The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour  MTC1 Friday (T - 35) - 494076/760680 10444270.64 4482 shows

 

Someething really weird that friday presales fell off the cliff. I ran again this morning and its at 494344. It does not even have refunds. I looked at Day 2 and it seems more in line. May be all good seats in prime time shows are near sellouts and it needs new shows to grow going forward or its an anomaly for a day. We will know today.

 

Taylor Swift Eras Tour MTC1 Sat - 400655/1564544 8642785.95 9023 shows

 

 

Something weird is going on. Hopefully, one of the trackers figures out why sales are declining

 

These are my last 4 days of sale for Friday: 

T-36 10247

10334

10496

T-39     10444

 

It's declining which makes no sense 

[XXR vs XXR]

10 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Something weird is going on. Hopefully, one of the trackers figures out why sales are declining

 

These are my last 4 days of sale for Friday: 

T-36 10247

10334

10496

T-39     10444

 

It's declining which makes no sense 

It has to be something in the scraping method, because the tickets are non-refundable.

[Tinalera]

Ill post numbers in a bit as I am working them, but Vancouver anyway 35 days out more than a couple are already near sellouts-its performing like a massive tentpole. I am gobsmacked.

[Porthos]

18 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Something weird is going on. Hopefully, one of the trackers figures out why sales are declining

 

These are my last 4 days of sale for Friday: 

T-36 10247

10334

10496

T-39     10444

 

It's declining which makes no sense 

 

Could be that folks are reversing charges on credit cards as a way to get around "no refunds".  Might also be refunds only at actual theaters.  Could even be catching seats when they are in the stage of being bought (on hold) and then the ticket buyer backs out.

 

Or could even be that the "no refund" policy isn't nearly as strict as it's being led to believe.

 

FWIW, I have indeed seen a minor (and I do mean minor) dips at a very small handful of showings.  Two seats less here, three seats less there.  That sort of thing.

 

But, frankly, tracking programs are finicky beasts.  If there is a hiccup when a show is being scanned the tracking program might skip over a showing or not record it properly and unless one is actually watching it as the track is being done, or cross referencing it showing by showing on a spreadsheet and then manually looking for errors if there's something funny going on, one might not know what is happening.

 

Additionally a tracking program might double count a showing one day or misread it as larger than it is supposed to be (or smaller for that matter) if it ran into an error during the run and didn't reset itself properly and then spit out a corrected total on a different day.  When the sample size is large enough and/or enough tickets are sold, the noise gets suppressed by the strong signal.  When sales are small enough though, the noise increases.

 

Lots of things could be at play, really.

Edited September 8, 2023 by Porthos

[vafrow]

10 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Something weird is going on. Hopefully, one of the trackers figures out why sales are declining

 

These are my last 4 days of sale for Friday: 

T-36 10247

10334

10496

T-39     10444

 

It's declining which makes no sense 

 

When i do my count, I try and use groups of 10 theatres to help me manage the math. My total for the whole region has always gone up, but, for most updates, there's usually at least one grouping that goes down.

 

I've attributed it to just math errors on my part, as when I've gone back to redo it, it's still good, so, I always assume it's an issue with the prior day, which I couldn't double check. I still think math errors are the culprit, but sharing in case it's another issue.

 

I also want to reiterate for my market how there's still a lot of really good seats left. IMAX screens got added for 7pm shows around day 3, and have remained largely unsold.

 

Plus, DBOX seats remain unsold. The site has not made this available for sale at all. I imagine at first due to uncertainty if Dbox functionality will be available (likely not). But, in those cases they'll usually sell the seats as normal seats, which they haven't done. However, based on IMAX sales, I'm guessing they know these will just sit, so they're not in a hurry to resolve it.

[XXR vs XXR]

24 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Ill post numbers in a bit as I am working them, but Vancouver anyway 35 days out more than a couple are already near sellouts-its performing like a massive tentpole. I am gobsmacked.

You’ve been away for a bit huh? First day sales were on par with No Way Home. It’s going to open over $100M and could potentially beat Barbie’s OW.

[Ledmonkey96]

So far as i'm aware the 'no refunds' policy for the movie refers to showings that have already started so not really anything new

[XXR vs XXR]

12 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

So far as i'm aware the 'no refunds' policy for the movie refers to showings that have already started so not really anything new

No, it means once a ticket is bought it can’t be refunded. That’s why this is unique and gets a special disclaimer when you go to purchase.

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

No, it means once a ticket is bought it can’t be refunded. That’s why this is unique and gets a special disclaimer when you go to purchase.

 

Yes, but is odd to see a sale count go down on an individual showing.  I keep enough of a record where I can look at show by show seat counts and I have seen some go down.  Since it was mentioned last night I was keeping a half an eye out.  Noticed it happening at MTC3, but they have a "hold" policy on seats where the moment they're selected on the corp site, they get blacked out until ticket purchase confirmation, so I could have just been (un)lucky and caught them while someone was thinking about buying tickets before backing out.

 

But I also think I've seen it at MTC2 and various minor chains as well.  Def gonna be keeping a closer look at things now that we're in the marathon run.

 

It is absolutely true that Fandango puts up a big warning about ticket purchases.  It is also true that I've seen seat counts go down very slightly on a manual track, so something is happening somewhere.

 

Likely just folks backing out of ticket purchases at the last moment.  But I'm not as convinced as you are about how iron-clad the "no refunds" policy is to folks who feel committed to getting around it.

 

(also could be a hold on a CC and if a chain checks it later and it gets declined the chain itself could void the purchase)

Edited September 8, 2023 by Porthos

[Hilts]

On 9/7/2023 at 9:07 PM, Hilts said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour							OK
Friday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-40	19	140	0	441	9,592	25,770	37.22%
T-39	19	140	0	302	9,894	25,770	38.39%
T-38	19	143	0	216	10,110	26,066	38.79%
T-37	19	144	0	139	10,249	26,136	39.21%
T-36	19	151	0	153	10,402	27,778	37.45%
T-0 Comp (not ATP adjusted)
Barbie					1.052x	=	$22.20m

 

More or less stabilised. Shows continuing to be added (MTC3's turn).

 

If it continues like this it can reach $35m by T-0 in my region so I can see why people are saying $50m OD ATP adjusted.

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour							OK
Friday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-39	19	140	0	302	9,894	25,770	38.39%
T-38	19	143	0	216	10,110	26,066	38.79%
T-37	19	144	0	139	10,249	26,136	39.21%
T-36	19	151	0	153	10,402	27,778	37.45%
T-35	19	154	0	98	10,500	28,259	37.16%
T-0 Comp (not ATP adjusted)
Barbie					1.062x	=	$22.41m

 

Could be a fluke in my region but didn't notice any issues here, just sold slightly less today. All theatres I track were either flat or up. But I will keep an eye out.

 

 

[vafrow]

24 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Yes, but is odd to see a sale count go down on an individual showing.  I keep enough of a record where I can look at show by show seat counts and I have seen some go down.  Since it was mentioned last night I was keeping a half an eye out.  Noticed it happening at MTC3, but they have a "hold" policy on seats where the moment they're selected on the corp site, they get blacked out until ticket purchase confirmation, so I could have just been (un)lucky and caught them while someone was thinking about buying tickets before backing out.

 

But I also think I've seen it at MTC2 and various minor chains as well.  Def gonna be keeping a closer look at things now that we're in the marathon run.

 

It is absolutely true that Fandango puts up a big warning about ticket purchases.  It is also true that I've seen seat counts go down very slightly on a manual track, so something is happening somewhere.

 

Likely just folks backing out of ticket purchases at the last moment.  But I'm not as convinced as you are about how iron-clad the "no refunds" policy is to folks who feel committed to getting around it.

 

(also could be a hold on a CC and if a chain checks it later and it gets declined the chain itself could void the purchase)

 

Adding to this on MTC4 refund policy. Last time I tried to refund a ticket during the summer, I was told that I had to wait until after the movie was done, and they can validate that my ticket wasn't used before they could issue me a refund.

 

This was a regular showing of Asteroid City, so nothing special. But it seems to be their approach for any tickets purchased online.

 

I do have the same issue with ticket blocking, but that only is an issue if I'm checking tickets at a high traffic time. I'll see it happen if I'm checking sales right at showtime to get a final count.

 

With new sales being so low, it would take a lot of people all shopping but not buying tickets all at the same time. I think the probability would be minimal.

 

One potential answer could be that some blocks of tickets could have been scalper purchased, and ticket sites could be cracking down on those situations. With the inventory available, it wouldn't make much sense for scalpers to get in this game, but, everything involving this tour has attracted interest from people looking to make a quick buck. I could see ticketing sites pushing against that, as scalping hasn't traditionally been a thing you have to worry about with movies, and maybe they're trying to deter.

 

Not a likely option, but just throwing out a potential theory.

[Tinalera]

1 hour ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

You’ve been away for a bit huh? First day sales were on par with No Way Home. It’s going to open over $100M and could potentially beat Barbie’s OW.

Yea its fair to say Ive been kind of out of the loop with some real life stuff going on. 

 

Those numbers are just....wow.

[Tinalera]

Okay so Im slowly easing my way back into stuff here...this Taylor Swift has just blown my mind. This is just for Thursday  Oct 13 Vancouver. Not even friday. Easing my way back in. I just.....wow

 

Taylor Swift 

Thurs Oct 13

Vancouver Canada 

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouver	Thurs	4	30	2644	3242	5886	0.4492

 

 

45 percent sold with over a month to go....

 

 

 

[keysersoze123]

To be fair my mind was blown looking at OD presales. It absolutely destroyed all movies previously tracked(We do not have OD presales for NWH and Endgame was before I started tracking at this level). On top of it it has inflated ticket prices.  That said to reiterate again, this has friday "previews" starting at 6PM in US at least(Canada shows are starting earlier). So it has only 2 1/2 days of OW box office which is unprecedented. I dont know if/when we last have a movie that did not have full friday as part of OW. So we may hit capacity for prime time shows quickly unless they had more screens and that will happen over a period of time.

[SpiderByte]

I do think it'll have the advantage of a mostly empty October. Even if I'm still less optimistic about the legs after the first week or two.

[vafrow]

22 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Okay so Im slowly easing my way back into stuff here...this Taylor Swift has just blown my mind. This is just for Thursday  Oct 13 Vancouver. Not even friday. Easing my way back in. I just.....wow

 

Taylor Swift 

Thurs Oct 13

Vancouver Canada 

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouver	Thurs	4	30	2644	3242	5886	0.4492

 

 

45 percent sold with over a month to go....

 

 

 

 

Just a note, opening day is Friday, October 13th. Not the Thursday.

 

Also, your numbers are presumably coming from the same national chain as mine and numbers align pretty well. I'm at 98 tickets per showtime. You're at 88. But, I'm guessing you've got more bigger theatres with multiple showtimes going on.

 

My average is being pulled up by theatres that have one evening showtime, that are almost sold out. They don't open for matinees.

 

At 7.5 showtimes per theatre, you've probably got a lot matinee shows with low numbers dragging it down a notch.

Edited September 8, 2023 by vafrow

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Denver Friday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

2032

2629

77.29%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1977

2492

79.33%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
9711	203	18466	52.59%	13	124

 

0.942	Barbie T-0	21.00M
0.632	Doctor Strange MoM T-0	22.75M
0.419	NWH T-0	20.97M

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Denver Friday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

2050

2629

77.98%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1984

2492

79.61%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
9767	58	18466	52.89%	13	124

 

0.947	Barbie T-0	21.12M
0.636	Doctor Strange MoM T-0	22.89M
0.422	NWH T-0	21.09M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Alamo Drafthouse [+2 days of sales]

T-36 Friday

91 Showings

8197

+470

14904

ATP:

22.58

0.253	Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-0	9.11M
0.211	NWH Thurs T-0	10.56M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-0	13.68M
	Adjusted NWH Thurs T-0	15.86M

 

T-37 Saturday

148 Showings

9653

+811

23207

ATP:

22.18

0.260	Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-0	14.20M
0.226	NWH Fri T-0	16.28M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-0	21.50M
	Adjusted NWH Fri T-0	24.65M

 

T-38 Sunday

136 Showings

7166

+780

21262

ATP:

22.02

0.163	Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-0	9.42M
0.142	NWH Sat T-0	10.53M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-0	14.61M
	Adjusted NWH Sat T-0	16.35M

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Alamo Drafthouse

T-35 Friday

95 Showings

8353

+156

15246

ATP:

22.57

0.258	Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-0	9.29M
0.215	NWH Thurs T-0	10.76M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-0	13.93M
	Adjusted NWH Thurs T-0	16.15M

 

T-36 Saturday

157 Showings

10033

+380

24110

ATP:

22.19

0.270	Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-0	14.76M
0.235	NWH Fri T-0	16.92M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-0	22.36M
	Adjusted NWH Fri T-0	25.63M

 

T-37 Sunday

144 Showings

7579

+413

22045

ATP:

22.02

0.172	Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-0	9.96M
0.151	NWH Sat T-0	11.14M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-0	15.46M
	Adjusted NWH Sat T-0	17.29M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Emagine Entertainment [+3 days of sales]

T-36 Friday

118 Showings

7166

+373

18251

0.499

Barbie T-0 Thursday

11.13M

 

T-37 Saturday

234 Showings

4402

+511

36018

0.171

Barbie T-0 Friday

8.18M

 

T-38 Sunday

225 Showings

2496

+382

35594

0.105

Barbie T-0 Saturday

4.60M

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Emagine Entertainment

T-35 Friday

118 Showings

7524

+358

18725

0.524

Barbie T-0 Thursday

11.69M

 

T-36 Saturday

234 Showings

4631

+229

36943

0.180

Barbie T-0 Friday

8.61M

 

T-37 Sunday

225 Showings

2604

+108

35594

0.110

Barbie T-0 Saturday

4.80M

[Eric Furiosa]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-the-exorcist-believer/

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 9/7/23)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
9/15/2023	A Haunting in Venice	$14,000,000 – $19,000,000	25%	$42,000,000 – $60,000,000	22%	Disney / 20th Century Studios
9/15/2023	Amerikatsi					Variance Films / Everest Films
9/15/2023	Camp Hideout					Roadside Attractions
9/15/2023	Dumb Money (Platform LA / NY / Chicago / DC / Boston / San Francisco)					Sony Pictures / Columbia
9/22/2023	Barbie (IMAX Release)					Warner Bros. Pictures
9/22/2023	Dumb Money (Moderate Expansion)					Sony Pictures / Columbia
9/22/2023	Expend4bles	$13,000,000 – $18,000,000		$31,000,000 – $45,000,000		Lionsgate
9/22/2023	It Lives Inside					NEON
9/29/2023	The Creator	$15,000,000 – $24,000,000		$40,000,000 – $85,000,000		20th Century Studios
9/29/2023	Dumb Money (Wide Expansion)	$5,000,000 – $10,000,000		$14,000,000 – $42,000,000		Sony Pictures / Columbia
9/29/2023	PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000		$30,000,000 – $48,000,000		Paramount Pictures
9/29/2023	Saw X	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000		$22,000,000 – $35,000,000		Lionsgate
9/29/2023	Untitled Universal Event Film					Universal Pictures
10/6/2023	The Exorcist: Believer	$18,000,000 – $27,000,000		$41,000,000 – $69,000,000		Universal Pictures
10/6/2023	Foe					Amazon Studios
10/6/2023	Cat Person					Rialto Pictures
10/6/2023	Freeland					Freelance