73%
Strays	T-14	Jax	6	15	3	12	1,897	0.63%
		Phx	5	20	0	13	2,081	0.62%
		Ral	6	18	2	20	2,703	0.74%
	Total		17	53	5	45	6,681	0.67%
Strays (EA)	T-13	Jax	3	3	0	3	352	0.85%
		Phx	3	3	0	0	403	0.00%
		Ral	4	4	2	2	506	0.40%
	Total		10	10	2	5	1,261	0.40%

 

Strays (Total) T-14 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 4.55x (2.27m)

 - Joy Ride (Total) - 1.087x (1.2m)

 - 80 for Brady (Total) - 1.389x (1.04m)

 - Cocaine Bear - .439x (877k)

 - Violent Night - 1.667x (1.83m) 

 - Turtles (Total) - .105x (580k)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.22m

 

Blue Beetle day 2 comps

 - Black Widow - .138x (1.82m)

 - Eternals - .119x (1.13m)

 - Shang-Chi - .165x (1.45m)

 

Maybe comp isn't the right word, because these movies aren't really comparable.  Here are some movies that may end up being closer comps:

 

 - Cocaine Bear - .921x (1.84m)

 - Bullet Train - .83x (2.79m)

 - Turtles - .538x (2.07m)

 - Suicide Squad - .425x (1.74m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Blue Beetle	T-13	Jax	5	42	12	42	6,627	0.63%
		Phx	5	37	8	44	6,488	0.68%
		Ral	6	19	4	43	3,260	1.32%
	Total		16	98	24	129	16,375	0.79%
Strays	T-13	Jax	6	15	2	14	1,897	0.74%
		Phx	5	20	2	15	2,081	0.72%
		Ral	6	18	2	22	2,703	0.81%
	Total		17	53	6	51	6,681	0.76%
Strays (EA)	T-12	Jax	3	3	0	3	352	0.85%
		Phx	3	3	1	1	403	0.25%
		Ral	4	4	0	2	506	0.40%
	Total		10	10	1	6	1,261	0.48%

 

Strays (Total) T-13 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 4.07x (2.04m)

 - Joy Ride (Total) - 1.239x (1.36m)

 - 80 for Brady (Total) - 1.14x (855k)

 - Cocaine Bear - .475x (950k)

 - Violent Night - 1.39x (1.53m) 

 - Turtles (Total) - .111x (611k)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.19m

 

Blue Beetle T-13 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - 1.075x (2.15m)

 - Bullet Train - .832x (2.79m)

 - Turtles - .626x (2.41m)

 - Suicide Squad - .483x (1.98m)

 - Morbius - .257x (1.46m)

[Krissykins]

12 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Gran Turismo (EA)	T-4	Jax	2	2	0	8	841	0.95%
	T-5	Jax	5	7	16	101	960	10.52%
		Phx	1	1	18	66	208	31.73%
		Ral	1	1	11	32	261	12.26%
	Total		7	9	45	199	1,429	13.93%
Last Voyage	T-6	Jax	5	12	0	21	1,387	1.51%
		Phx	5	14	6	17	1,138	1.49%
		Ral	6	15	-1	17	1,361	1.25%
	Total		16	41	5	55	3,886	1.42%

 

Last Voyage T-6 comps

 - Black Phone - .407x (1.06m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - .43x (623k)

 - Northman - .306x (413k)

 - Green Knight - 1.1x (825k)

 - Talk to Me - 1.02x (1.27m)

 - Beast - 1.122x (1.04m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.01m

This years The Invitation maybe. 
 

(still sad the UK release got pulled). 

[filmlover]

The Last Voyage of the Demeter is the Ruby Gillman: Teenage Kraken of horror movies.

 

If they had expected it to be a hit, they would've called it something more marquee-friendly than The Last Voyage of the Demeter.

[CJohn]

26 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Gran Turismo (EA)	T-4	Jax	2	2	0	8	841	0.95%
	T-5	Jax	5	7	16	101	960	10.52%
		Phx	1	1	18	66	208	31.73%
		Ral	1	1	11	32	261	12.26%
	Total		7	9	45	199	1,429	13.93%
Last Voyage	T-6	Jax	5	12	0	21	1,387	1.51%
		Phx	5	14	6	17	1,138	1.49%
		Ral	6	15	-1	17	1,361	1.25%
	Total		16	41	5	55	3,886	1.42%

 

Last Voyage T-6 comps

 - Black Phone - .407x (1.06m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - .43x (623k)

 - Northman - .306x (413k)

 - Green Knight - 1.1x (825k)

 - Talk to Me - 1.02x (1.27m)

 - Beast - 1.122x (1.04m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.01m

The same guy did Scary Stories To Tell in The Dark so it surprises me this one is getting such a muted release.

[CJohn]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The Last Voyage of the Demeter is the Ruby Gillman: Teenage Kraken of horror movies.

 

If they had expected it to be a hit, they would've called it something more marquee-friendly than The Last Voyage of the Demeter.

Here it is called "Dracula: The Awakening of Evil" lmao. They looked at the original title and said NOPE.

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

Bottoms T-29: 12.91% Awareness

Thanksgiving T-106: 8.41% Awareness

Trolls Band Together T-106: 42.52% Awareness

Napoleon T-111: 20.15% Awareness

Elio T-211: 19.79% Awareness

A Quiet Place: Day One T-218: 29.77% Awareness

Ghostbusters: Afterlife 2 T-239: 35.55% Awareness

Deadpool 3 T-274: 56.02% Awareness

 

Meg 2: The Trench T-2: 56.89% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 89% chance of 20M, 68% chance of 30M, 42% chance of 40M, 32% chance of 50M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 50% chance of 50M

 

The Last Voyage of the Demeter T-8: 26.4% Awareness

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 40% chance of 10M

[ThatWaluigiDude]

1 hour ago, CJohn said:

Here it is called "Dracula: The Awakening of Evil" lmao. They looked at the original title and said NOPE.

Over here is also called "Dracula". It seens most markets overseas saw the trap soon enough to avoid it lol

[Eric Prime]

What even is a Demeter? Sounds like a math equation

[MovieMan89]

7 hours ago, M37 said:

Would be a World Wide ATP of right around $8 US, so could be an estimate rather than a true count. But at least gives some context (with a lot of variability) for translating WW$ to admits

 

Avatar 200M+, TGM ~150M, Barbie probably going to end up in similar range  

Noticed an asterisk note in the report that cites the 168m number as an “estimate provided by Universal.” Still, you’d think Universal would have some genuine access to that info, no? 

[kayumanggi]