The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[ZeroHour]

10 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, 2nd Cinemark (PLF) FINALLY set for Wish...and I guess they did watch presales at the 1st for a few hours b/c it got set for ONE screen and NO PLF...5 showings - that's it.

 

Now, that is a set from the animation bombs of the summer...so maybe don't get too excited for good results yet...

Disney launching presales for their final two blockbusters for the year, both led by female characters, on this week of all weeks sure was a choice!

[keysersoze123]

Freddy's looks highly likely to have bigger presales. Trend across multiple regions shows numbers that Marvel wont hit in 2 weeks. Even MTC1 :-( was at furious pace. I will look at MTC2 tomorrow again to see how its doing. I last checked it a week ago and MTC2 previews was already at 25734 while Friday a day later was at 32567!!!

 

One thing though its ATP will be way lower than Marvels. it had very few PLF shows. Now it seems to have added few PLF shows but not sure that would be enough to increase ATP dramatically. 

[TheFlatLannister]

8 minutes ago, M37 said:

Just a quick temperature check ...

 

What would y'all say is the current appropriate betting line on FNAF previews only vs Marvels? Like +$5 million (say $7 vs $12)? +$6M? More??? Or less?

5M (13 vs 8 )

Edited October 13, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[Firepower]

Could Freddy come close to 100 mln OW?

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Marvels 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-28

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
251	1852	50028	3.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

123

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-28

 

(0.473x) of GOTG3~$8.28M THUR Previews

(1.180x) of Indy 5~$8.49M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $8.39M

 

1. Pace is actually pretty good??? So maybe the ceiling isn't collapsing just yet

2. In the grand scheme of things, pace doesn't matter so much since its starting from such a low baseline

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Marvels 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-27

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
251	1893	50028	3.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

41

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-27

 

(0.472x) of GOTG3~$8.27M THUR Previews

(1.193x) of Indy 5~$8.59M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $8.43M

[abracadabra1998]

15 minutes ago, M37 said:

Just a quick temperature check ...

 

What would y'all say is the current appropriate betting line on FNAF previews only vs Marvels? Like +$5 million (say $7 vs $12)? +$6M? More??? Or less?

7 v 12 sounds right at the moment, but I’m interested in what FNAF’s final push will be like; is this gonna be the next movie to capture pop culture for that week (like a mini-Barbie if you will, at least until WOM hits lol), or is this purely fan rush and will it end with a whimper? I could see either happening to be honest 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
174	2396	32508	7.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

70

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

7

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-14

 

(1.083x) of Flash $10.51M THUR Previews

(0.745x) of ATSV $12.92M THUR Previews

(1.670x) of Fast X $12.52M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $11.98M

 

*For fun*

(0.838x) of Barbie $17.68M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-13

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
174	2527	32508	7.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

131

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-13

 

(1.076x) of Flash $10.44M THUR Previews

(0.758x) of ATSV $13.15M THUR Previews

(1.748x) of Fast X $13.11M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $12.23M

 

*For fun*

(0.858x) of Barbie $18.10M

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
151	580	25536	2.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

27

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

6

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-8

 

(0.287x) of Oppenheimer ~$3.01M THUR Previews

(0.461x) of Mi7 ~$3.22M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $3.16M 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
151	610	25536	2.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

30

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(0.275x) of Oppenheimer ~$2.88M THUR Previews

(0.398x) of Mi7 ~$2.79M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $2.84M 

[Porthos]

34 minutes ago, M37 said:

Just a quick temperature check ...

 

What would y'all say is the current appropriate betting line on FNAF previews only vs Marvels? Like +$5 million (say $7 vs $12)? +$6M? More??? Or less?

 

No one should listen to the current holder of a Cone of Shame, but I think there is a REAL danger all of us are overestimating FNAF, myself included, as it is almost entirely self-sustaining hype.

 

My real worry is that its gonna start falling behind the GA driven comps once their social embargo and review bounces start.

 

Barbs is already fading fast.  My real worry is what happens in the T-12 to T-6 range or so.  Can the fan fueled nature of the FNAF buzz keep things going?

 

Maybe!  But it's a real worry, IMO.

 

(back to drooping in shame)

[Porthos]

BTW, deciding to do my final pull on TET a little later than I planned.  I realized a while ago that all of these 2pm to 6pm shows are fairly meaningless (with the exception of some of the 4pm to 5pm'ers) and I really ought to still treat this like a 6pm preview night show, as that is where nearly all of the ticket sales still are.

 

So probably will do my final pull at 5pm like I did yesterday for TET Thur. 

 

Have been pulling all of the final matinee time numbers and plugging them in, of course.

 

Not gonna help Sacto's numbers in the slightest, but I realized that I was approaching this day all wrong about an hour ago and decided to call an audible of sorts.

[Porthos]

10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

BTW, deciding to do my final pull on TET a little later than I planned.  I realized a while ago that all of these 2pm to 6pm shows are fairly meaningless (with the exception of some of the 4pm to 5pm'ers) and I really ought to still treat this like a 6pm preview night show, as that is where nearly all of the ticket sales still are.

 

How meaningless, BTW?  

 

In the last two hours, the showtimes that were between 2pm and 4pm (including the ones that just stopped at 4pm) sold a grand net total of 92 tickets region wide (92 more tickets than was already sold earlier today that is).

 

So, yeah.  Doing final pull at about the same time I did yesterday.

 

EDIT:::

 

9 more net tickets sold over 3 4:15pm showtimes. lol

Edited October 13, 2023 by Porthos

[HummingLemon496]

What internal multiplier is "FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S" going to have?

[HummingLemon496]

48 minutes ago, M37 said:

Just a quick temperature check ...

 

What would y'all say is the current appropriate betting line on FNAF previews only vs Marvels? Like +$5 million (say $7 vs $12)? +$6M? More??? Or less?

I would say FNAF previews > 2 * The Marvels previews is the longshot goal

Edited October 13, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[abracadabra1998]

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Wish (T-39, 6 PM Day 1):

Day: T-39	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 11 theaters	48	7	7	5706	0.12

 

Mostly wanted to get into the habit of pulling Day 1 numbers, and set up my sheets for this. Initial seat numbers similar to Haunted Mansion and Paw Patrol in like for like theaters. No Disney fan rush for this one!

[Relevation]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Just a quick temperature check ...

 

What would y'all say is the current appropriate betting line on FNAF previews only vs Marvels? Like +$5 million (say $7 vs $12)? +$6M? More??? Or less?

+$5M 

 

$9-10M The Marvels, $14-15M FNAF

[cannastop]

Wish launched sales but there are still some major AMC and Regal locations not selling tickets yet... will they be up in due time?

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

4 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Wish launched sales but there are still some major AMC and Regal locations not selling tickets yet... will they be up in due time?

 

By default, yes. 

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Just a quick temperature check ...

 

What would y'all say is the current appropriate betting line on FNAF previews only vs Marvels? Like +$5 million (say $7 vs $12)? +$6M? More??? Or less?

 

At $5M, I'd take the under. @Shawn's arguments around ATP is pretty compelling, that lack of PLFs and the younger audiences will bring it down a notch when looking at raw sales.

 

I also feel that we still don't have a good feel on what happened with GOTG3. It was such a radical shift from the usual growth curve for MCU. And initial reviews weren't even that strong for the brand. I feel we can't rule out a stronger late stage rally even with a moderately strong critical response.

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Wish launched sales but there are still some major AMC and Regal locations not selling tickets yet... will they be up in due time?

 

5 minutes ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

 

By default, yes. 

 

The non-snarky answer would be: Prob by Monday.  TET might be throwing a bit of a wildcard into the mix for sheer attention of schedulers.  Sometime this weekend also sounds right.  It's just theater managers might be a tad busy right now.

 

Also might be juggling the schedule to try to figure out what initial screens to give it while trying to figure out relative demand of November releases.

 

(though, really, why it's such a long pre-sale window I have no idea)

[Relevation]

13 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

The non-snarky answer would be: Prob by Monday.  TET might be throwing a bit of a wildcard into the mix for sheer attention of schedulers.  Sometime this weekend also sounds right.  It's just theater managers might be a tad busy right now.

 

Also might be juggling the schedule to try to figure out what initial screens to give it while trying to figure out relative demand of November releases.

 

(though, really, why it's such a long pre-sale window I have no idea)

I don’t even know why they bothered launching today at all without telling anyone, just doing a clean launch off the back of their Disney100 celebration on MON seems like a better play