The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[HummingLemon496]

3 minutes ago, Relevation said:

$45M OS and $35M DOM for an $80M launch seems feasible imo

[Hypercortical]

Hey, I wanna scrape some pre-sale data in my area. Are there any tracking standards I should know about? Like I see people post data with a region listed. If I just scrape all the theaters that Fandango lists when I search for showing "near [insert city/state/whatever]" is that good enough? And if anyone has any recommendations on break durations to avoid rate limiting, I'd love to hear it. 

[Zakiyyah6]

The cast not being able to market the film does not explain the pre-sales being as terrible as they are. If the cast mattered that much then why didn't Five Nights At Freddy's flop? 

[abracadabra1998]

On 11/3/2023 at 12:24 AM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Previews:

 

The Marvels (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	123	206	1238	21847	5.67

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		917	139	74.07
MTC1:		666	143	53.8
Marcus:		144	26	11.63
Alamo:		85	-7	6.87
Other chains:		343	44	27.71

 

Figured out that some Alamo tickets were blocked off seats, hence the drop there.

 

Comps:

0.59x Oppenheimer: $6.15 Million

0.93x Mission Impossible 7 (w/ EA): $8.37 Million

1.43x Indiana Jones 5: $10.3 Million

0.99x FNAF: $10.23 Million

 

Average: $8.76 Million

 

Doing better here than in most other places, but it's a matter of bad comps imo. Will keep dropping with its bad pace

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Previews:

 

The Marvels (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	123	145	1387	21847	6.35

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		991	74	71.45
MTC1:		740	74	53.35
Marcus:		160	16	11.54
Alamo:		102	17	7.35
Other chains:		385	38	27.76

 

Comps:

0.52x Oppenheimer: $5.42 Million

1.02x Mission Impossible 7 (switching to just Tuesday): $7.16 Million

1.15x Indiana Jones 5: $8.31 Million

0.84x FNAF: $8.67 Million

 

Average: $7.39 Million

 

Free fall continues, late to the party but Minneapolis will be down there in the 6 previews in no time

Edited November 6, 2023 by abracadabra1998

[Belakor]

Just now, Zakiyyah6 said:

The cast not being able to market the film does not explain the pre-sales being as terrible as they are. If the cast mattered that much then why didn't Five Nights At Freddy's flop? 

Because GA wanted to see that Movie, no one outside hardcore Marvel fans want to pay for mediocre products, not with SH fatigue kickin' in really fast.

[Hypercortical]

5 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Previews:

 

The Marvels (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	123	145	1387	21847	6.35

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		991	74	71.45
MTC1:		740	74	53.35
Marcus:		160	16	11.54
Alamo:		102	17	7.35
Other chains:		385	38	27.76

 

Comps:

0.52x Oppenheimer: $5.42 Million

1.02x Mission Impossible 7 (switching to just Tuesday): $7.16 Million

1.15x Indiana Jones 5: $8.31 Million

0.84x FNAF: $8.67 Million

 

Average: $7.39 Million

 

Free fall continues, late to the party but Minneapolis will be down there in the 6 previews in no time

What do the multipliers mean?

[MovieMan89]

Still don’t think a THG prequel in 2023 can go above a 45 OW, but would love to be wrong for the sake of the box office 

[interiorgatordecorator]

33 minutes ago, Relevation said:

$45M OS and $35M DOM for an $80M launch seems feasible imo

 

charlie said 65m os

cant see him being off by that much (for your 45 to happen)

if it misses 100 its probably be with something like 40 dom and 59.99 os

Edited November 6, 2023 by interiorgatordecorator

[abracadabra1998]

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Journey to Bethlehem (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	42	38	38	4030	0.94

 

Comps:

0.22x After Death: $89k

0.475x Big Fat Greek Wedding 3: $261k

0.19x Asteroid City: $207k

 

I... thought this would be worth it for some reason? Like maybe it would at least be at the level of After Death? Silly me...

 

Updates for other releases (Hunger Games, Trolls, etc.) coming later tonight

[abracadabra1998]

4 minutes ago, Hypercortical said:

What do the multipliers mean?

 

That would be what the Marvels Thursday number of sales is at versus all of those movies. For ex., at T-4, it is sitting at 0.52x (I round to double digits) of what Oppenheimer was at in Minneapolis

[SpiderByte]

18 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

The cast not being able to market the film does not explain the pre-sales being as terrible as they are. If the cast mattered that much then why didn't Five Nights At Freddy's flop? 

Because it cost 20 million dollars. The FNAF cast also doesn't have any big stars. It's not remotely the same.

 

It also absolutely collapsed in the second week because of the absolute God awful reviews.

Edited November 6, 2023 by SpiderByte

[Eric S'ennui]

55 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

There is a horror movie named Thanksgiving coming out and at this point I won’t be shocked if it beats the marvels DOM…

Oh he knows. Literally every day he is asking people about how well Thanksgiving is doing. When will the embargo lift? When will reviews drop? Every day with this dude.

[Relevation]

21 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

charlie said 65m os

cant see him being off by that much (for your 45 to happen)

if it misses 100 its probably be with something like 40 dom and 59.99 os

International presales comps look bad enough to where $65M seems pretty hard imo

 

Also not to diss on Charlie but didn’t he call ATSV at $125M+ INT OW and then it did $88M

[ThomasNicole]

I’m feeling a Rise Of The Beasts with THG, which is good for 100M budget. 
 

Nothing outstanding about it’s sales but it’s consistently solid at this point and showing signs of life, which is good. Help with actors promoting and solid reviews should seal the deal. 
 

Expecting 55ish OW, maybe 60M if everything goes right. 

[Kon]

23 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Because it cost 20 million dollars. The FNAF cast also doesn't have any big stars. It's not remotely the same.

 

It also absolutely collapsed in the second week because of the absolute God awful reviews.

I don't know why FNAF collapsing in the second week is relevant for the argument. The main point was actors promotion doesn't seem so important for FNAF, because it belongs to a popular franchise.

 

It's pretty easy to conclude that movies belonging to franchises wouldn't really be affected by the lack of actors promotion.

 

 

PS: Has The Marvels a big star?

Edited November 6, 2023 by Kon

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Hunger Games Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, T-12, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 118

New sales: 22

Growth: 22.9%

Theatres: 5 out of 5

Showtimes: 19

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

0.331x of Marvels for ??

 

Tickets per showtime analysis (tickets sold/showtimes= tickets per showtime)

Avg: 6.2

 

By timing:

Late Afternoon: 5/3= 1.7

Early Evening: 93/9=10.3

Late Evening: 20/7=2.9

 

By format:

Regular: 5/3=1.7

Dolby: 48/7=6.9

VIP: 29/3=9.7

IMAX: 31/4=7.8

4DX: 5/2=2.5

 

We're far enough in that I thought I'd add the Marvels comp, and it's not looking great. Yes, Marvels isn't going to be the best comp, and Marvels was only dealing with low single digit growth at this stage, so HG:BOSS can narrow the gap if the 20% growth pattern sticks. But, it will likely settle down this week, and hopefully positive reviews will see it finish strong.

 

 

Hunger Games Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, T-11, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 132

New sales: 14

Growth: 11.9%

Theatres: 5 out of 5

Showtimes: 19

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

0.364x of Marvels for ??

 

Tickets per showtime analysis (tickets sold/showtimes= tickets per showtime)

Avg: 6.9

 

By timing:

Late Afternoon: 5/3= 1.7

Early Evening: 105/9=11.7

Late Evening: 22/7=3.1

 

By format:

Regular: 5/3=1.7

Dolby: 56/7=8.0

VIP: 35/3=11.7

IMAX: 31/4=7.8

4DX: 5/2=2.5

 

Growth dropped to low double digits. I'm hoping it's a function of just weekend pull, and that it can maintain high growth over the week.

 

[Arlborn]

44 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

The cast not being able to market the film does not explain the pre-sales being as terrible as they are. If the cast mattered that much then why didn't Five Nights At Freddy's flop? 

Never said it was, just a compounding factor among many of them.

 

I’m curious about purely when compared to HG. Just numbers curiosity regarding how much cast promoting can affect BO.

 

Edited November 6, 2023 by Arlborn

[Zakiyyah6]

37 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Because it cost 20 million dollars. The FNAF cast also doesn't have any big stars. It's not remotely the same.

 

It also absolutely collapsed in the second week because of the absolute God awful reviews.

The budget and second weekend numbers have zero to do with anything. The film opened with a huge 80M without the actors promoting it. The idea that actors strike is knocking 50M off of the The Marvels opening weekend is pure cope. It's not reality. 

[Giorno]

41 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Because it cost 20 million dollars. The FNAF cast also doesn't have any big stars. It's not remotely the same.

 

It also absolutely collapsed in the second week because of the absolute God awful reviews.

It made 80m OW despite being day and date and terrible reviews, marvels is tracking for 50m OW before reviews and being exclusive to theaters and let's not act like the cast of the marvels are movie stars either, nobody in that cast has sold a film based on their name ever 

[Tinalera]

1 hour ago, Hypercortical said:

Hey, I wanna scrape some pre-sale data in my area. Are there any tracking standards I should know about? Like I see people post data with a region listed. If I just scrape all the theaters that Fandango lists when I search for showing "near [insert city/state/whatever]" is that good enough? And if anyone has any recommendations on break durations to avoid rate limiting, I'd love to hear it. 

I do manual counting myself, so admittedly I cant be much help. I am replying to thank you for wanting to join in and contribute with numbers-the more the better. I know there are a some here could definitely help you out-once welcome another counter is always welcome