The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TheFlatLannister]

On 10/29/2023 at 6:00 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Marvels 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-11

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
259	2431	52152	4.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

57

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-11

 

(0.432x) of GOTG3~$7.56M Previews

Comps AVG: $7.56M

 

FYI: The Marvels currently trails the Flash in presales. 

Comp: 0.965x of the Flash, however I won't be using it as a comp since MCU films naturally overindex here due to Disney 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Marvels 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
263	2478	52985	4.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

47

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

4

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-10

 

(0.407x) of GOTG3~$7.13M Previews

Comps AVG: $7.13M

 

Terrible day. Slipped massively against comps 

 

[abracadabra1998]

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Thanksgiving (T-17, Day 1, numbers taken around 6 PM CST):

Day: T-17	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	17	31	31	1738	1.78

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		18	18	58.06
Marcus:		0	0	0
Alamo:		9	9	29.03
Other chains:		4	4	12.9

 

Comps (Day 1, not T-17):

0.16x FNAF: $1.61 Million

0.58x The Exorcist: Believer: $1.67 Million

0.61x The Nun II: $1.88 Million

0.51x Saw X: $1.02 Million

 

Not a bad start at all since these are all existing IPs. Not tracking Priscilla this week since I don't think A24 will report those numbers, but eagerly looking at others' data. Hope it does well!

[Giorno]

The Marvels (D-10):

*Counted 7 hours later than usual

 

754 tickets at 10 Houston AMC's/+34 YD

 

Comp:

1.64x Indiana Jones 5 = $11.8m

 

Would have to sell 621 tickets in next 2 days to match where The Flash was  at (D-8)

Edited October 30, 2023 by Giorno

[keysersoze123]

32 minutes ago, Giorno said:

The Marvels (D-10):

*Counted 7 hours later than usual

 

754 tickets at 10 Houston AMC's/+34 YD

 

Comp:

1.64x Indiana Jones 5 = $11.8m

 

Would have to sell 621 tickets in next 2 days to match where The Flash was  at (D-8)

[filmlover]

Priscilla is expanding to 1,000+ theaters this weekend while The Holdovers will expand to 60, according to Deadline.

[keysersoze123]

The Wish MTC1

Early Shows(11/18) - 804/22061 8377.12 188 shows

Previews (11/21) - 4387/212577 66486.57 1306

 

Not much of a growth from last update. Its doing better than Trolls in previews but overall Trolls has sold more tickets(duh as early shows are 5 days later). I wonder how the BO will be between these 2 movies. I think Wish has the edge but they may not be that far off here.

[charlie Jatinder]

26 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

The Wish MTC1

Early Shows(11/18) - 804/22061 8377.12 188 shows

Previews (11/21) - 4387/212577 66486.57 1306

 

Not much of a growth from last update. Its doing better than Trolls in previews but overall Trolls has sold more tickets(duh as early shows are 5 days later). I wonder how the BO will be between these 2 movies. I think Wish has the edge but they may not be that far off here.

for these, I think Friday and Saturday are bigger day in presales. In minitc2 surely.

 

remember Frozen 2 opening in similar weekend frame as Trolls.

Edited October 31, 2023 by charlie Jatinder

[Porthos]

 

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	189	26320	27571	1251	4.54%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

46

 

T-11 Comps:

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	55.85		83	2240		0/96	13301/15541	14.41%		6409	19.52%		6.00m
GOTG3	32.22		111	3883		0/203	25171/29054	13.36%		10750	11.64%		5.64m
TLM	67.15		129	1863		0/154	20858/22721	8.20%		6561	19.07%		6.92m
AtSV	55.67		93	2247		0/129	18539/20786	10.81%		9744	12.84%		9.67m
Flash	91.31		60	1370		0/178	23778/25148	5.45%		5327	23.48%		8.86m
Indy 5	87.91		70	1423		0/128	18818/20241	7.03%		4767	26.24%		6.33m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:       192/8601  [2.23% sold]
Matinee:    45/2548  [1.77% | 3.60% of all tickets sold]
3D:             75/5039  [1.49% | 6.00% of all tickets sold]

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	189	26310	27628	1318	4.77%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

67

 

T-10 Comps:

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	55.75		124	2364		0/96	13177/15541	15.21%		6409	20.56%		5.99m
GOTG3	32.66		153	4036		0/205	25321/29357	13.75%		10750	12.26%		5.71m
TLM	65.74		142	2005		0/153	20609/22614	8.87%		6561	20.09%		6.77m
AtSV	54.89		154	2401		0/129	18385/20786	11.55%		9744	13.53%		9.53m
Flash	92.23		59	1429		0/178	23719/25148	5.68%		5327	24.74%		8.95m
Indy 5	85.75		114	1537		0/134	19034/20571	7.47%		4767	27.65%		6.17m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     206/8596  [2.40% sold]
Matinee:    52/2546  [2.04% | 3.95% of all tickets sold]
3D:            79/5008  [1.58% | 5.99% of all tickets sold]

Edited October 31, 2023 by Porthos

[Grand Cine]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

The Wish MTC1

Early Shows(11/18) - 804/22061 8377.12 188 shows

Previews (11/21) - 4387/212577 66486.57 1306

 

Not much of a growth from last update. Its doing better than Trolls in previews but overall Trolls has sold more tickets(duh as early shows are 5 days later). I wonder how the BO will be between these 2 movies. I think Wish has the edge but they may not be that far off here.

 

I take the true tuesday :

 

The good thing is even with the effect discount tuesday : The movie is at +24% to Elemental at T-19 ( with 2 days to increase) and it's already 83% of Elemental T-11 ( with 10 days to increase) so it's really good .

 

I think the movies will be at 4800 seats in T-19 so with a increase of +35% to Elemental at T-19 and with a better pace than him , so we could continue to think he could be a little big hit for Disney

[vafrow]

On 10/30/2023 at 4:43 AM, vafrow said:

 

The Marvels, T-11, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 698

New sales: 12

Growth: 1.7%

Theatres: 9 of 10 

Showtimes: 39

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

No reasonable comps available for regional population

 

Single theatre comp:

0.350x of ATSV for $6.1M

 

% Breakdown of sales (previous breakdown of sales)

 

Late afternoon:  2.7 (2.3)

Early evening: 80.8 (81.3)

Late Evening: 16.5 (16.3)

 

Tickets per showtime:

Late Afternoon: 2.7

Early Evening: 33.2

Late Evening: 7.7

Avg: 17.9

 

I have low expectations for a Sunday evening/Monday morning update generally. This has come below that.

 

 

The Marvels, T-10, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 727

New sales: 29

Growth: 4.2%

Theatres: 10 of 10 

Showtimes: 41

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

No reasonable comps available for regional population

 

Single theatre comp:

0.350x of ATSV for $6.1M

 

% Breakdown of sales (previous breakdown of sales)

 

Late afternoon: 2.6 (2.7)

Early evening: 81.2 (80.8)

Late Evening: 16.2 (16.5)

 

Tickets per showtime:

Late Afternoon: 2.7

Early Evening: 32.8

Late Evening: 7.4

Avg: 17.7

 

Better than yesterday. Still not great.

 

The one theatre that wasn't playing it yet added showtimes. It's odd to add it now, when theyre doing the full schedule update later today.  But they've added full weekend sets, so it makes sense.

 

Speaking of which, we'll find out what type of expansion it gets as the schedule to Thursday is established. At this point, there's little challenge in getting a ticket. Only showtimes near sellout are the smaller, 60 seat VIP auditoriums. But if you want an IMAX or regular screen, there's lots of space. But, it's not like there's a lot of other options for theatres right now, so we'll see.

[TwoMisfits]

CORRECTION: Okay, Hunger Games is putting down their "we're gonna be the Nov GA movie" - they have announced the $5 OFF each ticket TMobile Atom deal - it will come out Nov 7 and be good for any tickets that are presold by the end of opening Sunday (so probably the OW and entire Thanksgiving period, as well)...

 

Edit: I read my email too fast:).  $5 off won't sell nearly as well, but it will be something...originally, I thought it was $5 total...

Edited October 31, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[YM!]

9 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

The Wish MTC1

Early Shows(11/18) - 804/22061 8377.12 188 shows

Previews (11/21) - 4387/212577 66486.57 1306

 

Not much of a growth from last update. Its doing better than Trolls in previews but overall Trolls has sold more tickets(duh as early shows are 5 days later). I wonder how the BO will be between these 2 movies. I think Wish has the edge but they may not be that far off here.

Think 2-2.5M previews would be a good range for both Trolls and Wish. If they did those, using Bad Guys multiple of 20x (not the best comparison for Trolls but it’s mid level Dreamworks outside of summer), that’s 40-50m OW for Trolls (Grinch did 30.5x which would be a perfect comparison but that was 2018 but if weekend days show strength it’s possible).
 

As for Wish, using Encanto/SW average of 25x as that feels fair accounting for hypothetically not being as bad as SW but also having EA previews and 3pm start, that’s a 50-63m five day. Both results would be good for them. Feel for 60m though, would like above 3M previews with EA.

Edited October 31, 2023 by YM!

[keysersoze123]

On 10/29/2023 at 10:08 PM, keysersoze123 said:

 

The Marvels MTC1

Previews(T-11) -  49583/697194 984727.53 3559 shows +1128

Friday - 30395/1046399 577044.05 5317 shows +2195

 

Not bad at all. Friday growth is impressive. This could be the turn around. 

 

 

The Marvels MTC1

Previews(T-10) - 50991/699168 1011627.95 3572 shows +1408

Friday - 31750/1047549 601975.52 5323 shows +1355

 

whatever we saw for Friday yesterday was an anomaly. Previews are however going up. Let us see where things are by Friday. Not much on daily pace which is under half what Guardians 3 did for both days. Overall number is also well under half of Guardians and that had great WOM and so it did better than what the number indicated. We have to see what happens for Marvels next week. 

[el sid]

Surprisingly low number for Priscilla in other reports 🤔.
But the other two new releases will struggle way more , at least judging from my theaters.

The Marsh King's Daughter had yesterday 13 sold tickets for Thursday, in 4 theaters.
Comps (all three movies counted on Monday of the release week for Thursday): Expend4bles (750k from previews) had 130 sold tickets,
Plane (435k) had 89
and Copshop (?) had 18.
Freelance (?) had on Sunday = 1 day earlier, on Sunday, 16 sold tickets.

And for Friday it had yesterday 14 sold tickets, again in 4 theaters.
Comps (all four films counted on Monday of the release week for Friday): Expend4bles (8M OW) had 135 sold tickets,
Plane (10.3M) had 83,

The Protégé (2.9M) had 32
and Copshop (2.3M) had 11.
The Rhythm Section (2.7M OW) had on Wednesday = 2 days later 104 sold tickets.

[filmlover]

18 minutes ago, el sid said:

Surprisingly low number for Priscilla in other reports 🤔

tbh I haven't seen much marketing for it even though it's one of the few movies this fall to receive a SAG-AFTRA interim agreement for promotion. A24 is dumping it, methinks.

[Mojoguy]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

tbh I haven't seen much marketing for it even though it's one of the few movies this fall to receive a SAG-AFTRA interim agreement for promotion. A24 is dumping it, methinks.

I don't think people want to watch a movie showing Elvis in a negative light, especially after the last Elvis movie did so well and left his ending in a good place.

Edited October 31, 2023 by Mojoguy

[el sid]

What Happens Later had yesterday 22 sold tickets for Thursday (4 theaters).
Comps (both counted for Thursday): Book Club: The Next Chapter had on the same day, Monday of the release week, 25 sold tickets
and 80 for Brady had on Tuesday = 1 day later 120 sold tickets.

And for Friday it had yesterday 12 sold tickets, again in 4 theaters.
Comps (both counted for Friday): Book Club: The Next Chapter (6.7M OW) had on the same day, Monday of the release week, 16 sold tickets
and 80 for Brady (12.7M) had again on Tuesday = 1 day later 91 sold tickets.

 

Idk. Too uneven from the comps to guess anything. But of course 1-2 dozen sold tickets are not great.

 

[jeffthehat]

23 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

 

The Marvels T-10 (4 days of sales)

 

Coverage - 10/33 Malco theaters

Show count - 32

Seats sold - 488

Total seats - 6048

% sold - 8.1%

New sales - 27 (+5.9%)

4-day average of new sales - 6.75 tickets/day

Comp

 

0.11x Eras Fri T-10 = $4.08m / $2.21m ATP adjusted (-45%)*

*shitty comp, only watching the pace 

---

 

Still pacing alongside Eras here. But think Eras growth was higher in this sample than others. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Marvels T-9 

 

Coverage - 10 Malco Theaters

Show count - 32

Seats sold - 509

Total seats - 6048

% sold - 8.4%

New sales - 21 (+4.3%)

 

Comp

 

0.12x Eras Fri T-9 = $4.12m / $2.27m ATP adjusted (-45%)*

*shitty comp, only watching the pace 

---

 

Think I undercounted a theater by 10 tickets yesterday, so that's part of the growth. 

[Giorno]

The Marvels (D-9):

 

780 tickets sold at 10 Houston AMC's/+26 YD

 

Comps:

1.238 x MI7 (no EA) = $8.67m

1.618x Indiana Jones 5 = $11.65m

 

 

[keysersoze123]

12 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

for these, I think Friday and Saturday are bigger day in presales. In minitc2 surely.

 

remember Frozen 2 opening in similar weekend frame as Trolls.

Friday will be big and saturday should be close to friday. Slightly up from friday most probably. I just looked at friday and there is nothing about it that screams big either. 

 

The Wish MTC1 Friday - 3241/427607 43289.49 2580 shows

 

Less than Tuesday number from yesterday. I think this will bloom only close to release.