The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/20/2023 at 3:59 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Marvels Emagine Entertainment

T-20 Thursday

158 Showings

873

+38

25519

0.953	Indiana Jones 5 T-20	6.86M
1.125	The Flash T-20	10.91M

 

T-21 Friday

242 Showings

390

+20

39640

0.982	Indiana Jones 5 T-21	16.50M
1.048	The Flash T-21	15.52M

 

T-22 Saturday

252 Showings

330

+12

40521

1.440	Indiana Jones 5 T-22	26.76M
1.231	The Flash T-22	19.33M

 

T-23 Sunday

238 Showings

141

-4

38840

1.704	Indiana Jones 5 T-23	30.85M
1.424	The Flash T-23	22.08M

The Marvels Emagine Entertainment [+3 days of sales]

T-17 Thursday

158 Showings

935

+62

25522

0.861	Indiana Jones 5 T-17	6.20M
1.058	The Flash T-17	10.26M

 

T-18 Friday

242 Showings

471

+81

39648

0.837	Indiana Jones 5 T-18	14.06M
1.024	The Flash T-18	15.15M

 

T-19 Saturday

252 Showings

404

+74

40523

1.183	Indiana Jones 5 T-19	21.98M
1.221	The Flash T-19	19.16M

 

T-20 Sunday

240 Showings

191

+50

39121

1.360	Indiana Jones 5 T-20	24.61M
1.605	The Flash T-20	24.88M

[TheFlatLannister]

On 10/22/2023 at 6:35 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-30

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
153	543	27838	2.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

4

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

Tomorrow I will have comp

 

402 seats sold at MTC1 Disney over 6 showings 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-29

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
162	547	29762	1.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

4

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

9

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-29

 

(1.581x) of Elemental $3.79M Previews

 

@Relevation I started tracking Haunted Mansion at T-24

 

Anyways, if the Elemental comps is accurate this is a pretty decent start I would say

[TheFlatLannister]

On 10/22/2023 at 6:38 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

Trolls: Band Together 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-25

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
171	230	31233	0.74%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

36

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-25

 

(0.620x) of Elemental $1.49M Previews

 

1 showing is listed as "sold-out" but im skeptical

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

Trolls: Band Together 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-24

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
171	278	31233	0.89%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

48

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-24

 

EA on Saturday = 154 seats sold 

*EA is separated from Thursday gross 

 

(0.720x) of Elemental $1.73M Previews

 

Fandango might be trolling with the "movie time is sold out" which could be inflating sales. I'll have to wait and see. 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 10/22/2023 at 6:40 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Marvels 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-18

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
259	2179	52152	4.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

13

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-18

 

(0.450x) of GOTG3~$7.88M Previews

(1.191x) of Indy 5~$8.57M Previews

Comps AVG: $8.23M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Marvels 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-17

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
259	2208	52152	4.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

29

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-17

 

 

(0.443x) of GOTG3~$7.75M Previews

Comps AVG: $7.75M

 

Remember when I said...

On 10/12/2023 at 7:17 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

1. Pace is actually pretty good??? So maybe the ceiling isn't collapsing just yet

2. In the grand scheme of things, pace doesn't matter so much since its starting from such a low baseline

 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 10/22/2023 at 6:44 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
205	3864	38173	10.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

239

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-4

 

(1.152x) of Flash $11.17M Previews

(0.696x) of ATSV $12.08M Previews

(1.918x) of Fast X $14.38M Previews

(0.574x) of Barbie $12.11M Previews

Comps AVG: $12.44M

 

Another excellent day 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
231	4313	43329	9.95%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

449

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

26

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-3

 

(1.194x) of Flash $11.58M Previews

(0.717x) of ATSV $12.44M Previews

(1.953x) of Fast X $14.65M Previews

(0.561x) of Barbie $11.83M Previews

Comps AVG: $12.63M

 

Looks like exhibitors are giving this a blockbuster rollout. Previews over The Marvels looks locked imo (barring some crazy late surge by The Marvels)

[abracadabra1998]

20 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Five Nights at Freddy's (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	68	402	1648	10376	15.88

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		269	N/A	16.32
MTC1:		759	140	46.06
Marcus:		276	101	16.75
Alamo:		82	9	4.98
Other chains:		531	152	32.22

 

Comps:

1.22x Mission Impossible 7 (Just Tuesday): $8.52 Million

0.42x Barbie (Just Thursday): $8.85 Million

1.37x Indiana Jones 5: $9.89 Million

 

Frustratingly, it keeps dropping. Don't know why this is underperforming here, odd. I know I have bad comps but I don't know what else could work here.

 

After Death (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 12 theaters	25	170	170	1886	9.01

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	N/A	0
MTC1:		48	N/A	28.24
Marcus:		6	N/A	3.53
Alamo:		0	N/A	0
Other chains:		116	N/A	68.24

 

Comps:

0.25x Killers of the Flower Moon: $658k

1.19x Haunting in Venice: $1.43 Million

2.125x Big Fat Greek Wedding 3: $1.17 Million

0.87x Asteroid City: $960k

 

Not the best comps, but $1 million sounds right.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Five Nights at Freddy's (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	69	313	1961	10552	18.58

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		349	80	17.8
MTC1:		883	124	45.03
Marcus:		357	81	18.2
Alamo:		84	2	4.28
Other chains:		637	106	32.48

 

Comps:

1.28x Mission Impossible 7 (Just Tuesday): $8.97 Million

0.38x Barbie (Just Thursday): $8.11 Million

1.35x Indiana Jones 5: $9.73 Million

 

Average: $8.94 million

 

I blame it on capacity at this point, since so many primetime showings are near sold out at this point, so I imagine many people are buying tickets for Friday and the weekend instead on account of that. If they're giving this the blockbuster treatment in Orlando, like @TheFlatLannister said, here they're completely shunning it. 69 shows is exactly what Blue Beetle had at T-3, ffs. Between T-3 and T-2 is when a lot of theaters expand their sets here, I have noticed (BB had 98 at T-2, for example), so I am holding out hope for it. This is in addition to it obviously under-indexing here 

 

After Death (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 12 theaters	25	19	189	1886	10.02

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		58	10	30.69
Marcus:		6	0	3.17
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		125	9	66.14

 

Comps:

0.24x Killers of the Flower Moon: $639k

1.14x Haunting in Venice (Just Thursday): $1.26 Million

2.36x Big Fat Greek Wedding 3: $1.3 Million

0.75x Asteroid City: $826k

 

Average: $1 million

[CJohn]

Like... what is a realistic target for FNAF? I can't ignore this anymore. Has anyone looked at Friday sales? What are we looking at? 30M+ OD and 60M OW?

[keysersoze123]

Just now, CJohn said:

Like... what is a realistic target for FNAF? I can't ignore this anymore. Has anyone looked at Friday sales? What are we looking at? 30M+ OD and 60M OW?

Friday is so strong, I cant see it go below 35m OD. May be even 40m+ if final week surges go as what is seen so far. 

[TheFlatLannister]

11 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Five Nights at Freddy's (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	69	313	1961	10552	18.58

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		349	80	17.8
MTC1:		883	124	45.03
Marcus:		357	81	18.2
Alamo:		84	2	4.28
Other chains:		637	106	32.48

 

Comps:

1.28x Mission Impossible 7 (Just Tuesday): $8.97 Million

0.38x Barbie (Just Thursday): $8.11 Million

1.35x Indiana Jones 5: $9.73 Million

 

Average: $8.94 million

 

I blame it on capacity at this point, since so many primetime showings are near sold out at this point, so I imagine many people are buying tickets for Friday and the weekend instead on account of that. If they're giving this the blockbuster treatment in Orlando, like @TheFlatLannister said, here they're completely shunning it. 69 shows is exactly what Blue Beetle had at T-3, ffs. Between T-3 and T-2 is when a lot of theaters expand their sets here, I have noticed (BB had 98 at T-2, for example), so I am holding out hope for it. This is in addition to it obviously under-indexing here 

 

After Death (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 12 theaters	25	19	189	1886	10.02

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		58	10	30.69
Marcus:		6	0	3.17
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		125	9	66.14

 

Comps:

0.24x Killers of the Flower Moon: $639k

1.14x Haunting in Venice (Just Thursday): $1.26 Million

2.36x Big Fat Greek Wedding 3: $1.3 Million

0.75x Asteroid City: $826k

 

Average: $1 million

Almost 19% of seats sold is really good, but yeah capacity in Minneapolis is really capping it 

[keysersoze123]

Five nights at Freddy's MTC2

Previews - 70507/522025 922317.83 3706 shows

Friday - 100293/668997 1218205.75 4403 shows // as of yesterday afternoon and data missing for ~400 shows

 

Ratio relative to other MTC is so strong that its over performing here. Plus that thursday to Friday ratio is also equally strong. 

 

At this point where its going to end up is still up in the air due to various factors. Its pace now is slightly below Venom 2 but with much higher tickets sold. I think it will hit double digits but not teens. So somewhere in 11-12m and Friday being super strong for mid to high 30s OD including previews. May be even 40m+ OD if everything goes well. 

Edited October 24, 2023 by keysersoze123

[abracadabra1998]

12 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Almost 19% of seats sold is really good, but yeah capacity in Minneapolis is really capping it 

Yep, usually I look at your % occupied seats for reference, and we usually match (you track more theaters, thus more seats sold, but usually our percentages match pretty well), but there’s a clear lag here in this case  

[M37]

54 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Looks like exhibitors are giving this a blockbuster rollout.

Your market is getting better, and probably more shows are added before final bell, but still trailing Marvels allocation everywhere

 

Market: FNAF vs Marvels Previews (shows/seats)

• Orlando: 231/43,329 vs 259/52,152
• OK: 141/19,325 vs 173/32,650
  • with MTC at 32/3,333 vs 59/10,459
• Denver: 88/14,646 vs 139/26,872
• Drafthouse: 163/19,391 vs 168/25,199
• Emagine: 124/18,180 vs 158/25,552
• Sacto: 159/21,466 vs 189/27,574 (Sunday update)

Really looks like MTC1 is the one holding back the most, and if (when?) they come on board, it should at least be close. But checking back, its still more shows & seats than ATSV final for both Orlando and Sacto - its really Marvels which is waaaaay overbooked - so not too worried about capacity for Thursday. Now Friday however, might be another story...

 

22 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

I blame it on capacity at this point, since so many primetime showings are near sold out at this point, so I imagine many people are buying tickets for Friday and the weekend instead on account of that. If they're giving this the blockbuster treatment in Orlando, like @TheFlatLannister said, here they're completely shunning it. 69 shows is exactly what Blue Beetle had at T-3, ffs. Between T-3 and T-2 is when a lot of theaters expand their sets here, I have noticed (BB had 98 at T-2, for example), so I am holding out hope for it. This is in addition to it obviously under-indexing here 

Along with capacity, if it's playing young, could just be a school night effect, parents not letting kids go until weekend in your market. Maybe do a spot check on Friday not for $ value comps, but to see the ratio between the days. Wouldn't be surprised if its similar to Emagine

[Relevation]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

COMPS

T-29

 

(1.581x) of Elemental $3.79M Previews

Yeah like I don’t expect that to hold given you’re comparing 9 days to 1, but that is REALLY good if it can hold. $3.79M would be by far the biggest non-Frozen II previews for a WDAS film ever

 

Averaging out Encanto and Strange World’s IMs from TUE to their 5-days gets me around 25x, so if Wish can do that off $3.79M previews, you’re talking a magnificent $94.75M 5-day opening

[cannastop]

3 minutes ago, Relevation said:

you’re talking a magnificent $94.75M 5-day opening

Would be the biggest 5 day opening ever for Thanksgiving.

[M37]

28 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Like... what is a realistic target for FNAF? I can't ignore this anymore. Has anyone looked at Friday sales? What are we looking at? 30M+ OD and 60M OW?

 

Sounds like something said in the MTC1 film office today 🙃

 

 

11 hours ago, M37 said:

Still believe over $40M OD (including previews) and $80M+ OW is happening, just may be more Friday heavy than IM math in original post anticipated, something along lines of $11M/8x rather than $13M/7x

[vafrow]

21 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Five Nights at Freddy's, T-4, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 1286

New sales: 285

Growth: 29.1%

Theatres: 10

Showtimes: 32

Tickets per showtime: 39.7

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

9.81x Saw X for $19.6M 

25.15x Nun 2 for $77.8M

 

Local Single Theatre Comps

1.26x ATSV for $21.8M

0.85x Barbie for $19.0M

 

Not sure what else to say. This continues to do well down the stretch. Any other comp I could throw at it would have it be doing even better. At the local level, it's already nearly matched what GOTG3 sold at T-1.

 

I've already made plans to take my kid on the weekend, and, because I'm tracking it, I know I probably have to book when it opens to get a preferred seat.

 

Five Nights at Freddy's, T-3, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 1544

New sales: 278

Growth: 22.0%

Theatres: 10

Showtimes: 32

Tickets per showtime: 48.3

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

9.22x Saw X for $18.4M 

25.3x Nun 2 for $78.5M

 

Local Single Theatre Comps

1.24x ATSV for $21.4M

0.95x Barbie for $21.1M

 

 

Same story as others in Canada. This is just resonating differently up here. I'm short on theories on why.

 

Potentially, with Peacock not available up here, maybe it's driving more demand. Although, in the area I'm tracking, use of illegal streaming boxes is pretty prevalent due to the demographics, and people using that as their primary viewing option to access different cultural programming. This will be available through those boxes almost immediately. And I doubt most people track or realize that it will be available.

 

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Good reviews were not saving this film anyways. They're waving the white flag

Give it 95% RT, it will do well.

[abracadabra1998]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Along with capacity, if it's playing young, could just be a school night effect, parents not letting kids go until weekend in your market. Maybe do a spot check on Friday not for $ value comps, but to see the ratio between the days. Wouldn't be surprised if its similar to Emagine

 

Had some free time, so I went ahead and checked:

 

Minneapolis FNAF Thursday: 69 showings, 1961 seats sold

Minneapolis FNAF Friday: 109 showings, 3935 seats sold

 

Ratios: Friday is at 1.58x showings, 2x seats sold of Thursday

 

vs.

 

Emagine FNAF Thursday: 124 showings, 3093 seats sold

Emagine FNAF Friday: 155 showings, 7491 seats sold

 

Ratios: Friday is at 1.25x showings, 2.42x seats sold of Thursday (thanks @Inceptionzq)

 

As always, @M37, you're all-knowing! Not quite as strong as Emagine's ratio, but 2x seats from Thursday is really nice. Plus the differences between % filled of 12-4 PM versus 4-10 PM showings is something else, this is definitely looking like the behavior of a younger crowd. Makes me feel a little less worried about bad Thursday data.

[Austin]

2 hours ago, CJohn said:

Like... what is a realistic target for FNAF? I can't ignore this anymore. Has anyone looked at Friday sales? What are we looking at? 30M+ OD and 60M OW?

Have you not seen like any of @M37's posts???

[keysersoze123]

15 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Five Night at Freddy's

Previews - 77829/381912 1145847.87 2556 shows

Friday - 114909/447601 1696214.93 2923 shows

 

We are now at final stretch. Let us see how it accelerates from this point. Its preview pace is lower than Venom 2 years ago. That said this is going to under index here. Its strong everywhere else as well. 

Five Nights of Freddy's Previews - 87335/436590 1289036.21 2951 shows +9506

 

I will update Friday in the morning. I would say growth is good. Around 35% from yesterday's pace but still previews are less exciting compared to Friday where I expect somewhere between 15-17K today. Still I am hopeful on double digit previews and good OW( 70m+).  

 

Shows did grow but nothing crazy yet. I am expect bigger growth tomorrow.