The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[misterpepp]

It Lives Inside and Ordinary Angels are both on sale Sep 6.

[keysersoze123]

On 8/29/2023 at 9:17 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Equalizer 3 MTC1

Previews(T-2) - 25238/495340 432564.46 2562 shows

Friday - 23683/802876 386493.89 4157 shows

 

Not bad at at all. Expecting this to hit 60K+. Low 3s previews. 

Equalizer 3 MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 36038/504526 605186.12 2614 shows +10700

Friday - 33470/822283 540967.00 4287 shows

 

Really strong T-1 for Equalizer. Normally I would say somewhere around 3.75-4x of T-1 would be done by end of day tomorrow. That is 75K finish. Even if its skews MTC1 due to "urban" audience, I dont see how it does not do something like 3.7m previews.

 

I am also thinking something like 8/10/9/7 for rest of the 4 day weekend for upper 30s 4 day weekend. 

[The GOAT]

4 hours ago, datpepper said:

I am not sure if this forum knows about this or not yet, my usual go-to guy told me this:

 

Taylor Swift Eras concert film of some sort coming (possibly probably not exclusive to AMC?) on 10/13. Will play for at least 4 weeks, maximum of 26(!) weeks.

 

Same price at every theater: $19.89 for an adult ticket (Yes, the gag you're thinking of is intentional). Child ticket will be $13.13.

 

More info should come out next week, if this is accurate. I've trusted my usual source up 'til now, I'm trusting him here too.

EDIT: I can't confirm for certain that it's exclusive to AMC or not, it's possible that it's everywhere. My guy has only been able to state that AMC at least will be playing it.

EDIT 2: Not a source of mine, but somebody on Reddit replied to Bob's re-post of this and said it'll be playing at Cinemark as well. I don't know that individual, so take that for what you will.

Taylor Swift saving the Cinemas. What bout them apples? 

[Hilts]

Weekend Box Office Forecast: THE EQUALIZER 3 Aiming for #2 All-Time Labor Day Debut - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

 

Film	Studio	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, September 3	Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed)	3-Day % Change from Last Wknd	4-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Monday, September 4
The Equalizer 3	Sony & Columbia Pictures	$31,000,000	$31,000,000	~3,900	NEW	$37,600,000	$37,600,000
Barbie	Warner Bros. Pictures	$11,100,000	$610,000,000	~3,700	-27%	$14,300,000	$613,200,000
Blue Beetle	Warner Bros. Pictures	$7,500,000	$57,400,000	~3,400	-38%	$10,600,000	$60,500,000
Oppenheimer	Universal Pictures	$7,000,000	$310,000,000	~2,700	-15%	$9,100,000	$312,100,000
Gran Turismo	Sony Pictures	$6,500,000	$28,300,000	~3,856	-63%	$8,500,000	$30,300,000
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem	Paramount Pictures	$4,500,000	$106,100,000	~3,100	-38%	$6,100,000	$107,700,000
Strays	Universal Pictures	$3,400,000	$21,600,000	~2,700	-31%	$4,400,000	$22,600,000
Meg 2: The Trench	Warner Bros. Pictures	$3,100,000	$78,700,000	~2,400	-35%	$4,100,000	$79,700,000
The Hill	Briarcliff Entertainment	$1,700,000	$5,000,000	~1,800	-26%	$2,300,000	$5,600,000
Retribution	Lionsgate	$1,600,000	$6,400,000	~1,800	-55%	$2,000,000	$6,800,000

[vafrow]

On 8/30/2023 at 7:35 AM, vafrow said:

 

Equalizer 3, Thursday previews T-2, southern Ontario

 

Total sales:  570

New Sales: 139

Growth from yesterday: 32%

Theatre Count:  51

Showtimes:  163

Tickets per showtime: 3.497

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

Regional comp

0.757x Blue Beetle for $2.5M

1.275x Gran Turismo for $1.8M

 

Another solid growth day. Still, the range is still fairly large and not converging. Final number can be anywhere within there.

 

Equalizer 3, Thursday previews T-1, southern Ontario

 

Total sales:  888

New Sales: 318

Growth from yesterday: 56%

Theatre Count:  51

Showtimes:  163

Tickets per showtime: 5.448

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

Regional comp

0.765x Blue Beetle for $2.5M

1.260x Gran Turismo for $1.8M

 

At 56% growth, it stayed pace with both comps almost to a T. That said, I feel like Equalizer will be more walk up friendly. Gran Turismo likely saw reduced walk up demand due to NCD.

 

I would put my final estimate at $2.3M +/- $0.2M.

 

Edited August 31, 2023 by vafrow

[TwoMisfits]

16 hours ago, el sid said:

The Equalizer 3 counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 265 (10 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 77 (10 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 10 (7 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 14 (5 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 13 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 86 (9 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 93 (11 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 558.

Up good 82% since Monday.
Comps (all films counted on Wednesday of the release week for Friday): Fast X (67M OW) had 1.999 sold tickets,
Plane (10.3M) had 248 sold tickets,
Angel Has Fallen (21.4M) had 293,
Rambo V (18.9M) had 228,
JW4 (73.8M) had 2.584,
Creed III (58.4M) had 1.305,

BT (30M) had 1.000

and Meg 2 (30M) had 486 sold tickets.
 

Still a very wide range from the comps. But the jump was good, which was also very needed after the pretty bad Friday presales in my theaters on Monday. Problem is, other films like Creed III had an even bigger jump back then (96%) so it did rather lose ground in the comps.
Because I think that it's a walk-up film I would say that 30M OW could happen. Meg 2 had 651 sold tickets on Thursday for Friday and The Equalizer 3 should reach that number by tomorrow.

 

Of your comps - Plane, Creed 3, and JW4 had the same $5 Atom deal for the weekend...

[Madhuvan]

I hope you all will track Eras Tour movie 

It's gonna do really good at BO

 

Also, is it allowed to make a discussion thread regarding it??

[M37]

10 hours ago, datpepper said:

I am not sure if this forum knows about this or not yet, my usual go-to guy told me this:

 

Taylor Swift Eras concert film of some sort coming (possibly probably not exclusive to AMC?) on 10/13. Will play for at least 4 weeks, maximum of 26(!) weeks.

 

Same price at every theater: $19.89 for an adult ticket (Yes, the gag you're thinking of is intentional). Child ticket will be $13.13.

 

More info should come out next week, if this is accurate. I've trusted my usual source up 'til now, I'm trusting him here too.

EDIT: I can't confirm for certain that it's exclusive to AMC or not, it's possible that it's everywhere. My guy has only been able to state that AMC at least will be playing it.

EDIT 2: Not a source of mine, but somebody on Reddit replied to Bob's re-post of this and said it'll be playing at Cinemark as well. I don't know that individual, so take that for what you will.

It’s at MTC3 too, so seems to a nationwide release rather than chain exclusive (was actually going to ask you Wtf special event was getting 20% screen capacity for advance sales!). Only limited shows though, mostly Thu-Sun for those 4 weeks 

 

Also tickets might be going on sale as early as … today? Fandango has the title listed (only if you search for it)

 

Taylor Swift coming to save theaters from the October strike doldrums 

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Equalizer 3	T-1	Jax	5	51	13*	179	8,874	2.02%
		Phx	6	41	48	171	7,459	2.29%
		Ral	8	52	61	225	7,797	2.89%
	Total		19	144	122	575	24,130	2.38%

*A couple of theaters in the Jacksonville area have locked their shows due to the hurricane.  

 

Equalizer 3 T-1 comps 

 - Matrix 4 - .177x (1.13m)

 - F9 - .264x (1.87m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .576x (2.65m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 2.3x (3.34m)

 - Black Phone (Total) - .988x (2.97m)

 - Creed III - .449x (2.45m)

 - Gran Turismo (Thu) - 2.21x (3.1m)

 - Meg 2 - 1.26x (4.02m)

 

Size adjusted avg - 2.85m

 

Equalizer pace chart

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Equalizer 3	79.13%	31.15%	38.01%	26.93%
Matrix 4 (Wed)			24.83%	16.67%
F9: The Fast Saga	75.75%	22.24%	16.27%	26.07%
Bullet Train + EA	90.29%	32.00%	26.33%	27.59%
Knock at the Cabin	72.41%	26.21%	13.08%	23.15%
Black Phone + EA			21.76%	29.91%
Creed III Total			32.33%	36.71%
Gran Turismo	111.38%	68.29%	61.54%	20.37%
Meg 2	143.62%	62.23%		53.18%

 

Not much change today.  Hurricane affecting what was looking like a solid sales day.  I don't think 3m is out of the question, but I'm still thinking under (~2.7m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Equalizer 3	T-0	Jax	5	51	71*	250	8,874	2.82%
		Phx	6	41	70	241	7,459	3.23%
		Ral	8	56	93	318	8,050	3.95%
	Total		19	148	234	809	24,383	3.32%

*A couple of theaters in the Jacksonville area have locked their shows due to the hurricane.  

 

Equalizer 3 T-0 comps 

 - F9 - .265x (1.88m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .621x (2.86m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 2.2x (3.19m)

 - Black Phone (Total) - .976x (2.93m)

 - Creed III - .476x (2.59m)

 - Gran Turismo (Thu) - 2.593x (3.63m)

 - Meg 2 - 1.2x (3.84m)

 

Size adjusted avg - 2.99m

Growth model forecast - 2.96m

 

Equalizer pace chart

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Equalizer 3	116.89%	32.44%	38.89%	40.70%
F9: The Fast Saga	111.12%	28.04%	17.08%	40.17%
Bullet Train + EA	108.65%	30.93%	29.23%	30.33%
Knock at the Cabin	117.75%	24.26%	22.66%	47.20%
Black Phone + EA			25.32%	42.44%
Creed III Total	119.07%	35.70%	32.67%	32.71%
Gran Turismo	95.00%	35.00%	81.73%	20.00%
Meg 2	202.24%	52.91%		47.16%

 

Pace is right in line with the comps.  Since Jacksonville and partially Raleigh are affected by hurricane, I'll up my projection to 3.2m. 

[ThomasNicole]

12 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

I hope you all will track Eras Tour movie 

It's gonna do really good at BO

 

Also, is it allowed to make a discussion thread regarding it??

Depending on how many theaters will play i think this will have a VERY strong OW, considering the insane fanbase she have 

 

Definitely seems to me like something that will sell like gangbusters on presales [being even frontloaded in the process]

[Skim Beeble]

Looking at the seat availability for the Eras Tour at a few local theaters.  Already two screenings sold out besides handicapped seats

[katnisscinnaplex]

Just now, M37 said:

It’s at MTC3 too, so seems to a nationwide release rather than chain exclusive (was actually going to ask you Wtf special event was getting 20% screen capacity for advance sales!). Only limited shows though, mostly Thu-Sun for those 4 weeks 

 

Also tickets might be going on sale as early as … today? Fandango has the title listed (only if you search for it)

 

Taylor Swift coming to save theaters from the October strike doldrums 

I had a 10 minute wait to check a show at MTC1 site this morning...  they are on sale at least there

[M37]

I went to check to see if title was listed on AMC’s site … and found a 10 minute wait 

 

Here’s why: tickets are live

 

 

 

 

Edited August 31, 2023 by M37

[ThomasNicole]

Fwiw, maybe there will be some weirdly bump on The Nun 2 today, it screened a few hours ago to [surprisingly] pretty good reactions, even if it´s from bloggers etc the consensus is that is much better than the first

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Greek Wedding	T-8	Jax	5	13	2	29	1,351	2.15%
		Phx	6	16	0	24	1,490	1.61%
		Ral	7	17	1	16	1,877	0.85%
	Total		18	46	3	69	4,718	1.46%

 

Greek Wedding T-8 comps

 - Magic Mike 3 - .697x (697k)

 - 80 for Brady (Total) - .329x (417k)

 - Joy Ride (Total) - .932x (1.03m)

 - Strays (Total) - 1.05x (1.15m)

 - Barbie (Total) - .021x (468k)

 

Size adjusted average - 857k

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Greek Wedding	T-7	Jax	5	13	3	32	1,351	2.37%
		Phx	6	16	0	24	1,490	1.61%
		Ral	7	17	0	16	1,877	0.85%
	Total		18	46	3	72	4,718	1.53%

*Showtimes have disappeared for MTC 1 in all regions and even a couple MTC3s.  Not sure if it's a glitch with the Swift thing going on sale, but I don't really have time to look into it today.

 

Greek Wedding T-7 comps

 - Magic Mike 3 - .541x (541k)

 - 80 for Brady (Total) - .291x (370k)

 - Joy Ride (Total) - .837x (921k)

 - Strays (Total) - .9x (990k)

 - Barbie (Total) - .019x (425k)

 

Size adjusted average - 752k

[Eric Prime]

20 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

I hope you all will track Eras Tour movie 

It's gonna do really good at BO

 

Also, is it allowed to make a discussion thread regarding it??

Don't think so. If there's public information about this Eras theatrical release, feel free to make one.

[vafrow]

Tickets for Taylor Swift are on sale with Cineplex already. My local has already sold 23 tickets for the Friday. No Thursday previews available.

 

Will set up my spreadsheet to do some tracking. It's playing in 50 theatres in my radius (so, everywhere).

 

Showtimes are 198 for now, but, information was loaded quickly it seems, and Cineplex is weird where it lists theatres with Dbox seats twice, so I have to make sure to not double count thise showtimes, but, listings aren't labeled, so, I might have over or understated.

 

This is doing monster business already, and at this point, only the die hards are probably even aware.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

I need all hands on deck to track this. No other film matters. If you even mention another film between now and October 13th you will be banned FOREVER.

 

[M37]

1 minute ago, Eric McCall said:

Don't think so. If there's public information about this Eras theatrical release, feel free to make one.

Does Taylor herself announcing it count as “public information”? 😂

[Issac Newton]

6 minutes ago, Eric McCall said:

Don't think so. If there's public information about this Eras theatrical release, feel free to make one.