The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[emoviefan]

53 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

Sadly movies doesn't have any final push when It's the final moment. Everything post strike ends always under predictions.

For me Scorsese will end in the 30-35M range. I really hope not even a little bit under 30. 

Yep this is really showing how important the actors going on the late night shows and walking the red carpets is for the last minute push to get the casuals and GA on board.

[vafrow]

Five Nights at Freddy's, location count update, southern Ontario, MTC4

 

Location counts are just in the process of going up, but they look mainly done.

 

Thursday

Showtimes: 84

Theatre Count: 31 out of 34 available theatres across 63 km radius

 

Friday

Showtimes: 33

Theatre Count: 9 out of 34 available theatres across 63 km radius

 

Some theatres are seeing really strong sales, and likely because they got up a little earlier. I'm guessing the lesser ones just went up more recently.

 

I'm seeing a lot of chatter as shows go up on the cineplex subreddit, as people trying to sort out why some places have showtimes and othees don't. I think it speaks to a large number of people waiting for these tickets to go on sale.

 

If I do a manual count, I'm going to try tomorrow night to get a proper measure after about 24 hours. But, for the radius I'll be doing (smaller than what I used to run, but I kept data by distant tiers), it's probably doing about 2-3x what Saw did by the 24 hour mark.

 

What throws things off from a Saw comparison, is the random theatres with full weekend sets.

 The friday sales are very robust, as they went up first, with some half full auditoriums already.

[Giorno]

The 3 biggest openers of the year might be 2 video game based movies and another based on a doll

 

 

[Austin]

Is the $13.5M preview number for It have even a remotely comparable IM to what FNAF can have with a $13.5M (+/-$1M) preview number? Or has the preview tracking and IM tendencies of the box office just changed that much since before covid?

[Porthos]

25 minutes ago, Austin said:

Is the $13.5M preview number for It have even a remotely comparable IM to what FNAF can have with a $13.5M (+/-$1M) preview number? Or has the preview tracking and IM tendencies of the box office just changed that much since before covid?

 

 

You probably meant to put It in there somewhere.  Re-read the post and found where you said "It"; never mind.

 

Anyway, Completely and radically different.  2pm start times for FNAF vs 7pm for It makes it a completely different paradigm even before demos or shifting buying patterns from the GA come into play.

 

Edited October 18, 2023 by Porthos

[Austin]

33 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

You probably meant to put It in there somewhere.  Re-read the post and found where you said "It"; never mind.

 

Anyway, Completely and radically different.  2pm start times for FNAF vs 7pm for It makes it a completely different paradigm even before demos or shifting buying patterns from the GA come into play.

 

Gotcha, was just curious. Would need closer to $17-18M previews to even consider thinking about reaching It's $123.4M OW.

[Relevation]

10 minutes ago, Austin said:

Gotcha, was just curious. Would need closer to $17-18M previews to even consider thinking about reaching It's $123.4M OW.

 

Mmm idk

My math has this reaching 120 flat with $14.5M for Thurs so if this is posting $15-16M for Thurs (not saying it will) then it could reasonably hit 124 if not higher 

[keysersoze123]

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

MTC2 Previews - 10067/179005 142436.4 1147 shows

 

This is as of this morning and so more like T-3 than T-2. That said its definitely underperforming here relative to

 

Spoiler

MTC1

Previews - 35724/344393 631082.78 2226 shows // > 5K tickets over past day 

Friday - 37644/508602 652584.86 3341 shows

 

Not sure I buy 10x multi for this one.  

 

Still its doing well elsewhere and I am expecting 3.5m previews. 

[Austin]

2 hours ago, Relevation said:

 

Mmm idk

My math has this reaching 120 flat with $14.5M for Thurs so if this is posting $15-16M for Thurs (not saying it will) then it could reasonably hit 124 if not higher 

I'm no expert (so i assume IM is the opening weekend to preview ratio) but if I was going to comp IM's for FNAF I would pick GOTG3 and ATSV because they are both releases this year that had opening weekends close to $120M and then Halloween Kills/Ends which were both the past two October day-and-date release horror films.

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 - 

OW: $118.4M; previews: $17.5M; IM: 6.76x

 

Spiderman: Across the Spider-Verse - 

OW: $120.6M; previews: $17.35M; IM: 6.95x

 

Halloween Kills - OW: $49.4M; previews: $4.85M; IM: 10.19x (outlier)

 

Halloween Ends - OW: $40M; previews: $5.4M: IM: 7.42x

 

Average IM: 7.83x

Without Halloween Kills: 7.05x

 

It's OW: $123.4M

 

 

Target previews based off average IM: $15.75M

Without Halloween Kills: $17.5M

 

 

This is while not taking into account other factors like discounted kid prices, unknown PLF allocation, screen capacity issues (hopefully to be resolved or alleviated if needed), and a strange marketing/release strategy outside of the day-and-date release stuff. This would make me want to bump the previews target up to the $18M (+/- $1M) range to even sniff at the horror record. 

Edited October 18, 2023 by Austin

[DAJK]

FNAF is rated 14A in British Columbia. Ain’t no “kid priced tickets” being bought unless parents are taking their kids.

[Austin]

23 minutes ago, DAJK said:

FNAF is rated 14A in British Columbia. Ain’t no “kid priced tickets” being bought unless parents are taking their kids.

A nice chunk of the fandom is pretty young still so that will be the case from what I can see.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Five Nights At Freddy's Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-10 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	102	12969	15271	2302	15.07%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

154

 

T-10 Comps:   WARNING - USE ONLY FOR DAILY PACE PURPOSES FOR OF THE BELOW COMPS

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	205.35		47	1121		0/148	21302/22423	5.00%		4494	51.22%		15.40m
Scrm6	284.90		46	808		0/77	8931/9739	8.30%		3134	73.45%		16.24m
Wick4	165.37		59	1392		0/95	12399/13791	10.09%		5448	42.25%		14.72m
AtSV	95.88		154	2401		0/129	18385/20786	11.55%		9744	23.62%		16.63m
GOTG3	57.04		153	4036		0/205	25321/29357	13.75%		10750	21.41%		9.98m
Flash	161.09		59	1429		0/178	23719/25148	5.68%		5327	43.21%		15.63m
Barbie	78.62		426	2928		0/99	9785/12713	23.03%		12077	19.06%		17.53m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of FNAFs current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     499/3078  [16.21% sold]
Matinee:    186/926  [20.09% | 8.08% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

You know, I'm starting to think this film might be on the verge of breaking out.

 

Five Nights At Freddy's Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-9 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	122	15268	17695	2427	13.72%

 

Total Showings Added Today	20
Total Seats Added Today	2424
Total Seats Sold Today	125

 

T-9 Comps:   WARNING - USE MOSTLY FOR DAILY PACE PURPOSES FOR THE BELOW COMPS

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	203.61		71	1192		0/152	21769/22961	5.19%		4494	54.01%		15.27m
Scrm6	285.53		42	850		0/77	8897/9747	8.72%		3134	77.44%		16.28m
Wick4	165.89		71	1463		0/109	13836/15299	9.56%		5448	44.55%		14.76m
AtSV	93.60		192	2593		0/140	19549/22142	11.71%		9744	24.91%		16.24m
GOTG3	57.25		124	4239		0/207	25745/29984	14.14%		10750	22.58%		10.02m
TLM	113.94		125	2130		0/165	21370/23500	9.06%		6561	36.99%		11.74m
Flash	156.68		120	1549		0/175	23344/24893	6.22%		5327	45.56%		15.20m
Barbie	75.14		302	3230		0/127	12791/16071	20.10%		12077	20.10%		16.76m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of FNAFs current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     533/3078  [17.32% sold]
Matinee:    203/926  [21.92% | 8.36% of all tickets sold]

 

=========

 

From earlier today:

 

9 hours ago, Porthos said:

re: FNAF screen/seat count discussion...

 

 

MTC3 count is rather low here as well.  Though I will note that, locally at least, screen expansion really doesn't start until T-6 or so.  Sometimes  a few MTC2s will expand a little early, especially the bigger ones in the market.  But the initial sets are the initial sets barring something truly big happening mid-run.  

 

FWIW, not counting the local drive-in:

 

MTC1:  n/a in the market

MTC2:  72 showings | at least three screens at all locations, except one that only has nine screens total.

MTC3:  20 showings | one screen at all locations except one that has a PLF screen.

---

Mini1:  8 showings | n/a at two theaters, PLF coverage at two others + 1 extra screen at a 16 screen location

Mini2:  1 showing.

 

What happened locally is that everyone had a very small initial set, but MTC2 jumped out and planted their flag nearly immediately into the pre-sale period.  Everyone else is hanging back.  Hell, one of the minis still hasn't put up any Thur showings at two of their locations.  One only has six screens, with limited hours, so understandable for that location.  The other though?  Got admit surprised to see it still empty for Thur.

 

Don't know if there is also corporate wrangling going on behind the scenes or not, but in my market at least one of the majors was far more proactive than the other when it comes to FNAF.

 

So literally.... LIT-ER-A-LY... EVERY SINGLE LOCAL MTC2 THEATER EXCEPT ONE EXPANDED SCREEN COUNTS TONIGHT.  Plus one of the minors also added a showing*.

*though technically not a screen as it added a late night showing.

 

...

 

So what about MTC3?!?

 

Let's get a Live Look locally what's going on over at MTC3 when it comes to approving more screens:

 

(not a single one of the added showings was at MTC3)

((amazing, innit?))

Edited October 18, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-24 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	187	26658	27515	857	3.11%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

49

 

T-24 Comps:

	%		Sold T-24	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	98.05		874	874		0/96	14669/15543	5.62%		6409	13.37%		10.53m
GOTG3	30.66		107	2795		0/206	26876/29671	9.42%		10750	7.97%		5.37m
TLM	30.66		107	2795		0/206	26876/29671	9.42%		6561	13.06%		3.16m
AtSV	84.10		1019	1019		0/124	17505/18524	5.50%		9744	8.80%		14.60m
Indy 5	102.51		44	836		0/124	18688/19524	4.28%		4767	17.98%		7.38m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     114/8661  [1.32% sold]
Matinee:    28/2547  [1.10% | 3.27% of all tickets sold]
3D:            57/4989  [1.14% | 6.65% of all tickets sold]

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-23 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	187	26628	27515	887	3.22%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

30

 

T-23 Comps:

	%		Sold T-23	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	82.67		199	1073		0/96	14470/15543	6.90%		6409	13.84%		8.88m
GOTG3	30.49		114	2909		0/206	26760/29669	9.80%		10750	8.25%		5.34m
TLM	104.48		59	849		0/154	21799/22648	3.75%		6561	13.52%		10.76m
AtSV	69.73		253	1272		0/123	18626/19898	6.39%		9744	9.10%		12.11m
Flash	138.59		640	640		0/158	21727/22367	2.86%		5327	16.65%		13.44m
Indy 5	104.72		11	847		0/124	18674/19521	4.34%		4767	18.61%		7.54m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     120/8661  [1.39% sold]
Matinee:    28/2547  [1.10% | 3.16% of all tickets sold]
3D:            65/4989  [1.30% | 7.33% of all tickets sold]

 

---

 

IMPORTANT NOTE:

 

Many of the above comps are just starting out their pre-sale runs, so, obvs, take with a grain of salt until they stabilize.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Killers of the Flower Moon Sacto Check [T-3]

650/9328 (6.97% sold) [+126 tickets] 72 showtimes

 

0.53454x Nope at T-3              [3.42m]

0.59145x Creed III at T-3          [3.22m]

0.23123x Oppenheimer at T-3 [2.43m]

 

I dunno, fam.  Still looking like mid-to-low 3's to me.  But I don't track all that many low openers, so could be wrong.  Have to see how it goes.

 

Quick and Dirty Killers of the Flower Moon Sacto Check [T-2]

820/11634 (7.05% sold) [+170 tickets] 91 showtimes

 

0.52937x Nope at T-2                [3.39m]

0.57784x Creed III at T-2           [3.15m]

0.27305x Oppenheimer at T-2  [2.87m]

[TwoMisfits]

7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

MTC2 Previews - 10067/179005 142436.4 1147 shows

 

This is as of this morning and so more like T-3 than T-2. That said its definitely underperforming here relative to

 

  Hide contents

MTC1

Previews - 35724/344393 631082.78 2226 shows // > 5K tickets over past day 

Friday - 37644/508602 652584.86 3341 shows

 

Not sure I buy 10x multi for this one.  

 

Still its doing well elsewhere and I am expecting 3.5m previews. 

 

With MTC 2 on Atom and not getting any real bump from the TMobile deal yesterday. it's possible this is not breaking as far into the GA as folks might want.  AKA - even at $5, this movie may be too big an ask for the normal "every once in awhile" movie goer.

[vafrow]

5 hours ago, DAJK said:

FNAF is rated 14A in British Columbia. Ain’t no “kid priced tickets” being bought unless parents are taking their kids.

 

It has the same rating as M3GAN, which had a lot of unaccompanied kids in my screening. I wonder if it's a case where theatre employees aren't being that vigilant, or was there an adult with them sitting separately.

 

I think younger kids will find a way to see this. Especially since it's likely going to be the type of movie that's a point of pride for kids to have said they've seen.

 

I go back to the review embargo decision being a bad choice, as families will want some information to go on. It makes me think the weekend multiplier may be decent.

[TheFlatLannister]

11 hours ago, M37 said:

I fucked something up last night…I think the $14.5M was Barbie, ill check when I get home 

[M37]

5 hours ago, Porthos said:

So literally.... LIT-ER-A-LY... EVERY SINGLE LOCAL MTC2 THEATER EXCEPT ONE EXPANDED SCREEN COUNTS TONIGHT.  Plus one of the minors also added a showing*.

FWIW, seeing the same in some additional market spot checks - just like with the ERAS late added Thursday shows, they came out swinging with show volume, only this time the ROI should be much higher

 

19 hours ago, M37 said:

Its a bit amazing to me how much the industry is sleeping on FNAF; or perhaps still waiting to see how ERAS does in weekend 2 before fully committing (or quietly sticking it to Universal for non-theatrical-exclusive release)

 

Canada is just putting shows up for sale, and most tracked markets have double the seats allocated for Marvels, with many giving an equivalent number to Wish

 

I'm sure they'll be some correction in the final days, but I'm not convinced they'll fully be able to catch up to the volume its looking like will be needed

🤯

 

To the MTC2 bigwig who is (apparently) now lurking on BOT

Feel free to like this post and say hi back!

This expansion is likely (probably?) a coincidence, given the timing on Tue when screens for the upcoming weekend are allocated and rolled out to theaters, but ...

[seems I'm inching ever closer to some BOT-anon conspiracy theory about being watched]

 

Somewhat related

Spoiler

Speaking of BOT tracking expanding its reach (and influence?), the amount of cross-posting has led to the creation of a new tag on the r/boxoffice sub

 

[Taylor89]

9 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

MTC2 Previews - 10067/179005 142436.4 1147 shows

 

This is as of this morning and so more like T-3 than T-2. That said its definitely underperforming here relative to

 

  Reveal hidden contents

MTC1

Previews - 35724/344393 631082.78 2226 shows // > 5K tickets over past day 

Friday - 37644/508602 652584.86 3341 shows

 

Not sure I buy 10x multi for this one.  

 

Still its doing well elsewhere and I am expecting 3.5m previews. 

 

Can eras be number 1 for second week too?

[M37]

48 minutes ago, Taylor89 said:

 

Can eras be number 1 for second week too?

Related question: will the Thursday shows this week be counted separately or rolled into the weekend total? I would presume the former, but with such a weird and limited schedule, I’m not positive the latter won’t happen to help generate headlines