The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Eric Prime]

23 minutes ago, YM! said:

Wish was supposed to be tracked today but there seems to be no record of it.

How will we ever survive???????????

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

This was discussed a bit around GOTG3 tracking, and the problem with determining such an effect is that MCU previews on the whole have been descending over that time period:

• NWH $50M
• DrS-MoM $36M
• Thor L&T $29M
• BPWF $28M
• AMWQ $17.5M
• GOTG3 $17.5M

[Could throw Shang-Chi and Eternals in there, but that was still semi-COVID time, which could have changed the presale patterns, in that some people were less willing to commit to a (potentially) packed public showing weeks in advance]

The only real outlier in that stretch is AMWQ, which had high early presale buys and then a disastrous finish relative to its overall volume.  Marrvels started - and will likely finish - below all of them, so the broad trendline is still down, and disentangling some secondary cause & effect becomes almost impossible

 

I agree its been declining. However, that's the point I was looking to tease out. I was looking at that same list of opening day grosses when made the post.

 

The two lowest drops from prior films are probably the two films that had the strongest walk up effects. Taking that effect out likely gives us a much more linear decline. It's already pretty close to that, but it just jumped out to me that the two biggest outliers for declines had that walk up factor. And this thread is the one place where there's data where an attempt can be made to isolate that variable.

 

I'm probably not articulating it well though. If I have a chance later this week, I may try and see what data I can pull through old posts.

 

 

[jeffthehat]

On 10/26/2023 at 1:31 PM, jeffthehat said:

The Marvels T-14

 

Coverage - 10/33 Malco theaters

Show count - 32

Seats sold - 461

Total seats - 6048

% sold - 7.6%

 

Comp

 

Eras Fri T-14 = $4.08m / $2.21m ATP adjusted (-45%)

---

 

The Eras comp is obv low-balling. But what's interesting/sad is that Marvels has been keeping pace with it. At T-23 the comp was $2.24m ATP adjusted. 🙃

 

 

 

The Marvels T-10 (4 days of sales)

 

Coverage - 10/33 Malco theaters

Show count - 32

Seats sold - 488

Total seats - 6048

% sold - 8.1%

New sales - 27 (+5.9%)

4-day average of new sales - 6.75 tickets/day

Comp

 

0.11x Eras Fri T-10 = $4.08m / $2.21m ATP adjusted (-45%)*

*shitty comp, only watching the pace 

---

 

Still pacing alongside Eras here. But think Eras growth was higher in this sample than others. 

 

 

 

 

 

[M37]

9 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

I agree its been declining. However, that's the point I was looking to tease out. I was looking at that same list of opening day grosses when made the post.

 

The two lowest drops from prior films are probably the two films that had the strongest walk up effects. Taking that effect out likely gives us a much more linear decline. It's already pretty close to that, but it just jumped out to me that the two biggest outliers for declines had that walk up factor. And this thread is the one place where there's data where an attempt can be made to isolate that variable.

 

I'm probably not articulating it well though. If I have a chance later this week, I may try and see what data I can pull through old posts.

 

 

Never linear, always exponential/logarithmic 😉

 

And yeah, maybe I'm not quite understanding what you're asking, but the issue is in general, the lower the early/fan base pre-sale number, the higher the walk-up (growth) rate. Not every film sells the same % of its ticket total on opening day/within first week, but rather that you would expect a $30M preview to sell say 20%, and a $10M preview only 10%. [Which is why most trackers avoid comping big with small]

 

In order to find a decline in starting value (initial sales interest) over time - which is what I believe you're asking about - you'd have to compare (at least) two similar preview totals that opened far apart ... and we just don't have any in the MCU sub-data set. Marvels is now the lowest data point, there's nothing else to anchor the trendline at that level (unless you incorporate Shang-Chi and Eternals, which IMO have added complexity), and so it's virtually impossible to prove some outlier/variance status beyond whatever margin of error exits from the extrapolation

[YM!]

1 hour ago, Eric Fazbear said:

How will we ever survive???????????

Wasn’t complaining lol, was just curious why it didn’t update as Trolls did even with slight momentum change.

[keysersoze123]

Trolls Band Together 

Early Shows(11/4) - 5249/47862 52417.79 272 shows

Previews(11/16) -  2416/302550 33375.10 2003 shows

 

Preview number is incredible weak but its expected considering it has sufficient shows for upcoming saturday that can meet the demand. I think WOM post that will help/hinder its previews. Compared to that Wish early shows were added late and is only 3 days before previews and so just sold 804 tickets so far. I think we have to wait to predict this movie. 

[Porthos]

Getting a fair amount of discussion in the strike thread, but looks like Lionsgate and SAG-AFTRA have reached an interim agreement, as the Hunger Games prequel now has a SAG Waiver:

 

 

Could mean a decent boost on pre-sales/tracking on the horizon for it.  Esp with ticket sales starting Wed.

Edited October 30, 2023 by Porthos

[Arlborn]

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Getting a fair amount of discussion in the strike thread, but looks like Lionsgate and SAG-AFTRA have reached an interim agreement, as the Hunger Games prequel now has a SAG Waiver:

 

 

Could mean a decent boost on pre-sales/tracking on the horizon for it.  Esp with ticket sales starting Wed.

This could prove/disprove some theories I’ve seen thrown around here that the pace of the pre-sales for the last couple of days before a movie opens is relatively low lately because of no actors promotion.

 

This will be interesting to keep an eye on.

[el sid]

Priscilla, counted today for Thursday had nice 128 sold tickets in only 3 theaters (the AMCs in Miami, San Francisco and LA).
Comps (always counted for Thursday): 80 for Brady had 1 day later, on Tuesday of the release week, 120 sold tickets,
Crawdads had 122 sold tickets,
Death on the Nile had 212 sold tickets

and Ticket to Paradise had 58 sold tickets.

And for Friday it had today 146 sold tickets, again in only 3 theaters (the same as above).
Comps (always counted for Friday): 80 for Brady had 1 day later, on Tuesday of the release week, 91 sold tickets,
Crawdads had 87 sold tickets,
Death on the Nile had 198 sold tickets

and Ticket to Paradise had 71 sold tickets.

 

Not bad at all, at the moment it looks like double digits could happen.

Edited October 30, 2023 by el sid

[M37]

5 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

This could prove/disprove some theories I’ve seen thrown around here that the pace of the pre-sales for the last couple of days before a movie opens is relatively low lately because of no actors promotion.

 

This will be interesting to keep an eye on.

I’ve also said it’s low because of lead up to/distraction of Halloween, and since (it appears) both with remove at similar time, not sure how one could say it’s exclusively one or the other 

Edited October 30, 2023 by M37

[Porthos]

16 minutes ago, M37 said:

I’ve also said it’s low because of lead up to/distraction of Halloween, and since (it appears) both with remove at similar time, not sure how one could say it’s exclusively one or the other 

 

Looking at the other side of things, the start of pre-sales will also be getting attention for newsiness of the waiver itself, though timing is a bit of a concern as ticket sales start, I believe, on Wed, so the story will already be 48 hours old by then.  Still, depending on how fast actors on the project can actually start talking about things might be able to catch part of that attention cycle.

 

Presuming other strike news doesn't overtake discussion, of course.  Which is no sure bet.

 

Kiiiinda wondering if Lionsgate is tempted to start pre-sales a day early or not?  Probably piss off theater chains if they did that, though initial sets have been long set from what I can see.  Still, Lionsgate has to be somewhat tempted to ride the wave right now...

[Relevation]

On 10/13/2023 at 2:39 PM, misterpepp said:

 

Getting word this has been moved up a day to Oct 31.

 

Also, tickets for The Shift go on sale Oct 18.

@Porthos HG tickets were moved up to Oct 31 earlier

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Relevation said:

@Porthos HG tickets were moved up to Oct 31 earlier

 

Thanks!  Did a search for Hunger so I missed that. 

 

In that case, works out pretty well.

 

Buzz for Waiver announcement today, buzz for actual sales tomorrow.  Nice piece of synergy.

[TheFlatLannister]

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

PRISCILLA

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
122	121	21295	0.57%

^{*numbers taken as of 5:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-3

 

(0.169x) of KOTFM $438K Previews

(0.287x) of A Haunting at Venice $344K Previews

(0.318x) of Asteroid City $348K Previews

Comps AVG: $377k

Edited October 30, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[Hilts]

On 10/29/2023 at 9:54 PM, Hilts said:

 

The Marvels							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$16.72
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-15	21	173	6	585	32,650	1.79%	1.04%
T-14	21	173	6	591	32,650	1.81%	1.03%
T-13	21	173	13	604	32,650	1.85%	2.20%
T-12	21	173	24	628	32,650	1.92%	3.97%
T-11	21	173	29	657	32,650	2.01%	4.62%
MTC1	8	59	+10	333	10,485	3.18%	3.10%
MTC2	4	48	+2	87	8,204	1.06%	2.35%
MTC3	3	39	+14	180	8,077	2.23%	8.43%
Other	6	27	+3	57	5,884	0.97%	5.56%
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.660x	=	$4.75m
Barbie					0.317x	=	$7.05m
Oppenheimer					0.589x	=	$6.19m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.911x	=	$8.02m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					1.752x	=	$9.81m
Five Nights at Freddy's					0.562x	=	$5.79m

 

Matinee: 2.59%

3D: 10.05%

PLF: 61.49%

 

Comp average: $6.93m

 

Similar story to yesterday but Indy went up slightly (although much lower would be alarming).

 

The Marvels							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$16.78
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-14	21	173	6	591	32,650	1.81%	1.03%
T-13	21	173	13	604	32,650	1.85%	2.20%
T-12	21	173	24	628	32,650	1.92%	3.97%
T-11	21	173	29	657	32,650	2.01%	4.62%
T-10	21	171	33	690	31,973	2.16%	5.02%
MTC1	8	59	+15	348	10,485	3.32%	4.50%
MTC2	4	48	+6	93	8,204	1.13%	6.90%
MTC3	3	39	+12	192	8,077	2.38%	6.67%
Other	6	25	0	57	5,207	1.09%	0.00%
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.669x	=	$4.82m
Barbie					0.302x	=	$6.71m
Oppenheimer					0.578x	=	$6.07m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.919x	=	$8.09m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					1.647x	=	$9.22m
Five Nights at Freddy's					0.565x	=	$5.82m

 

Matinee: 2.46%

3D: 10.14%

PLF: 61.45%

 

Comp average: $6.79m

 

Lost a couple of shows that had sold nada. Despite average drop, gained on Indy (again) and FNAF today.

Edited October 30, 2023 by Hilts

[TheFlatLannister]

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THANKSGIVING

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-17

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
123	59	20993	0.28%

^{*numbers taken as of 5:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-17

 

(0.143x) of Exorcist $407K Previews

Comps AVG: $407k

[Hilts]

Priscilla							OK
Thursday - showings starting 4pm						ATP	$12.99
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-7	7	14	2	13	1,471	0.88%	18.18%
T-6	7	14	6	19	1,471	1.29%	46.15%
T-5	7	14	4	23	1,471	1.56%	21.05%
T-4	7	14	13	36	1,471	2.45%	56.52%
T-3	7	14	17	53	1,471	3.60%	47.22%
MTC1	4	6	+7	29	544	5.33%	31.82%
MTC2	1	2	+2	10	204	4.90%	25.00%
MTC3	2	6	+8	14	723	1.94%	133.33%
Comps
Asteroid City					0.421x	=	$0.46m
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3					0.726x	=	$0.40m
A Haunting In Venice					0.381x	=	$0.46m

 

Comp average: $440k

[Grand Cine]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Trolls Band Together 

Early Shows(11/4) - 5249/47862 52417.79 272 shows

Previews(11/16) -  2416/302550 33375.10 2003 shows

 

Preview number is incredible weak but its expected considering it has sufficient shows for upcoming saturday that can meet the demand. I think WOM post that will help/hinder its previews. Compared to that Wish early shows were added late and is only 3 days before previews and so just sold 804 tickets so far. I think we have to wait to predict this movie. 

The early shows aren't bad but the previews aren't good , at this point it's behind Elemental and Wish , i hope WOM and the fact than Early Shows are passed to accelerate

[TheFlatLannister]

On 10/29/2023 at 5:58 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-23

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
162	587	29762	2.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

13

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-23

 

(1.525x) of Elemental $3.66M Previews *Not adjusted for ATP discount Tuesday* 

 

443 seats sold over 6 showings at MTC1 Disney 

 

*Saturday EA* separate from previews 

114 seats sold over 10 showings 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-22

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
162	599	29762	2.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

12

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-22

 

(1.536x) of Elemental $3.69M Previews *Not adjusted for ATP discount Tuesday* 

 

455 seats sold over 6 showings at MTC1 Disney 

 

*Saturday EA* separate from previews 

124 seats sold over 10 showings 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 10/29/2023 at 5:54 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

Trolls: Band Together 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-18

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
171	297	31233	0.95%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-18

 

EA on Saturday = 263 seats sold 

*EA is separated from Thursday gross 

 

(0.726x) of Elemental $1.74M Previews

COMPS AVG: $1.74M

 

Yeah EA sales are defintely crippling previews here 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

Trolls: Band Together 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-17

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
171	305	31233	0.98%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

8

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-17

 

EA on Saturday = 277 seats sold 

*EA is separated from Thursday gross 

 

(0.726x) of Elemental $1.74M Previews

COMPS AVG: $1.74M