The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[filmlover]

Been sort of kind of monitoring sales of The Marvels at the main popular theaters near me in recent weeks (and also as I start to make my plans to see it this weekend) and while they don't look awful (the main PLF shows are on track to fill up during peak times/hours), they just appear very much lacking compared to previous MCU movies. Reviews will ultimately make or break its chances at a too underwhelming opening IMO.

 

One thing I have noticed that really sticks out is that the later shows are completely empty, which is a definite contrast to previous MCU movies, indicating the die-hards are just not really here for this. Really curious to see what the demo breakdown is for this over the weekend (the trailers that are being released in time for obvious attachment with this - Gosling/Blunt-led The Fall Guy from Universal, Paramount has a proper trailer for Mean Girls being released shortly - suggests females are definitely expected to be the largest demo) more than anything else.

[YM!]

10 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Been sort of kind of monitoring sales of The Marvels at the main popular theaters near me in recent weeks (and also as I start to make my plans to see it this weekend) and while they don't look awful (the main PLF shows are on track to fill up during peak times/hours), they just appear very much lacking compared to previous MCU movies. Reviews will ultimately make or break its chances at a too underwhelming opening IMO.

 

One thing I have noticed that really sticks out is that the later shows are completely empty, which is a definite contrast to previous MCU movies, indicating the die-hards are just not really here for this. Really curious to see what the demo breakdown is for this over the weekend (the trailers that are being released in time for obvious attachment with this - Gosling/Blunt-led The Fall Guy from Universal, Paramount has a proper trailer for Mean Girls being released shortly - suggests females are definitely expected to be the largest demo) more than anything else.

Apes is an attachment but should be the only one from Disney. Can see IO2 trailer being one if they have to have two, because a trailer for that is ready.

 

Madame Web and Mickey17, a new Dune 2 trailer, maybe Ghostbusters?

[el sid]

Godzilla Minus One, counted today for Wednesday, November 29 had 257 sold tickets in 3 theaters (the AMCs in NY, Miami and San Francisco).
Comp: Death on the Nile finally had 179 sold tickets, also in 3 theaters (the AMCs in Miami, San Francisco and LA).

Thanksgiving has now 119 sold tickets for Thursday, November 16. 10 days left.
Comps: The Invitation (775k from previews) had on Monday of the release week (7 days left for Thanksgiving to increase the margin) 96 sold tickets
and M3gan (2.75M) had also with 3 days left 274 sold tickets.
Saw X (2M) had with 5 days left 314
and The Nun II (3.1M) had also with 5 days left 289 sold tickets.

Quite good for the moment but its jumps in the next few days will be more telling.

[filmlover]

7 minutes ago, YM! said:

Apes is an attachment but should be the only one from Disney. Can see IO2 trailer being one if they have to have two, because a trailer for that is ready.

 

Madame Web and Mickey17, a new Dune 2 trailer, maybe Ghostbusters?

Since it comes out in two weeks, Wish is probably Disney's other Marvels attachment (unlikely any of the Searchlight movies are).

 

Madame Web and Mickey 17 are likely on the move given we've seen nothing from them 3-4 months from current release dates.

[vafrow]

17 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Been sort of kind of monitoring sales of The Marvels at the main popular theaters near me in recent weeks (and also as I start to make my plans to see it this weekend) and while they don't look awful (the main PLF shows are on track to fill up during peak times/hours), they just appear very much lacking compared to previous MCU movies. Reviews will ultimately make or break its chances at a too underwhelming opening IMO.

 

One thing I have noticed that really sticks out is that the later shows are completely empty, which is a definite contrast to previous MCU movies, indicating the die-hards are just not really here for this. Really curious to see what the demo breakdown is for this over the weekend (the trailers that are being released in time for obvious attachment with this - Gosling/Blunt-led The Fall Guy from Universal, Paramount has a proper trailer for Mean Girls being released shortly - suggests females are definitely expected to be the largest demo) more than anything else.

 

With late evening shows being a function of how full the early evening shows are, it's not too much of a surprise.

 

For some perspective, at at T-4 for FNAF, the ratio of early to late show sales was 3.06x in my area. For Marvels, its 4.01x.

 

Fnaf was kid heavy as well.

 

As for Marvels and your comparison to other MCU films, Marvels is also one of the shortest films in the franchise. It should be an easier sell for someone to see a late show.

 

[jeffthehat]

23 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

 

The Marvels T-4

 

Coverage - 10/33 Malco theaters

Show count - 31

Seats sold - 584

Total seats - 6048

% sold - 10.3%

New sales - 28 (+4.8%)

 

Comp 

 

0.125x Eras Fri T-4 = $4.36m / $2.4m ATP adjusted (-45%)*

*shitty comp, only watching the pace 

 

Friday T-5

 

Show count - 65

Seats sold - 451

New sales - 42 (+10.2%)

 

.77x Thu

---

 

A little more life today. 

 

The Marvels T-3

 

Coverage - 10/33 Malco theaters

Show count - 31

Seats sold - 616

Total seats - 6048

% sold - 10.2%

New sales - 32 (+5.5%)

 

Growth

 

T-14 to T-9: 48 tickets sold (+10.4%)

T-9 to T-7: 6 tickets sold (+1.1%)

T-7 to T-3: 101 tickets sold (+19.6%)

 

 

[Tinalera]

11 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

This is Turtles erasu...

 

...

 

Wait.  The series would have had to been popular in the first place to actually 'recover' wouldn't it?

.

 

 

I withdraw my objection. 

 

(I actually agree with you, but I do think TMNT's success this year came out of effin' nowhere)

I think the stop-motion animation style really gave TMNT that notice to people as something different, and of it course it being TMNT

[jeffthehat]

On 11/5/2023 at 8:46 AM, jeffthehat said:

 

Hunger Games BoSS T-11

 

Coverage - 10/33 Malco theaters

Show count - 20

Seats sold - 154

Total seats - 2680

% sold - 5.7%

New sales - 6 (+4.05%)

 

Comp 

 

.492x Marvels T-11 = ??

---

 

Sold the same # of seats as Marvels on T-11. 

 

 

Hunger Games BoSS T-10

 

Coverage - 10/33 Malco theaters

Show count - 20

Seats sold - 191

Total seats - 2680

% sold - 7.12%

New sales - 37 (+24%)

 

Comp 

 

.586x Marvels T-10 = ??

---

 

Excellent day. Sold more tickets than Marvels did today lol 

 

 

Edited November 6, 2023 by jeffthehat

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

The Marvels MTC1

Previews(T-5) - 60748/706676 1198149.98 3619 shows +2326

Friday - 42719/1051815 806266.77 5350 shows +3247

 

Friday was couple of hours more than norm but good news is Saturday(T-5) did not slow down but its starting its final ramp. Let us how Sunday goes. Every movie goes up 50-60% on its final sunday.  

The Marvels MTC1

Previews(T-4) - 64465/708181 1266710.99 3630 shows +3717

Friday - 47657/1053420 893211.29 5361 shows +4938

 

its definitely moving as we approach the final week. 

 

Eternals(T-4) pace - 4531 // sold another 94493

Flash(T-4) - 4622 // sold more than 100K from here onwards

Ant 3(T-4) - 7576 // +129219

 

If it accelerates like Eternals did and it can do even better as it has new catalysts while Eternals had none. I am thinking it should come close to 140K finish. Flash's pace would be even better but Eternals seems better bet. Another movie is Ant-man. That wont look that good as its looking at slightly under 130K finish. So somewhere in 6.5 to low 7s depending on how the pace goes this week. 

 

 

 

[TheFlatLannister]

14 hours ago, Hypercortical said:

Hey, I wanna scrape some pre-sale data in my area. Are there any tracking standards I should know about? Like I see people post data with a region listed. If I just scrape all the theaters that Fandango lists when I search for showing "near [insert city/state/whatever]" is that good enough? And if anyone has any recommendations on break durations to avoid rate limiting, I'd love to hear it. 

I have my scraper set roughly to 20 sec retrieval intervals to avoid detection. Seems to work for me, just takes a bit long to collect data from 100+ showings 

[keysersoze123]

I did not post commentary for Friday but Marvels is doing way worse compared to thursday.

Eternals(T-5) - 6500 pace/73877 // finished at 343722

 

Eternals actually added 12234 on its Monday for Friday. For some reason it had dramatic acceleration today. Currently Marvels is tracking 2/3rd of Eternals but current pace is around low 70s. Assuming it can do 80% rest of the run it can finish at 262K. Should be sufficient for 16-17m true friday. That should lead to mid 50s OW. @M37 what do you think?

 

[Relevation]

Tickets are now on sale for Napoleon

[TheFlatLannister]

19 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Tickets are now on sale for Napoleon

I’m expecting a robust start to sales then it will taper off fast as demand burns off. Similar trend as KoTFM 

[M37]

53 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I did not post commentary for Friday but Marvels is doing way worse compared to thursday.

Eternals(T-5) - 6500 pace/73877 // finished at 343722

 

Eternals actually added 12234 on its Monday for Friday. For some reason it had dramatic acceleration today. Currently Marvels is tracking 2/3rd of Eternals but current pace is around low 70s. Assuming it can do 80% rest of the run it can finish at 262K. Should be sufficient for 16-17m true friday. That should lead to mid 50s OW. @M37 what do you think?

 

Again, Eternals was catching up from the Halloween weekend slump in sales 

 

My current MTC1 final target is more like 120K

[Relevation]

20 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I’m expecting a robust start to sales then it will taper off fast as demand burns off. Similar trend as KoTFM 

I think a potential X factor here is that Napoleon will probably get a period of actor promo assuming the SAG strike ends soon, a luxury not granted to KotFM 

 

Averaging out the 5-day IMs for House of Gucci (16.92x) and Devotion (14.92x) and this is probably looking at a 15.8-16.0x IM off Tuesday 

 

Soooooo if this is running even with KOTFM ($2.6M) then imo that is pretty damn good, should be able to get around a $41-42M 5-day with that

[keysersoze123]

10 minutes ago, M37 said:

Again, Eternals was catching up from the Halloween weekend slump in sales 

 

My current MTC1 final target is more like 120K

Ok. That would be really soft finish. It will see huge surge on the day of reactions/reviews. Eternals already had that catalyst. But you can never say for sure. 

 

That said I was wondering more on Friday. But if thursday finishes at 120K, friday presales finish would be even worse and it could finish with just low 200kish which would probably make 13m friday big struggle. Then even 45m OW will not happen. Let us see how things go. 

[Mojoguy]

When is doomsday numbers confirmed for Marvels?

 

Tuesday? When theaters list full weekend showings, and we see how empty/full they are?

[keysersoze123]

24 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

When is doomsday numbers confirmed for Marvels?

 

Tuesday? When theaters list full weekend showings, and we see how empty/full they are?

I think its as late as wednesday when we see impact of social media reactions/reviews. Either it goes up HUGE or its DOA. 

[Giorno]

The Marvels (D-3):

 

1,051 tickets at 10 Houston AMC's/+79 YD

 

Comps:

 

0.55x The Flash = $5.33m

 

0.86x Black Adam = $6.54m

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

The Holdovers T-4: 16.19% Awareness

Godzilla Minus One T-25: 20.46%

The Iron Claw T-46: 17.7%

 

Journey to Bethlehem T-4: 23.48% Awareness

Final Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 12% chance of 10M

 

The Marvels T-4: 60.38% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 94% chance of 50M, 81% chance of 60M, 62% chance of 70M, 44% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 50M, 75% chance of 100M

 

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes T-11: 53.03% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 91% chance of 20M, 69% chance of 30M, 30% chance of 40M, 26% chance of 50M, 17% chance of 60M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 67% chance of 40M, 33% chance of 50M

 

Thanksgiving T-11: 40.15% Awareness

Final Awareness: 85% chance of 10M, 56% chance of 20M, 32% chance of 30M, 20% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 71% chance of 20M, 29% chance of 40M

 

Trolls Band Together T-11: 51.61% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 91% chance of 20M, 69% chance of 30M, 30% chance of 40M, 26% chance of 50M, 17% chance of 60M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 20M

 

Next Goal Wins T-11: 17.22% Awareness

Final Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

 

Night Swim T-60: 19.57% Awareness

Final Awareness: 29% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 40% chance of 10M