The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

The Marvels MTC1

Previews(T-10) - 50991/699168 1011627.95 3572 shows +1408

Friday - 31750/1047549 601975.52 5323 shows +1355

 

whatever we saw for Friday yesterday was an anomaly. Previews are however going up. Let us see where things are by Friday. Not much on daily pace which is under half what Guardians 3 did for both days. Overall number is also well under half of Guardians and that had great WOM and so it did better than what the number indicated. We have to see what happens for Marvels next week. 

The Marvels MTC1

Previews(T-9) - 52268/699149 1039931.64 3572 shows +1277

Friday - 33149/1048128 633588.95 5327 shows +1399

 

This is where lack of catalyst come to bite it. Instead of growth, its flat lining at this point. Let us see how it goes rest of the week. 

[jeffthehat]

22 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

 

The Marvels T-9 

 

Coverage - 10 Malco Theaters

Show count - 32

Seats sold - 509

Total seats - 6048

% sold - 8.4%

New sales - 21 (+4.3%)

 

Comp

 

0.12x Eras Fri T-9 = $4.12m / $2.27m ATP adjusted (-45%)*

*shitty comp, only watching the pace 

---

 

Think I undercounted a theater by 10 tickets yesterday, so that's part of the growth. 

 

The Marvels T-8

 

Coverage - 10 Malco theaters

Show count - 31 (-1)

Seats sold - 510

Total seats - 6048

% sold - 8.4%

New sales - 1 (+0.2%)

 

Comp 

 

0.11x Eras Fri T-8 = $4.01m / $2.2m ATP adjusted (-45%)*

*shitty comp, only watching the pace 

---

 

Lost a show with no sales. Ran the script twice. Halloween played a role. But... yikes. 

[M37]

17 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The Holdovers is going wide on the 10th, Saltburn and Dream Scenario are going wide on Thanksgiving weekend. Next Goal Wins is also opening wide on 11/17. Real battle for screen space.

I was gong off Mojo's calendar, but looks like they didn't update Holdovers after they pushed it up a few weeks, so you're correct. And yeah, I didn't mention the others by name, because quite frankly I haven't been keeping tabs on the specialty market ... which is basically non-existent at this point. They'll absolutely take up screen space, particularly in the larger markets, but I'm not expecting much in returns, sadly

[Grand Cine]

i think the next three weeks to come will be a battle for screen , and more than the battle in June which it was a bloddy battle yet . Good luck for the studios, and also the theatres which have PLF

[filmlover]

9 minutes ago, M37 said:

I was gong off Mojo's calendar, but looks like they didn't update Holdovers after they pushed it up a few weeks, so you're correct. And yeah, I didn't mention the others by name, because quite frankly I haven't been keeping tabs on the specialty market ... which is basically non-existent at this point. They'll absolutely take up screen space, particularly in the larger markets, but I'm not expecting much in returns, sadly

I think Saltburn could do alright. Amazon/MGM have been pushing it and there's a potential young demo for a Talented Mr. Ripley-esque thriller. Won't be one of the biggest movies of the holidays but can see it pulling Bottoms numbers (making it one of the brighter spots for the specialty market in the post-pandemic era).

[Boxofficerules]

Thanksgiving is going to get buried isn't it.

[M37]

7 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I think Saltburn could do alright. Amazon/MGM have been pushing it and there's a potential young demo for a Talented Mr. Ripley-esque thriller. Won't be one of the biggest movies of the holidays but can see it pulling Bottoms numbers (making it one of the brighter spots for the specialty market in the post-pandemic era).

I mean, if the bar for success is like $10M domestic, then sure.  But we've had 4 re-releases this year gross over $7M (Titanic, Nightmare, Jedi, Coraline), and frankly that's just not a BO$ level I pay much attention to (even though I will personally probably watch a least of few of these). The gap between a streaming production - with sunk cost of subscription - and these low level specialty releases is so small, that there is just not a large enough audience willing to pay for them individually

 

But again, for tracking purposes, they will absolutely still get screens and add to the crowding over the Thanksgiving week

[filmlover]

28 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Thanksgiving is going to get buried isn't it.

Aside from Krampus, have horror-themed holiday movies ever found much of an audience in theaters? The crowd for these movies have always been more inclined to catch them at home.

[Grand Cine]

36 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

The Marvels MTC1

Previews(T-9) - 52268/699149 1039931.64 3572 shows +1277

Friday - 33149/1048128 633588.95 5327 shows +1399

 

This is where lack of catalyst come to bite it. Instead of growth, its flat lining at this point. Let us see how it goes rest of the week. 

I will take the comparaison as i could , i don't find for Super heros Movies this year but we can take Shang Chi- Eternals because The Marvels are the closest ( MTC1)

 

Shang Chi ( Thursday) : 44260/345692 752468.52 1756 shows

Shang Chi ( Friday) - 31256/706241 518779.60 3404 shows

Eternals Previews(T-7) - 78408/395727 1355795.22 2073 shows

Eternals Friday(T-8) - 59699/731665 1033139.25 3633 shows

 

So with two days to come to compare with Eternals  :

 

Around 80% for previews of Eternals  : 7,6 Million

Around 2/3 of Eternals for Friday : around 14 million

Comp for Shang Chi :

 

Thursday : 12,1M

Friday : 25,2M

 

The first problem for The Marvels is the fact that The Shang Chi comp will go down , and the second is like @keysersoze123 said is The Friday is very lower in comparaison to Thursday so maybe a good jump Friday/Saturday due to Veteran Day but it's not good . I will take (almost) the middle of the two and i think 8,5M-9M for previews and 17-18M for Friday so maybe 60-65M for the opening week AT THIS POINT . I'm more optimistic than many persons, and maybe more a prediction of the 55-60M range but i don't think at this point the movie will make less than 50 million but if the final week isn't good maybe yes .

[Bob Train]

9 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Aside from Krampus, have horror-themed holiday movies ever found much of an audience in theaters? The crowd for these movies have always been more inclined to catch them at home.

Thanksgiving seems appealing to the Gen Z crowd which has driven most of the horror movies this year to respectable numbers. I worry it may be released too close to Freddy's (not that they really have much choice in terms of release date) but I think it could be the VIolent Night of this year

[Giorno]

The Marvels (D-8):

 

815 tickets (10 AMC's in Houston)/+35 YD

 

Comp:

 

0.593x The Flash = $5.75m

 

 

[keysersoze123]

Marvels MTC2 previews - 19314/502662 3618 shows

 

Its worse than Shang Chi here. no $ value as I am having issues for certain shows. Eternals(T-6) was at 42801 and so its not even in the same ballpark. Guardians was more than 4x this number !!! MTC1 is the one carrying the weight here. 

[vafrow]

Dumb question,

 

Is Eras Tour done after this coming weekend? When it was first announced, it was a four week engagement, but they had language indicating that it could get extended.

 

For MTC4, it doesn't look like it has any further dates left beyond this weekend, despite full schedules up to November 9th up. I wasn't sure if any US based chains are extending it though.

 

With Marvels not selling well, it would be easy to make space in larger theatres for another week at least, but, I can see the benefit of making it a limited run, and then focus on the streaming release.

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

Priscilla T-2: 34.58% Awareness

The Holdovers T-9: 14.96%

Napoleon T-21: 24.11%

The Boy and the Heron T-37: 15.31%

Poor Things T-37: 14.66%

The Book of Clarence T-72: 17.6%

Mickey 17 T-149: 6.36%

Inside Out 2 T-226: 36.05%

 

Journey to Bethlehem T-9: 20.76% Awareness

Final Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 12% chance of 10M

 

The Marvels T-9: 58.26% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 91% chance of 20M, 69% chance of 30M, 35% chance of 40M, 26% chance of 50M, 17% chance of 60M, 13% chance of 90M, 9% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 80% chance of 60M, 60% chance of 90M, 40% chance of 100M

[M37]

48 minutes ago, vafrow said:

Dumb question,

 

Is Eras Tour done after this coming weekend? When it was first announced, it was a four week engagement, but they had language indicating that it could get extended.

 

For MTC4, it doesn't look like it has any further dates left beyond this weekend, despite full schedules up to November 9th up. I wasn't sure if any US based chains are extending it though.

 

With Marvels not selling well, it would be easy to make space in larger theatres for another week at least, but, I can see the benefit of making it a limited run, and then focus on the streaming release.

It will probably be treated like any other release, being kept where it’s doing well, and pulled where it’s not. But no more advance sales weeks in advance 

[vafrow]

10 minutes ago, M37 said:

It will probably be treated like any other release, being kept where it’s doing well, and pulled where it’s not. But no more advance sales weeks in advance 

 

But in the case up here, if it was getting a Thursday to Sunday release like it has had, those Thursday showtimes would be locked in by now. And there doesn't appear to be the case.

 

It could transition to being a simple friday to Sunday release still, but, it would be odd to change that at this stage, other than it buys the theatre chain some time. 

 

Mind you, with how this release has gone, it would be funny for Swift to sell this coming weekend as the final chance to see it in theatres, and then immediately announce an extension.

[M37]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

 

But in the case up here, if it was getting a Thursday to Sunday release like it has had, those Thursday showtimes would be locked in by now. And there doesn't appear to be the case.

 

It could transition to being a simple friday to Sunday release still, but, it would be odd to change that at this stage, other than it buys the theatre chain some time. 

 

Mind you, with how this release has gone, it would be funny for Swift to sell this coming weekend as the final chance to see it in theatres, and then immediately announce an extension.

Generally, booking commitments are Thur-Wed, in that whatever a theater is dropping for Fri they can also cancel for Thursday preview shows. So it wouldn’t make sense to book the Thursday ERAS shows - yes technically the same week - if they aren’t holding it for the weekend 

 

But may also move to just Fri-Sun shows going forward (and even Wed-Sun for TG week) given the scale/volume of actual Thursday previews in November 

Edited November 1, 2023 by M37

[Porthos]

So what are we thinking about for initial comps for Songbirds?  I happen to have FB3 as a comparison, but unfortunately the FB franchise is notorious for over performing here in Sacramento.  Then again, case could be made that Songbirds might also tend to over perform here being a prequel to a fan-driven YA title, though I'm loathe to draw too many conclusions from a sample size of 2.

 

(Then again TLM also over performed locally and if I sorta squint really hard I can see some parallels between it and the YA market, especially one that has a nostalgia hook)

 

Still, aside from FB3 whadda some ideas for Day 1s?  Given how frontloaded FB3 turned out to be, FB3 is a good "Bad Cop" comp.  But would like some "Good Cop" or even Neutral Cop suggestions.

 

Even if I don't decide to track it, discussion might be good for those with recent-ish movies.

[keysersoze123]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

So what are we thinking about for initial comps for Songbirds?  I happen to have FB3 as a comparison, but unfortunately the FB franchise is notorious for over performing here in Sacramento.  Then again, case could be made that Songbirds might also tend to over perform here being a prequel to a fan-driven YA title, though I'm loathe to draw too many conclusions from a sample size of 2.

 

(Then again TLM also over performed locally and if I sorta squint really hard I can see some parallels between it and the YA market, especially one that has a nostalgia hook)

 

Still, aside from FB3 whadda some ideas for Day 1s?  Given how frontloaded FB3 turned out to be, FB3 is a good "Bad Cop" comp.  But would like some "Good Cop" or even Neutral Cop suggestions.

 

Even if I don't decide to track it, discussion might be good for those with recent-ish movies.

Why not Marvels. Both are female driven action movie and also franchise movie releasing this close to each other. I know HG and MCU are not comparable and we are having 1st movie from this franchise in a long time. Still that is one to look at for sure. 

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Why not Marvels. Both are female driven action movie and also franchise movie releasing this close to each other.

 

 

When the question is answered within the next couple of sentences

 

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I know HG and MCU are not comparable 

 

😛 

 

===

 

More seriously we don't have a preview number for The Marvels yet, even if we have a decent range.   And, frankly, I'd rather not look at a film which is an outlier for its genre/series as there are usually a long list of reasons why it is an outlier.  Plus we still don't know how it'll finish so it's utility today is somewhat limited.  

 

I do understand the point you're making. But I also think you're playing with fire a bit given the overall mood surrounding The Marvels.  I suppose there are worse D1 to D1 com... overviews to make.

 

At the same time not sure I want to invite a The Marvels v Songbirds commentary in this thread given how the other Marvels threads are going today.

 

(I know I know, it's inevitable — doesn't mean I want to encourage it! )