The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

THE CREATOR

 

Thursday Previews 

T-11

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
137	369	28131	1.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

6

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-11

 

(0.434x) of Blue Beetle ~$1.43M THUR Previews

(0.252x) of RoTB ~$2.22M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $1.83M

 

Dropping fast against comps

 

 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

THE CREATOR

 

Thursday Previews 

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
137	381	28131	1.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

12

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-10

 

(0.438x) of Blue Beetle ~$1.45M THUR Previews

(0.253x) of RoTB ~$2.23M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $1.84M

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

EXPEND4BLES

 

Thursday Previews 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
141	218	27815	0.78%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

19

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-4

 

(0.401x) of EQUALIZER 3 ~$1.53M THUR Previews

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

EXPEND4BLES

 

Thursday Previews 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
153	250	30115	0.83%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

32

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

12

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-3

 

(0.411x) of EQUALIZER 3 ~$1.56M THUR Previews

(1.096x) of Greek Wedding ~$603K THUR Previews

(0.677x) of Last Voyage ~$508K THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $890K

 

Pretty terrible growth 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER

 

Thursday Previews 

T-18

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
145	406	25529	1.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

14

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-18

 

(0.360x) of Haunted Mansion~$1.12M THUR Previews

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER

 

Thursday Previews 

T-17

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
145	413	25529	1.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

7

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-17

 

(0.352x) of Haunted Mansion~$1.09M THUR Previews

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-26

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
224	10963	43473	25.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

25

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

19

 

COMPS

T-0

 

No good comps this far out so I'll just compare to T-0 since volume is already absurdly high 

T-0 previews: 

(0.817x) of Barbie ~$17.23M FRIDAY for TET

(0.981x) of ATSV~$17.02M FRIDAY for TET

(1.637x) of TLM~$16.86M FRIDAY for TET

COMP AVG: $17.04M

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $23.86M

 

T-26 comps

(2.636x) of GOTG3~$46.13M FRIDAY for TET

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-25

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
224	10975	43473	25.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

12

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

19

 

COMPS

T-0

T-0 comps previews: 

(0.818x) of Barbie ~$17.25M FRIDAY for TET

(0.982x) of ATSV~$17.04M FRIDAY for TET

(1.639x) of TLM~$16.88M FRIDAY for TET

COMP AVG: $17.06M

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $23.88M

 

T-25 comps

(2.607x) of GOTG3~$45.62M FRIDAY for TET

 

Pace still isn't picking up at all

[vafrow]

On 9/16/2023 at 9:01 PM, vafrow said:

 

The Creator, Thursday previews (T-12), southern Ontario 

 

Total sales: 88

New sales: 26

Growth from Thursday (T-14): 42%

Theatres: 48

Showtimes: 100

Tickets per showtime: 0.88

 

1.173x of Equalizer 3 for $4.4M

 

Staying pace with my comp, but, I'm not confident that it's the best comp for a variety of reasons. Equalizer under indexed here mainly with it comping around $2M. I can see this in the $2.0-2.5M range. But, will need to see it play out a bit.

 

The Creator, Thursday previews (T-10), southern Ontario 

 

Total sales: 107

New sales: 19

Growth from Saturday (T-12): 22%

Theatres: 48

Showtimes: 100

Tickets per showtime: 1.07

 

1.092x of Equalizer 3 for $4.1M

 

Not much Intel here. Not great growth, but I lack the comps to give it much context. Still likely overestimating right now.

 

[abracadabra1998]

23 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Expend4bles (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	37	29	67	5864	1.14

 

Comps:

0.59x Equalizer 3: $2.25 Million

0.58x The Nun II: $1.8 Million

 

Performing better here than anywhere else it seems, we'll see how it does this week.

 

It Lives Inside (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	18	33	33	1654	2

 

Comps:

0.3x Talk To Me (w/ EA): $380k

0.55x Last Voyage of Demeter: $412k

 

Kept seeing this pop up and thought why the hell not, might as well track the latest Neon flick. They probably won't even report previews but hey here's one for the little guy I guess.

 

The Creator (T-11):

Day: T-11, T-10	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 14 theaters	25	40	154	4054	3.8
Wednesday EA: 2 theaters	2	-1	14	586	2.39
TOTALS:	27	39	168	4640	3.62

 

Comps:

0.98x Haunted Mansion: $3 Million

TMNT: Missed

 

Might just be over performing here, but cannot overstate this fact: a third of Thursday sales are from the local Alamo, and that isn't exactly a recipe for walk-ups, since that is a notably presales heavy chain. Just don't want people getting overexcited.

 

The Exorcist: Believer (T-18):

Day: T-18	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	44	4	91	8629	1.05

 

Comp:

0.73x Haunted Mansion: $2.26 Million

 

I had made a mistake in my previous update for this, disregard the numbers for the Exorcist in my previous update. These are the right numbers.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Expend4bles (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	39	13	80	6045	1.32

 

Comps:

0.54x Equalizer 3: $2.07 Million

0.57x The Nun II: $1.76 Million

 

It Lives Inside (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 15 theaters	21	3	36	2064	1.74

 

Comps:

0.27x Talk To Me (w/ EA): $335k

0.52x Last Voyage of Demeter: $391k

[abracadabra1998]

On 9/15/2023 at 6:47 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Taylor Swift: Eras Tour (T-28):

Day: T-28	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	124	325	11570	20694	55.91

 

Comps (last day I tracked each):

1.3x Barbie w/ EA at T-1: $28.98 Million

2.39x Oppenheimer at T-1: $25.05 Million

 

Barbie T-28 EA Comp: 26.66x- $29.3 Million

 

Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 14 theaters	57	91	161	7146	2.25

 

Comps:

1x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $3.12 Million

0.48x TMNT (w/ all EA): $2.62 Million

 

Don't know where the hell this came from, maybe they've started marketing this? Either way, pretty awesome growth.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Taylor Swift: Eras Tour (T-25):

Day: T-25	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	124	183	11753	20694	56.79

 

Comps (last day I tracked each):

1.32x Barbie w/ EA at T-1: $29.42 Million

2.42x Oppenheimer at T-1: $25.43 Million

 

Barbie T-25 EA Comp: 17.86x- $19.65 Million (Unadjusted)

 

Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 15 theaters	62	73	234	8126	2.88

 

Comps:

1.37x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $4.24 Million

TMNT: Missed

 

A reminder this is for opening day, this has no previews. Still, doing pretty good.

[XXR vs XXR]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Pace still isn't picking up at all

 

Why would it at this point? Still no promotion and it's nearly a month away. 

[HummingLemon]

Taylor Swift tracking is plunging. All the fan-girls got their tickets instantly. Safe to say that @Relevation was wrong when he was talking about a $300 million OW.

Edited September 18, 2023 by HummingLemon

[Relevation]

30 minutes ago, HummingLemon said:

Taylor Swift tracking is plunging. All the fan-girls got their tickets instantly. Safe to say that @Relevation was wrong when he was talking about a $300 million OW.

This is the bottom of the U curve 

Wait until actual promotion starts up

Spoiler

Also I kinda bailed on $300M since I failed to account for a SUN drop, $265M would be my guess now and I still think that’s achievable if they start actually trying to promote it

 

[HummingLemon]

15 minutes ago, Relevation said:

This is the bottom of the U curve 

Wait until actual promotion starts up

  Reveal hidden contents

Also I kinda bailed on $300M since I failed to account for a SUN drop, $265M would be my guess now and I still think that’s achievable if they start actually trying to promote it

 

You have my trust

[vafrow]

On 9/16/2023 at 9:19 PM, vafrow said:

 

Exorcist: Believer, Thursday previews T-19, southern Ontario 

 

Total sales: 44

New sales: 16

Growth since Thursday: 57%

Theatres: 47

Showtimes: 94

Tickets per showtime: 0.468

 

No good comps. Just monitoring growth until Nun 2 comes online as a comp. 

 

Not doing too badly for this far out.

 

Exorcist: Believer, Thursday previews T-17, southern Ontario 

 

Total sales: 73

New sales: 29

Growth since Thursday: 66%

Theatres: 47

Showtimes: 94

Tickets per showtime: 0.777

 

No comps at this stage, but D2, T-7 on Nun 2 was 63, so it's going to be outperforming that once that comp is online. 

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, HummingLemon said:

You have my trust

It's not beating NWH OW with no previews. Would need 90/100/70 which seems highly unlikely unless something truly unprecedented happens in the final week

[HummingLemon]

21 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

It's not beating NWH OW with no previews. Would need 90/100/70 which seems highly unlikely unless something truly unprecedented happens in the final week

Yeah this Relevation guy is probably just overestimating it. Just choosing to go along with it because if he's right then he gets the ultimate brownie points.

[Chrysaor]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

It's not beating NWH OW with no previews. Would need 90/100/70 which seems highly unlikely unless something truly unprecedented happens in the final week

I mean I don't think it's going to hit *that* high either, but to be fair everything about this "movie" is unprecedented. Despite the immensely dedicated effort of numerous people on here, we're really just grasping in the dark with this one.

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, Chrysaor said:

I mean I don't think it's going to hit *that* high either, but to be fair everything about this "movie" is unprecedented. Despite the immensely dedicated effort of numerous people on here, we're really just grasping in the dark with this one.

Meh, the trend for this just does not suggest anything remotely close to that number. 

[Porthos]

It's mainly Geek Press, though I believe I've seen some Trades reaction as well, but The Creator is getting absolutely glowing reviews right now out of one of the first main screenings. Time will tell if that actually translates into a bump in sales or if this gonna have to rest on its legs/WOM.

 

Something to keep an eye on over the next few days of pre-sales.

[misterpepp]

Killers of the Flower Moon tix on sale Sep 24 at the unusual time of 9pm EST

[misterpepp]

Not to be outdone, Journey to Bethlehem is on sale Sep 20

[BadOlCatSylvester]

8 hours ago, CJohn said:

The rest of September screams disaster. Expand4bles is a 7-8M OW, Dumb Money is a 3-4M OW, Saw X is maybe a 10M OW and The Creator probably does around 10M as well. Paw Patrol should be the best with 12-13M. Hollywood needs a complete reboot because streaming has killed them.

The slate for the rest of the month is so bleak that our leading chain here in Turkey is resorting to rereleasing old movies. Just this past weekend we had the first three Harry Potter movies. Azkaban and Chamber better on Saturday alone and Sunday alone respectively than the new Poirot movie did in its entire opening weekend. This coming weekend we're getting the Lord of the Rings trilogy.